Harmless-Buzzard — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$390

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

55.8%

Resolved

Trades

380

lifetime

Volume

$12.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$33

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-22

last 08-12 15:21

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

42% 25% $-360

Other

39% — —

Tech

11% — —

Politics

8% 0% $-30

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

58 active days in 12wk • peak 18 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	10	$628	400	500	-100	open	—	06-15 10:41
megaeth fdv above 1b one day after launch	2	$618	365	358	+7	open	—	04-30 10:29
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch?	4	$603	368	368	+0	open	—	03-23 13:48
Over $10M committed to the Printr public sale?	5	$595	602	602	+0	open	—	04-29 23:15
Over $3M committed to the Fluent public sale?	2	$566	333	327	+6	open	—	04-13 11:07
City Protocol FDV above $500M one day after launch?	15	$558	389	389	+0	open	—	08-10 20:11
Katana FDV above $200M one day after launch?	3	$557	320	320	+0	No	+$45	03-18 13:27
over 35m committed to the laso finance public sale 555 417	6	$449	300	300	+0	open	—	07-04 16:15
City Protocol FDV above $350M one day after launch?	11	$401	613	88	+525	open	—	06-17 10:51
over 10m committed to the ripcars public sale 20260720205129606	2	$393	192	300	-108	open	—	07-21 17:29
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	13	$370	450	450	+0	open	—	06-24 17:39
Over $15M committed to the Printr public sale?	4	$369	500	300	+200	open	—	04-29 23:47
over 35m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325653 212	3	$340	200	200	+0	open	—	07-17 18:26
GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch?	5	$328	500	200	+300	open	—	07-30 02:50
over 5m committed to the laso finance public sale	7	$304	400	400	+0	open	—	06-30 18:37
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	4	$292	200	161	+39	open	—	05-31 14:42
GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?	2	$291	189	189	+0	open	—	07-31 12:39
will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt1t by june 30	2	$284	200	200	+0	open	—	06-17 21:16
grok 4pt6 released by august 11 2026	5	$284	200	200	+0	open	—	08-11 16:28
Ink FDV above $500M one day after launch?	6	$274	0	527	-527	open	—	06-30 21:53
over 8m committed to the ripcars public sale 20260720205129604	2	$250	150	150	+0	open	—	07-21 17:27
Billions FDV above $300M one day after launch?	17	$247	387	408	-21	Yes	$-244	05-05 18:36
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	2	$236	400	400	+0	open	—	05-30 14:10
GRVT FDV above $500M one day after launch?	7	$213	300	0	+300	open	—	07-11 03:17
Abstract FDV above $200M one day after launch?	7	$184	81	269	-188	open	—	08-06 23:23
megaeth fdv above 1pt6b one day after launch	2	$182	250	250	+0	open	—	05-01 21:11
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	9	$178	1,500	0	+1,500	open	—	06-01 12:01
will anthropic ipo by december 31 2026 546 128	2	$172	700	0	+700	open	—	08-12 04:41
will the next claude opus model be released by july 27 2026	10	$167	400	0	+400	open	—	07-24 14:12
Over $6M committed to the Printr public sale?	5	$165	163	163	+0	open	—	04-30 07:09

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-12 15:21:55	grok 4pt6 released by august 14 2026 20260804192931964 932 684 491	No	BUY	47	7¢	$3	0x6f4b89…
08-12 13:35:40	grok 4pt6 released by august 14 2026 20260804192931964 932 684 491	No	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0xba0e2f…
08-12 04:41:24	will anthropic ipo by december 31 2026 546 128	No	BUY	100	16¢	$16	0x448e81…
08-11 17:57:52	grok 4pt6 released by august 21 2026	No	BUY	50	6¢	$3	0x0df78f…
08-11 16:28:07	grok 4pt6 released by august 11 2026	No	SELL	75	91¢	$68	0x9d788c…
08-11 16:27:51	grok 4pt6 released by august 11 2026	No	SELL	106	91¢	$96	0x5a1ac9…
08-11 16:27:36	grok 4pt6 released by august 11 2026	No	SELL	20	91¢	$18	0x891fc0…
08-11 10:47:54	grok 4pt6 released by august 14 2026 20260804192931964 932 684 491	No	BUY	2	7¢	$0	0x2e692f…
08-11 10:47:45	grok 4pt6 released by august 14 2026 20260804192931964 932 684 491	No	BUY	2	7¢	$0	0xb24dfb…
08-11 01:00:37	will anthropic ipo by december 31 2026 546 128	No	BUY	600	26¢	$156	0xb75cea…
08-10 22:26:31	grok 4pt6 released by august 14 2026 20260804192931964 932 684 491	No	BUY	56	13¢	$7	0xa205f5…
08-10 22:26:27	grok 4pt6 released by august 14 2026 20260804192931964 932 684 491	No	BUY	5	13¢	$1	0x347591…
08-10 22:26:27	grok 4pt6 released by august 14 2026 20260804192931964 932 684 491	No	BUY	2	13¢	$0	0x22dc2a…
08-10 22:25:55	grok 4pt6 released by august 11 2026	No	BUY	195	51¢	$99	0x0603a1…
08-10 22:20:18	grok 4pt6 released by august 21 2026	No	BUY	100	7¢	$7	0x763fa2…
08-10 22:11:22	grok 4pt6 released by august 11 2026	No	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0xe63054…
08-10 20:11:28	City Protocol FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	SELL	39	80¢	$32	0xde1776…
08-10 06:59:09	grok 4pt6 released by august 14 2026 20260804192931964	No	BUY	3	15¢	$0	0x3099db…
08-10 06:41:06	grok 4pt6 released by august 14 2026 20260804192931964	No	BUY	34	15¢	$5	0x89d241…
08-07 12:10:09	will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 7 2026	Yes	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0x82e3cb…
08-07 00:54:54	will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 7 2026	Yes	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0x6e0b78…
08-06 23:23:45	Abstract FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	SELL	151	62¢	$94	0xf21903…
08-06 23:22:17	Abstract FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	SELL	30	62¢	$19	0x176735…
08-06 18:53:50	will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 7 2026	Yes	BUY	313	1¢	$4	0xe6c3b9…
08-06 17:51:48	will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 7 2026	Yes	BUY	187	1¢	$2	0xd72e40…
08-05 22:05:39	will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 7 2026	Yes	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0x567e05…
08-05 19:22:59	will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 7 2026	Yes	BUY	91	8¢	$7	0x9afd86…
08-05 19:20:02	will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 7 2026	Yes	BUY	9	8¢	$1	0x1f2600…
08-05 17:14:15	will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 14 2026	No	SELL	150	30¢	$45	0xee7088…
08-05 17:13:45	will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 21 2026	No	SELL	13	10¢	$1	0x58df5b…
08-04 15:25:03	will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 21 2026	No	BUY	3	6¢	$0	0x388974…
08-04 15:01:38	will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 21 2026	No	BUY	10	6¢	$1	0xa743b6…
08-04 13:05:50	will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 14 2026	No	BUY	50	11¢	$6	0xc936d0…
08-04 02:22:15	will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 14 2026	No	BUY	93	8¢	$7	0xf30cb4…
08-03 21:06:15	will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 14 2026	No	BUY	7	8¢	$1	0xb6083e…
07-31 18:00:12	grvt fdv above 350m one day after launch	Yes	SELL	0	2¢	$0	0xc62ac0…
07-31 17:56:23	grvt fdv above 350m one day after launch	Yes	SELL	157	8¢	$13	0x158583…
07-31 13:04:51	grvt fdv above 600m one day after launch	Yes	SELL	89	0¢	$0	0xc42ef7…
07-31 12:39:06	GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	189	95¢	$179	0x9aaff4…
07-31 11:32:09	grvt fdv above 350m one day after launch	Yes	SELL	42	7¢	$3	0x7dd952…
07-31 11:29:38	grvt fdv above 600m one day after launch	Yes	SELL	11	0¢	$0	0x535cd5…
07-31 11:22:12	grvt fdv above 600m one day after launch	Yes	SELL	300	0¢	$1	0x75a497…
07-31 10:03:39	GRVT FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	410	0¢	$0	0xa91bd2…
07-31 08:24:15	Abstract FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	SELL	1	62¢	$1	0xf9c333…
07-30 16:02:18	GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	189	59¢	$112	0x5f5de0…
07-30 14:37:24	grvt fdv above 600m one day after launch	Yes	BUY	100	4¢	$4	0xbc9a9b…
07-30 13:27:27	grvt fdv above 600m one day after launch	Yes	BUY	123	9¢	$11	0xc1a56b…
07-30 13:10:26	grvt fdv above 600m one day after launch	Yes	BUY	52	9¢	$5	0x86b30d…
07-30 12:43:26	grvt fdv above 600m one day after launch	Yes	BUY	120	9¢	$11	0x82dbf6…
07-30 12:14:09	grvt fdv above 400m one day after launch	Yes	BUY	50	29¢	$14	0x79e7e2…
07-30 12:11:02	grvt fdv above 400m one day after launch	Yes	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x2f2b16…
07-30 10:13:18	grvt fdv above 350m one day after launch	Yes	BUY	26	59¢	$15	0x352e12…
07-30 02:50:33	GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	300	68¢	$204	0xecbfd4…
07-29 23:33:08	GRVT FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	400	3¢	$11	0xd75cdb…
07-29 21:46:20	GRVT FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	10	3¢	$0	0x6c5c7f…
07-29 08:11:09	grvt fdv above 400m one day after launch	Yes	BUY	169	41¢	$69	0x128c55…
07-28 19:21:37	grvt fdv above 600m one day after launch	Yes	BUY	5	13¢	$1	0x7f5737…
07-28 16:02:37	grvt fdv above 400m one day after launch	Yes	BUY	28	36¢	$10	0x21094c…
07-28 13:40:01	GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	SELL	126	27¢	$34	0x0593ef…
07-28 13:20:26	GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	SELL	74	27¢	$20	0x5f6381…
07-28 05:40:22	Abstract FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	SELL	30	62¢	$19	0xc20ae5…
07-28 05:40:15	Abstract FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	SELL	26	62¢	$16	0x2996e5…
07-28 05:40:12	Abstract FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	SELL	30	62¢	$19	0xb20529…
07-24 15:35:07	over 32pt5m committed to the ripcars public sale	No	BUY	400	25¢	$100	0x3cde05…
07-24 14:12:43	will the next claude opus model be released by july 27 2026	No	BUY	32	29¢	$9	0x33e31f…
07-24 14:04:49	will the next claude opus model be released by july 27 2026	No	BUY	18	29¢	$5	0x86990c…
07-24 14:04:40	will the next claude opus model be released by july 27 2026	No	BUY	50	30¢	$15	0xfe4e24…
07-24 13:42:52	will the next claude opus model be released by july 27 2026	No	BUY	50	36¢	$18	0x947ba7…
07-24 12:48:16	will the next claude opus model be released by july 27 2026	No	BUY	50	41¢	$20	0xdb4616…
07-24 12:28:21	will the next claude opus model be released by july 27 2026	No	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0x182ea4…
07-24 12:28:10	will the next claude opus model be released by july 27 2026	No	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0x4046cb…
07-24 12:28:07	will the next claude opus model be released by july 27 2026	No	BUY	46	53¢	$24	0x8df0cd…
07-24 10:26:04	will the next claude opus model be released by july 27 2026	No	BUY	19	49¢	$9	0xd3fb17…
07-24 10:02:22	will the next claude opus model be released by july 27 2026	No	BUY	35	44¢	$15	0xbf3e95…
07-23 16:56:22	will the next claude opus model be released by july 23 2026	No	SELL	100	89¢	$89	0xac24e3…
07-23 05:48:07	will the next claude opus model be released by july 31 2026 20260709185050343 272 345 875 539 124	No	SELL	495	5¢	$24	0x8e5be0…
07-23 04:05:52	will the next claude opus model be released by july 24 2026 231 543	No	SELL	0	11¢	$0	0x964afc…
07-23 01:06:31	will the next claude opus model be released by july 24 2026 231 543	No	SELL	10	13¢	$1	0x3a5ca7…
07-23 01:06:31	will the next claude opus model be released by july 24 2026 231 543	No	SELL	254	13¢	$33	0x122df5…
07-23 00:42:46	will the next claude opus model be released by july 31 2026 20260709185050343 272 345 875 539 124	No	SELL	5	8¢	$0	0x066efc…
07-23 00:40:12	will the next claude opus model be released by july 24 2026 231 543	No	SELL	36	35¢	$12	0xb7c99b…
07-22 17:21:33	will the next claude opus model be released by july 31 2026 20260709185050343 272 345 875	No	BUY	44	17¢	$7	0x9a71d7…
07-22 11:16:27	will the next claude opus model be released by july 31 2026 20260709185050343 272 345 875	No	BUY	13	17¢	$2	0x715b2b…
07-22 10:03:21	will the next claude opus model be released by july 31 2026 20260709185050343 272 345 875	No	BUY	43	17¢	$7	0xab789b…
07-21 17:29:10	over 10m committed to the ripcars public sale 20260720205129606	Yes	SELL	300	99¢	$298	0xff74d3…
07-21 17:29:06	over 9m committed to the ripcars public sale 20260720205129605	Yes	SELL	150	99¢	$148	0x9aa54f…
07-21 17:27:01	over 8m committed to the ripcars public sale 20260720205129604	Yes	SELL	150	99¢	$148	0x15dc97…
07-21 15:06:00	over 10m committed to the ripcars public sale 20260720205129606	Yes	BUY	192	50¢	$96	0x767f73…
07-21 14:32:48	over 8m committed to the ripcars public sale 20260720205129604	Yes	BUY	150	68¢	$102	0xc672bb…
07-18 11:03:22	will the next claude opus model be released by july 24 2026 231	No	BUY	100	24¢	$24	0x333a24…
07-18 04:13:42	will the next claude opus model be released by july 31 2026 20260709185050343 272 345 875	No	BUY	100	8¢	$8	0x3f39c3…
07-17 20:14:39	will the next claude opus model be released by july 31 2026 20260709185050343 272 345 875	No	BUY	200	17¢	$34	0x977ed2…
07-17 18:26:49	over 35m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325653 212	No	SELL	200	100¢	$200	0x70cf42…
07-17 13:24:25	over 30m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325652	No	SELL	130	0¢	$0	0x92d0fa…
07-17 12:56:58	over 35m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325653 212	No	BUY	190	70¢	$133	0x798eef…
07-17 12:51:51	over 35m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325653 212	No	BUY	10	70¢	$7	0xa4bf01…
07-17 12:07:48	over 30m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325652	No	SELL	70	3¢	$2	0xd56404…
07-17 08:00:45	will the next claude opus model be released by july 24 2026 231	No	BUY	84	38¢	$32	0xfbb47e…
07-17 07:34:31	will the next claude opus model be released by july 24 2026 231	No	BUY	16	38¢	$6	0x43a568…
07-16 18:22:17	will the next claude opus model be released by july 31 2026 20260709185050343 272 345 875	No	BUY	100	30¢	$30	0x77ed2b…