Those-Orientation — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

+$9.60K

Unrealized P&L

-$358

Hit rate

70.1%

Resolved (90d)

212

Trades (90d)

2,092

37,200 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$44.0K

$6.37M lifetime

Avg / trade

$171

Open exposure

$114

1 position

First seen

2026-01-29

last 10-13 06:57

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 156 days

Categories

Other

100% 87% +$65,350

Politics

0% 17% -$385

Sports

0% 20% -$21

Crypto

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

39 active days in 12wk • peak 404 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	Yes		+1,751	$472	6¢	$114	-$358	09-20 20:25

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
highest temperature in atlanta on march 28 2026 60 61f	4	$36.5K	36,566	0	+36,566	No	+$39	03-28 17:53
highest temperature in seoul on february 6 2026 neg 5c	69	$26.1K	15,593	10,600	+4,993	No	+$46	02-05 16:33
highest temperature in seattle on february 15 2026 42 43f	8	$17.5K	10,002	7,502	+2,500	No	+$3	02-15 22:43
highest temperature in moscow on april 23 2026 9corhigher	12	$14.8K	14,800	0	+14,800	Yes	+$38	04-23 06:33
highest temperature in seoul on march 10 2026 6c	22	$14.1K	4,986	9,152	-4,166	No	-$4	03-10 10:33
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C or below on May 8?	14	$13.0K	13,020	0	+13,020	No	+$19	05-08 15:44
highest temperature in london on february 24 2026 15c	43	$12.9K	13,189	455	+12,734	No	-$375	02-24 13:28
highest temperature in london on february 6 2026 9c	6	$12.8K	10,242	2,560	+7,681	No	+$26	02-06 11:55
highest temperature in london on april 9 2026 21c	9	$12.5K	12,499	0	+12,499	No	+$26	04-09 14:03
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 30?	12	$12.5K	8,768	8,768	+0	No	+$5,056	04-30 15:57
highest temperature in london on march 22 2026 12c	30	$12.0K	13,089	372	+12,717	No	-$30	03-22 14:46
highest temperature in london on february 11 2026 10c	6	$11.5K	7,849	3,743	+4,107	No	+$53	02-11 08:01
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 5?	9	$11.5K	11,536	0	+11,536	No	+$12	05-05 11:56
highest temperature in seoul on february 6 2026 neg 4c	25	$10.7K	7,982	2,752	+5,230	Yes	+$16	02-06 13:59
highest temperature in paris on april 16 2026 18c	12	$10.0K	10,105	0	+10,105	No	+$82	04-16 14:32
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on May 4?	12	$10.0K	10,010	0	+10,010	No	+$10	05-04 14:56
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on May 10?	13	$10.0K	10,010	0	+10,010	No	+$10	05-10 05:21
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on May 6?	14	$10.0K	10,010	0	+10,010	No	+$10	05-06 19:01
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on May 7?	13	$10.0K	10,010	0	+10,010	No	+$10	05-07 17:35
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on May 8?	11	$10.0K	10,100	0	+10,100	No	+$101	05-08 13:42
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 6°C on May 4?	14	$10.0K	10,010	0	+10,010	No	+$12	05-04 10:44
highest temperature in london on february 13 2026 7c	8	$9.8K	9,916	122	+9,795	No	-$3	02-13 10:52
highest temperature in lagos on april 23 2026 28corbelow	1	$9.7K	9,694	0	+9,694	No	+$10	04-23 20:30
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on May 9?	22	$9.0K	9,009	0	+9,009	No	+$9	05-10 00:45
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on May 10?	9	$9.0K	9,009	0	+9,009	No	+$9	05-10 16:54
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on May 3?	20	$9.0K	9,090	0	+9,090	No	+$91	05-03 20:04
highest temperature in london on march 10 2026 13c	12	$8.3K	5,529	2,935	+2,594	No	+$188	03-10 15:01
highest temperature in london on march 20 2026 13c	49	$8.2K	8,911	751	+8,159	No	+$156	03-20 14:28
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on May 10?	12	$8.0K	8,008	0	+8,008	No	+$8	05-10 04:32
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on May 3?	22	$8.0K	8,008	0	+8,008	No	+$8	05-04 00:15

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-13 06:57:43	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on October 13?	Yes	BUY	111	6¢	$6	0x5eaa86…
10-10 09:06:43	Will a hurricane make landfall in Alabama by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	93	10¢	$10	0x5f0b9b…
10-10 09:04:46	Will a hurricane make landfall in Mississippi by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	70	4¢	$3	0xb58d20…
10-10 09:04:37	Will a hurricane make landfall in Louisiana by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	195	6¢	$11	0xf725da…
10-07 20:53:23	Will Isaias make landfall in Florida as a hurricane?	Yes	BUY	100	45¢	$45	0xfdb345…
10-07 12:33:20	Will there be 0 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	4¢	$0	0xccc885…
10-07 12:33:20	Will there be 0 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?	Yes	SELL	114	6¢	$7	0x2dc73a…
10-07 09:16:08	Will the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season be Fay?	No	SELL	17	100¢	$17	0x711c28…
10-07 09:05:42	Will the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season be Fay?	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x97a515…
10-07 09:02:59	Will the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season be Fay?	No	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0xe65200…
10-07 08:12:48	Will the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season be Fay?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x1b63f2…
10-07 02:35:39	Will the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season be Fay?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xd70273…
10-07 02:35:32	Will the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season be Fay?	No	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0x238095…
10-07 02:35:18	Will the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season be Fay?	No	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0xa7d8e6…
10-07 02:35:17	Will the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season be Fay?	No	SELL	504	100¢	$503	0xa36b18…
10-06 21:13:42	Will a hurricane make landfall in Alabama by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	60	35¢	$21	0xcfd177…
10-06 21:01:33	Will a hurricane make landfall in Mississippi by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	70	16¢	$12	0x06367f…
10-06 21:01:29	Will a hurricane make landfall in Alabama by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	33	20¢	$7	0xb7746c…
10-06 20:59:17	Will a hurricane make landfall in Louisiana by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	31	30¢	$9	0x89bb94…
10-06 20:59:14	Will a hurricane make landfall in Louisiana by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	164	26¢	$43	0x7ba5d4…
10-06 20:43:53	Will there be 0 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	9¢	$4	0x07b098…
10-06 20:43:45	Will there be 0 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?	Yes	SELL	45	10¢	$4	0xed7e28…
10-06 20:43:20	Will there be 1-3 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?	Yes	BUY	520	74¢	$385	0x88081a…
10-06 20:42:08	Will there be 0 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?	Yes	SELL	775	10¢	$78	0x26b770…
10-05 17:56:02	Will there be 1-3 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?	Yes	BUY	66	40¢	$27	0x381fca…
10-05 17:55:49	Will there be 0 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?	Yes	SELL	214	54¢	$116	0x698896…
10-05 17:55:49	Will there be 0 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	51¢	$3	0x5e5905…
10-05 15:08:07	Will a hurricane make landfall in Florida by November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	99	71¢	$70	0x4e826d…
10-05 15:05:19	Will there be 0 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	59¢	$3	0xc8b7ce…
10-05 15:05:19	Will there be 0 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?	Yes	SELL	159	59¢	$94	0xab8736…
10-04 16:11:38	Will there be 0 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?	Yes	SELL	253	64¢	$161	0xeb83fc…
10-04 16:11:38	Will there be 0 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	61¢	$3	0x338448…
10-04 08:06:35	Will there be 0 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?	Yes	SELL	237	61¢	$145	0x9b5c1e…
10-04 08:06:35	Will there be 0 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	61¢	$61	0x680426…
10-02 19:41:50	Will Argentina vs. Burkina Faso end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	105	20¢	$21	0xda2a4f…
10-02 15:00:06	Will there be 4-6 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?	No	SELL	2,401	99¢	$2,386	0x2c2867…
10-02 14:58:38	Will there be 4-6 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xd93c51…
10-02 14:58:38	Will there be 4-6 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?	No	SELL	22	99¢	$22	0xafcbf6…
10-02 14:58:38	Will there be 4-6 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?	No	SELL	89	99¢	$88	0x7b18f7…
10-02 14:58:38	Will there be 4-6 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?	No	SELL	30	99¢	$30	0x371a16…
10-02 13:58:41	Will there be 4-6 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?	No	SELL	18	99¢	$18	0x8b3c1d…
10-02 13:58:41	Will there be 4-6 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?	No	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0x1b45a7…
10-02 04:42:09	Will there be 4-6 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xe740fe…
10-01 22:08:27	Will there be 4-6 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?	No	SELL	61	99¢	$61	0xee0ea7…
10-01 22:08:27	Will there be 4-6 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?	No	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0x626762…
09-30 15:16:14	Tropical Storm Fay strengthens to a hurricane?	No	SELL	2,000	100¢	$1,998	0xd1782c…
09-29 19:03:23	trump renames ai by september 30	Yes	SELL	302	97¢	$292	0x9417d7…
09-29 15:18:15	trump renames ai by september 30	Yes	BUY	302	66¢	$200	0xc97523…
09-28 22:12:44	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C or below on September 29?	Yes	SELL	97	4¢	$4	0x99cf5f…
09-28 21:14:21	Will there be 4-6 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?	No	SELL	14	99¢	$14	0x5b60d9…
09-28 20:26:53	Will there be 4-6 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?	No	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0x864c71…
09-28 20:14:09	Will there be 4-6 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?	No	SELL	278	99¢	$276	0xd272da…
09-28 20:14:08	Will there be 4-6 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?	No	SELL	89	99¢	$89	0x9f2c7b…
09-28 20:14:08	Will there be 4-6 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?	No	SELL	245	99¢	$243	0x064254…
09-28 19:34:09	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C or below on September 29?	Yes	BUY	76	4¢	$3	0x4c33c0…
09-28 19:20:12	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C or below on September 29?	Yes	BUY	21	2¢	$0	0xf0d4b5…
09-25 21:46:38	Will there be no hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season?	Yes	BUY	407	31¢	$125	0xf704e3…
09-25 20:40:42	Will there be 0 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?	Yes	BUY	833	33¢	$272	0x877ac8…
09-25 20:38:30	Will the first Atlantic hurricane form between September 26 and September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	190	94¢	$178	0xd4c03a…
09-25 20:38:03	Will no Atlantic hurricane form in September 2026?	Yes	BUY	339	91¢	$308	0x8d6f4d…
09-24 15:43:42	Tropical Storm Fay strengthens to a hurricane?	No	BUY	1,670	95¢	$1,588	0xa9188f…
09-24 14:44:50	Tropical Storm Fay strengthens to a hurricane?	No	BUY	93	95¢	$89	0xd1252e…
09-24 04:14:11	Will there be 0 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?	Yes	BUY	81	34¢	$28	0x1ce170…
09-24 03:30:01	Tropical Storm Fay strengthens to a hurricane?	No	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0x1fd1e3…
09-24 03:29:59	Tropical Storm Fay strengthens to a hurricane?	No	BUY	180	95¢	$171	0xa5ab95…
09-24 03:29:59	Tropical Storm Fay strengthens to a hurricane?	No	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x537e41…
09-24 00:31:58	Tropical Storm Fay strengthens to a hurricane?	No	BUY	50	95¢	$48	0xa59de3…
09-23 09:34:38	Will the first Atlantic hurricane form between September 21 and September 25, 2026?	No	BUY	248	97¢	$240	0xd71f4f…
09-21 08:40:05	Will the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season be Fay?	No	BUY	221	95¢	$210	0x4be602…
09-21 07:18:38	Will the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season be Fay?	No	BUY	190	94¢	$180	0x276b51…
09-21 07:12:56	Will there be 0 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?	Yes	BUY	213	36¢	$77	0x57645e…
09-21 07:11:23	Will there be 0 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	34¢	$7	0xb6eb44…
09-21 07:06:24	Will there be 0 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?	Yes	BUY	102	33¢	$33	0x5d5ecb…
09-21 07:05:29	Will the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season be Fay?	No	BUY	170	88¢	$149	0x8aba1c…
09-21 07:03:24	Will the first Atlantic hurricane form between September 21 and September 25, 2026?	No	BUY	100	86¢	$86	0x027e46…
09-20 20:40:32	Will the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season be Fay?	No	SELL	500	70¢	$350	0x531452…
09-20 20:25:26	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	620	25¢	$155	0x67b0ac…
09-20 15:10:51	Will there be 0 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?	Yes	SELL	423	33¢	$139	0x95f1c0…
09-19 15:05:30	Will the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season be Fay?	No	BUY	500	87¢	$434	0xcdd01f…
09-16 10:53:51	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	12,500	1¢	$100	0xdb3bae…
09-15 16:24:10	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1,131	28¢	$317	0x0aa79d…
09-14 01:28:58	Will there be 0 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?	Yes	SELL	627	38¢	$236	0xc2cfe1…
09-08 14:23:34	Will there be 4-6 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?	No	BUY	2,166	90¢	$1,949	0xc899b5…
09-08 14:23:22	Will there be 0 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?	Yes	BUY	173	25¢	$44	0x42a175…
09-08 14:10:48	Will there be 0 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?	Yes	BUY	261	19¢	$50	0x2ca242…
09-08 14:10:25	Will a hurricane make landfall in Florida by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	99	59¢	$59	0x623d44…
09-05 22:49:28	Will there be 0 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?	Yes	BUY	743	28¢	$207	0x4fbfe7…
09-04 21:35:00	Will there be 4-6 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?	No	BUY	1,163	81¢	$942	0xee3097…
09-04 21:27:13	Will there be 0 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?	Yes	BUY	263	22¢	$58	0x4e2660…
09-01 06:55:15	Will there be 0 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	7¢	$0	0x0a0fcd…
08-21 19:33:36	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 99°F or below on August 21?	Yes	BUY	30	12¢	$4	0xd9a1c7…
08-21 19:33:21	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 99°F or below on August 21?	Yes	BUY	9	12¢	$1	0xd0a2aa…
08-21 18:52:25	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 99°F or below on August 21?	Yes	BUY	33	6¢	$2	0x2606bf…
08-21 18:45:22	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 99°F or below on August 21?	Yes	BUY	2	6¢	$0	0x1d2a8e…
08-21 18:44:15	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 99°F or below on August 21?	Yes	BUY	8	6¢	$0	0x85e20d…
08-21 18:18:36	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 99°F or below on August 21?	Yes	BUY	7	8¢	$1	0x40b4c3…
08-21 18:18:36	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 99°F or below on August 21?	Yes	BUY	18	8¢	$1	0x3e9406…
08-21 18:14:51	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 99°F or below on August 21?	Yes	BUY	107	6¢	$7	0xd4f4e5…
08-21 15:58:48	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on August 21?	Yes	SELL	205	4¢	$8	0x34bafd…
08-21 15:52:39	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C or higher on August 21?	Yes	SELL	37	2¢	$1	0x658df9…