Dependent-Supernatural — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$11

Unrealized P&L

+$2

Hit rate

97.5%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$1.10K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$38

Open exposure

$29

1 position

First seen

2026-02-26

last 10-06 16:10

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 21 days

Categories

Other

37% 91% -$22

Sports

31% 100% +$6

Crypto

23% 100% +$3

Tech

7% 100% +$1

Politics

3% 100% +$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (26) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
New pandemic in 2026?	No		+30	$27	98¢	$29	+$2	07-29 20:02

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's US Open?	1	$120	121	+121	No	+$1	07-29 20:00
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$115	118	+118	No	+$3	05-26 13:36
Will Atletico Madrid finish in the top 4 of the La Liga 2025–26 standings?	1	$105	108	+108	Yes	+$2	03-27 14:03
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in October?	1	$105	106	+106	No	+$1	10-06 16:05
Will February be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026?	1	$30	30	+30	No	+$0	02-26 09:47
will ethereum dip to 1500 february 23 march 1	1	$29	29	+29	No	+$0	02-26 09:47
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026?	1	$29	29	+29	No	+$1	05-26 13:47
will 90 to 119 tornadoes occur in the united states in february 2026	1	$28	29	+29	No	+$0	02-26 09:47
will bitcoin reach 80k in march 2026	1	$28	28	+28	No	+$0	03-27 14:03
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in October?	1	$28	29	+29	No	+$1	10-06 16:05
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	1	$28	28	+28	Yes	+$0	05-26 13:46
will ethereum dip to 1600 july 27 august 2 2026	1	$28	28	+28	No	+$0	07-29 20:01
New pandemic in 2026?	1	$27	30	+30	open	—	07-29 20:02
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?	1	$27	27	+27	No	+$0	05-26 13:38
Will Arsenal finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings?	1	$27	27	+27	Yes	+$0	02-26 09:46
will bitcoin dip to 55k in july 2026 381	1	$27	27	+27	No	+$0	07-29 20:01
will ethereum reach 2300 march 23 29	1	$26	27	+27	No	+$0	03-27 14:04
netanyahu out by march 31 854	1	$26	27	+27	No	+$0	03-27 14:03
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	1	$26	27	+27	No	+$0	03-27 14:05
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in May?	1	$26	26	+26	No	+$0	05-26 13:37
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	1	$26	30	+30	No	-$26	07-29 20:00
will the fed decrease interest rates by 50 bps after the march 2026 meeting	1	$25	25	+25	No	+$0	02-26 09:46
will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 437	1	$25	25	+25	Yes	+$0	03-27 14:04
will russia capture kostyantynivka by july 31	1	$25	26	+26	No	+$2	07-29 20:02
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	10-06 16:10
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	1	$24	25	+25	open	—	10-06 16:06
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $620b and $630b on May 31?	1	$23	23	+23	No	+$0	05-26 13:46
New Coronavirus Pandemic in 2026?	1	$21	22	+22	open	—	05-26 13:47
will russia capture lyman by february 28 2026	1	$20	20	+20	No	+$0	02-26 09:45

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-06 16:10:09	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No	BUY	24	99¢	$24	0xaa41aa…
10-06 16:06:35	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	No	BUY	25	97¢	$24	0xeeeb25…
10-06 16:05:48	Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in October?	No	BUY	29	97¢	$28	0x85f99d…
10-06 16:05:06	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in October?	No	BUY	106	99¢	$105	0x86e9f0…
07-29 20:02:39	New pandemic in 2026?	No	BUY	30	92¢	$27	0xf3f4ed…
07-29 20:02:03	will russia capture kostyantynivka by july 31	No	BUY	26	94¢	$25	0x180176…
07-29 20:01:30	will ethereum dip to 1600 july 27 august 2 2026	No	BUY	28	98¢	$28	0x7defdf…
07-29 20:01:03	will bitcoin dip to 55k in july 2026 381	No	BUY	27	99¢	$27	0x3a8a3d…
07-29 20:00:29	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	30	88¢	$26	0xd25244…
07-29 20:00:05	Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's US Open?	No	BUY	121	99¢	$120	0xedca55…
05-26 13:47:51	New Coronavirus Pandemic in 2026?	No	BUY	22	95¢	$21	0xb2592c…
05-26 13:47:21	Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	29	98¢	$29	0xc5fa29…
05-26 13:46:48	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	28	99¢	$28	0x874310…
05-26 13:46:34	Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $620b and $630b on May 31?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0xa05cdb…
05-26 13:38:24	Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	27	99¢	$27	0x785818…
05-26 13:37:30	Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in May?	No	BUY	26	99¢	$26	0xfa3b27…
05-26 13:36:46	Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	118	98¢	$115	0xe1dd25…
03-27 14:05:21	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	BUY	27	99¢	$26	0x74fb0d…
03-27 14:04:25	will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 437	Yes	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0xae77fa…
03-27 14:04:13	will ethereum reach 2300 march 23 29	No	BUY	27	99¢	$26	0xb4351c…
03-27 14:03:43	will bitcoin reach 80k in march 2026	No	BUY	28	99¢	$28	0x5c9311…
03-27 14:03:21	netanyahu out by march 31 854	No	BUY	27	99¢	$26	0x9ef99b…
03-27 14:03:01	Will Atletico Madrid finish in the top 4 of the La Liga 2025–26 standings?	Yes	BUY	108	98¢	$105	0xd5f8c5…
02-26 09:47:58	Will February be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026?	No	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0x843db6…
02-26 09:47:42	will ethereum dip to 1500 february 23 march 1	No	BUY	29	99¢	$29	0xb58b6b…
02-26 09:47:24	will 90 to 119 tornadoes occur in the united states in february 2026	No	BUY	29	99¢	$28	0xe7d9b8…
02-26 09:46:52	Will Arsenal finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings?	Yes	BUY	27	99¢	$27	0xe8d828…
02-26 09:46:04	will the fed decrease interest rates by 50 bps after the march 2026 meeting	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x71a29b…
02-26 09:45:50	will russia capture lyman by february 28 2026	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x7d7f55…