Overlooked-Assumption — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$52

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

72.4%

Resolved

Trades

748

lifetime

Volume

$17.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$23

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-30

last 06-09 03:23

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 9 days

Categories

Other

73% — —

Crypto

20% 35% $-52

Politics

6% — —

Sports

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

53 active days in 12wk • peak 34 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
cs2 esc1 sta6 2026 04 07	33	$905	828	828	+0	open	—	04-07 08:48
spx opens up or down on march 4 2026	5	$672	800	800	+0	open	—	03-04 09:26
spx up or down on april 23 2026	18	$668	423	423	+0	open	—	04-23 10:07
spy up or down on april 15 2026	3	$640	615	615	+0	open	—	04-15 10:22
LoL: Top Esports vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend	8	$630	414	414	+0	open	—	04-25 07:36
cricipl che kol 2026 04 14	2	$623	317	317	+0	open	—	04-14 17:45
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 24?	6	$598	460	460	+0	open	—	04-24 07:27
dota2 gl ts8 2026 04 09	2	$595	465	465	+0	open	—	04-09 10:40
cs2 bca shk 2026 04 24	2	$593	345	345	+0	open	—	04-24 12:08
cricipl sun raj 2026 04 13	2	$593	306	305	+1	open	—	04-13 17:28
spy up or down on april 16 2026	12	$579	519	519	+0	open	—	04-16 13:56
will witkoff meet with iranian officials by february 28	11	$567	600	600	+0	open	—	02-06 12:27
spx up or down on april 17 2026	3	$505	270	270	+0	open	—	04-17 13:59
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs	3	$460	500	500	+0	open	—	04-25 08:16
spx up or down on march 12 2026	3	$440	804	904	-100	open	—	03-12 12:51
lol gz shg 2026 04 12	7	$419	537	379	+158	open	—	04-12 11:01
will iran conduct a military action against israel on march 19 2026 486	3	$414	310	310	+0	open	—	03-23 04:08
spx up or down on april 20 2026	6	$382	520	520	+0	open	—	04-20 05:23
infinex fdv above 200m one day after launch 274	8	$375	699	0	+699	open	—	01-31 00:40
Billions FDV above $200M one day after launch?	3	$366	200	200	+0	Yes	+$22	05-04 14:52
spx opens up or down on february 24 2026	13	$363	400	400	+0	open	—	02-24 13:20
Over $20M committed to the Printr public sale?	2	$352	232	232	+0	open	—	04-30 14:12
lol dk gen 2026 04 11	8	$306	184	184	+0	open	—	04-11 10:34
btc updown 5m 1771991400	17	$294	612	0	+612	open	—	02-25 03:50
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch?	2	$282	186	186	+0	open	—	03-17 08:48
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	6	$276	863	863	+0	open	—	03-02 07:31
Tria FDV above $200M one day after launch?	4	$259	302	302	+0	open	—	02-04 08:10
spx opens up or down on march 13 2026	6	$243	150	200	-50	open	—	03-13 11:51
us strikes iraq by february 28	4	$217	50,100	50,100	+0	open	—	03-04 13:50
Over $60M committed to the Printr public sale?	2	$201	169	169	+0	open	—	04-28 13:15

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-09 03:23:21	btc updown 5m 1780975200	Up	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xe8375a…
06-09 03:14:39	btc updown 5m 1780974600	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x743ea1…
06-09 03:12:18	btc updown 5m 1780974600	Down	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0xef3a90…
06-08 03:22:34	btc updown 5m 1780888800	Up	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xe98435…
06-08 03:14:54	btc updown 5m 1780888200	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x5bfe89…
06-07 03:23:09	btc updown 5m 1780802400	Up	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0xcd3113…
06-06 03:28:36	btc updown 5m 1780716300	Down	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x86fff2…
06-05 03:59:07	btc updown 5m 1780631700	Down	SELL	5	95¢	$5	0x6548b8…
06-05 03:56:48	btc updown 5m 1780631700	Down	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x1d2d9e…
06-05 03:27:03	btc updown 5m 1780629900	Down	SELL	3	82¢	$2	0xab528e…
06-05 03:26:49	btc updown 5m 1780629900	Down	BUY	3	78¢	$2	0xcfb08f…
06-04 03:11:40	btc updown 5m 1780542600	Down	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xc80c56…
06-03 03:49:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Down	SELL	5	25¢	$1	0x1b1099…
06-03 03:49:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Down	BUY	5	11¢	$1	0xe0ec43…
06-03 03:35:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	Down	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x056ebf…
06-02 05:07:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Down	SELL	5	40¢	$2	0xde30c2…
06-02 05:07:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Down	SELL	0	40¢	$0	0xeabad2…
06-02 05:06:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Down	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0xb6b6a8…
06-01 03:00:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x3889f9…
06-01 02:57:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Down	SELL	3	57¢	$2	0xce471f…
06-01 02:56:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Down	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x3a5a5d…
06-01 02:54:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	Down	SELL	5	80¢	$4	0x164750…
06-01 02:51:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	Down	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x818a50…
05-31 03:34:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	Down	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x1544ec…
05-30 03:54:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	Down	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0x246f39…
05-30 03:16:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Down	BUY	3	83¢	$2	0x037004…
05-30 03:10:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Down	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0xcf0c9f…
05-30 03:09:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Down	SELL	4	22¢	$1	0x24d756…
05-30 03:08:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Down	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0xc8b1a8…
05-30 03:07:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Up	SELL	10	36¢	$4	0x9ca324…
05-30 03:07:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Up	BUY	4	30¢	$1	0xd7cf0f…
05-30 03:07:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Up	BUY	6	30¢	$2	0x00a741…
05-29 03:38:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x9a4d0d…
05-28 04:41:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	Down	BUY	10	15¢	$2	0x982609…
05-28 04:32:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET	Down	BUY	10	30¢	$3	0xd92fa9…
05-28 04:26:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	Down	BUY	10	40¢	$4	0x0eac3e…
05-28 04:18:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Down	SELL	12	98¢	$11	0x620829…
05-28 04:15:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Down	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0x31797c…
05-27 04:47:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET	Down	BUY	10	11¢	$1	0xaeecc2…
05-27 04:45:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	Down	BUY	10	7¢	$1	0xc578ef…
05-27 04:37:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	Down	BUY	10	30¢	$3	0xbfaf11…
05-27 03:59:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xf01725…
05-27 03:59:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	Down	BUY	17	58¢	$10	0xaad2c0…
05-27 03:53:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	Down	SELL	10	30¢	$3	0x6eec9c…
05-27 03:44:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Down	SELL	10	42¢	$4	0xdf1286…
05-27 03:42:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Down	BUY	6	26¢	$2	0xe489b9…
05-27 03:42:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Down	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0xd9214a…
05-27 03:36:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	Up	BUY	2	5¢	$0	0x1bb358…
05-27 03:36:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	Up	BUY	6	5¢	$0	0x08b379…
05-27 03:36:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	Up	BUY	2	5¢	$0	0xe1810a…
05-27 03:35:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET	Up	SELL	10	7¢	$1	0x5d29b3…
05-27 03:33:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	Down	SELL	10	90¢	$9	0xc7ab71…
05-27 03:32:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	Down	BUY	3	47¢	$1	0x999d67…
05-27 03:32:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	Down	BUY	7	47¢	$3	0x0f5d82…
05-27 03:31:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET	Up	BUY	8	50¢	$4	0x8c6627…
05-27 03:31:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x63fe43…
05-27 03:27:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	Up	SELL	5	18¢	$1	0x323268…
05-27 03:25:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	Up	SELL	5	22¢	$1	0x777dd4…
05-27 03:25:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	Up	SELL	0	22¢	$0	0x56ddda…
05-27 03:22:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	Up	BUY	10	11¢	$1	0x1abc59…
05-26 05:34:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	Down	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x21965e…
05-26 05:14:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	Down	BUY	88	8¢	$7	0xaebc7b…
05-26 05:13:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	Down	BUY	33	15¢	$5	0xfecbb8…
05-26 04:38:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xf82b09…
05-26 04:04:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	Up	SELL	20	47¢	$9	0xbdb2d2…
05-26 04:04:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	Up	BUY	20	40¢	$8	0x13d2ab…
05-26 03:29:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	Down	BUY	10	13¢	$1	0x504430…
05-26 03:28:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	Up	SELL	10	20¢	$2	0xd2ea31…
05-26 03:27:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	Up	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0x1a0090…
05-26 03:23:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Down	SELL	5	30¢	$2	0x09e2ed…
05-26 03:21:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Down	BUY	4	15¢	$1	0xae97a0…
05-26 03:21:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Down	BUY	4	15¢	$1	0x4e15b9…
05-26 03:21:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Down	BUY	3	15¢	$0	0x353816…
05-26 03:14:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Down	SELL	5	78¢	$4	0xfc4075…
05-26 03:12:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Down	SELL	5	30¢	$2	0x094368…
05-26 03:12:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Down	BUY	10	15¢	$2	0x3c2f2f…
05-25 03:54:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	Up	BUY	10	54¢	$5	0xb8a390…
05-25 03:27:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	Up	BUY	10	38¢	$4	0x73d505…
05-24 03:34:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	Up	BUY	107	1¢	$1	0x171a8b…
05-24 03:09:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Down	BUY	10	30¢	$3	0x20eb21…
05-23 03:19:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Up	BUY	2	28¢	$0	0x666596…
05-23 03:19:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Up	BUY	2	28¢	$1	0x9319c5…
05-23 03:19:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Up	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0x6f87ce…
05-23 03:19:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Up	BUY	1	28¢	$0	0x0b56bd…
05-23 03:10:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Up	SELL	9	50¢	$4	0xefc8d3…
05-23 03:10:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Up	BUY	1	47¢	$0	0xcd15fd…
05-23 03:10:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Up	BUY	3	47¢	$1	0xb4fe0d…
05-23 03:10:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	47¢	$3	0x5d51be…
05-23 03:03:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Down	BUY	6	15¢	$1	0xf1b412…
05-23 03:03:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Down	BUY	4	15¢	$1	0xeadbc7…
05-23 02:58:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Down	BUY	6	15¢	$1	0x7b2fa0…
05-23 02:58:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Down	BUY	3	15¢	$0	0x65ebc6…
05-23 02:58:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Down	BUY	1	15¢	$0	0x2263c5…
05-23 02:58:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Down	BUY	0	15¢	$0	0x1bee47…
05-23 02:54:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	Down	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x137ca6…
05-22 05:20:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	Down	BUY	20	3¢	$1	0xc45fdb…
05-22 04:59:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Down	BUY	20	21¢	$4	0x4f1539…
05-22 04:24:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	Up	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0x9a5471…
05-22 04:19:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Up	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0xbf10d3…
05-22 04:19:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Up	BUY	4	1¢	$0	0x27c92c…