Costly-Challenge — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$20

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

88.4%

Resolved

279

Trades

5,149

lifetime

Volume

$159.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$31

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 07-21 15:09

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 9 days

Categories

Crypto

93% 90% +$37

Other

3% — —

Politics

3% — —

Sports

1% 50% $-18

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

57 active days in 12wk • peak 106 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran ceasefire by march 2	12	$2.1K	1,055	1,055	+0	open	—	03-02 01:31
us x iran ceasefire by march 6	9	$1.5K	800	800	+0	open	—	03-02 17:09
bitcoin up or down march 12 10am et	2	$929	482	481	+1	open	—	03-12 15:00
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	3	$913	500	500	+0	open	—	03-12 14:45
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	2	$599	461	461	+0	open	—	03-23 11:16
nhl col stl 2026 04 07	3	$592	300	300	+0	open	—	04-08 02:37
Will Shanghai Shenhua FC win on 2026-04-26?	7	$559	282	282	+0	open	—	04-26 14:24
us strikes iran by february 27 2026	3	$514	519	0	+519	open	—	02-28 06:55
xrp updown 15m 1767496500	2	$504	550	0	+550	open	—	01-04 03:29
will crude oil cl hit low 65 by end of march 687 631 179 583 222 896 946 953 469 231 749	2	$431	220	220	+0	open	—	03-28 01:23
doge updown 5m 1776818100	3	$430	448	0	+448	open	—	04-22 00:40
will balendra balen shah be the next prime minister of nepal	2	$418	220	220	+0	open	—	03-09 00:48
solana up or down january 20 1am et	2	$398	200	200	+0	open	—	01-20 07:00
sol updown 15m 1769847300	6	$396	200	200	+0	open	—	01-31 08:29
will crude oil cl hit low 75 by end of march 644 777 281 682 546 253	2	$379	192	192	+0	open	—	03-30 23:13
sol updown 15m 1767494700	2	$378	400	0	+400	open	—	01-04 03:00
xrp up or down january 26 11pm et	5	$357	220	160	+60	open	—	01-27 05:17
eth updown 15m 1767498300	2	$350	400	0	+400	open	—	01-04 03:59
xrp updown 15m 1768876200	3	$346	350	0	+350	open	—	01-20 02:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 10AM ET	4	$341	350	49	+301	open	—	04-25 14:59
btc updown 15m 1768803300	4	$338	420	0	+420	open	—	01-19 06:29
btc updown 15m 1768040100	5	$332	350	50	+300	open	—	01-10 10:30
xrp up or down january 23 10pm et	7	$332	218	150	+68	open	—	01-24 04:12
will bitcoin reach 94k january 19 25	4	$329	210	210	+0	open	—	01-25 23:49
Solana Up or Down - April 29, 11AM ET	2	$311	314	0	+314	open	—	04-29 15:52
will pltr dip to 117 by july 13 2026	1	$310	310	0	+310	open	—	07-17 19:15
eth updown 15m 1768986900	3	$309	313	0	+313	open	—	01-21 09:29
xrp updown 15m 1774413000	1	$300	300	0	+300	open	—	03-25 04:44
btc updown 15m 1768266000	4	$299	160	150	+10	open	—	01-13 01:15
xrp up or down january 24 2am et	3	$297	150	150	+0	open	—	01-24 08:04

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-21 20:00:15	will meta dip to 500 in july 2026	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0xd7af8d…
07-21 15:09:25	nvda up or down on july 21 2026	Up	BUY	6	91¢	$6	0x192b78…
07-21 15:08:09	nvda up or down on july 21 2026	Up	BUY	145	91¢	$132	0x3d7ac7…
07-21 11:35:04	nvda up or down on july 21 2026	Down	BUY	151	28¢	$42	0x6d070c…
07-21 09:52:54	tsla up or down on july 21 2026	Up	BUY	150	75¢	$112	0x259748…
07-20 12:49:39	tsla up or down on july 20 2026	Up	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0x585bcd…
07-20 12:43:10	tsla up or down on july 20 2026	Up	BUY	100	71¢	$71	0x4c68e7…
07-18 09:43:49	will meta dip to 500 in july 2026	No	BUY	200	98¢	$196	0x7e4da8…
07-17 20:00:19	will nflx reach 77 50 by july 13 2026	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0xfc8f43…
07-17 20:00:19	will nflx reach 77 50 by july 13 2026	Yes	BUY	50	0¢	$0	0xe3905a…
07-17 20:00:19	will nflx reach 77 50 by july 13 2026	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0xdc5208…
07-17 20:00:19	will nflx reach 77 50 by july 13 2026	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x7c5b27…
07-17 20:00:19	will nflx reach 77 50 by july 13 2026	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x7a4a22…
07-17 20:00:19	will nflx reach 77 50 by july 13 2026	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x6da508…
07-17 20:00:19	will nflx reach 77 50 by july 13 2026	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x0799d5…
07-17 20:00:18	will nflx reach 77 50 by july 13 2026	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0xecdd64…
07-17 20:00:18	will nflx reach 77 50 by july 13 2026	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0xa84bff…
07-17 20:00:18	will nflx reach 77 50 by july 13 2026	Yes	BUY	17	0¢	$0	0x899a3c…
07-17 20:00:18	will nflx reach 77 50 by july 13 2026	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x755cd6…
07-17 20:00:18	will nflx reach 77 50 by july 13 2026	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x5b2a23…
07-17 20:00:18	will nflx reach 77 50 by july 13 2026	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x4eaea8…
07-17 20:00:18	will nflx reach 77 50 by july 13 2026	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x466eac…
07-17 20:00:18	will nflx reach 77 50 by july 13 2026	Yes	BUY	3	0¢	$0	0x3b4b73…
07-17 20:00:18	will nflx reach 77 50 by july 13 2026	Yes	BUY	25	0¢	$0	0x3024b1…
07-17 20:00:18	will nflx reach 77 50 by july 13 2026	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x1f9659…
07-17 20:00:18	will nflx reach 77 50 by july 13 2026	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x197628…
07-17 20:00:18	will nflx reach 77 50 by july 13 2026	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x0c68db…
07-17 19:57:15	will mu reach 1050 by july 13 2026	Yes	BUY	300	0¢	$0	0x5cbf0d…
07-17 19:57:13	will mu reach 1020 by july 13 2026	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$0	0xd3410c…
07-17 19:53:16	will open dip to 4 25 by july 13 2026	Yes	BUY	30	1¢	$0	0xef3431…
07-17 19:52:30	will amzn dip to 232 by july 13 2026	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$0	0xadee8f…
07-17 19:45:46	will hood reach 122 50 by july 13 2026	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$0	0x0e1147…
07-17 19:45:42	will hood reach 120 by july 13 2026	Yes	BUY	431	0¢	$0	0x932141…
07-17 19:44:49	will hood reach 117 50 by july 13 2026	Yes	BUY	200	0¢	$0	0xadffd2…
07-17 19:43:13	will meta reach 690 by july 13 2026	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$0	0x027b23…
07-17 19:30:43	will pltr reach 141 by july 13 2026	Yes	BUY	35	0¢	$0	0xfc36d7…
07-17 19:30:40	will pltr reach 144 by july 13 2026	Yes	BUY	35	0¢	$0	0xd7bc46…
07-17 19:30:36	will nflx reach 80 by july 13 2026	Yes	BUY	50	0¢	$0	0x17d9d1…
07-17 19:30:34	will nflx dip to 65 by july 13 2026	Yes	SELL	100	0¢	$0	0xabf40a…
07-17 19:27:55	will hood reach 120 by july 13 2026	Yes	BUY	69	0¢	$0	0x904c20…
07-17 19:27:49	will meta reach 700 by july 13 2026	Yes	SELL	200	0¢	$0	0x32b4d7…
07-17 19:22:52	will hood reach 120 by july 13 2026	Yes	SELL	197	0¢	$0	0x7faf33…
07-17 19:17:42	will nflx dip to 65 by july 13 2026	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x8b490f…
07-17 19:15:22	will pltr dip to 114 by july 13 2026	No	BUY	159	100¢	$159	0xe9a58f…
07-17 19:15:00	will pltr dip to 117 by july 13 2026	No	BUY	310	100¢	$310	0xb2bce2…
07-17 19:01:15	will amzn reach 260 by july 13 2026	Yes	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0x160ca7…
07-17 19:01:09	will amzn reach 264 by july 13 2026	Yes	BUY	200	0¢	$0	0x12f253…
07-17 18:57:07	will tsla dip to 360 by july 13 2026	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$0	0x8f0f30…
07-17 18:57:01	will tsla reach 412 50 by july 13 2026	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$0	0xa52f9c…
07-17 18:55:25	will nvda reach 216 by july 13 2026	Yes	BUY	200	0¢	$0	0x1338fc…
07-17 18:54:34	will nvda reach 220 by july 13 2026	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$0	0x2a7c90…
07-17 18:54:15	will tsla reach 420 by july 13 2026	Yes	BUY	200	0¢	$0	0x4c922f…
07-17 18:54:07	will tsla reach 427 50 by july 13 2026	Yes	BUY	428	0¢	$0	0x19a2f0…
07-17 18:35:22	will tsla reach 427 50 by july 13 2026	Yes	BUY	72	0¢	$0	0x456158…
07-17 18:33:42	will nvda reach 224 by july 13 2026	Yes	BUY	300	0¢	$0	0x335f27…
07-17 18:32:46	will meta reach 690 by july 13 2026	Yes	SELL	300	0¢	$0	0xbb143d…
07-17 18:29:22	will meta reach 690 by july 13 2026	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$0	0x449868…
07-17 18:27:10	will tsla reach 420 by july 13 2026	Yes	BUY	200	0¢	$0	0x56b6bb…
07-17 18:09:37	will pltr reach 138 by july 13 2026	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xb1fe62…
07-17 17:54:42	will amzn reach 272 by july 13 2026	Yes	BUY	200	0¢	$0	0x93d623…
07-17 17:53:25	will meta reach 710 by july 13 2026	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$0	0x6472d1…
07-17 17:48:51	will googl reach 385 by july 13 2026	Yes	BUY	300	0¢	$0	0x20b001…
07-17 17:46:07	will tsla reach 427 50 by july 13 2026	Yes	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0xd7eba8…
07-17 17:43:01	will nvda reach 228 by july 13 2026	Yes	BUY	200	0¢	$0	0x0072b0…
07-17 17:38:57	will spy reach 760 by july 13 2026	Yes	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0xf7101f…
07-17 14:58:06	will meta reach 710 by july 13 2026	Yes	BUY	35	0¢	$0	0x29f86e…
07-17 14:57:58	will meta reach 700 by july 13 2026	Yes	BUY	200	0¢	$0	0x4751ab…
07-17 14:55:31	will tsla reach 412 50 by july 13 2026	Yes	BUY	200	0¢	$0	0xbb1c8a…
07-17 14:55:09	will tsla reach 420 by july 13 2026	Yes	BUY	200	0¢	$0	0xc5e035…
07-17 14:55:03	will tsla reach 427 50 by july 13 2026	Yes	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0xd9c7c0…
07-17 14:54:09	will nvda reach 220 by july 13 2026	Yes	BUY	200	0¢	$0	0xbe7ecf…
07-17 14:49:54	will hood reach 120 by july 13 2026	Yes	BUY	200	0¢	$0	0x6d3a21…
07-17 13:45:04	will aapl dip to 288 by july 13 2026	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0x02091f…
07-17 12:13:43	will amzn reach 260 by july 13 2026	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x77744a…
07-17 08:25:36	amzn above 245 on july 17 2026	No	BUY	10	47¢	$5	0xab6acc…
07-15 10:51:14	googl up or down on july 15 2026	Up	BUY	81	44¢	$36	0x49254a…
07-15 10:50:25	googl up or down on july 15 2026	Up	BUY	13	43¢	$6	0xef0bca…
07-15 10:45:16	googl up or down on july 15 2026	Up	BUY	102	43¢	$44	0x21607e…
07-15 10:41:05	googl up or down on july 15 2026	Up	BUY	80	43¢	$34	0x610a84…
07-13 19:36:16	pltr up or down on july 13 2026	Down	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0x7d5381…
07-13 19:08:01	pltr up or down on july 13 2026	Down	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0xed41cf…
07-13 18:42:34	pltr up or down on july 13 2026	Down	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x20f0ae…
07-13 18:06:04	pltr up or down on july 13 2026	Down	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0x130a8e…
07-13 16:08:35	pltr up or down on july 13 2026	Up	BUY	50	93¢	$46	0xd03a2e…
07-13 15:43:23	pltr up or down on july 13 2026	Up	BUY	25	96¢	$24	0x16da6a…
07-13 13:56:43	spy up or down on july 13 2026	Down	BUY	37	79¢	$29	0x717fd5…
07-13 13:56:04	spy up or down on july 13 2026	Up	SELL	37	22¢	$8	0x8b6d69…
07-13 13:54:32	spy up or down on july 13 2026	Up	BUY	37	22¢	$8	0xdde4fe…
07-13 08:44:26	eth updown 5m 1783932000	Up	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0xdaa943…
07-13 02:59:44	ethereum up or down july 12 2026 10pm et	Up	BUY	20	84¢	$17	0xa27bb6…
07-12 23:46:35	amzn up or down on july 13 2026	Up	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0x371a51…
07-12 23:00:35	amzn up or down on july 13 2026	Up	BUY	20	52¢	$11	0x4371bd…
07-12 23:00:20	amzn up or down on july 13 2026	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x96adb7…
07-12 23:00:19	amzn up or down on july 13 2026	Up	BUY	8	52¢	$4	0x66ccee…
07-12 22:37:20	amzn up or down on july 13 2026	Up	BUY	20	52¢	$10	0xdcc670…
07-12 22:30:55	amzn up or down on july 13 2026	Up	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0xe9854d…
07-12 22:30:55	amzn up or down on july 13 2026	Up	BUY	16	52¢	$8	0x5e041e…
07-12 22:30:49	amzn up or down on july 13 2026	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xa67085…
07-12 22:30:46	amzn up or down on july 13 2026	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x7d9e99…
07-12 22:30:44	amzn up or down on july 13 2026	Up	BUY	15	52¢	$8	0xc1abfa…