Jovial-Pickaxe — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$6.47K

Unrealized P&L

-$9

Hit rate

30.6%

Resolved

1,816

Trades

30,937

lifetime

Volume

$116.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$60

2 positions

First seen

2026-05-14

last 10-02 16:19

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 125 days

Categories

Crypto

68% 39% -$3,565

Other

20% 25% -$1,560

Politics

9% 21% -$780

Tech

3% 19% -$555

Sports

0% 43% -$11

Pop-Culture

0% 50% +$2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

47 active days in 12wk • peak 636 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?	Yes		+60	$36	68¢	$41	+$5	08-15 13:38
Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?	No		+60	$34	32¢	$19	-$15	08-15 02:57

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-08 13:45 UTC	230	$1.7K	1,762	1,709	+53	Up	+$14	06-08 13:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	184	$1.1K	1,852	0	+1,852	Down	-$510	05-22 16:39
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-06 17:30 UTC	447	$992	1,865	0	+1,865	Up	-$41	06-06 17:42
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	149	$957	1,498	0	+1,498	Up	+$207	05-22 16:28
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-12 16:00 UTC	355	$891	1,470	0	+1,470	Down	-$196	07-12 16:13
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-17 18:15 UTC	399	$844	1,685	0	+1,685	Up	-$23	06-17 18:29
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-07 16:40 UTC	231	$834	1,617	0	+1,617	Up	-$15	07-07 16:44
Will the People’s Bank of China not change rates by September 30?	102	$827	699	699	+0	Yes	-$10	08-11 22:30
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-08 08:30 UTC	374	$807	1,557	0	+1,557	Up	-$22	06-08 08:44
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-06 19:45 UTC	374	$807	1,574	0	+1,574	Down	-$40	06-06 19:59
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-10 19:15 UTC	318	$735	1,420	0	+1,420	Down	-$26	07-10 19:29
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-12 15:00 UTC	318	$722	1,382	0	+1,382	Down	-$32	07-12 15:14
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-09 11:35 UTC	175	$708	1,402	0	+1,402	Up	-$23	07-09 11:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	118	$694	1,185	0	+1,185	Down	-$195	05-22 16:34
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-10 08:45 UTC	309	$688	1,342	0	+1,342	Up	-$35	07-10 08:59
ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-07 12:10 UTC	218	$668	1,269	0	+1,269	Down	-$21	07-07 12:14
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-11 11:00 UTC	261	$650	1,120	0	+1,120	Up	-$89	07-11 11:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	105	$645	1,058	0	+1,058	Up	+$43	05-23 07:59
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-04 07:30 UTC	180	$645	1,251	0	+1,251	Down	-$35	07-04 07:34
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-08 12:45 UTC	246	$622	1,195	0	+1,195	Up	-$23	06-08 12:58
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-04 13:55 UTC	157	$603	1,142	0	+1,142	Up	-$24	07-04 13:59
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-10 11:00 UTC	263	$582	1,130	0	+1,130	Up	-$34	07-10 11:14
ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-07 12:00 UTC	172	$570	1,090	0	+1,090	Up	-$24	07-07 12:04
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-11 06:30 UTC	222	$570	945	0	+945	Down	-$230	07-11 06:44
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-11 13:45 UTC	327	$565	1,327	0	+1,327	Down	+$109	07-11 13:59
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-11 12:00 UTC	220	$548	893	0	+893	Up	-$217	07-11 12:14
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-09 11:40 UTC	143	$538	1,062	0	+1,062	Down	-$10	07-09 11:44
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-16 13:00 UTC	253	$533	1,060	0	+1,060	Down	-$23	06-16 13:08
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-08 05:45 UTC	218	$528	909	0	+909	Up	+$49	06-08 05:54
ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-04 17:50 UTC	150	$523	1,004	0	+1,004	Up	-$19	07-04 17:52

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-02 16:19:14	Will Jérôme Gagnon win the next Nicolet-Bécancour Quebec National Assembly election?	No	SELL	2	52¢	$1	0x4dae3b…
10-02 16:19:12	Will Viktor Lavička be the next Mayor of České Budějovice?	No	SELL	4	64¢	$3	0xe93169…
10-02 16:19:12	Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 28-October 4?	Yes	SELL	8	21¢	$2	0xbbada3…
10-02 16:19:11	Will Augusto Cury win between 1% and 2% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	10	6¢	$1	0x758e51…
10-02 16:19:11	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.3% in September?	Yes	SELL	11	12¢	$1	0x36c6b0…
10-02 16:19:11	Will Mia Fréchette win the next Saint-François Quebec National Assembly election?	Yes	SELL	20	4¢	$1	0x232ca3…
10-02 16:19:09	Will Janet Gatehouse win the next Sorell mayoral election?	No	SELL	20	16¢	$3	0x9f2307…
10-02 16:19:09	Will Atsushi Fukuyama win the 2026 Yokohama mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	20	8¢	$2	0x958907…
10-02 16:19:09	Will fewer than 170 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 28-October 4?	Yes	SELL	20	7¢	$1	0x84ae7a…
10-02 16:19:08	Trump declassifies new UFO files by October 15?	Yes	SELL	24	12¢	$3	0x952a1e…
10-02 16:19:08	Will the Texas Democrat perform best among these tossup Senate races?	Yes	SELL	12	5¢	$1	0x0f436b…
10-02 16:19:06	Will the Labour Party candidate win 45-50% of the vote in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?	Yes	SELL	37	4¢	$1	0xba24cf…
10-02 16:19:06	Next White House Press Secretary announced by October 7, 2026?	Yes	SELL	44	6¢	$3	0xb3ba42…
10-02 16:19:06	Will Isabelle Blais win the next Maskinongé Quebec National Assembly election?	No	SELL	36	4¢	$1	0x3ca362…
10-02 16:19:06	Will the Green candidate win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election by a margin of 10-15%?	Yes	SELL	60	1¢	$1	0x38de25…
10-02 16:19:05	Will Renan Santos win 8% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	60	5¢	$3	0xc88b7f…
10-02 16:19:05	Will Valve add Cobblestone to the map pool by October 31?	Yes	SELL	60	1¢	$1	0x498a92…
10-02 15:53:47	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in September?	Yes	SELL	60	5¢	$3	0xb5a139…
10-02 15:52:32	Shipping targeted in Hormuz on September 22, 2026?	No	SELL	5	92¢	$5	0x29d803…
10-02 15:52:24	Will Sonia Ziadé win the next La Prairie Quebec National Assembly election?	Yes	SELL	40	10¢	$4	0x0f0f60…
10-02 15:52:17	Will the Reserve Bank of India increase the policy repo rate by 50+ bps at the October meeting?	Yes	SELL	40	11¢	$4	0x7edb68…
10-02 15:52:03	Will Kazuma Nakatani win the 2026 Yokohama mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	14	28¢	$4	0xcdef1f…
10-02 15:51:59	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win between 36% and 39% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	50	10¢	$5	0x155886…
10-02 15:51:21	Will PPI YoY be 5.6% in September?	Yes	SELL	45	11¢	$5	0xbd7a1b…
10-02 15:51:15	Will Mounu Uaisele win the Tongatapu 2 by-election?	Yes	SELL	60	2¢	$1	0x482570…
10-02 15:51:11	Will the Labour candidate win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election by a margin of 0-5%?	Yes	SELL	28	20¢	$6	0x69f032…
10-02 15:51:05	Will the Labour candidate win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election by a margin of 10-15%?	Yes	SELL	31	16¢	$5	0xda0708…
10-02 15:50:44	Will ISM Services PMI be between 55.0 and 55.9 in September?	Yes	SELL	28	18¢	$5	0xfabfd3…
10-02 15:50:38	Will SDA win the most seats in the 2026 Bosnian general election?	No	SELL	91	6¢	$6	0x729618…
10-02 15:50:32	Will Renan Santos win between 4% and 6% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	10	67¢	$7	0x176ce1…
10-02 15:50:26	Will the Green Party candidate win 20-25% of the vote in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?	Yes	SELL	60	8¢	$5	0xb132ac…
10-02 15:50:14	Will Louise Bloomfield win the next Hobart mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	67	11¢	$7	0x4cd71e…
10-02 15:50:06	Will the Labour Party candidate win 50% or more of the vote in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?	Yes	SELL	36	21¢	$8	0xc85358…
10-02 15:50:00	Will Jakub Rychtecký be the next Mayor of Pardubice?	Yes	SELL	20	37¢	$7	0x197325…
10-02 15:49:56	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Nevada Secretary of State election?	No	SELL	54	14¢	$7	0xf651b9…
10-02 15:49:51	Will the Green Party candidate win 25-30% of the vote in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?	Yes	SELL	40	17¢	$7	0x7a1e8e…
10-02 15:49:44	US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by October 31?	No	SELL	10	84¢	$9	0x82b96d…
10-02 15:49:39	Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 28-October 4?	Yes	SELL	70	13¢	$9	0x7f5460…
10-02 15:49:33	Will the Green Party candidate win 30-35% of the vote in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?	Yes	SELL	40	20¢	$8	0x6f6115…
10-02 15:49:29	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 9?	Yes	SELL	11	92¢	$10	0x7f61be…
10-02 15:49:21	Will Renan Santos win less than 2% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	16	90¢	$14	0x2f56e8…
10-02 15:49:15	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Nevada Attorney General election?	No	SELL	66	23¢	$15	0xb633af…
10-02 15:49:09	Will Greens win the third most seats in the 2026 British Columbia general election?	No	SELL	100	16¢	$16	0x4b4bb5…
10-02 15:49:02	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on September 22?	Yes	SELL	20	84¢	$17	0x4657d5…
10-02 15:48:33	Will Sagal Abdi-Wali win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?	No	SELL	135	16¢	$21	0x356882…
10-02 15:48:24	Will Tomáš Vohryzka be the next Mayor of Ústí nad Labem?	No	SELL	40	59¢	$24	0x5b3967…
09-24 10:01:56	will the 10 year treasury yield hit 5pt15 in september	No	BUY	50	13¢	$6	0xa79b0f…
09-24 09:58:18	Will the Labour candidate win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election by a margin of 0-5%?	Yes	BUY	20	17¢	$3	0x7ed163…
09-24 09:05:51	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.3% in September?	Yes	SELL	20	18¢	$4	0xff5507…
09-24 08:51:18	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on October 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x738ac5…
09-24 08:43:42	Will Greens win the third most seats in the 2026 British Columbia general election?	No	BUY	50	15¢	$8	0xc892bb…
09-24 08:34:36	will world cup be said during the first joe rogan experience of the week of september 28	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x793fbe…
09-24 08:31:18	will the 10 year treasury yield hit 5pt15 in september	No	BUY	19	23¢	$4	0xd72b77…
09-24 08:22:26	Trump declassifies new UFO files by October 15?	Yes	BUY	1	18¢	$0	0x3ab009…
09-24 08:21:54	will the 10 year treasury yield hit 5pt15 in september	No	BUY	1	23¢	$0	0x9d4509…
09-24 06:55:50	will the 10 year treasury yield hit 5pt25 in september	Yes	BUY	20	16¢	$3	0xc99c30…
09-24 06:32:39	will the 10 year treasury yield hit 5pt25 in september	Yes	BUY	1	16¢	$0	0x31ce41…
09-24 06:28:38	Will Ukraine target Moscow on September 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	26¢	$5	0x0b26d5…
09-24 05:43:26	will the 10 year treasury yield hit 5pt15 in september	No	BUY	17	28¢	$5	0xc4739d…
09-24 05:39:06	will the 10 year treasury yield hit 5pt15 in september	No	BUY	3	28¢	$1	0x1b1c44…
09-24 05:37:08	Will Ukraine target Moscow on September 28, 2026?	Yes	SELL	14	28¢	$4	0x45087c…
09-24 05:32:42	Will “Click Clack Symphony” by Raye featuring Hans Zimmer win Best Visual Effects at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards?	Yes	BUY	20	20¢	$4	0x31849c…
09-24 04:58:36	Will Kazuma Nakatani win the 2026 Yokohama mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	14	19¢	$3	0x52e4cd…
09-24 04:49:44	highest wind gust at nyc laguardia at least 30 kt	No	BUY	20	11¢	$2	0xf1df16…
09-24 04:42:06	Trump declassifies new UFO files by October 15?	Yes	BUY	2	18¢	$0	0xcdae55…
09-24 04:42:05	dwts 35 week 3 elimination ciamil	Yes	BUY	1	14¢	$0	0xaec48e…
09-24 04:40:14	dwts 35 week 3 elimination tayhan	Yes	BUY	20	12¢	$2	0x9d2f8e…
09-24 04:27:50	Will another party win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?	Yes	BUY	20	14¢	$3	0xefc080…
09-24 03:09:47	will the 10 year treasury yield hit 5pt25 in september	Yes	BUY	20	16¢	$3	0xb015bd…
09-24 03:06:41	Will Greens win the third most seats in the 2026 British Columbia general election?	No	BUY	50	20¢	$10	0x1aa44e…
09-24 02:45:53	Will Ukraine target Moscow on September 29, 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	30¢	$2	0x5d3369…
09-24 02:43:53	Will Ukraine target Moscow on September 29, 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	30¢	$1	0xedf482…
09-24 02:28:40	Trump declassifies new UFO files by October 15?	Yes	SELL	5	21¢	$1	0x039e76…
09-24 02:21:47	Will the highest wind gust at NYC LaGuardia be 30 kt or more?	No	BUY	20	12¢	$2	0x57bb97…
09-24 02:09:50	highest wind gust at nyc laguardia at least 30 kt	No	BUY	20	19¢	$4	0x6ebe3f…
09-24 01:55:31	Will “Click Clack Symphony” by Raye featuring Hans Zimmer win Best Visual Effects at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards?	Yes	BUY	20	20¢	$4	0x786321…
09-24 01:54:56	Will CentreBC win the third most seats in the 2026 British Columbia general election?	Yes	BUY	1	11¢	$0	0xb57fff…
09-24 01:54:56	Will CentreBC win the third most seats in the 2026 British Columbia general election?	Yes	BUY	13	11¢	$1	0x28b931…
09-24 01:54:56	Will CentreBC win the third most seats in the 2026 British Columbia general election?	Yes	BUY	5	11¢	$1	0x23abbd…
09-24 01:50:10	Will the highest wind gust at Boston Logan be 35 kt or more?	Yes	SELL	20	75¢	$15	0x35ae1d…
09-24 01:36:23	dwts 35 week 3 elimination tayhan	Yes	BUY	20	18¢	$4	0x9e00ab…
09-24 01:27:38	dwts 35 week 3 elimination ciamil	Yes	BUY	20	22¢	$4	0x4e38ef…
09-24 01:05:01	Will Renan Santos win between 4% and 6% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	3	75¢	$2	0x99e7bb…
09-24 01:01:01	will the 10 year treasury yield hit 5pt25 in september	Yes	BUY	0	16¢	$0	0x740e62…
09-24 00:55:47	dwts 35 week 3 elimination guirod	Yes	SELL	20	18¢	$4	0xd7bece…
09-24 00:34:55	will the 10 year treasury yield hit 5pt15 in september	No	BUY	1	27¢	$0	0xdeb22d…
09-24 00:01:46	Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in September?	Yes	SELL	12	25¢	$3	0xee0348…
09-23 23:57:02	Will Ukraine target Moscow on September 29, 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	30¢	$1	0xec982c…
09-23 23:53:41	saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by october 15	No	SELL	20	27¢	$5	0x1e3bf6…
09-23 23:53:32	saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by october 15	No	SELL	20	27¢	$5	0xa59109…
09-23 23:40:07	will people be said 100 times during the first joe rogan experience of the week of september 28	No	BUY	30	20¢	$6	0x65c0fb…
09-23 23:35:41	dwts 35 week 3 elimination tayhan	Yes	BUY	11	18¢	$2	0x188bc2…
09-23 23:16:58	saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by october 15	No	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0xf81925…
09-23 23:01:46	saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by october 15	No	BUY	20	29¢	$6	0x8fe36a…
09-23 22:55:25	Will Atsushi Fukuyama win the 2026 Yokohama mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x9038cb…
09-23 22:48:34	dwts 35 week 3 elimination guirod	Yes	BUY	20	18¢	$4	0x74d75b…
09-23 22:41:35	Will Renan Santos win between 4% and 6% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	20	24¢	$5	0xd07e7f…
09-23 22:41:35	Will Renan Santos win between 4% and 6% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	0	74¢	$0	0xd07e7f…
09-23 22:41:35	Will Renan Santos win between 4% and 6% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	15	74¢	$11	0x138831…
09-23 22:19:11	Will there be at least 3700+ measles cases in the U.S. by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	20	43¢	$9	0x57a7fb…