Loving-Conclusion — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.35K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

79.6%

Resolved

Trades

9,280

lifetime

Volume

$2.29M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$247

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-02

last 07-09 15:54

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 8 days

Categories

Other

62% 73% $-1,825

Politics

33% 100% +$3

Crypto

3% 0% $-5

Sports

2% 100% +$480

Tech

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

34 active days in 12wk • peak 191 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	261	$117.5K	76,614	71,922	+4,692	open	—	03-31 19:59
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	98	$103.9K	49,409	58,492	-9,083	open	—	03-04 18:47
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	331	$85.3K	84,370	83,007	+1,362	open	—	01-31 00:38
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	103	$77.5K	42,261	50,078	-7,817	open	—	02-27 02:29
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	70	$77.1K	25,558	67,140	-41,581	open	—	07-09 15:54
spx opens up or down on march 2 2026	66	$61.7K	38,442	38,442	+0	open	—	03-02 14:25
us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	43	$53.7K	28,889	25,889	+3,000	open	—	02-20 23:41
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?	121	$45.4K	28,198	28,189	+9	open	—	04-12 02:58
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	126	$43.4K	53,516	44,486	+9,030	open	—	03-13 21:50
spx up or down on march 2 2026	137	$42.3K	40,306	40,898	-592	open	—	03-02 20:15
cbb stlou ga 2026 03 19	51	$40.7K	25,086	18,660	+6,426	open	—	03-20 03:47
will crude oil cl hit high 105 by end of march 881	39	$40.2K	21,773	24,773	-2,999	open	—	03-31 18:48
cbb nebr iowa 2026 03 26	2	$38.4K	30,000	30,000	+0	open	—	03-27 00:42
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	63	$37.9K	29,194	29,194	+0	open	—	04-03 15:21
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?	68	$37.5K	23,324	21,042	+2,282	open	—	04-17 13:06
will the government shutdown last 5 days or more	65	$37.3K	23,644	20,087	+3,557	open	—	02-03 19:03
spx up or down on march 9 2026	86	$30.2K	42,929	8,466	+34,463	open	—	03-09 19:27
spx up or down on february 17 2026	71	$27.0K	26,630	24,426	+2,205	open	—	02-17 23:17
spx up or down on january 21 2026	49	$26.7K	13,994	13,980	+14	open	—	01-21 20:14
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	20	$26.5K	16,912	29,964	-13,052	open	—	06-01 13:08
spx up or down on february 19 2026	44	$22.8K	15,704	9,641	+6,063	open	—	02-19 20:46
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	37	$22.5K	16,847	17,467	-620	open	—	04-17 13:04
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	62	$20.9K	32,000	32,000	+0	open	—	03-04 19:10
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	19	$20.3K	11,111	11,111	+0	open	—	05-01 09:24
US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026?	82	$19.5K	11,138	11,138	+0	open	—	04-10 18:15
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?	37	$19.2K	23,913	1,607	+22,307	open	—	04-27 20:59
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	13	$18.7K	11,131	11,131	+0	open	—	03-03 17:58
spx up or down on march 10 2026	237	$17.9K	28,710	24,450	+4,260	open	—	03-10 18:41
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	25	$16.8K	14,000	8,500	+5,500	open	—	02-28 23:49
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	43	$16.7K	18,170	10,977	+7,193	open	—	05-25 23:28

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-09 15:54:55	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	12,717	84¢	$10,683	0x59e267…
07-09 15:17:31	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	195	84¢	$164	0x64e1d6…
07-09 15:11:20	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	64	84¢	$54	0xf4eb66…
07-09 15:10:59	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	6	84¢	$5	0x7b18a4…
07-09 15:07:41	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	10,798	84¢	$9,071	0x5febf8…
07-09 14:55:47	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	5	84¢	$4	0x861015…
07-09 14:51:29	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	29	84¢	$25	0x50bd82…
07-09 14:50:47	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	5	84¢	$4	0xb16f14…
07-09 14:45:47	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	5	84¢	$4	0xab1cf6…
07-09 14:40:49	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	303	84¢	$254	0x628bbf…
07-09 14:40:47	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	5	84¢	$4	0x0abc31…
07-09 14:40:08	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	18	84¢	$15	0x9e1fa0…
07-09 14:39:13	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	6	84¢	$5	0xc08250…
07-09 14:39:13	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	3	84¢	$3	0x80472b…
07-09 14:39:07	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	3	84¢	$3	0x99b725…
07-09 14:39:04	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	6	84¢	$5	0x9edc34…
07-09 14:39:04	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	3	84¢	$3	0x50a729…
07-09 14:39:01	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	6	84¢	$5	0x589611…
07-09 14:38:07	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	10,000	84¢	$8,400	0x02eb5a…
07-09 14:37:38	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	2,037	84¢	$1,711	0xf37ac7…
07-07 01:27:43	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	2,052	64¢	$1,313	0x62e194…
07-07 01:26:50	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	16	64¢	$10	0x8fa6bb…
07-07 01:26:43	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	1,245	64¢	$797	0x5d3363…
07-07 01:26:41	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	287	64¢	$184	0x8eaf0e…
07-07 01:12:32	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	839	62¢	$520	0x40bd37…
07-07 01:12:25	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	4	62¢	$2	0x9dddbd…
07-07 01:11:20	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0xd2e53c…
07-07 01:11:20	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	26	62¢	$16	0xad82f8…
07-07 01:11:19	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	126	62¢	$78	0xb7d747…
07-07 00:47:56	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	2,600	63¢	$1,638	0x88d8f9…
07-06 20:06:13	fifwc prt esp 2026 07 06 btts second half	Yes	BUY	848	38¢	$322	0x7105f3…
07-06 20:05:37	fifwc prt esp 2026 07 06 btts second half	Yes	BUY	960	38¢	$365	0x2f8091…
07-06 19:59:10	fifwc prt esp 2026 07 06 btts second half	Yes	BUY	140	38¢	$53	0x28aff5…
07-06 19:57:49	fifwc prt esp 2026 07 06 btts second half	Yes	BUY	16	38¢	$6	0xa8dd99…
07-06 19:57:16	fifwc prt esp 2026 07 06 btts second half	Yes	BUY	16	38¢	$6	0xd60bf0…
07-06 19:56:02	fifwc prt esp 2026 07 06 btts second half	Yes	BUY	15	38¢	$6	0x038408…
07-06 19:48:14	fifwc prt esp 2026 07 06 btts second half	Yes	BUY	4	38¢	$2	0x802d5e…
07-06 18:57:17	fifwc prt esp 2026 07 06 btts second half	Yes	BUY	260	33¢	$86	0x8cb0ae…
07-06 18:57:16	fifwc prt esp 2026 07 06 btts second half	Yes	BUY	158	33¢	$52	0xe06ef0…
07-02 04:50:19	tyler robinson convicted of homicide	Yes	SELL	2	55¢	$1	0x883ea0…
07-02 03:52:16	tyler robinson convicted of homicide	Yes	SELL	5	55¢	$3	0x14867d…
07-02 02:24:58	tyler robinson convicted of homicide	Yes	SELL	9	55¢	$5	0xcb3098…
07-02 02:12:04	tyler robinson convicted of homicide	Yes	SELL	1,576	55¢	$867	0x9b20d0…
07-01 09:53:16	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	Yes	SELL	827	46¢	$380	0x740e3b…
07-01 09:28:34	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	Yes	SELL	148	46¢	$68	0x61c5ca…
07-01 09:10:19	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	Yes	SELL	2	46¢	$1	0x672566…
07-01 09:07:20	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	Yes	SELL	1	46¢	$1	0x3e1135…
07-01 09:05:56	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	Yes	SELL	0	46¢	$0	0x5373d3…
07-01 08:47:32	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	Yes	SELL	5	46¢	$2	0xfadd54…
07-01 07:34:43	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	Yes	SELL	2	46¢	$1	0x385aa0…
07-01 04:56:59	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	Yes	SELL	3	46¢	$1	0x44810f…
07-01 03:33:13	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	Yes	SELL	2	46¢	$1	0x45a679…
06-30 23:25:19	will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	No	BUY	191	60¢	$115	0xdfcf42…
06-30 23:23:17	will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	No	BUY	3,200	65¢	$2,080	0x17e40b…
06-30 23:21:22	will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	No	BUY	1,200	70¢	$840	0xb5be0f…
06-30 23:12:11	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	Yes	SELL	20	46¢	$9	0xa535bc…
06-30 23:06:17	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	Yes	SELL	50	46¢	$23	0x8b0bae…
06-30 22:12:23	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	BUY	146	15¢	$22	0xda336b…
06-30 21:59:49	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	BUY	150	15¢	$23	0xe4ebfa…
06-30 21:58:53	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	BUY	201	15¢	$31	0x4b66f3…
06-30 21:29:16	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	BUY	3	15¢	$0	0x5970c2…
06-30 21:27:58	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	BUY	50	15¢	$8	0xf63bff…
06-30 20:29:16	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	BUY	950	15¢	$145	0x8bb6d0…
06-30 20:08:53	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	Yes	SELL	20	46¢	$9	0xcc0e33…
06-30 17:17:16	fifwc civ nor 2026 06 30 btts	Yes	BUY	3,200	49¢	$1,568	0xcb0836…
06-30 17:00:23	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	BUY	282	15¢	$42	0x379fe0…
06-30 16:59:41	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	BUY	6	15¢	$1	0x9921bc…
06-30 16:59:32	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	BUY	12	15¢	$2	0xa2dd1d…
06-30 16:39:58	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	Yes	SELL	780	46¢	$359	0xba46ae…
06-30 16:02:44	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	Yes	SELL	17	46¢	$8	0xc47944…
06-29 17:33:50	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	Yes	BUY	282	67¢	$189	0xc905cd…
06-29 10:40:17	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	200	45¢	$90	0x456dab…
06-29 10:03:47	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x7eca33…
06-29 09:32:35	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	18	45¢	$8	0x1c5e22…
06-29 09:32:10	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	63	45¢	$28	0xffa8b0…
06-29 09:31:58	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0xcc01a8…
06-29 09:31:38	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	4	45¢	$2	0x2c0694…
06-29 09:31:37	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	1,599	45¢	$720	0xeeeff3…
06-29 09:31:37	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	16	45¢	$7	0x19c4b1…
06-29 08:26:35	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0xa14d63…
06-29 07:47:52	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x44aef9…
06-29 06:17:17	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	7	45¢	$3	0x493451…
06-29 05:18:16	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	110	45¢	$50	0x56b27d…
06-29 05:18:07	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0x04f4e7…
06-29 02:14:43	spy up or down on june 29 2026	Down	SELL	200	36¢	$72	0x74f351…
06-29 02:14:43	spy up or down on june 29 2026	Down	SELL	200	36¢	$72	0x6f8970…
06-29 02:14:43	spy up or down on june 29 2026	Down	SELL	190	36¢	$69	0x3fb385…
06-29 02:14:43	spy up or down on june 29 2026	Down	SELL	6	36¢	$2	0x34287a…
06-29 02:13:40	spy up or down on june 29 2026	Down	SELL	4	36¢	$1	0x145d7f…
06-29 02:13:38	spy up or down on june 29 2026	Down	SELL	200	35¢	$70	0xd5a74a…
06-29 02:13:38	spy up or down on june 29 2026	Down	SELL	6	35¢	$2	0x6a8f0f…
06-29 02:13:38	spy up or down on june 29 2026	Down	SELL	135	35¢	$47	0x52eba5…
06-29 02:13:17	spy up or down on june 29 2026	Down	SELL	53	35¢	$19	0x500dc8…
06-29 02:13:17	spy up or down on june 29 2026	Down	SELL	6	35¢	$2	0x27acd2…
06-29 01:33:29	spy up or down on june 29 2026	Down	SELL	10	35¢	$4	0xd140eb…
06-29 01:29:53	spy up or down on june 29 2026	Down	SELL	38	35¢	$13	0x057e1d…
06-29 01:08:59	spy up or down on june 29 2026	Down	SELL	5	35¢	$2	0x6876da…
06-29 01:06:29	spy up or down on june 29 2026	Down	BUY	200	34¢	$68	0x17afe8…
06-29 01:06:28	spy up or down on june 29 2026	Down	BUY	200	34¢	$68	0xb80f1f…
06-29 01:00:13	spy up or down on june 29 2026	Down	BUY	200	34¢	$68	0xa408d3…