Lucky-Quiche — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$14.8K

Unrealized P&L

-$211

Hit rate

49.6%

Resolved

488

Trades

1,252

lifetime

Volume

$75.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$61

Open exposure

$288

6 positions

First seen

2026-02-02

last 10-23 15:33

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 125 days

Categories

Politics

55% 13% -$12,942

Crypto

38% 74% +$227

Other

7% 8% -$1,988

Sports

0% 0% -$141

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

46 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions (6) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026?	Yes	+3,081	$260	6¢	$169	-$91	10-16 10:41
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	+360	$90	18¢	$67	-$23	08-01 15:38
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	Yes	+554	$40	4¢	$25	-$15	09-17 18:34
Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026?	Yes	+312	$25	4¢	$14	-$11	10-22 10:28
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	No	+1,114	$74	1¢	$11	-$63	10-23 15:33
Will Israel election happen as scheduled?	No	+97	$10	2¢	$2	-$8	10-18 14:21

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will iran strike israel on march 4	6	$6.8K	6,384	6,384	+0	Yes	+$5,922	03-07 06:57
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	11	$2.1K	59,208	2,374	+56,834	Yes	+$19	04-23 18:25
will iran strike israel on march 6	13	$1.7K	490,573	0	+490,573	No	-$1,700	03-11 14:58
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	9	$1.6K	60,849	10,833	+50,016	No	-$1,298	03-31 21:44
internet access restored in iran by april 30 2026	7	$1.1K	3,013	3,013	+0	No	-$100	04-18 11:00
will another country strike iran by march 31 833	7	$900	5,084	0	+5,084	No	-$900	03-24 06:39
kharg island no longer under iranian control by april 15	6	$874	8,959	8,959	+0	No	-$126	04-12 06:36
us strikes iran by february 18 2026	6	$800	50,333	0	+50,333	No	-$800	02-18 17:38
will the us invade iran by march 31	4	$800	7,146	0	+7,146	No	-$800	03-23 11:26
kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31	5	$702	10,458	6,000	+4,458	No	-$498	03-30 19:43
will another country conduct military action against iran by april 15 2026	3	$687	12,974	12,974	+0	No	+$386	04-19 06:19
us strikes iran by february 27 2026	4	$681	17,644	0	+17,644	No	-$681	02-27 22:27
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	5	$629	3,454	3,454	+0	Yes	-$71	04-10 16:47
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?	6	$600	3,232	0	+3,232	No	-$600	04-27 09:26
iran full airspace closure by july 24	6	$590	8,303	0	+8,303	No	-$590	07-24 16:21
will israel strike gaza on february 21 2026	6	$589	10,839	0	+10,839	No	-$589	02-23 14:45
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	4	$579	2,068	1,443	+625	No	+$145	05-08 09:18
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 15, 2026?	8	$564	3,576	2,565	+1,011	No	-$236	04-15 12:39
will the us next strike iran on february 27 2026 et	2	$532	63,799	0	+63,799	No	-$532	02-28 07:48
trump announces us x iran ceasefire end by april 12 2026	6	$519	10,802	10,802	+0	No	-$481	04-13 03:52
Israel closes its airspace by June 15?	3	$512	670	670	+0	No	+$212	06-08 08:27
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-20 14:00 UTC	5	$507	336	209	+126	Up	-$93	03-20 14:04
Military action against Iran ends on April 10, 2026?	5	$500	79,541	0	+79,541	No	-$500	04-12 06:34
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	5	$500	17,988	0	+17,988	No	-$500	05-15 20:06
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-21 11:45 UTC	7	$477	256	255	+1	Down	+$28	03-21 11:49
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	3	$476	2,926	2,926	+0	No	-$424	05-27 05:37
israel closes its airspace by june 8	5	$473	1,621	1,052	+568	No	-$347	06-08 13:08
Israel closes its airspace by September 30?	3	$461	655	655	+0	Yes	+$341	09-05 07:07
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026?	2	$461	11,130	0	+11,130	No	-$461	02-13 22:21
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-19 13:20 UTC	5	$446	416	189	+228	Down	-$73	03-19 13:25

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-23 15:33:42	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	No	BUY	400	6¢	$24	0x3560ea…
10-23 15:32:53	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	No	BUY	909	2¢	$20	0x42726d…
10-23 10:50:00	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	No	BUY	714	7¢	$50	0xf07e7a…
10-23 10:43:47	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	No	BUY	1,250	8¢	$100	0x6d0a53…
10-22 10:28:05	Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	312	8¢	$25	0x2366e3…
10-19 14:44:14	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	No	BUY	290	7¢	$20	0x1691a2…
10-19 14:40:17	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	No	BUY	165	6¢	$10	0xecb50e…
10-18 14:21:26	Will Israel election happen as scheduled?	No	BUY	97	10¢	$10	0x1e9361…
10-17 15:59:39	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 17?	No	BUY	1,818	1¢	$20	0x2a8867…
10-16 10:41:52	Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,456	8¢	$200	0x8324f1…
10-16 06:26:07	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 17?	No	BUY	1,714	3¢	$44	0x26925d…
10-15 19:20:05	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 16?	No	BUY	1,397	3¢	$44	0x7d4e6c…
10-13 18:23:01	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?	No	BUY	1,000	3¢	$30	0xcddb73…
10-13 18:13:42	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?	No	BUY	334	3¢	$10	0x55d735…
10-13 12:40:58	Iran invades Kuwait by October 31?	Yes	BUY	1,090	1¢	$10	0x87c30b…
10-12 16:22:48	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?	No	BUY	2,500	1¢	$25	0xb80dbf…
10-12 16:22:24	Israel military action against Syria by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	150	16¢	$25	0xe2d194…
10-10 18:34:07	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?	No	BUY	1,111	4¢	$50	0xc2dc4c…
10-10 07:05:13	Israel military action against Syria by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	150	33¢	$50	0xee5733…
10-09 20:08:32	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 9?	No	BUY	12,713	1¢	$100	0x68155b…
10-09 10:38:24	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 9?	No	BUY	7,096	1¢	$100	0xdc1dda…
10-08 18:29:05	Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	625	8¢	$50	0xe4f9c3…
10-08 16:23:36	Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,000	5¢	$50	0xd0ef22…
10-08 15:56:44	Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	6¢	$60	0xacf0b4…
10-08 08:58:31	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 9?	No	BUY	1,005	3¢	$30	0x585704…
10-08 06:06:34	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 9?	No	BUY	2,664	2¢	$50	0xe44c10…
10-05 19:36:16	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 7?	No	BUY	323	3¢	$10	0xaf943c…
10-05 18:39:47	us x iran ceasefire continues through october 5	No	BUY	2,756	1¢	$20	0x61169d…
10-05 16:22:29	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 5?	No	BUY	2,222	1¢	$20	0xf14d1d…
10-03 16:18:32	us x iran ceasefire continues through october 5	No	BUY	168	6¢	$10	0x0e22ba…
10-02 20:32:36	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 7?	No	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0xcbe2fb…
09-30 16:37:53	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	No	BUY	1,502	1¢	$10	0x2280d8…
09-30 09:48:18	US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	No	BUY	3,113	2¢	$50	0xa33f5b…
09-29 15:53:32	US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	No	BUY	1,517	3¢	$50	0x9f5a35…
09-29 13:29:57	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Yes	BUY	2,500	0¢	$10	0x4c26db…
09-25 08:56:24	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Yes	BUY	1,545	1¢	$10	0xbc6ff5…
09-23 11:59:37	us x iran ceasefire continues through september 25 20260917	No	BUY	1,785	3¢	$50	0xe8821d…
09-23 08:14:37	US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 25?	No	BUY	1,518	3¢	$50	0xee339c…
09-23 08:11:08	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Yes	BUY	1,429	1¢	$10	0x34ff2e…
09-23 05:32:19	Iran full airspace closure by September 30?	Yes	BUY	1,565	3¢	$50	0x4512f2…
09-22 16:20:30	Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 22?	Yes	BUY	74	13¢	$10	0xa6e0a0…
09-22 16:01:10	Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 22?	Yes	BUY	59	17¢	$10	0xa82caf…
09-22 15:55:33	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Yes	BUY	1,000	1¢	$10	0xb2155c…
09-22 10:54:45	Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 22?	Yes	BUY	34	36¢	$12	0xe6ad7f…
09-21 20:09:13	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	No	BUY	625	3¢	$20	0x8717a9…
09-21 18:35:52	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	No	BUY	1,000	5¢	$50	0x0491f1…
09-17 18:34:16	Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	Yes	BUY	143	7¢	$10	0xffa07b…
09-17 18:34:04	Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	Yes	BUY	286	7¢	$20	0xa5a192…
09-16 08:02:12	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Yes	BUY	203	5¢	$10	0x4f3323…
09-15 13:28:27	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Yes	BUY	204	5¢	$10	0x3160cd…
09-15 13:27:57	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 15?	Yes	BUY	4,526	0¢	$20	0x16ab61…
09-14 10:14:09	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 15?	Yes	BUY	1,275	1¢	$10	0xcaca74…
09-14 07:08:48	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 15?	Yes	BUY	1,250	1¢	$10	0xc6ffaf…
09-14 05:50:33	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 15?	Yes	BUY	1,241	1¢	$10	0x89e5e4…
09-12 18:09:28	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 15?	Yes	BUY	1,012	1¢	$10	0x57cb0c…
09-12 18:08:40	israel x iran ceasefire continues through september 15	No	BUY	1,224	4¢	$50	0xa4724d…
09-12 18:08:06	Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?	Yes	BUY	967	1¢	$10	0xaeebe1…
09-11 08:50:28	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 15?	Yes	BUY	1,212	3¢	$40	0x4a9a86…
09-06 19:10:46	Israel military action against Syria by September 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	83	12¢	$10	0xf42423…
09-05 14:18:12	Israel military action against Syria by September 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	86	12¢	$10	0x00654e…
09-05 07:10:57	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?	Yes	BUY	2,778	2¢	$50	0x433194…
09-05 07:09:30	iran full airspace closure by september 30 20260727170320670	Yes	BUY	500	10¢	$50	0x75855b…
09-05 07:08:54	Iran leadership change by September 30?	Yes	BUY	1,604	3¢	$50	0x35135a…
09-05 07:07:45	Israel closes its airspace by September 30?	Yes	SELL	655	61¢	$401	0xd0eda9…
09-03 13:48:21	Iran full airspace closure by September 30?	Yes	BUY	500	8¢	$40	0x324015…
09-01 18:51:15	Israel closes its airspace by September 30?	Yes	BUY	530	9¢	$50	0x8d14b9…
09-01 18:49:39	Iran leadership change by September 30?	Yes	BUY	1,562	3¢	$50	0x168f83…
08-31 12:47:03	Iran full airspace closure by August 31?	Yes	BUY	1,182	1¢	$10	0xe91eb8…
08-31 05:07:15	Iran full airspace closure by August 31?	Yes	BUY	3,577	1¢	$50	0x372b9f…
08-31 03:59:36	Israel closes its airspace by September 30?	Yes	BUY	125	8¢	$10	0x4d7282…
08-30 16:52:12	Iran successfully targets shipping on August 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	35	28¢	$10	0x454c48…
08-28 18:52:33	Iran leadership change by August 31?	Yes	BUY	2,500	0¢	$10	0x6cc134…
08-27 19:29:52	Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31?	Yes	BUY	526	2¢	$10	0x6d69ea…
08-27 19:27:31	Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31?	Yes	BUY	526	2¢	$10	0x4b6f65…
08-21 15:43:13	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151 668	Yes	BUY	2,568	4¢	$100	0x2a707f…
08-20 14:50:46	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151 668	Yes	BUY	2,269	4¢	$100	0x25dc83…
08-18 16:14:27	will iran target a arab country on august 18 2026 20260801004719135	Yes	BUY	74	13¢	$10	0x450d51…
08-17 13:48:10	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	Yes	BUY	10,000	0¢	$10	0x316712…
08-16 10:13:01	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	Yes	BUY	1,515	3¢	$50	0x6a1051…
08-16 09:59:36	total internet blackout in iran by august 31 2026 20260720155238428	Yes	BUY	125	8¢	$10	0xc9a213…
08-16 03:59:10	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151 668	Yes	BUY	571	7¢	$40	0x31d724…
08-15 13:30:33	israel closes its airspace by august 15	Yes	BUY	5,000	0¢	$20	0x4719e4…
08-15 13:26:37	israel closes its airspace by august 15	Yes	BUY	7,500	0¢	$30	0x73ceeb…
08-15 13:25:46	israel closes its airspace by august 15	Yes	BUY	2,500	0¢	$10	0x71d341…
08-14 12:59:45	iran full airspace closure by august 15	Yes	BUY	15,659	1¢	$100	0xc4f1d1…
08-11 12:27:07	will iran target a arab country on august 11 2026 20260801004719128	Yes	BUY	64	16¢	$10	0xe2b6c0…
08-10 11:25:16	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 31 286	Yes	BUY	125	8¢	$10	0x533eae…
08-10 11:22:12	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	Yes	BUY	821	1¢	$10	0xcd7e39…
08-05 17:16:09	will iran target a arab country on august 5 2026 20260801004719122	Yes	BUY	21	24¢	$5	0xc73ac4…
08-05 17:15:03	iran full airspace closure by august 15	Yes	BUY	1,286	7¢	$90	0xf00a88…
08-05 09:48:30	iran full airspace closure by august 15	Yes	BUY	1,563	6¢	$95	0x8ed808…
08-04 09:14:00	iran successfully targets shipping on august 4 2026 20260729163314524	Yes	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0x89d509…
08-04 09:13:45	iran successfully targets shipping on august 3 2026 20260729163314523	Yes	SELL	53	10¢	$5	0x5e254c…
08-03 15:38:06	iran full airspace closure by august 15	Yes	BUY	818	11¢	$90	0xb8373d…
08-03 10:01:20	iran successfully targets shipping on august 3 2026 20260729163314523	Yes	BUY	53	38¢	$20	0x65d5fb…
08-01 17:39:06	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	Yes	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0x0b3d90…
08-01 16:40:30	Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	Yes	BUY	125	8¢	$10	0xf72ca5…
08-01 16:38:56	us obtains iranian enriched uranium by august 31	Yes	BUY	2,573	2¢	$50	0x18f3de…
08-01 15:38:33	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	360	25¢	$90	0xc33eac…
08-01 15:19:11	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	Yes	BUY	1,098	4¢	$45	0x97539e…