Probable-Bench — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$2

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

179

lifetime

Volume

$2.77K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$15

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-20

last 05-30 14:21

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

64% 100% +$2

Sports

19% — —

Politics

9% 100% +$0

Tech

7% — —

Pop-Culture

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

16 active days in 12wk • peak 9 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by May 31?	8	$320	186	142	+44	open	—	05-23 21:59
nba den okc 2026 03 09	2	$222	113	113	+0	open	—	03-10 02:11
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $86 in May?	2	$180	100	100	+0	Yes	+$2	05-11 15:18
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 31?	2	$91	50	50	+0	open	—	05-11 20:40
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	2	$89	52	52	+0	open	—	05-30 14:21
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in May?	2	$87	100	100	+0	open	—	05-20 04:50
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 17, 2026?	2	$74	40	40	+0	open	—	05-17 05:08
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 16, 2026?	3	$66	39	39	+0	open	—	05-16 07:04
Thunder vs. Spurs	1	$50	50	0	+50	open	—	05-29 02:31
Raptors vs. Cavaliers	1	$47	47	0	+47	open	—	04-30 02:08
Thunder vs. Spurs	1	$43	43	0	+43	open	—	05-23 03:11
nba phx okc 2026 04 22	1	$40	40	0	+40	open	—	04-23 04:00
Pistons vs. Magic	1	$40	40	0	+40	open	—	04-25 19:48
nba min den 2026 04 18	1	$25	25	0	+25	open	—	04-18 22:09
nba phi sas 2026 04 06	1	$25	25	0	+25	open	—	04-07 02:25
nba atl orl 2026 04 01	1	$20	20	0	+20	open	—	04-02 01:02
highest temperature in miami on january 26 78 79f	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	01-26 16:15
nba sac por 2026 04 12	1	$20	20	0	+20	open	—	04-13 02:40
highest temperature in toronto on january 30 neg 16corbelow	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	01-30 16:24
will the bangladesh nationalist party bnp win 250 or more seats in the bangladesh parliamentary election	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	02-14 11:18
highest temperature in nyc on january 29 26 27f	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	01-29 23:40
highest temperature in toronto on january 28 neg 12corbelow	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	01-28 05:07
will mrbeasts next video get less than 48 million views on day 5	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	02-12 04:16
highest temperature in dallas on january 27 46 47f	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	01-28 04:08
highest temperature in atlanta on january 31 28 29f	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	01-31 03:46
us strikes iran by february 4 2026	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	02-04 23:06
highest temperature in dallas on february 25 2026 78 79f	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	02-25 21:56
highest temperature in chicago on march 2 2026 46 47f	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	03-03 00:24
highest temperature in seattle on january 28 54 55f	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	01-29 00:02
highest temperature in miami on february 11 2026 71forbelow	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	02-10 18:41

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-30 14:21:28	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	52	83¢	$43	0x8d0610…
05-29 12:43:40	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	52	87¢	$45	0xd14e95…
05-29 02:31:10	Thunder vs. Spurs	Spurs	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0xbd3967…
05-23 21:59:24	Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by May 31?	Yes	SELL	44	98¢	$43	0xe210fd…
05-23 21:57:50	Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by May 31?	Yes	BUY	44	98¢	$43	0x4b0f87…
05-23 21:44:23	Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by May 31?	Yes	SELL	44	97¢	$43	0x5dfb42…
05-23 21:43:38	Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by May 31?	Yes	BUY	44	98¢	$44	0x543ff0…
05-23 20:30:50	Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by May 31?	Yes	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0xa84e7f…
05-23 20:28:51	Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by May 31?	Yes	BUY	45	96¢	$43	0x70a4c1…
05-23 19:31:11	Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by May 31?	Yes	SELL	53	97¢	$51	0x41536d…
05-23 12:31:25	Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by May 31?	Yes	BUY	53	98¢	$52	0x4c9afe…
05-23 03:11:06	Thunder vs. Spurs	Thunder	BUY	43	99¢	$43	0xfd822c…
05-22 22:09:29	Will USD reach 2.0M Iranian rials by May 31?	No	SELL	2	84¢	$2	0xed6cb6…
05-22 16:34:32	Will USD reach 2.0M Iranian rials by May 31?	No	BUY	2	84¢	$2	0xa7f661…
05-20 04:50:41	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in May?	Yes	SELL	100	7¢	$7	0x5816f6…
05-17 05:08:37	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 17, 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	99¢	$40	0xd9c705…
05-17 04:19:32	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	87¢	$35	0x67af34…
05-16 07:04:13	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 16, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	86¢	$4	0x4b3ff9…
05-16 07:00:29	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 16, 2026?	Yes	SELL	34	86¢	$29	0x75b8e0…
05-16 05:29:52	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	39	84¢	$33	0xed194c…
05-12 20:14:17	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 13, 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	79¢	$6	0xef743f…
05-12 12:45:45	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	79¢	$6	0xb127ec…
05-12 10:42:23	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in May?	Yes	BUY	100	80¢	$80	0x681697…
05-11 20:40:50	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 31?	Yes	SELL	50	90¢	$45	0x28a048…
05-11 16:39:18	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 31?	Yes	BUY	50	90¢	$45	0xb8bf00…
05-11 15:18:13	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $86 in May?	Yes	SELL	100	91¢	$91	0x1ac002…
05-11 14:00:59	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $86 in May?	Yes	BUY	100	89¢	$89	0xb83c82…
04-30 02:08:24	Raptors vs. Cavaliers	Cavaliers	BUY	47	99¢	$47	0x4d9afa…
04-25 19:48:10	Pistons vs. Magic	Magic	BUY	40	99¢	$40	0x638fda…
04-23 04:00:38	nba phx okc 2026 04 22	Thunder	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0xfd6cbc…
04-18 22:09:00	nba min den 2026 04 18	Nuggets	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x6fa481…
04-13 02:40:39	nba sac por 2026 04 12	Trail Blazers	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x1007c9…
04-07 02:25:55	nba phi sas 2026 04 06	Spurs	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0xcf2297…
04-02 01:02:39	nba atl orl 2026 04 01	Hawks	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x8111b6…
03-10 02:11:31	nba den okc 2026 03 09	Thunder	SELL	113	100¢	$113	0x8e63f2…
03-10 02:01:47	nba den okc 2026 03 09	Thunder	BUY	113	97¢	$110	0x317fba…
03-03 00:24:29	highest temperature in chicago on march 2 2026 46 47f	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x0e48d1…
03-02 23:16:21	will bill clinton say plane during his epstein testimony	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x775262…
03-02 15:40:51	highest temperature in seattle on march 2 2026 52 53f	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x05c822…
03-02 09:08:39	highest temperature in chicago on march 2 2026 46 47f	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x01230d…
03-02 07:08:43	highest temperature in london on march 2 2026 18corhigher	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xb194cc…
03-01 21:05:01	highest temperature in seattle on march 2 2026 64forhigher	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xc7a357…
03-01 12:00:27	highest temperature in dallas on march 2 2026 70 71f	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xc6915a…
03-01 12:00:25	highest temperature in london on march 2 2026 18corhigher	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xf1766f…
03-01 12:00:25	highest temperature in seattle on march 2 2026 64forhigher	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xec617b…
03-01 12:00:25	highest temperature in wellington on march 2 2026 16c	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xe22baa…
03-01 12:00:25	highest temperature in seattle on march 2 2026 50 51f	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xccadf3…
03-01 12:00:25	highest temperature in wellington on march 2 2026 17corhigher	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xbff454…
03-01 12:00:25	highest temperature in seattle on march 2 2026 52 53f	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x967507…
03-01 02:59:27	highest temperature in seoul on march 1 2026 10c	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x22221b…
03-01 02:03:59	will russia enter verkhnia tersa by february 28	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xdf0e11…
03-01 02:01:47	highest temperature in seoul on march 1 2026 10c	No	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x7147d1…
02-28 10:20:03	will anthropic have the second best ai model at the end of february 2026	Yes	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x7cfc7a…
02-27 04:14:52	will anthropic have the second best ai model at the end of february 2026	Yes	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x5dc9ae…
02-27 00:21:14	will russia enter verkhnia tersa by february 28	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x1040cd…
02-26 23:53:00	highest temperature in seoul on february 27 2026 8c	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xd90604…
02-26 17:22:50	will bill clinton say plane during his epstein testimony	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x438300…
02-26 12:30:12	highest temperature in atlanta on february 26 2026 70 71f	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xb828e9…
02-26 10:58:44	highest temperature in ankara on february 26 2026 5c	Yes	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xd115fa…
02-26 09:53:22	highest temperature in nyc on february 26 2026 38 39f	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x26c04f…
02-26 05:00:32	highest temperature in nyc on february 26 2026 38 39f	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x252986…
02-25 22:15:28	highest temperature in wellington on february 26 2026 19c	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0xcc8ce5…
02-25 21:56:02	highest temperature in dallas on february 25 2026 78 79f	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x2317c7…
02-25 17:45:38	highest temperature in ankara on february 26 2026 8corhigher	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x385b92…
02-25 13:28:50	highest temperature in atlanta on february 26 2026 70 71f	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x54c2f8…
02-25 09:17:36	highest temperature in seoul on february 25 2026 11c	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x13d490…
02-25 08:15:08	highest temperature in seoul on february 25 2026 14corhigher	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x1884d7…
02-25 06:57:40	highest temperature in seoul on february 25 2026 11c	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x982d46…
02-25 01:24:16	highest temperature in seattle on february 24 2026 50forhigher	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xbdf68c…
02-25 00:00:56	will the total number of tsa passengers for february 26 be less than 2000000	No	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0x938fe0…
02-25 00:00:56	will queen charlotte die in bridgerton season 4	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x507848…
02-24 20:01:26	highest temperature in toronto on february 24 2026 neg 6c	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0x423ae5…
02-24 19:24:54	highest temperature in dallas on february 25 2026 78 79f	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x3951ba…
02-24 18:55:46	highest temperature in miami on february 24 2026 63forbelow	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xca4c4c…
02-24 18:05:40	highest temperature in nyc on february 25 2026 36 37f	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xa75578…
02-24 17:17:22	highest temperature in seoul on february 25 2026 14corhigher	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x2daf04…
02-24 16:07:02	highest temperature in ankara on february 25 2026 11corhigher	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x0142f2…
02-24 11:44:42	highest temperature in ankara on february 24 2026 10c	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xb97c05…
02-24 10:22:06	highest temperature in seattle on february 24 2026 40 41f	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x7d09b8…
02-24 05:08:28	highest temperature in miami on february 24 2026 63forbelow	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x664048…
02-23 23:11:46	highest temperature in ankara on february 24 2026 10c	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0xa10d20…
02-23 23:02:38	highest temperature in chicago on february 24 2026 31forbelow	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x7224be…
02-23 20:02:20	highest temperature in toronto on february 24 2026 neg 6c	No	BUY	4	97¢	$4	0x941353…
02-23 18:29:22	highest temperature in buenos aires on february 24 2026 40c	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x497f9c…
02-23 15:06:52	highest temperature in seattle on february 24 2026 50forhigher	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0xd0c933…
02-23 13:30:48	highest temperature in buenos aires on february 24 2026 40c	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x70c196…
02-23 12:23:08	highest temperature in seattle on february 24 2026 40 41f	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x9bcd8c…
02-21 21:01:58	highest temperature in miami on february 22 2026 80 81f	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xaa3807…
02-20 15:59:54	will the total number of tsa passengers for february 21 be less than 1800000	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x68deb8…
02-19 01:15:56	will dtmf bad bunny be the 1 song on spotify this week 793	Yes	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xd524ca…
02-17 00:21:21	highest temperature in london on february 17 2026 5c	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x2638a6…
02-16 12:01:13	highest temperature in london on february 17 2026 5c	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x61930e…
02-16 02:51:41	will japan gdp growth in q4 2025 be at least 1pt6	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x3950a5…
02-15 09:44:49	will japan gdp growth in q4 2025 be at least 1pt6	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x970c33…
02-14 11:18:15	will the bangladesh nationalist party bnp win 250 or more seats in the bangladesh parliamentary election	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x57903d…
02-13 16:12:13	will mrbeasts latest video get between 55 and 60 million views on week 1	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xa09de3…
02-13 12:42:35	will the bangladesh nationalist party bnp win the bangladesh parliamentary election by between 3 and 6 783	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xafc2ca…
02-13 12:03:09	will grok 4pt20 be released on february 14 2026	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x8bba16…
02-13 00:00:43	will the total number of tsa passengers for february 14 be less than 1500000	No	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0x975b80…
02-13 00:00:41	will grok 4pt20 be released on february 14 2026	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x6bfd70…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
oVyg7f 0x5f39…a78c	74	$11.4K	1,784	03-03 00:30
(anonymous) 0xf2eb…6eb5	68	$11.3K	914	03-03 23:09
Different-Hazel 0x3dd2…9ab1	66	$15.4K	589	03-02 23:29
Motionless-Stalk 0xe347…b438	63	$6.95K	887	03-03 23:09
Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71	55	$2.94K	813	05-29 22:30
Fine-Flanker 0x0e7f…2015	49	$7.44K	697	05-30 21:57
(anonymous) 0xd6ee…37a2	47	$9.00K	1,150	03-03 07:53
Straight-Wrinkle 0x8765…ed81	44	$1.66K	421	03-02 10:41