Starchy-Drudgery — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$83

Unrealized P&L

-$269

Hit rate

83.2%

Resolved

116

Trades

785

lifetime

Volume

$75.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$96

Open exposure

$1.71K

2 positions

First seen

2026-03-05

last 09-21 18:17

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 52 days

Categories

Politics

42% 66% -$1,568

Other

29% 71% +$909

Tech

28% 86% +$625

Sports

0% 50% +$0

Crypto

0% 67% -$49

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

8 active days in 12wk • peak 9 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No		-1,730	-$1,436	98¢	$-1699	-$264	05-05 08:17
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes		-111	-$10	14¢	$-15	-$5	05-02 07:44

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
atp mensik zverev 2026 06 05	4	$5.9K	3,000	3,000	+0	Alexander Zverev	+$117	06-05 15:40
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	24	$4.6K	2,833	3,231	-398	No	+$92	05-28 14:19
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	2	$3.4K	2,115	2,115	+0	Yes	-$616	04-21 08:48
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	8	$3.0K	1,572	1,672	-100	No	+$111	04-26 09:17
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	45	$2.9K	5,031	5,031	+0	No	+$689	05-23 09:01
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	15	$2.5K	1,432	1,384	+48	No	+$155	05-09 20:56
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	17	$2.0K	1,228	1,228	+0	No	+$312	05-26 18:43
Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of July 2026?	11	$1.8K	964	964	+0	Yes	+$125	07-31 16:13
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026?	93	$1.7K	951	951	+0	Yes	+$150	07-31 16:01
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	14	$1.6K	965	865	+100	No	+$95	05-08 14:31
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?	9	$1.5K	806	806	+0	Yes	+$100	06-30 16:13
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	5	$1.4K	0	1,730	-1,730	open	—	05-05 08:17
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	3	$1.3K	2,459	2,459	+0	No	+$280	05-23 08:53
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	7	$1.3K	4,636	2,095	+2,541	Yes	-$419	06-16 12:46
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?	29	$1.3K	729	729	+0	Yes	+$176	06-30 16:02
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of August 2026?	3	$1.3K	665	665	+0	Yes	+$66	08-31 18:20
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	4	$1.2K	713	713	+0	No	+$202	04-25 14:14
Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of August 2026?	3	$1.2K	646	646	+0	Yes	+$126	08-31 18:24
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	17	$1.2K	617	617	+0	No	+$71	06-01 04:02
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	5	$1.1K	900	900	+0	No	+$92	06-15 18:17
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	3	$1.1K	600	600	+0	No	+$69	07-30 15:02
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of July 2026?	9	$1.1K	589	589	+0	Yes	+$101	07-31 14:24
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	3	$1.1K	600	600	+0	No	+$116	06-08 15:55
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?	10	$1.0K	578	578	+0	Yes	+$114	07-31 16:16
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	21	$1.0K	1,008	1,008	+0	No	-$113	06-14 22:12
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	4	$950	500	500	+0	No	+$44	08-20 11:19
trump orders federal review of ai model releases by july 31	18	$949	889	313	+576	No	+$253	08-01 10:52
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of August 2026?	21	$945	508	508	+0	Yes	+$70	08-31 20:39
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	2	$930	500	500	+0	No	+$60	05-21 02:51
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	6	$921	500	500	+0	No	+$52	05-26 18:40

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-21 18:17:28	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	SELL	400	99¢	$394	0x0c5912…
09-10 21:04:10	Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	88	70¢	$62	0x2b995c…
09-05 06:43:28	Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	68¢	$34	0xc83b05…
09-04 16:06:49	Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	150	74¢	$111	0x678a0f…
09-04 16:03:46	Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	73¢	$36	0xea367b…
09-04 16:00:58	Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,502	0¢	$10	0x6746c9…
09-04 15:58:34	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	87¢	$174	0x48b855…
09-04 15:53:21	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	86¢	$172	0x4ff07c…
08-31 20:44:55	Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of August 2026?	Yes	SELL	35	100¢	$35	0x90aabb…
08-31 20:39:43	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xee090f…
08-31 19:01:34	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	SELL	507	100¢	$506	0xe80da5…
08-31 18:24:42	Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of August 2026?	Yes	SELL	646	100¢	$646	0x25bec5…
08-31 18:21:30	Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	SELL	400	99¢	$398	0x72d0c1…
08-31 18:20:51	Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	SELL	665	100¢	$664	0x462244…
08-31 18:17:46	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	SELL	337	100¢	$337	0x147777…
08-31 18:17:06	Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of August 2026?	Yes	SELL	27	100¢	$27	0x995368…
08-31 18:15:37	Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of August 2026?	Yes	SELL	247	100¢	$247	0x38f7c6…
08-25 11:54:33	UFC Fight Night: Dan Hooker vs. Salahdine Parnasse (Lightweight, Main Card)	Salahdine Parnasse	BUY	57	81¢	$46	0xe08336…
08-24 18:06:46	UFC Fight Night: Dan Hooker vs. Salahdine Parnasse (Lightweight, Main Card)	Salahdine Parnasse	BUY	74	81¢	$60	0xa33904…
08-24 15:49:18	UFC Fight Night: Dan Hooker vs. Salahdine Parnasse (Lightweight, Main Card)	Salahdine Parnasse	BUY	26	80¢	$21	0x583fd5…
08-20 11:19:25	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	500	100¢	$497	0x785d9d…
08-13 20:58:22	Will Ciryl Gane be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	26	42¢	$11	0x6d757c…
08-10 19:43:25	Will Ciryl Gane be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	149	39¢	$58	0x31c2a4…
08-06 09:13:59	Will Ciryl Gane be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	75	42¢	$32	0xf58afe…
08-03 15:17:48	Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0x8a99f8…
08-03 15:16:57	Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	85¢	$42	0x83de47…
08-03 15:14:06	Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	150	85¢	$128	0x507903…
08-03 15:11:03	Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	85¢	$170	0x3e574a…
08-02 06:44:32	Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	450	81¢	$365	0xf72c57…
08-02 06:43:26	Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	196	79¢	$155	0xeb1ceb…
08-02 06:36:32	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	172	89¢	$153	0x40f1b3…
08-02 06:34:03	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	88¢	$9	0xdd4e9a…
08-02 06:33:20	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	88¢	$9	0xf7dc8f…
08-02 06:33:05	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	88¢	$9	0xfcfaa1…
08-02 06:32:12	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	88¢	$9	0xe3ae22…
08-02 06:31:32	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	88¢	$9	0xa623b2…
08-02 06:31:20	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	88¢	$9	0xd1361b…
08-02 06:31:11	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	88¢	$9	0x0e34a8…
08-02 06:31:03	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	88¢	$35	0xf06a48…
08-02 06:30:48	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	69	88¢	$61	0x8669b2…
08-02 06:30:11	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	87¢	$35	0xb0fbe2…
08-02 06:29:48	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	87¢	$22	0x79d7a6…
08-02 06:29:35	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	46	87¢	$40	0xf19931…
08-02 06:29:15	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	86¢	$9	0xbc1453…
08-02 06:29:02	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	86¢	$9	0x29e217…
08-02 06:28:53	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	86¢	$9	0x257f7b…
08-02 06:28:48	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	85¢	$13	0x2aab79…
08-02 06:28:00	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	116	84¢	$97	0xfcf064…
08-02 06:28:00	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	37	84¢	$31	0x4ce7d5…
08-02 06:28:00	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	83¢	$17	0x3785f8…
08-01 17:46:12	Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	300	89¢	$267	0xa45c82…
08-01 10:52:53	trump orders federal review of ai model releases by july 31	No	SELL	313	100¢	$313	0x81afb3…
08-01 09:48:51	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	213	94¢	$200	0x0d5171…
08-01 09:46:47	Will Moonshot be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026?	Yes	SELL	135	72¢	$97	0x071737…
08-01 09:46:33	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	145	78¢	$112	0xb6f424…
07-31 16:16:18	Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	SELL	578	100¢	$577	0xfaf626…
07-31 16:13:39	Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	SELL	325	100¢	$324	0x6a56ab…
07-31 16:13:14	Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	SELL	864	100¢	$862	0x6f42c7…
07-31 16:12:02	Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	SELL	115	100¢	$115	0x58a3e9…
07-31 16:09:02	Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	SELL	126	100¢	$126	0x6d612d…
07-31 16:01:51	Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x6b93fc…
07-31 16:01:50	Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xff79a6…
07-31 16:01:50	Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	100¢	$50	0xfe6072…
07-31 16:01:50	Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xf740e8…
07-31 16:01:50	Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	100¢	$50	0xf5e0a1…
07-31 16:01:50	Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xf575e1…
07-31 16:01:50	Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xe8498f…
07-31 16:01:50	Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xe38cc9…
07-31 16:01:50	Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	100¢	$50	0xdeb558…
07-31 16:01:50	Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xdab958…
07-31 16:01:50	Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xda0fe0…
07-31 16:01:50	Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xd2234a…
07-31 16:01:50	Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	100¢	$50	0xccaa74…
07-31 16:01:50	Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	100¢	$50	0xc0deea…
07-31 16:01:50	Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xbd38a5…
07-31 16:01:50	Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xbbf79b…
07-31 16:01:50	Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xb4516e…
07-31 16:01:50	Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xb3ef36…
07-31 16:01:50	Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xae29a7…
07-31 16:01:50	Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xa96a96…
07-31 16:01:50	Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xa81789…
07-31 16:01:50	Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x9f6cd7…
07-31 16:01:50	Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x9ec8e9…
07-31 16:01:50	Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x988fe5…
07-31 16:01:50	Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x906a80…
07-31 16:01:50	Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x904e87…
07-31 16:01:50	Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x8a742d…
07-31 16:01:50	Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x88f0d3…
07-31 16:01:50	Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x84c584…
07-31 16:01:50	Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x849f56…
07-31 16:01:50	Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x8132dc…
07-31 16:01:50	Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x7b2c63…
07-31 16:01:50	Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x7a9ed3…
07-31 16:01:50	Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	100¢	$50	0x71cddf…
07-31 16:01:50	Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x6ebf78…
07-31 16:01:50	Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x6c92a5…
07-31 16:01:50	Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x671dd5…
07-31 16:01:50	Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x67199a…
07-31 16:01:50	Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x65537e…
07-31 16:01:50	Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x5864c4…