Downright-Complexity — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$28

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

48.4%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$246

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-11

last 07-04 21:46

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

51% — —

Sports

33% 60% +$28

Politics

14% — —

Crypto

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

11 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (4) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Mother's Milk die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	3	$25	145	0	+145	open	—	05-20 05:53
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in May?	2	$14	1,111	1,111	+0	open	—	04-30 22:43
Will Sean Strickland win by KO or TKO?	1	$13	109	0	+109	No	$-13	05-09 15:37
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	1	$10	59	0	+59	open	—	06-03 04:16
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?	1	$10	38	0	+38	open	—	05-31 16:15
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April?	1	$10	23	0	+23	open	—	04-17 17:17
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)	1	$10	52	0	+52	Sean Strickland	+$42	05-08 23:40
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	1	$9	18	0	+18	open	—	04-30 21:24
Will Canada have the highest unemployment rate since 2016 this year?	2	$8	55	55	+0	open	—	07-04 21:46
nhl car nyi 2026 04 14	1	$7	18	0	+18	open	—	04-14 22:59
mlb bos min 2026 04 14	1	$7	16	0	+16	open	—	04-14 23:00
Golden Knights vs. Ducks	2	$6	9	0	+9	Ducks	+$3	05-11 03:34
mlb nym lad 2026 04 15	1	$5	8	0	+8	open	—	04-16 01:18
2026 rbc heritage winner jordan spieth win	1	$5	128	0	+128	open	—	04-16 15:32
Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?	1	$5	45	0	+45	open	—	04-21 18:28
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox	1	$5	12	0	+12	open	—	04-21 22:57
Pistons vs. Cavaliers	1	$5	12	0	+12	Cavaliers	$-5	05-11 21:59
Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31?	1	$5	83	0	+83	open	—	04-29 03:08
Lightning vs. Canadiens	1	$5	10	0	+10	open	—	05-01 18:48
Oilers vs. Ducks	1	$5	11	0	+11	open	—	04-30 20:21
Will Kerry-Lynne Findlay win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia leadership election?	1	$5	101	0	+101	open	—	04-20 18:26
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	1	$5	14	0	+14	open	—	04-24 06:56
us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by april 30 894	1	$5	14	0	+14	open	—	04-11 21:14
Will Trump say "Christian" during King Charles visit?	1	$5	11	0	+11	open	—	04-22 05:43
2026 rbc heritage winner patrick cantlay win	1	$5	106	0	+106	open	—	04-16 15:29
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles	1	$5	11	0	+11	open	—	05-31 16:16
Atlanta Braves vs. Washington Nationals	1	$5	9	0	+9	open	—	04-21 22:57
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	1	$4	7	0	+7	open	—	04-17 18:11
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?	1	$3	333	0	+333	open	—	05-13 15:27
Jiujiang: Adam Walton vs Alexis Galarneau	1	$3	8	0	+8	open	—	04-30 22:46

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-04 21:46:19	Will Canada have the highest unemployment rate since 2016 this year?	Yes	SELL	55	6¢	$3	0x5b38ef…
06-18 16:18:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0xe035cb…
06-04 23:10:40	nhl las car 2026 06 04	Golden Knights	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x37df05…
06-03 04:36:13	Iran coup attempt by June 30?	Yes	BUY	40	5¢	$2	0xc00749…
06-03 04:21:45	Will Canada have the highest unemployment rate since 2016 this year?	Yes	BUY	55	9¢	$5	0x917c0f…
06-03 04:16:44	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	59	17¢	$10	0x7f08b3…
05-31 16:16:49	Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles	Toronto Blue Jays	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0xfdb04f…
05-31 16:15:34	Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?	No	BUY	38	26¢	$10	0x04a7a4…
05-30 21:56:14	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	7¢	$2	0x7b742f…
05-30 21:55:18	Will Alien arrests in New York hit 4800+ by June 30?	Yes	BUY	12	17¢	$2	0x605d64…
05-20 05:53:21	Will Mother's Milk die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	BUY	42	5¢	$2	0xd8f3c1…
05-20 05:51:56	Will Mother's Milk die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	BUY	62	5¢	$3	0x187e2a…
05-20 05:49:50	Will Kimiko Miyashiro die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	BUY	15	6¢	$1	0x8f0ad6…
05-20 05:49:41	Will Sister Sage die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0xe6b6e7…
05-13 15:37:41	Epstein suicide note released by May 31?	Yes	BUY	18	11¢	$2	0xb55e19…
05-13 15:27:09	Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?	Yes	BUY	333	1¢	$3	0x072ba1…
05-11 22:01:39	Avalanche vs. Wild	Avalanche	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x46299e…
05-11 21:59:40	Pistons vs. Cavaliers	Pistons	BUY	12	42¢	$5	0xfc3891…
05-11 03:34:50	Golden Knights vs. Ducks	Ducks	BUY	7	71¢	$5	0xca5dcd…
05-11 00:52:30	Golden Knights vs. Ducks	Ducks	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xb6d27c…
05-09 15:37:12	Will Sean Strickland win by KO or TKO?	Yes	BUY	109	12¢	$13	0x86d955…
05-08 23:40:36	UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)	Sean Strickland	BUY	52	19¢	$10	0xa3b5ea…
05-01 18:48:16	Lightning vs. Canadiens	Canadiens	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0xf0bae8…
04-30 22:46:36	Jiujiang: Adam Walton vs Alexis Galarneau	Alexis Galarneau	BUY	8	39¢	$3	0x66f970…
04-30 22:43:44	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in May?	No	SELL	1,111	0¢	$4	0x24f2fb…
04-30 21:24:46	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	Yes	BUY	18	49¢	$9	0x9a1015…
04-30 20:21:56	Oilers vs. Ducks	Ducks	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0x4bf4b1…
04-30 20:05:30	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in May?	No	BUY	1,111	1¢	$10	0x710e72…
04-29 03:08:30	Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31?	Yes	BUY	83	6¢	$5	0x4f0f2a…
04-24 06:59:04	will trump say bigly today	Yes	BUY	80	3¢	$2	0x298b0b…
04-24 06:58:44	will trump wear a yellow tie today	Yes	BUY	33	6¢	$2	0x645d48…
04-24 06:56:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	14	36¢	$5	0x771ecb…
04-22 05:43:08	Will Trump say "Christian" during King Charles visit?	Yes	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0x6dd38e…
04-21 22:57:16	New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox	New York Yankees	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0xd84546…
04-21 22:57:02	Atlanta Braves vs. Washington Nationals	Atlanta Braves	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x970835…
04-21 18:28:50	Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?	Yes	BUY	45	11¢	$5	0xd09d55…
04-20 18:39:16	will donald trump publicly insult someone on april 23 2026	No	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x8b94ad…
04-20 18:39:08	will donald trump publicly insult someone on april 22 2026	No	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x15ab08…
04-20 18:39:00	will donald trump publicly insult someone on april 21 2026	No	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x31c52a…
04-20 18:26:14	Will Kerry-Lynne Findlay win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia leadership election?	Yes	BUY	101	5¢	$5	0x3e2618…
04-17 18:11:10	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	BUY	7	61¢	$4	0x5ba2f7…
04-17 17:17:54	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April?	Yes	BUY	23	44¢	$10	0x2072c9…
04-16 15:48:26	Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?	No	BUY	40	5¢	$2	0xf3c04c…
04-16 15:44:12	btc updown 5m 1776354000	Up	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0xf497eb…
04-16 15:32:52	2026 rbc heritage winner jordan spieth win	Yes	BUY	128	4¢	$5	0xf2b3c1…
04-16 15:29:04	2026 rbc heritage winner patrick cantlay win	Yes	BUY	106	5¢	$5	0x34750d…
04-16 01:19:34	lib ind1 ucv 2026 04 15 ucv	Yes	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0xcc262c…
04-16 01:18:48	sud mil bor 2026 04 15 bor	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x2329ff…
04-16 01:18:24	mlb nym lad 2026 04 15	Los Angeles Dodgers	BUY	8	64¢	$5	0x7d784e…
04-16 01:15:44	lib cor san1 2026 04 15 san1	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x03e26e…
04-16 01:10:46	btc updown 5m 1776301800	Down	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0xf0a44b…
04-16 01:07:26	btc updown 5m 1776301500	Up	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x37b45d…
04-14 23:00:06	mlb bos min 2026 04 14	Minnesota Twins	BUY	16	44¢	$7	0x317c64…
04-14 22:59:34	nhl car nyi 2026 04 14	Hurricanes	BUY	18	40¢	$7	0x901234…
04-14 22:54:06	Will Mother's Milk die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	BUY	41	49¢	$20	0x917d9b…
04-12 02:11:19	will trump say nuke this week april 19	Yes	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x11ee25…
04-12 02:08:01	will sam burns win the 2026 masters tournament	Yes	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0xd29253…
04-11 21:14:13	us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by april 30 894	Yes	BUY	14	36¢	$5	0xbf9f17…