Noted-Mechanic — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$262

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

71.4%

Resolved

1,455

Trades

2,474

lifetime

Volume

$16.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-02-26

last 09-18 04:41

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 110 days

Categories

Other

97% 39% -$226

Crypto

1% 44% +$7

Sports

1% 40% -$22

Politics

0% 0% -$22

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

2 active days in 12wk • peak 1 trade/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026?	No		-4	-$2	26¢	$-1	+$1	05-14 07:36

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
epl mun cry 2026 03 01 mun	2	$941	574	574	+0	Yes	+$206	03-01 16:02
lowest temperature in tokyo on april 15 2026 16c	3	$502	275	272	+2	No	+$44	04-14 19:54
highest temperature in tokyo on april 13 2026 22c	2	$468	272	269	+4	No	+$72	04-13 03:12
highest temperature in tokyo on april 14 2026 22c	2	$371	236	231	+5	No	+$94	04-14 07:52
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	2	$251	152	152	+0	Yes	+$51	06-21 05:50
highest temperature in tokyo on april 15 2026 21c	3	$214	265	18	+246	No	-$206	04-15 05:24
highest temperature in tokyo on april 11 2026 24c	2	$178	99	98	+1	No	+$19	04-11 05:14
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 12°C on April 30?	4	$140	136	136	+0	Yes	+$16	04-30 14:51
highest temperature in tokyo on april 16 2026 21c	2	$135	149	147	+1	Yes	-$106	04-16 03:31
highest temperature in tokyo on april 6 2026 22c	2	$130	90	87	+2	Yes	+$46	04-06 15:40
ucl lev ars 2026 03 11 ars	2	$110	204	0	+204	No	-$110	03-11 18:59
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on May 6?	4	$109	68	68	+0	No	+$19	05-06 05:23
highest temperature in tokyo on april 12 2026 21c	3	$100	61	60	+1	No	+$21	04-12 05:06
highest temperature in tokyo on april 18 2026 21c	5	$98	99	96	+2	Yes	-$2	04-18 06:46
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on May 9?	5	$96	71	71	+0	Yes	+$43	05-09 09:06
highest temperature in tokyo on april 6 2026 23corhigher	4	$93	205	198	+7	No	-$47	04-06 07:51
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on May 3?	2	$92	52	52	+0	No	+$12	05-03 12:54
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on May 3?	4	$90	194	194	+0	Yes	-$64	05-02 21:08
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C or higher on May 1?	7	$89	74	74	+0	Yes	+$58	05-01 07:30
bun koe moe 2026 03 21 total 2pt5	2	$89	59	59	+0	Over	+$29	03-21 14:53
will michael b jordan win best actor at the 98th academy awards	2	$88	53	53	+0	Yes	+$18	03-16 03:06
epl mun lee 2026 04 13 mun	1	$88	138	0	+138	No	-$88	04-13 11:59
epl mac ars 2026 04 19 mac	2	$87	58	57	+1	Yes	+$28	04-19 17:35
efa new mnc 2026 03 07 mnc	2	$86	60	60	+0	Yes	+$34	03-08 02:12
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 21°C on May 5?	3	$86	100	100	+0	Yes	+$84	05-05 13:38
highest temperature in lucknow on april 7 2026 33corbelow	3	$85	50	50	+1	No	+$14	04-07 10:03
fif eng jpn 2026 03 31 spread home 1pt5	2	$84	52	52	+0	Japan	+$18	03-31 21:59
epl mun ast 2026 03 15 mun	2	$82	52	52	+0	Yes	+$22	03-15 16:02
ucl tot atm1 2026 03 18 btts	2	$78	48	48	+0	Yes	+$18	03-18 22:11
epl new sun 2026 03 22 spread home 1pt5	2	$78	48	48	+0	Sunderland AFC	+$18	03-22 14:08

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-18 04:41:33	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on September 18?	Yes	BUY	9	74¢	$7	0x00c26c…
08-11 04:00:46	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on August 11?	Yes	BUY	23	22¢	$5	0x2c003b…
07-14 14:36:58	fifwc fra esp 2026 07 14 btts	Yes	BUY	83	60¢	$50	0x2d9a21…
07-14 12:37:46	Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 14?	Yes	BUY	27	45¢	$12	0xf4ad3b…
07-14 12:37:37	Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 14?	Yes	BUY	63	21¢	$13	0x5c649f…
07-14 12:37:22	Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 14?	Yes	BUY	65	9¢	$6	0xc1d39f…
07-13 10:48:41	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on July 13?	Yes	BUY	55	5¢	$3	0xa715b9…
07-13 10:48:34	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on July 13?	No	BUY	15	67¢	$10	0xe22772…
07-13 10:48:22	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on July 13?	Yes	BUY	54	22¢	$12	0xaaf93b…
07-13 03:19:19	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on July 13?	No	BUY	10	58¢	$6	0xe4dd63…
07-13 03:19:10	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on July 13?	Yes	BUY	29	7¢	$2	0x86081c…
07-12 22:50:19	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 13?	Yes	BUY	11	38¢	$4	0x4c0dce…
07-12 17:53:32	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on July 12?	No	SELL	23	93¢	$22	0x638348…
07-12 17:53:29	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on July 12?	Yes	SELL	37	93¢	$35	0x8ed6ab…
07-12 14:31:47	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on July 12?	Yes	BUY	57	17¢	$10	0x28cf25…
07-12 14:31:25	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on July 12?	Yes	BUY	7	43¢	$3	0x36c299…
07-12 10:36:16	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on July 12?	No	BUY	23	65¢	$15	0xa95e2f…
07-12 10:34:20	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on July 12?	Yes	BUY	37	27¢	$10	0x5b9c76…
07-12 10:34:14	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on July 12?	Yes	BUY	41	12¢	$5	0x7e9890…
07-11 03:27:10	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on July 11?	Yes	BUY	28	29¢	$8	0x6fe3ca…
07-11 03:26:55	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on July 11?	Yes	BUY	63	8¢	$5	0xf7db6c…
07-10 14:56:14	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on July 10?	Yes	BUY	43	23¢	$10	0x8c8a19…
07-10 14:56:07	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on July 10?	Yes	BUY	28	43¢	$12	0xa20e8f…
07-08 15:27:02	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on July 9?	Yes	BUY	28	36¢	$10	0xc64e9f…
07-08 15:21:49	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on July 9?	Yes	BUY	53	30¢	$16	0xf5b7b8…
07-08 15:21:32	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C or higher on July 9?	Yes	BUY	57	35¢	$20	0x83485d…
07-08 15:06:43	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 35°C on July 8?	Yes	BUY	21	19¢	$4	0xe8717f…
07-08 15:06:19	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on July 8?	Yes	BUY	22	45¢	$10	0xe18999…
07-08 02:34:02	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on July 7?	Yes	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0xdc4972…
07-07 15:16:44	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on July 7?	Yes	BUY	13	23¢	$3	0x5e4321…
07-07 15:06:34	fifwc arg egy 2026 07 07 team to advance	Egypt	BUY	87	15¢	$13	0x249ecf…
07-07 13:02:19	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on July 7?	Yes	BUY	10	29¢	$3	0x61795e…
07-06 14:54:07	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on July 6?	No	BUY	13	63¢	$8	0xfe99f6…
07-06 14:53:56	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on July 6?	Yes	BUY	24	33¢	$8	0x2d5e9b…
07-06 14:53:22	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on July 6?	Yes	BUY	59	20¢	$12	0xb59e59…
07-05 20:55:20	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on July 5?	Yes	SELL	32	100¢	$32	0x2909b7…
07-05 17:53:28	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on July 5?	Yes	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0x9ad77b…
07-05 15:25:07	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on July 5?	Yes	BUY	11	54¢	$6	0x44abd6…
07-05 13:36:17	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on July 5?	Yes	BUY	24	33¢	$8	0x9a918a…
07-05 13:36:07	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on July 5?	Yes	BUY	32	34¢	$11	0x5d2028…
07-05 13:34:26	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 8°C on July 5?	Yes	BUY	9	44¢	$4	0x119ebe…
07-04 18:20:20	fifwc can mar 2026 07 04 corners total 11pt5	Over	BUY	73	41¢	$30	0x6c95fe…
07-02 06:00:47	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on July 2?	Yes	SELL	66	92¢	$60	0x28e3aa…
07-02 00:07:20	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on July 2?	Yes	BUY	66	2¢	$1	0x3f35d6…
07-02 00:07:10	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on July 2?	Yes	BUY	60	5¢	$3	0x6d6bb9…
07-02 00:07:02	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on July 2?	Yes	BUY	39	18¢	$7	0x9a206d…
06-30 17:55:08	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C or higher on July 1?	Yes	BUY	79	63¢	$50	0x66ae5b…
06-30 17:50:08	fifwc civ nor 2026 06 30 corners total 8pt5	Over	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x9235ad…
06-30 17:03:38	fifwc civ nor 2026 06 30 corners total 8pt5	Over	BUY	20	60¢	$12	0x42f29d…
06-29 18:00:32	Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	58	3¢	$2	0xe4cdb6…
06-27 15:59:26	fifwc pan eng 2026 06 27 spread away 2pt5	England	BUY	44	45¢	$20	0x9c4295…
06-23 19:40:01	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 24?	Yes	BUY	12	24¢	$3	0x1dae9f…
06-23 19:39:37	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 24?	Yes	BUY	26	19¢	$5	0xe41d96…
06-23 19:39:28	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C or below on June 24?	Yes	BUY	40	7¢	$3	0x2292c9…
06-23 02:29:07	fifwc jor alg 2026 06 22 first half total 0pt5	Over	BUY	44	68¢	$30	0xaf16ef…
06-22 16:18:29	Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	No	BUY	106	33¢	$35	0xf8ba79…
06-21 14:58:40	fifwc esp ksa 2026 06 21 corners total 8pt5	Over	BUY	44	68¢	$30	0x5a1f38…
06-21 12:39:31	fifwc esp ksa 2026 06 21 spread home 3pt5	Saudi Arabia	BUY	74	68¢	$50	0xf60021…
06-21 05:50:35	Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	SELL	152	100¢	$151	0xf6e446…
06-20 19:38:40	Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	BUY	152	66¢	$100	0xfa05ef…
06-20 19:38:22	fifwc ger civ 2026 06 20 goals kai havertz gte1	Yes	BUY	12	42¢	$5	0xb21124…
06-20 17:51:01	Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	47	99¢	$46	0xe47b2f…
06-20 16:05:02	fifwc nld swe 2026 06 20 spread home 1pt5	Sweden	BUY	30	67¢	$20	0x606cd7…
06-20 16:04:35	fifwc nld swe 2026 06 20 goals alexander isak gte1	Yes	BUY	10	30¢	$3	0x4c0096…
06-20 16:04:05	Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	No	BUY	47	43¢	$20	0x176811…
06-20 06:26:41	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 20?	No	BUY	30	10¢	$3	0xc5ae4b…
06-20 06:07:40	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 20?	Yes	BUY	20	17¢	$3	0xe4611f…
06-20 06:05:50	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 20?	Yes	BUY	5	17¢	$1	0x313bb0…
06-20 04:01:04	fifwc tur par 2026 06 19 first half total 0pt5	Over	SELL	22	100¢	$22	0x1e14d5…
06-20 01:25:29	Türkiye leading at halftime?	Yes	SELL	29	34¢	$10	0x9e812c…
06-19 15:36:44	fifwc sco mar 2026 06 19 corners total 8pt5	Under	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x04c9a2…
06-19 15:31:10	Türkiye leading at halftime?	Yes	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0x322f38…
06-19 15:31:07	Türkiye leading at halftime?	Yes	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0xb5b69c…
06-19 15:30:52	fifwc tur par 2026 06 19 first half total 0pt5	Over	BUY	22	68¢	$15	0x913191…
06-19 15:29:59	fifwc sco mar 2026 06 19 btts	Yes	BUY	22	45¢	$10	0x76f4ec…
06-19 15:25:32	fifwc usa aus 2026 06 19 btts	Yes	BUY	19	53¢	$10	0xf3339d…
06-18 15:52:31	fifwc cze rsa 2026 06 18 corners total 8pt5	Over	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0xf9b107…
06-18 15:52:08	fifwc cze rsa 2026 06 18 first half total 0pt5	Over	BUY	8	66¢	$5	0x1cc32a…
06-18 06:07:14	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 19?	Yes	BUY	27	11¢	$3	0x38039d…
06-18 04:58:47	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 18?	Yes	BUY	38	21¢	$8	0x2eb706…
06-16 06:43:22	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 16?	Yes	BUY	53	9¢	$5	0xbcfb66…
06-15 19:35:01	Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners	Over	BUY	17	65¢	$11	0x6e8444…
06-15 17:49:00	Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	BUY	12	34¢	$4	0x2988d0…
06-14 12:29:06	fifwc ger kor 2026 06 14 spread home 3pt5	Germany	BUY	22	51¢	$11	0x5c0206…
06-13 21:43:40	Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Yes	BUY	23	64¢	$15	0x7f47dd…
06-13 14:05:43	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 13?	Yes	BUY	12	34¢	$4	0x6d5ad6…
06-13 04:18:48	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 13?	Yes	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x314030…
06-13 04:18:40	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 13?	No	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x04069b…
06-13 04:18:27	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 13?	Yes	BUY	15	45¢	$7	0xd70332…
06-12 16:25:10	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 12?	Yes	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0x52db83…
06-12 14:31:00	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 12?	Yes	BUY	31	10¢	$3	0x0f3537…
06-12 14:30:48	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 12?	Yes	BUY	22	45¢	$10	0x46b44b…
06-11 10:16:18	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 11?	Yes	BUY	4	45¢	$2	0xcc70b9…
06-11 10:16:15	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 11?	Yes	BUY	15	21¢	$3	0x707c8b…
06-11 10:09:18	Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Yes	BUY	4	69¢	$3	0x0993c9…
06-11 10:08:12	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 11?	Yes	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0xf14b2f…
06-11 06:42:00	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 11?	Yes	BUY	6	49¢	$3	0xbc7feb…
06-11 04:52:15	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 11?	Yes	BUY	6	48¢	$3	0x2d7773…
06-11 03:21:24	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 11?	Yes	BUY	4	46¢	$2	0x9a7a3e…
06-11 03:21:19	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 11?	Yes	BUY	26	30¢	$8	0x1a45d4…