Flaky-Territory — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$172

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

78.1%

Resolved

Trades

115

lifetime

Volume

$24.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$210

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-14

last 06-02 16:18

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 9 days

Categories

Crypto

99% 56% +$172

Other

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

57 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (9) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 10?	2	$3.2K	2,078	2,078	+0	Up	+$830	05-10 15:14
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 9?	2	$1.9K	1,735	1,735	+0	Up	+$684	05-09 03:23
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 5?	2	$1.7K	1,091	1,091	+0	Up	+$474	05-05 14:38
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 6?	2	$934	682	682	+0	Up	+$334	05-06 11:41
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 1?	2	$930	639	639	+0	open	—	05-01 13:19
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 8?	2	$850	555	555	+0	Up	+$250	05-08 15:55
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 4?	2	$838	556	556	+0	open	—	05-04 14:47
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 14?	1	$600	1,215	0	+1,215	open	—	05-13 15:59
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 12?	1	$600	1,071	0	+1,071	Down	$-600	05-11 17:01
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 11?	1	$600	1,253	0	+1,253	Down	$-600	05-10 17:13
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 7?	1	$600	1,416	0	+1,416	Down	$-600	05-06 19:03
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 13?	1	$600	1,140	0	+1,140	Down	$-600	05-12 16:37
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 2?	1	$600	1,437	0	+1,437	open	—	05-01 16:35
bitcoin up or down on march 17 2026	2	$587	408	402	+6	open	—	03-17 14:45
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 30?	2	$438	290	290	+0	open	—	04-30 15:44
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 28?	2	$431	294	284	+10	open	—	04-28 15:21
bitcoin up or down on march 14 2026	1	$400	832	0	+832	open	—	03-13 16:02
bitcoin up or down on march 18 2026	1	$400	755	0	+755	open	—	03-17 16:11
bitcoin up or down on march 11	1	$300	652	0	+652	open	—	03-10 16:02
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 29?	1	$300	550	0	+550	open	—	04-28 16:50
bitcoin up or down on february 13	3	$297	392	182	+211	open	—	02-12 19:26
bitcoin up or down on march 7	2	$296	200	197	+3	open	—	03-07 16:20
bitcoin up or down on march 27 2026	2	$293	196	193	+3	open	—	03-27 15:42
bitcoin up or down on march 23 2026	2	$293	196	193	+3	open	—	03-23 15:50
bitcoin up or down on april 17 2026	2	$291	200	193	+7	open	—	04-17 14:00
fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	3	$282	3,937	3,381	+556	open	—	01-19 12:08
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 22?	2	$247	187	187	+0	open	—	05-22 15:39
bitcoin up or down on february 9	4	$238	196	196	+0	open	—	02-09 15:22
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 23?	2	$233	160	160	+0	open	—	05-23 08:54
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 27?	2	$214	145	140	+5	open	—	04-27 15:22

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-02 16:18:48	Bitcoin Up or Down on June 3?	Up	BUY	43	69¢	$30	0xded9f2…
05-31 19:54:13	Bitcoin Up or Down on June 1?	Up	BUY	63	46¢	$29	0xc6d9b1…
05-28 23:42:40	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 29?	Down	BUY	293	26¢	$75	0x2ade7f…
05-24 16:25:19	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 25?	Down	BUY	354	42¢	$150	0xfd5831…
05-23 08:54:02	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 23?	Down	SELL	160	99¢	$158	0xfb4edf…
05-22 16:19:11	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 23?	Down	BUY	160	47¢	$75	0xf39d86…
05-22 15:39:17	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 22?	Down	SELL	187	99¢	$185	0x8d2ff9…
05-21 23:47:58	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 22?	Down	BUY	187	33¢	$62	0x0a5795…
05-19 16:35:41	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 20?	Down	BUY	179	42¢	$75	0xa0bf23…
05-18 16:24:10	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 19?	Down	BUY	430	46¢	$198	0xfcdf38…
05-13 15:59:42	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 14?	Down	BUY	1,215	49¢	$600	0xf5d03e…
05-12 16:37:10	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 13?	Up	BUY	1,140	53¢	$600	0x8b3ebd…
05-11 17:01:11	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 12?	Up	BUY	1,071	56¢	$600	0xbf7a5a…
05-10 17:13:34	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 11?	Up	BUY	1,253	48¢	$600	0x059c20…
05-10 15:14:51	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 10?	Up	SELL	2,078	98¢	$2,030	0x996b7e…
05-09 16:43:53	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 10?	Up	BUY	2,078	58¢	$1,200	0xa090cd…
05-09 03:23:57	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 9?	Up	SELL	1,735	74¢	$1,284	0xe34c61…
05-08 16:39:56	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 9?	Up	BUY	1,735	35¢	$600	0x633632…
05-08 15:55:06	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 8?	Up	SELL	555	99¢	$550	0x4499f1…
05-07 16:31:47	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 8?	Up	BUY	555	54¢	$300	0xc00da5…
05-06 19:03:47	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 7?	Up	BUY	1,416	42¢	$600	0x7c02c1…
05-06 11:41:00	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 6?	Up	SELL	682	93¢	$634	0x577b30…
05-05 16:36:26	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 6?	Up	BUY	682	44¢	$300	0xeb2a06…
05-05 14:38:20	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 5?	Up	SELL	1,091	98¢	$1,074	0x9a9ce3…
05-04 17:04:24	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 5?	Up	BUY	1,091	55¢	$600	0x215d37…
05-04 14:47:46	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 4?	Up	SELL	556	97¢	$538	0x37dcb2…
05-03 19:44:54	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 4?	Up	BUY	556	54¢	$300	0x1ada3b…
05-03 10:21:02	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 3?	Up	BUY	285	53¢	$150	0x7ce7c7…
05-01 16:35:04	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 2?	Up	BUY	1,437	42¢	$600	0x5bf458…
05-01 13:19:24	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 1?	Up	SELL	639	99¢	$630	0x7f9241…
04-30 16:28:40	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 1?	Up	BUY	639	47¢	$300	0xfd28f4…
04-30 15:44:46	Bitcoin Up or Down on April 30?	Up	SELL	290	99¢	$288	0x9ce366…
04-29 16:33:14	Bitcoin Up or Down on April 30?	Up	BUY	290	52¢	$150	0x8fc9d4…
04-28 16:50:44	Bitcoin Up or Down on April 29?	Down	BUY	550	55¢	$300	0xfa366b…
04-28 15:21:00	Bitcoin Up or Down on April 28?	Down	SELL	284	99¢	$281	0x8c1e04…
04-27 16:40:08	Bitcoin Up or Down on April 28?	Down	BUY	294	51¢	$150	0xa02f1a…
04-27 15:22:10	Bitcoin Up or Down on April 27?	Down	SELL	140	100¢	$139	0x212249…
04-26 16:18:48	Bitcoin Up or Down on April 27?	Down	BUY	145	52¢	$75	0x7fb5c2…
04-25 16:28:32	Bitcoin Up or Down on April 26?	Down	BUY	150	50¢	$75	0xd37f85…
04-24 16:12:02	Bitcoin Up or Down on April 25?	Up	BUY	155	48¢	$75	0x6b0899…
04-23 16:11:52	bitcoin up or down on april 24 2026	Up	BUY	149	50¢	$75	0xe36d53…
04-22 16:13:16	bitcoin up or down on april 23 2026	Up	BUY	162	46¢	$75	0x51651f…
04-21 16:27:12	bitcoin up or down on april 22 2026	Down	BUY	150	50¢	$75	0x8e7301…
04-20 16:41:38	bitcoin up or down on april 21 2026	Up	BUY	312	48¢	$150	0x7f3be5…
04-19 16:21:30	bitcoin up or down on april 20 2026	Down	BUY	182	55¢	$100	0x7d377e…
04-19 15:33:14	bitcoin up or down on april 19 2026	Down	SELL	100	77¢	$77	0xecce97…
04-18 16:31:28	bitcoin up or down on april 19 2026	Down	BUY	104	48¢	$50	0xb7d88e…
04-17 16:17:04	bitcoin up or down on april 18 2026	Up	BUY	91	55¢	$50	0x76b6a8…
04-17 14:00:54	bitcoin up or down on april 17 2026	Up	SELL	193	99¢	$191	0xcf88fa…
04-16 16:14:28	bitcoin up or down on april 17 2026	Up	BUY	200	50¢	$100	0xf0f626…
04-16 15:45:58	bitcoin up or down on april 16 2026	Up	SELL	85	99¢	$84	0xd66cf2…
04-15 16:18:32	bitcoin up or down on april 16 2026	Up	BUY	88	57¢	$50	0x35843a…
04-14 16:28:24	bitcoin up or down on april 15 2026	Up	BUY	51	49¢	$25	0x715e4e…
04-14 16:16:49	bitcoin up or down on april 15 2026	Up	BUY	47	53¢	$25	0xfb0525…
04-07 16:00:05	bitcoin up or down on april 8 2026	Down	BUY	94	50¢	$47	0x006dcd…
04-05 16:17:25	bitcoin up or down on april 6 2026	Down	BUY	100	50¢	$50	0xc90c98…
04-04 17:04:27	bitcoin up or down on april 5 2026	Down	BUY	48	52¢	$25	0x4df7a1…
04-03 16:09:23	bitcoin up or down on april 4 2026	Down	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0xbc79eb…
04-02 16:02:11	bitcoin up or down on april 3 2026	Down	BUY	98	51¢	$50	0x8af26f…
04-01 16:49:33	bitcoin up or down on april 2 2026	Up	BUY	196	51¢	$100	0xf3b37d…
04-01 16:38:07	bitcoin up or down on april 1 2026	Up	SELL	92	100¢	$92	0x54bd15…
03-31 16:03:29	bitcoin up or down on april 1 2026	Up	BUY	95	52¢	$50	0xeb7e98…
03-30 16:06:01	bitcoin up or down on march 31 2026	Up	BUY	109	46¢	$50	0x3a3d2e…
03-30 09:43:14	bitcoin up or down on march 30 2026	Down	BUY	283	18¢	$50	0x2a5fd5…
03-28 16:03:59	bitcoin up or down on march 29 2026	Up	BUY	100	50¢	$50	0xb6c677…
03-27 16:02:39	bitcoin up or down on march 28 2026	Down	BUY	392	51¢	$200	0x5e3cde…
03-27 15:42:41	bitcoin up or down on march 27 2026	Down	SELL	193	100¢	$193	0x756be9…
03-26 16:07:37	bitcoin up or down on march 27 2026	Down	BUY	196	51¢	$100	0x37575c…
03-25 16:05:13	bitcoin up or down on march 26 2026	Down	BUY	98	51¢	$50	0xc626de…
03-24 16:02:49	bitcoin up or down on march 25 2026	Down	BUY	98	51¢	$50	0x8debc5…
03-23 16:02:33	bitcoin up or down on march 24 2026	Up	BUY	377	53¢	$200	0x22a967…
03-23 15:50:43	bitcoin up or down on march 23 2026	Up	SELL	193	100¢	$193	0x1109fc…
03-22 16:04:41	bitcoin up or down on march 23 2026	Up	BUY	196	51¢	$100	0x8aa617…
03-22 15:02:21	bitcoin up or down on march 22 2026	Down	SELL	98	99¢	$98	0xe29897…
03-21 16:05:37	bitcoin up or down on march 22 2026	Down	BUY	100	50¢	$50	0xba3095…
03-20 16:03:45	bitcoin up or down on march 21 2026	Down	BUY	100	50¢	$50	0xe7ccc0…
03-20 13:10:55	bitcoin up or down on march 20 2026	Down	BUY	147	17¢	$25	0xa0c48a…
03-19 16:04:17	bitcoin up or down on march 20 2026	Down	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0x4530af…
03-18 16:06:47	bitcoin up or down on march 19 2026	Up	BUY	341	49¢	$167	0x3818ac…
03-17 16:11:11	bitcoin up or down on march 18 2026	Up	BUY	755	53¢	$400	0xf0555b…
03-17 14:45:31	bitcoin up or down on march 17 2026	Up	SELL	402	96¢	$387	0x1cfee9…
03-16 16:03:27	bitcoin up or down on march 17 2026	Up	BUY	408	49¢	$200	0x0013a4…
03-13 16:02:45	bitcoin up or down on march 14 2026	Up	BUY	832	48¢	$400	0x0f0272…
03-11 16:02:45	bitcoin up or down on march 12	Up	BUY	392	51¢	$200	0xc361ac…
03-10 16:02:23	bitcoin up or down on march 11	Up	BUY	652	46¢	$300	0x9e49bd…
03-07 16:20:49	bitcoin up or down on march 7	Down	SELL	197	99¢	$196	0xee2c7e…
03-06 17:02:23	bitcoin up or down on march 7	Down	BUY	200	50¢	$100	0x4338b7…
02-27 14:45:15	bitcoin up or down on february 27	Down	BUY	53	91¢	$48	0x008a10…
02-17 14:32:25	bitcoin up or down on february 17	Up	SELL	78	62¢	$48	0xce7449…
02-16 20:56:07	bitcoin up or down on february 17	Up	BUY	78	64¢	$50	0xfbafd0…
02-15 16:52:15	bitcoin up or down on february 16	Up	BUY	97	51¢	$50	0xfedcad…
02-13 17:00:11	bitcoin up or down on february 14	Down	BUY	98	51¢	$50	0x13369c…
02-12 19:26:25	bitcoin up or down on february 13	Down	BUY	211	47¢	$99	0xac8f66…
02-12 19:25:39	bitcoin up or down on february 13	Up	SELL	182	54¢	$98	0x8c5a32…
02-12 17:09:27	bitcoin up or down on february 13	Up	BUY	182	55¢	$100	0xfdbd2d…
02-12 17:04:25	bitcoin up or down on february 12	Down	SELL	91	100¢	$91	0xf5ec50…
02-11 16:55:19	bitcoin up or down on february 12	Down	BUY	91	55¢	$50	0xa4c1ea…
02-09 17:00:11	bitcoin up or down on february 10	Up	BUY	200	50¢	$100	0xa7e5ba…
02-09 15:22:55	bitcoin up or down on february 9	Down	SELL	100	95¢	$95	0xb477a2…
02-08 23:46:03	bitcoin up or down on february 9	Down	BUY	100	50¢	$50	0x73bff3…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
Austere-Heavy 0xeee9…7ecb	78	$1.20M	20,143	06-03 15:17
Pesky-Hole 0xfdc0…e6a1	77	$151.4K	1,075	06-02 18:53
Oily-Container 0x0fe4…01b7	76	$2.10M	15,874	06-03 15:13
New-Guide 0x8ff0…a0ed	76	$53.8K	2,918	06-03 15:09
Jaunty-Towel 0xe0d1…82b1	76	$19.3K	643	06-02 18:53
(anonymous) 0x997c…251e	74	$644.5K	26,934	06-03 15:14
Mushy-Buck 0x801d…d8e0	70	$58.0K	597	06-02 16:08
Clear-Tower 0xddcd…725f	67	$1.16K	567	06-03 15:49