Plush-Reminder — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1.87K

Unrealized P&L

-$12

Hit rate

76.3%

Resolved

285

Trades

648

lifetime

Volume

$22.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$35

Open exposure

$13

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-05

last 10-27 15:48

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 121 days

Categories

Other

76% 68% +$1,486

Politics

13% 74% +$577

Tech

10% 72% -$19

Sports

1% 50% -$160

Crypto

0% 0% -$13

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

24 active days in 12wk • peak 28 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31?	No		+12	$5	99¢	$12	+$7	10-10 08:13
Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 150m and 160m by October 31?	No		+48	$20	2¢	$1	-$19	10-02 15:57

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?	8	$1.1K	949	471	+478	No	-$49	08-31 19:40
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?	3	$759	478	478	+0	No	+$159	08-28 15:32
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 940m and 950m by September 30?	5	$666	557	557	+0	No	+$226	09-08 08:06
Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look" get less than 10 million views on day 1?	7	$653	716	716	+0	Yes	+$293	08-28 17:37
Will 220 or more ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 24-August 30?	7	$580	665	0	+665	No	+$85	08-31 13:09
Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look" get between 15 and 20 million views on day 1?	2	$500	559	0	+559	No	+$59	08-28 12:26
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?	4	$438	239	239	+0	No	+$38	05-31 09:41
Houthis capture Taiz city by October 31?	1	$400	428	0	+428	open	—	10-27 08:13
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1?	4	$378	217	217	+0	No	+$56	10-04 07:23
Will fewer than 170 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 28-October 4?	2	$376	343	86	+257	No	+$34	10-03 15:47
Ebola case in the US by June 30?	12	$372	511	3	+508	No	+$138	06-05 13:36
gpt 5pt3 released by february 28 394 385	8	$352	225	225	+0	No	+$78	02-27 11:31
Will OpenAI announce that it has resumed training on October 4, 2026?	3	$310	344	0	+344	No	+$34	09-27 15:43
Will "Resident Evil" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 13m and 14m?	1	$300	400	0	+400	No	+$100	10-02 11:30
Will MrBeast's next video get at least 45 million views on day 1?	1	$300	385	0	+385	Yes	-$300	10-02 19:02
Will the EU lift its ban on Russian diesel imports by October 31, 2026?	1	$300	347	0	+347	No	+$47	10-10 07:55
Will "Forgotten Island" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 13m?	3	$298	240	240	+0	No	+$78	09-27 15:25
Will gas hit (High) $4.70 by May 31?	11	$289	188	188	+0	No	+$69	05-29 19:21
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	5	$260	136	136	+0	No	+$10	05-29 13:43
gpt 5pt3 released by march 31 2026 735 745 742	7	$240	1,202	1,202	+0	Yes	-$14	03-03 15:29
Will there be between 30 and 34 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on August 31?	4	$227	231	144	+87	No	+$13	08-31 13:45
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before May 31, 2026?	5	$222	244	0	+244	No	+$22	05-30 10:12
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released on September 28, 2026?	3	$220	413	0	+413	Yes	-$220	09-27 16:08
Will Trump say "Uranium" this week?	10	$213	298	75	+224	No	+$145	06-01 12:29
Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31?	9	$212	173	158	+16	No	+$56	05-28 15:00
Gemini 3.2 released by May 15, 2026?	2	$211	157	118	+39	No	+$50	05-10 16:23
Will there be between 35 and 39 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on August 31?	2	$210	227	0	+227	No	+$17	08-28 16:20
Will "Resident Evil" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 14m and 15m?	3	$210	224	0	+224	No	+$14	10-02 13:53
Will 200-219 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 24-August 30?	3	$208	305	0	+305	No	+$97	08-31 19:40
Will MrBeast's next video get at least 100 million views on week 1?	1	$200	267	0	+267	Yes	-$200	10-02 19:03

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 15:48:11	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $30M?	No	BUY	12	41¢	$5	0xa11edb…
10-27 15:45:11	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $15M?	No	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x5d4277…
10-27 08:13:36	Houthis capture Taiz city by November 30?	No	BUY	92	65¢	$60	0x09bc2c…
10-27 08:13:08	Houthis capture Taiz city by October 31?	No	BUY	428	93¢	$400	0xa7fff9…
10-27 08:06:51	Lyon curfew effectively lifted by October 31?	Yes	BUY	117	85¢	$100	0xf65677…
10-27 08:06:15	Will "As It Was" by Harry Styles be on the radio in GTA VI at launch?	No	BUY	11	88¢	$10	0x596c81…
10-27 08:06:08	Will "Mo Bamba" by Sheck Wes be on the radio in GTA VI at launch?	No	BUY	11	89¢	$10	0x311b43…
10-27 08:05:57	Will "God's Plan" by Drake be on the radio in GTA VI at launch?	No	BUY	13	78¢	$10	0xafb0f7…
10-27 08:05:45	Will "Bad and Boujee" by Migos, Lil Uzi Vert be on the radio in GTA VI at launch?	No	BUY	16	61¢	$10	0x4f8f02…
10-27 08:05:36	Will "Blinding Lights" by The Weeknd be on the radio in GTA VI at launch?	No	BUY	7	75¢	$5	0x5762ee…
10-27 08:05:26	Will "Mask Off" by Future be on the radio in GTA VI at launch?	No	BUY	27	73¢	$20	0xc33117…
10-27 08:05:21	Will "Sicko Mode" by Travis Scott be on the radio in GTA VI at launch?	No	BUY	13	76¢	$10	0x5006bb…
10-27 08:04:59	Will "Pepas" by Farruko be on the radio in GTA VI at launch?	No	BUY	24	42¢	$10	0x90f154…
10-20 18:05:03	Will Riyadh airport reopen (50+ departures) by October 31?	No	BUY	76	53¢	$40	0xeaf40b…
10-13 16:49:39	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 launch by November 15, 2026?	No	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x79d346…
10-13 16:48:15	Will there be exactly 3 Codex weekly usage limit resets in the week of October 12?	No	BUY	82	61¢	$50	0x149ba6…
10-13 16:47:13	will clayface score at least 80 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer 20261026	No	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xaf344d…
10-13 16:46:58	Will "Street Fighter" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 25m and 30m?	No	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0xd20490…
10-13 16:46:37	will godzilla minus zero score at least 92 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer 20261109	No	BUY	23	22¢	$5	0x51503f…
10-13 16:45:57	Next James Bond announced by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	27	73¢	$20	0xe1e8ad…
10-13 16:44:55	will wildwood score at least 96 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer 20261026	No	BUY	37	27¢	$10	0xbb1c17…
10-12 16:18:18	Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.3M and 7.4M in September?	No	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0x646701…
10-12 16:17:48	Will JOLTS Job Openings be below 6.8M in September?	No	BUY	14	71¢	$10	0xa4f581…
10-12 16:16:56	Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.2M and 7.3M in September?	No	BUY	12	86¢	$10	0xa1a9d5…
10-12 16:16:26	Will JOLTS Job Openings be at least 7.4M in September?	No	BUY	29	69¢	$20	0x3d5936…
10-12 16:15:50	Will "Whalefall" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 8m and 10m?	No	BUY	14	69¢	$10	0x9146e2…
10-12 16:14:53	Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 43.0 and 45.9 in October?	No	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x689b08…
10-12 16:14:44	Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 43.0 and 45.9 in October?	No	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xc91180…
10-12 16:14:02	Will Claude go down 11-13 times in October?	No	BUY	13	78¢	$10	0x7217f2…
10-12 16:13:51	ChatGPT Full Outage by October 31?	No	BUY	14	73¢	$10	0x5036d8…
10-12 16:13:47	ChatGPT Full Outage by October 31?	No	BUY	14	73¢	$10	0x882174…
10-12 14:48:53	Will GitHub's longest critical incident in October 2026 be at least 12 hours?	No	BUY	114	88¢	$100	0x1e7c02…
10-12 14:48:41	Will GitHub's longest critical incident in October 2026 be at least 12 hours?	No	BUY	114	88¢	$100	0xab068e…
10-12 14:35:11	Will "Street Fighter" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 25m?	No	BUY	106	28¢	$30	0x3acfc4…
10-12 14:34:39	Will the #1 global Netflix movie have between 20 and 24 million views this week?	No	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0xa9ff06…
10-12 14:33:05	Will "You Can See Everything" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 7m?	No	BUY	126	40¢	$50	0xd53afe…
10-10 16:47:52	Will "Whalefall" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 8m?	No	BUY	111	45¢	$50	0xd04ace…
10-10 08:13:16	Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31?	No	BUY	12	42¢	$5	0x773119…
10-10 08:11:06	Will Ledger announce compensation or reimbursement for affected users by October 16?	No	BUY	115	87¢	$100	0x219900…
10-10 07:55:40	Will the EU lift its ban on Russian diesel imports by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	128	78¢	$100	0xf75fd8…
10-10 07:55:24	Will the EU lift its ban on Russian diesel imports by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	347	86¢	$300	0xd040b8…
10-10 07:25:33	Will "Other Mommy" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 27m and 30m?	No	BUY	26	38¢	$10	0x83909e…
10-09 18:40:01	Will "Verity" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 13m and 14m?	No	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0xc5879b…
10-09 18:38:26	Will "Other Mommy" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 27m and 30m?	No	BUY	63	47¢	$30	0xa7c11c…
10-09 17:48:53	OpenAI resumes training by October 10, 2026?	No	BUY	213	94¢	$200	0xa33e5b…
10-09 16:17:33	Will "The Social Reckoning" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 5m?	No	BUY	57	53¢	$30	0xb82dba…
10-09 16:16:44	Will "The Social Reckoning" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 5m and 7m?	No	SELL	103	48¢	$50	0xb370f8…
10-09 16:16:18	Will "The Social Reckoning" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 5m?	No	BUY	91	55¢	$50	0xbffc16…
10-07 16:32:41	Will Jynxzi, Ron and Los beat the Minecraft challenge by October 10?	No	BUY	45	22¢	$10	0x0d2f8b…
10-07 15:46:17	Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 3?	No	SELL	97	35¢	$34	0x60c1f9…
10-07 15:45:44	Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 8?	No	SELL	61	45¢	$27	0xb5f1b4…
10-06 10:16:58	Will gas be below $3.75/gallon in any state on October 31?	Yes	BUY	14	74¢	$10	0x03be23…
10-06 07:52:34	Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 3?	No	SELL	32	54¢	$17	0x48efdd…
10-04 09:18:43	Will "The Social Reckoning" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 5m and 7m?	No	BUY	34	29¢	$10	0xafbfbe…
10-04 09:18:05	Will "The Social Reckoning" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 5m and 7m?	No	BUY	69	29¢	$20	0x1614cc…
10-04 08:03:08	Will "Heart of the Beast" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 11m?	Yes	BUY	23	26¢	$6	0xcb0d1e…
10-04 07:41:44	Will a new pneumonic plague case be confirmed in Russia by October 15?	No	BUY	109	92¢	$100	0x3557d4…
10-04 07:23:40	Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1?	No	SELL	217	100¢	$217	0x2f78b9…
10-03 15:47:50	Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1?	No	BUY	102	74¢	$75	0x91be2e…
10-03 15:47:23	Will fewer than 170 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 28-October 4?	No	SELL	86	89¢	$76	0x8e002a…
10-03 15:44:47	Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1?	No	BUY	104	74¢	$77	0x066d8e…
10-03 15:43:45	Will anyone insult Donald Trump during the 2026 Emmy Awards?	No	SELL	98	80¢	$79	0x09ae24…
10-03 15:41:56	Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1?	No	BUY	11	74¢	$8	0x37cf66…
10-02 19:05:12	Will "Resident Evil" 3rd Weekend Box Office be at least 15m?	No	BUY	56	90¢	$50	0xe8edd0…
10-02 19:03:14	Will MrBeast's next video get at least 100 million views on week 1?	No	BUY	267	75¢	$200	0xd39b76…
10-02 19:02:38	Will MrBeast's next video get at least 45 million views on day 1?	No	BUY	385	78¢	$300	0x15196c…
10-02 15:57:59	Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 150m and 160m by October 31?	No	BUY	48	42¢	$20	0xa08afa…
10-02 13:53:17	Will "Resident Evil" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 14m and 15m?	No	BUY	12	80¢	$10	0x80486d…
10-02 11:31:54	Will "Resident Evil" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 14m and 15m?	No	BUY	105	95¢	$100	0xf931cb…
10-02 11:31:09	Will "Resident Evil" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 14m and 15m?	No	BUY	106	95¢	$100	0xfadd09…
10-02 11:30:36	Will "Resident Evil" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 13m and 14m?	No	BUY	400	75¢	$300	0xb93c88…
10-02 10:16:21	Will "Resident Evil" 3rd Weekend Box Office be at least 15m?	No	BUY	63	95¢	$60	0x20ecee…
10-02 10:14:47	Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 25?	No	BUY	124	81¢	$100	0x76db43…
10-02 10:13:41	Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 1?	No	BUY	59	85¢	$50	0x0fe0f0…
10-02 10:12:29	Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 10?	No	BUY	61	82¢	$50	0x6cc1e1…
10-02 10:12:06	Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 8?	No	BUY	61	82¢	$50	0xe7f26b…
10-02 10:11:50	Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 7?	No	BUY	50	80¢	$40	0x7eb5fa…
10-02 10:11:15	Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 3?	No	BUY	129	78¢	$100	0xe802eb…
10-02 10:10:54	Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 9?	No	BUY	134	74¢	$100	0x3ee14a…
10-02 09:30:12	Will fewer than 170 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 28-October 4?	No	BUY	343	87¢	$300	0xce99a4…
10-02 08:36:17	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 11?	Yes	BUY	127	79¢	$100	0xfb4817…
10-02 08:35:45	Will Trump name an AI czar by October 4, 2026?	Yes	BUY	53	38¢	$20	0x431382…
10-02 08:32:44	Will Trump name an AI czar by October 4, 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	38¢	$5	0x59b3f8…
09-28 11:21:54	will the life of a showgirl the encore first week sales be at least 250k	Yes	SELL	5	40¢	$2	0xd7348e…
09-28 11:05:02	will the life of a showgirl the encore first week sales be at least 250k	Yes	SELL	5	40¢	$2	0xc6370e…
09-28 11:04:57	will the life of a showgirl the encore first week sales be at least 250k	Yes	SELL	5	40¢	$2	0x71d70f…
09-28 07:27:11	will the life of a showgirl the encore first week sales be at least 250k	Yes	SELL	5	40¢	$2	0xf96b8d…
09-27 18:19:15	will the life of a showgirl the encore first week sales be at least 300k	Yes	SELL	307	12¢	$36	0x86d2bd…
09-27 18:18:14	will the life of a showgirl the encore first week sales be at least 300k	Yes	SELL	205	15¢	$31	0x3da1ae…
09-27 17:20:59	will the life of a showgirl the encore first week sales be at least 300k	Yes	BUY	819	9¢	$75	0x4a3ce4…
09-27 17:14:32	will the life of a showgirl the encore first week sales be at least 250k	Yes	BUY	292	34¢	$100	0xcb5c79…
09-27 17:14:00	will the life of a showgirl the encore first week sales be at least 200k	Yes	BUY	207	48¢	$100	0x2df9ae…
09-27 16:08:36	Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released on September 28, 2026?	No	BUY	181	55¢	$100	0x1415bf…
09-27 16:04:57	Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released on September 28, 2026?	No	BUY	193	52¢	$100	0x89f118…
09-27 16:02:48	Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released on September 28, 2026?	No	BUY	40	50¢	$20	0xf256b9…
09-27 15:45:15	Will OpenAI announce that it has resumed training on October 5, 2026?	No	BUY	37	82¢	$30	0x79a9ee…
09-27 15:43:33	Will OpenAI announce that it has resumed training on October 4, 2026?	No	BUY	108	93¢	$100	0x79c986…
09-27 15:42:20	Will OpenAI announce that it has resumed training on October 4, 2026?	No	BUY	225	89¢	$200	0x3cc1e5…
09-27 15:42:08	Will OpenAI announce that it has resumed training on October 4, 2026?	No	BUY	11	89¢	$10	0x3f8017…
09-27 15:25:23	Will "Forgotten Island" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 13m?	Yes	SELL	240	78¢	$188	0x4322f9…