Realized P&L
-$53
Unrealized P&L
+$404
Hit rate
91.6%
Resolved
14
Trades
5,369
lifetime
Volume
$842.8K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$157
Open exposure
$10.0K
23 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 06-12 12:29
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 7 days
Categories
Other
54% 67% $-201
Politics
39% 60% +$148
Crypto
3%
Tech
2%
Sports
1%
Pop-Culture
1%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 199 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +1,983 $1,450 82¢ $1.6K +$167 06-11 17:45
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No +1,100 $1,025 96¢ $1.1K +$35 06-11 17:54
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No -1,000 $-1,014 99¢ $-986 +$28 06-07 19:38
Iran coup attempt by June 30? No +846 $788 97¢ $820 +$32 06-11 08:13
Iran leadership change by June 30? No +700 $670 97¢ $678 +$8 06-07 18:18
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No -801 $-727 82¢ $-652 +$75 06-12 13:09
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? No +724 $633 84¢ $611 $-22 06-07 19:05
Netanyahu out by June 30? No +500 $480 98¢ $492 +$12 06-03 16:28
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? No +451 $375 90¢ $406 +$31 06-05 07:36
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Yes +400 $396 100¢ $400 +$4 06-05 15:34
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? No -863 $-381 44¢ $-376 +$5 06-02 19:10
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by June 30? No +400 $368 94¢ $375 +$7 06-12 02:44
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Yes -450 $-329 82¢ $-367 $-38 06-04 12:25
Will the Small Exchange self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026? No +352 $287 90¢ $318 +$31 06-06 06:29
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? No +500 $255 52¢ $258 +$2 06-12 12:29
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No -275 $-243 84¢ $-230 +$13 06-09 11:48
Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes +200 $146 92¢ $183 +$37 06-12 03:41
Steve Bannon exonerated by June 30? No +100 $54 72¢ $72 +$18 06-06 05:50
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? No +800 $111 $68 $-43 06-12 05:33
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No -41 $-20 46¢ $-19 +$1 06-10 21:39
Will Cursor be acquired before 2027? Yes +20 $17 88¢ $18 +$1 06-06 22:20
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Yes +16 $14 96¢ $15 +$1 06-10 03:32
Will Seattle Seahawks visit the White House in 2026? Yes +18 $8 34¢ $6 $-2 05-29 13:35