Probable-Amazement — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$6.77K

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

72.7%

Resolved

20,170

Trades

61,353

lifetime

Volume

$495.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$15

1 position

First seen

2026-03-09

last 10-12 17:55

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 171 days

Categories

Crypto

97% 75% +$7,271

Other

3% 31% -$500

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

67 active days in 12wk • peak 2201 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No		-16	-$15	99¢	$-15	$0	08-14 18:23

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-11 19:30 UTC	1	$907	925	0	+925	Up	+$19	04-11 19:32
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-11 07:35 UTC	1	$831	957	0	+957	Down	+$126	04-11 07:39
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-18 02:55 UTC	15	$589	710	0	+710	Down	+$117	07-18 03:00
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-24 23:25 UTC	29	$576	1,149	0	+1,149	Up	-$423	07-24 23:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	12	$576	924	0	+924	Down	+$202	07-18 03:40
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-25 03:50 UTC	13	$568	715	0	+715	Up	+$144	07-25 03:55
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-23 20:20 UTC	8	$566	829	0	+829	Up	+$263	07-23 20:25
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 23:50 UTC	21	$566	1,307	0	+1,307	Down	-$524	07-17 23:55
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-24 19:55 UTC	16	$544	897	0	+897	Up	+$340	07-24 20:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	12	$538	897	0	+897	Down	+$357	07-21 08:20
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	15	$526	616	0	+616	Up	-$73	07-21 10:10
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-24 18:30 UTC	17	$511	698	0	+698	Down	-$357	07-24 18:35
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-31 21:40 UTC	37	$503	1,055	119	+935	Up	+$253	07-31 21:45
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-14 07:40 UTC	4	$500	674	0	+674	Down	+$41	04-14 07:43
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-23 23:25 UTC	10	$497	747	0	+747	Up	+$129	07-23 23:30
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-20 21:10 UTC	12	$488	576	0	+576	Down	+$79	07-20 21:15
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-24 23:05 UTC	14	$480	606	0	+606	Up	-$86	07-24 23:10
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-19 02:35 UTC	11	$479	537	0	+537	Down	+$22	07-19 02:40
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-31 21:45 UTC	28	$479	544	77	+467	Up	-$134	07-31 21:50
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	13	$472	545	0	+545	Down	+$49	07-21 03:35
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-19 09:30 UTC	14	$471	1,050	0	+1,050	Up	-$467	07-19 09:35
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-19 01:25 UTC	10	$458	535	0	+535	Down	+$77	07-19 01:30
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-22 20:55 UTC	8	$453	547	0	+547	Down	+$92	07-22 21:00
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-14 13:45 UTC	2	$452	435	432	+3	Down	-$348	04-14 13:49
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-18 07:30 UTC	5	$452	583	0	+583	Down	+$131	07-18 07:35
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-23 08:50 UTC	9	$448	509	0	+509	Up	+$47	07-23 08:55
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-22 03:00 UTC	9	$447	526	0	+526	Down	-$9	07-22 03:05
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-18 17:45 UTC	14	$443	588	0	+588	Up	-$435	07-18 17:50
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-18 03:45 UTC	19	$432	604	0	+604	Up	+$94	07-18 03:50
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-24 01:50 UTC	10	$431	1,149	0	+1,149	Down	-$378	07-24 01:55

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-12 17:55:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0xf85498…
10-12 17:53:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Up	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x4c2225…
10-12 17:53:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Up	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0xdbc4e4…
10-12 17:50:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Up	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x489ed6…
10-12 17:50:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Up	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x37b960…
10-12 17:47:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Down	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x3c24cc…
10-12 17:45:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Down	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0xeebafa…
10-12 17:45:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Down	BUY	28	53¢	$15	0x7a2898…
10-12 17:45:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Down	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x55c93e…
10-12 17:45:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x465659…
10-12 17:45:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Down	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x591230…
10-12 17:45:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Down	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x240450…
10-12 17:45:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Down	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0xfa20c8…
10-12 17:43:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Up	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0x9ad239…
10-12 17:43:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Up	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0x2fc83b…
10-12 17:43:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Down	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0x977fa2…
10-12 17:40:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Up	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x2ab8ce…
10-12 17:40:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Up	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x16de1d…
10-12 17:37:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Down	BUY	9	78¢	$7	0xeccb43…
10-12 17:37:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Up	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x25bace…
10-12 17:36:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Up	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x5447b9…
10-12 17:36:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Up	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x38908b…
10-12 17:36:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Up	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0xe96247…
10-12 17:35:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Up	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x1103b6…
10-12 17:32:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Up	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0xee27f8…
10-12 17:32:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Up	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x55a1f0…
10-12 17:32:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Up	BUY	17	79¢	$13	0x2627b5…
10-12 17:31:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Up	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x18e6dd…
10-12 17:30:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Up	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0xf6eec5…
10-12 17:30:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Up	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x7d1e73…
10-12 17:30:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Up	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x4dc1f9…
10-12 17:30:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Up	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0xd049f4…
10-12 17:30:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Up	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x8320db…
10-12 17:28:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Down	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0xc2138a…
10-12 17:27:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Down	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x314621…
10-12 17:27:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Down	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0xe5108e…
10-12 17:27:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Down	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x5c026a…
10-12 17:25:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Down	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x4f85f4…
10-12 17:25:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Down	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x3d5986…
10-12 17:22:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Up	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0xc490fc…
10-12 17:22:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Up	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x73ef74…
10-12 17:22:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Up	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x43aff1…
10-12 17:21:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Up	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0x8874aa…
10-12 17:21:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Up	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0xd0a0dc…
10-12 17:20:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Up	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x57c9e3…
10-12 17:20:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Up	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0xdce3c4…
10-12 17:20:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Up	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0xbf4f96…
10-12 17:20:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Up	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0xd54621…
10-12 17:20:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Up	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x0f4a16…
10-12 17:19:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Down	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0xc5373b…
10-12 17:19:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Down	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x0d525a…
10-12 17:18:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Up	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x7f06ca…
10-12 17:16:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Up	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0xdde1dc…
10-12 17:16:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Up	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x08b55f…
10-12 17:15:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Up	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0xb33ee4…
10-12 17:15:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Up	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x44fead…
10-12 17:15:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Up	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x8d7f82…
10-12 17:14:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Up	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0x37ea3f…
10-12 17:12:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Up	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0xfbfc57…
10-12 17:12:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Down	BUY	45	44¢	$20	0x370a9f…
10-12 17:11:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Up	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x5b70b3…
10-12 17:10:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Up	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x7fe777…
10-12 17:10:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Down	BUY	35	51¢	$18	0x84534f…
10-12 17:10:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Up	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x88582b…
10-12 17:10:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Up	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x882bf3…
10-12 17:10:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Up	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x1cb09a…
10-12 17:09:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Up	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0xd7e3ae…
10-12 17:08:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Up	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0x393f23…
10-12 17:07:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Down	BUY	34	24¢	$8	0x590bd6…
10-12 17:07:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Up	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0xe91db8…
10-12 17:06:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Up	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x45899f…
10-12 17:05:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Up	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0xdd22f0…
10-12 17:05:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Up	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x3989b5…
10-12 17:03:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Up	BUY	22	89¢	$20	0x0dbefd…
10-12 17:03:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Down	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x1192e9…
10-12 17:02:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Down	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0xd44760…
10-12 17:02:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Down	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x96827b…
10-12 17:02:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Down	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x383a8c…
10-12 17:01:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Down	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0xe378cc…
10-12 17:01:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Down	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0x3f7616…
10-12 17:00:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Down	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x159b88…
10-12 16:57:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Down	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0xa30bc4…
10-12 16:57:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Down	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x1a8e32…
10-12 16:57:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Down	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x14d04c…
10-12 16:56:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Up	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0xff7193…
10-12 16:56:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Down	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x0746c7…
10-12 16:56:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Down	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0xdf165c…
10-12 16:55:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0xf70b0a…
10-12 16:55:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x2a4cae…
10-12 16:55:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0xd2db1c…
10-12 16:55:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x817515…
10-12 16:52:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Down	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x475278…
10-12 16:52:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Down	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x381a32…
10-12 16:50:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Down	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0xcd836d…
10-12 16:50:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Down	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0xe29bb5…
10-12 16:50:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Down	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0xc0fa57…
10-12 16:50:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Down	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0x798e5b…
10-12 16:50:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Down	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0xf6c47d…
10-12 16:50:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Down	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0xa55238…
10-12 16:50:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Down	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x3783b1…