Costly-Challenge — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$282

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

87.4%

Resolved

3,720

Trades

5,710

lifetime

Volume

$172.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$30

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-24 05:53

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 231 days

Categories

Crypto

87% 89% +$1,017

Other

9% 59% -$729

Politics

3% 100% +$58

Sports

1% 71% -$65

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

65 active days in 12wk • peak 32 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran ceasefire by march 2	12	$2.1K	1,055	1,055	+0	No	+$15	03-02 01:31
us x iran ceasefire by march 6	9	$1.5K	800	800	+0	No	+$3	03-02 17:09
bitcoin up or down march 12 10am et	2	$929	482	481	+1	Down	+$34	03-12 15:00
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	3	$925	500	500	+0	Yes	+$5	07-20 18:43
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	3	$913	500	500	+0	No	+$40	03-12 14:45
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup?	5	$624	232	414	-182	Yes	+$16	06-16 01:55
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	2	$599	461	461	+0	Yes	-$309	03-23 11:16
nhl col stl 2026 04 07	3	$592	300	300	+0	Avalanche	+$8	04-08 02:37
Will Shanghai Shenhua FC win on 2026-04-26?	7	$559	282	282	+0	Yes	+$4	04-26 14:24
us strikes iran by february 27 2026	3	$514	519	0	+519	No	+$5	02-28 06:55
XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-04 03:15 UTC	2	$504	550	0	+550	Down	-$4	01-04 03:29
Will the highest temperature in Zhengzhou be 27°C on September 21?	2	$503	503	0	+503	No	+$1	09-21 09:11
will crude oil cl hit low 65 by end of march 687 631 179 583 222 896 946 953 469 231 749	2	$431	220	220	+0	No	+$8	03-28 01:23
DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-22 00:35 UTC	3	$430	448	0	+448	Up	+$18	04-22 00:40
will balendra balen shah be the next prime minister of nepal	2	$418	220	220	+0	Yes	+$9	03-09 00:48
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on October 8?	3	$398	395	395	+0	Down	+$28	10-08 03:55
solana up or down january 20 1am et	2	$398	200	200	+0	Down	+$2	01-20 07:00
SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-31 08:15 UTC	6	$396	200	200	+0	Down	+$4	01-31 08:29
Will China PR vs. Turkmenistan end in a draw?	2	$393	200	200	+0	Yes	+$6	10-01 03:14
will crude oil cl hit low 75 by end of march 644 777 281 682 546 253	2	$379	192	192	+0	No	+$5	03-30 23:13
SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-04 02:45 UTC	2	$378	400	0	+400	Up	-$78	01-04 03:00
xrp up or down january 26 11pm et	5	$357	220	160	+60	Down	-$37	01-27 05:17
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-04 03:45 UTC	2	$350	400	0	+400	Down	-$50	01-04 03:59
XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-20 02:30 UTC	3	$346	350	0	+350	Up	+$4	01-20 02:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 10AM ET	4	$341	350	49	+301	Down	-$14	04-25 14:59
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-19 06:15 UTC	4	$338	420	0	+420	Down	+$82	01-19 06:29
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-10 10:15 UTC	5	$332	350	50	+300	Up	-$15	01-10 10:30
xrp up or down january 23 10pm et	7	$332	218	150	+68	Down	-$32	01-24 04:12
will bitcoin reach 94k january 19 25	4	$329	210	210	+0	No	+$38	01-25 23:49
Solana Up or Down - April 29, 11AM ET	2	$311	314	0	+314	Down	+$3	04-29 15:52

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-24 05:53:39	Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 October 19-25?	Yes	BUY	10	27¢	$3	0xed3beb…
10-24 00:01:05	Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 October 19-25?	No	SELL	26	98¢	$26	0x32961e…
10-22 11:24:45	Meta (META) Up or Down on October 22?	Up	SELL	7	22¢	$1	0x564179…
10-22 11:24:21	Meta (META) Up or Down on October 22?	Up	SELL	15	22¢	$3	0x902527…
10-21 23:41:56	Meta (META) Up or Down on October 22?	Up	BUY	86	69¢	$59	0xf18854…
10-20 10:44:57	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C on October 20?	Yes	BUY	67	99¢	$66	0x4ff49f…
10-20 10:44:51	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C on October 20?	Yes	BUY	11	98¢	$11	0x50c9b7…
10-20 08:37:20	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on October 20?	No	BUY	88	99¢	$88	0xd10784…
10-20 05:55:00	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on October 20?	No	BUY	310	99¢	$308	0xd1e856…
10-19 11:39:23	Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 October 19-25?	No	BUY	26	72¢	$19	0xbb3082…
10-16 04:32:19	tsla up or down on october 16 2026	Up	BUY	100	89¢	$89	0xa8fd73…
10-15 02:54:29	tsla up or down on october 15 2026	Down	SELL	55	73¢	$40	0xf65ac2…
10-15 02:49:11	tsla up or down on october 15 2026	Down	BUY	55	66¢	$36	0xcf9585…
10-14 11:59:33	bitcoin up or down october 14 2026 7am et	Up	BUY	20	86¢	$17	0x24e4f7…
10-14 11:44:41	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 11:40 UTC	Up	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x4453bc…
10-14 11:44:26	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 11:40 UTC	Up	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x9ceef2…
10-14 11:43:52	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 11:40 UTC	Down	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0xba152f…
10-14 10:53:10	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 10:50 UTC	Down	BUY	5	90¢	$4	0x60efa2…
10-14 09:58:25	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 09:55 UTC	Down	BUY	5	69¢	$3	0x6ee1d9…
10-14 09:53:20	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 09:50 UTC	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x1d8702…
10-14 05:23:07	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on October 14?	Yes	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0x049d14…
10-14 03:11:10	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C on October 14?	Yes	BUY	5	26¢	$1	0x31bc1b…
10-14 02:19:04	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 02:15 UTC	Up	BUY	20	92¢	$18	0x9b9810…
10-14 02:18:47	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 02:15 UTC	Up	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0xd9fdf9…
10-14 02:17:55	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 02:15 UTC	Down	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0xd562f3…
10-13 23:48:57	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 23:45 UTC	Down	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0x5cd55f…
10-13 10:57:13	bitcoin above 83200 on october 13 2026 7am et	Yes	BUY	7	98¢	$7	0x2b2a32…
10-13 10:54:17	bitcoin above 83200 on october 13 2026 7am et	Yes	BUY	14	94¢	$13	0x8b4d00…
10-13 00:12:02	amzn up or down on october 13 2026	Down	SELL	43	58¢	$25	0x25f20f…
10-13 00:11:20	amzn up or down on october 13 2026	Down	BUY	43	51¢	$22	0xa66ea7…
10-11 13:54:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	88¢	$4	0x9001b9…
10-11 10:44:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x82f399…
10-11 09:47:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x091ae2…
10-11 09:43:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x2970b9…
10-11 09:41:04	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on October 11?	No	BUY	149	100¢	$149	0xe28a86…
10-11 01:18:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Up	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0xc8bb42…
10-11 01:18:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Up	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x08f24a…
10-11 01:14:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xda1fb9…
10-11 01:12:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	82¢	$4	0xa9bf2f…
10-11 00:39:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0xe214d7…
10-10 11:11:45	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 20°C on October 10?	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x30e20b…
10-10 11:11:43	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 20°C on October 10?	Yes	BUY	158	99¢	$157	0x3ac59b…
10-10 10:47:21	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C on October 10?	No	BUY	50	99¢	$49	0x969f80…
10-10 00:44:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Down	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0xadec95…
10-10 00:44:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	82¢	$4	0xed507e…
10-10 00:43:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0xba4083…
10-09 23:28:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Down	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0x49be31…
10-09 14:14:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Up	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x9fb9e9…
10-09 14:14:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	88¢	$4	0x22895e…
10-09 14:13:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	83¢	$4	0x4b2758…
10-09 09:09:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Up	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0xa072d6…
10-09 09:08:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Down	BUY	5	84¢	$4	0xa295bc…
10-09 01:39:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Up	BUY	20	14¢	$3	0x2d9af2…
10-09 01:39:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Down	BUY	20	83¢	$17	0x9cf0ad…
10-09 01:04:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xbfeaa4…
10-09 01:03:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Up	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0xdc560d…
10-09 00:53:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Up	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0xee943a…
10-09 00:03:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Down	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0x8307a9…
10-08 23:58:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	3¢	$0	0x8c8b80…
10-08 23:55:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	66¢	$3	0xedf39f…
10-08 23:43:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0xe93a6d…
10-08 23:43:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	69¢	$3	0x91f242…
10-08 23:37:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Down	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0xa1e821…
10-08 15:54:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Up	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x0266fc…
10-08 15:53:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	72¢	$4	0x9d2317…
10-08 15:48:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Up	BUY	5	89¢	$4	0xbc88fa…
10-08 08:03:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Down	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0xc774d6…
10-08 07:59:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0xa87a4e…
10-08 07:49:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Up	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x8abf12…
10-08 07:48:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Down	BUY	5	89¢	$4	0x659b19…
10-08 03:55:47	NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on October 8?	Down	SELL	335	53¢	$178	0x94106f…
10-08 03:54:22	NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on October 8?	Down	SELL	60	58¢	$35	0x06f385…
10-08 03:52:11	NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on October 8?	Down	BUY	395	47¢	$185	0xfbaab1…
10-08 03:13:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0xa0c955…
10-08 03:13:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0x39f9ee…
10-08 03:03:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Down	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x9debe1…
10-08 02:13:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x732aab…
10-08 01:27:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	90¢	$4	0x730164…
10-08 00:53:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Up	BUY	5	87¢	$4	0x9f47d7…
10-07 13:33:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Down	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x33d34a…
10-07 13:33:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0x7e744f…
10-07 13:08:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Up	BUY	5	89¢	$4	0x9719dc…
10-07 12:51:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	67¢	$3	0xda72d8…
10-07 12:24:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Up	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x968682…
10-07 12:18:34	Ethereum Up or Down - October 7, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Up	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x313350…
10-07 12:18:08	Ethereum Up or Down - October 7, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Down	BUY	5	88¢	$4	0xfbd4e4…
10-07 11:44:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Down	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0xe6294a…
10-07 11:43:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Up	BUY	10	85¢	$8	0xa5cb69…
10-07 11:35:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Up	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0xa14aef…
10-07 11:34:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	Up	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x1add05…
10-07 11:34:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	Down	BUY	5	90¢	$4	0x53e7ad…
10-07 11:28:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	29¢	$1	0xb04801…
10-07 11:27:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0x004cee…
10-07 10:13:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0xa01928…
10-07 09:58:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x830cf0…
10-07 09:43:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x27cb15…
10-07 09:39:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Up	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0x0b2366…
10-07 09:39:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Up	BUY	55	91¢	$50	0xf9d441…
10-07 09:29:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	84¢	$4	0xa9ef17…
10-07 08:38:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Down	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0x9e467c…