Overlooked-Assumption — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$7

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

35.5%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$21

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-08

last 05-15 04:18

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Crypto

100% 33% +$7

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

5 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	1	$4	0	5	-5	open	—	05-15 04:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	1	$4	10	0	+10	Up	$-4	05-13 03:46
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	1	$4	10	0	+10	Down	+$6	05-14 03:35
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	1	$3	0	5	-5	Up	$-2	05-08 12:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	1	$2	6	0	+6	open	—	05-15 03:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	1	$2	10	0	+10	Up	+$8	05-13 02:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	1	$2	11	0	+11	Down	$-2	05-10 02:31
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	1	$1	10	0	+10	Down	$-1	05-10 03:22

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-15 04:18:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Down	SELL	5	90¢	$4	0xf629a2…
05-15 03:48:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Down	BUY	6	35¢	$2	0xcf9516…
05-14 03:35:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	Down	BUY	10	35¢	$4	0x4fbf77…
05-13 03:46:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Down	BUY	10	39¢	$4	0x54495a…
05-13 02:13:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Up	BUY	10	17¢	$2	0xcc2b08…
05-10 03:22:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Up	BUY	10	6¢	$1	0x24fc6c…
05-10 02:31:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Up	BUY	11	16¢	$2	0x8f7602…
05-08 12:24:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Up	SELL	5	62¢	$3	0xca285e…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
(anonymous) 0xe907…cff6	8	$3.40K	135	05-15 04:20
Little-Fraction 0xcfb1…f694	8	$3.05K	19	05-15 04:15
Novel-Morbid 0x4766…5a03	8	$713	58	05-15 04:18
Slight-Goodnight 0x6088…f361	8	$574	22	05-15 04:15
Popular-Insurrection 0xeebd…ba30	7	$4.09K	74	05-15 04:18
Upset-Sight 0xe022…6603	6	$1.03K	81	05-15 04:18
Ambitious-Membership 0xc387…e4f4	6	$823	13	05-15 04:18
Exalted-Mattress 0xa8cc…41a9	6	$533	19	05-15 04:18