Sane-Attenuation — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$672

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

45.8%

Resolved

1,288

Trades

1,958

lifetime

Volume

$68.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$35

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-09

last 08-16 22:55

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 121 days

Categories

Other

46% 71% -$222

Crypto

35% 98% -$97

Politics

18% 19% -$352

Sports

1% 0% -$2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

11 active days in 12wk • peak 13 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
netanyahu out by march 31 854	114	$9.9K	10,425	10,425	+0	No	-$8	03-18 07:13
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	71	$7.4K	5,746	5,746	+0	No	-$10	03-18 12:18
us forces enter iran by march 14 337	8	$1.4K	800	1,200	-400	No	-$61	03-14 10:34
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	25	$1.1K	1,012	1,412	-400	No	-$142	03-13 14:06
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	8	$1.1K	800	800	+0	No	+$4	03-17 09:26
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	12	$1.1K	1,000	1,000	+0	Yes	-$5	03-18 01:20
will michael b jordan win best actor at the 98th academy awards	44	$972	850	1,050	-200	Yes	+$102	03-16 02:04
Iran leadership change by April 30?	8	$806	800	800	+0	No	+$6	03-12 22:49
spx up or down on march 10 2026	7	$804	714	714	+0	Down	-$30	03-10 19:44
trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 31st	18	$780	1,000	1,000	+0	No	-$40	03-16 03:49
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?	34	$735	619	619	+0	No	-$3	03-18 02:02
cbb howrd umbc 2026 03 17 total 139pt5	6	$710	620	620	+0	Over	-$14	03-17 16:35
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	13	$704	800	800	+0	No	-$8	03-14 13:09
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	4	$644	400	400	+0	Yes	+$0	03-11 10:01
spx opens up or down on march 10 2026	9	$637	600	600	+0	Up	-$29	03-10 06:19
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	13	$618	600	600	+0	Yes	+$2	03-13 17:17
cbb howrd umbc 2026 03 17 spread home 1pt5	4	$596	633	633	+0	Howard Bison	-$2	03-17 21:15
iran leadership change by march 31	4	$586	400	400	+0	No	-$2	03-17 09:50
iran x israelus conflict ends by march 31	8	$555	400	400	+0	No	-$25	03-10 05:57
us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by march 31	9	$539	517	517	+0	No	-$10	03-16 20:31
will sinners win best picture at the 98th academy awards	23	$523	413	413	+0	No	+$0	03-15 22:47
will arizona win the 2026 ncaa tournament	14	$500	514	514	+0	No	-$2	03-18 12:11
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	8	$486	647	647	+0	No	-$8	03-17 16:11
will amy madigan win best supporting actress at the 98th academy awards	26	$456	485	485	+0	Yes	-$1	03-15 23:02
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	5	$450	400	400	+0	No	-$2	03-11 14:23
mojtaba khamenei seen in public by march 31	6	$441	420	420	+0	No	-$7	03-11 13:46
will juliana stratton be the democratic nominee for senate in illinois	11	$412	350	350	+0	Yes	$0	03-18 00:06
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?	5	$391	400	400	+0	Yes	-$5	03-09 21:10
will emmanuel grgoire win the paris mayor election	4	$360	225	225	+0	Yes	+$0	03-17 15:59
will grgory doucet win the 2026 lyon mayoral election	6	$359	391	391	+0	Yes	-$24	03-16 16:50

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-16 22:55:34	bitcoin up or down august 16 2026 6pm et	Down	BUY	50	99¢	$49	0x465586…
08-16 20:57:57	bitcoin up or down august 16 2026 4pm et	Down	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0x017c51…
08-16 15:58:18	bitcoin up or down on august 16 2026	Up	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0xefb59a…
08-16 05:55:06	ethereum up or down august 16 2026 1am et	Down	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x04a4e1…
08-16 02:28:10	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-16 02:15 UTC	Up	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x24932c…
08-15 22:57:58	bitcoin up or down august 15 2026 6pm et	Down	BUY	50	99¢	$49	0x9883e2…
08-15 15:30:15	bitcoin up or down on august 15 2026	Up	BUY	23	94¢	$22	0xdfde6d…
08-15 15:30:15	solana up or down on august 15 2026	Down	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0x378921…
08-15 15:30:12	bitcoin up or down on august 15 2026	Up	BUY	30	94¢	$28	0xdb09ba…
08-15 15:30:09	Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on August 15?	Yes	BUY	31	95¢	$29	0xcbc392…
08-15 09:58:28	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-15 09:45 UTC	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x1ee593…
08-15 09:58:25	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-15 09:45 UTC	Up	BUY	18	98¢	$18	0x1fc856…
08-14 21:59:15	ethereum up or down august 14 2026 5pm et	Down	BUY	22	98¢	$22	0xd5bc42…
08-14 21:59:00	ethereum up or down august 14 2026 5pm et	Down	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xe6ab2a…
08-14 20:31:22	wti closes above 82 on august 14 2026	Yes	BUY	52	96¢	$50	0x3f23e5…
08-14 15:33:19	solana up or down on august 14 2026	Down	BUY	52	95¢	$49	0x659f30…
08-14 15:33:15	Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on August 14?	No	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0x03225e…
08-14 15:33:12	xrp above 1 on august 14 2026	Yes	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0xa1a71c…
08-13 15:54:52	XRP Up/Down 4h · 2026-08-13 12:00 UTC	Up	BUY	51	97¢	$49	0x1091e8…
08-13 15:54:49	solana up or down on august 13 2026	Up	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0xa0ffa8…
08-13 15:54:45	bitcoin up or down on august 13 2026	Up	BUY	50	99¢	$49	0x724fc8…
08-13 06:13:19	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-13 06:00 UTC	Down	BUY	18	96¢	$17	0x6ab23e…
08-13 06:13:16	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-13 06:00 UTC	Down	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x4df96b…
08-13 06:13:13	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-13 06:00 UTC	Down	BUY	18	99¢	$18	0x57a8fc…
08-12 17:43:51	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-12 17:30 UTC	Up	BUY	18	99¢	$18	0xd17e47…
08-12 17:43:46	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-12 17:30 UTC	Up	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xe2d8b5…
08-12 15:40:46	Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on August 12?	No	BUY	6	93¢	$6	0x2ebafd…
08-12 15:40:43	ethereum above 1900 on august 12 2026	No	BUY	32	92¢	$29	0xfa37ee…
08-12 12:56:19	ethereum up or down august 12 2026 8am et	Down	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0xf1f058…
08-12 12:55:57	solana up or down august 12 2026 8am et	Down	BUY	50	99¢	$49	0xe10f99…
08-12 12:55:51	bitcoin up or down august 12 2026 8am et	Down	BUY	50	97¢	$48	0x50b40d…
08-12 03:56:55	ethereum up or down august 11 2026 11pm et	Up	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x4f4cd4…
08-12 03:56:52	bitcoin up or down august 11 2026 11pm et	Up	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0xaafec9…
08-12 01:28:22	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-12 01:15 UTC	Down	BUY	18	98¢	$18	0xa935da…
08-11 15:31:00	Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on August 11?	Yes	BUY	32	93¢	$30	0x8e8d02…
08-11 15:30:57	Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on August 11?	No	BUY	32	93¢	$30	0xaca1fa…
08-11 15:30:54	xrp above 1 on august 11 2026	Yes	BUY	32	93¢	$30	0x21d7ea…
08-11 13:04:42	Hyperliquid Up or Down - August 11, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Up	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x026c55…
08-11 08:58:30	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-11 08:45 UTC	Up	BUY	18	98¢	$18	0x4894ab…
08-11 08:58:27	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-11 08:45 UTC	Up	BUY	18	98¢	$18	0xcd628a…
08-11 08:58:24	HYPE Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-11 08:45 UTC	Up	BUY	18	99¢	$18	0xcadd6d…
08-11 08:58:19	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-11 08:45 UTC	Up	BUY	19	94¢	$18	0x0194d3…
08-11 07:59:37	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-11 07:55 UTC	Down	BUY	12	97¢	$12	0x438ef7…
08-11 04:58:58	solana up or down august 11 2026 12am et	Up	BUY	36	93¢	$34	0xd96648…
08-11 03:59:25	solana up or down august 10 2026 11pm et	Up	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x4f7d0b…
08-11 02:59:58	ethereum up or down august 10 2026 10pm et	Up	BUY	35	99¢	$35	0xdb0f80…
08-11 01:58:18	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-11 01:45 UTC	Up	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x9fed99…
08-10 23:43:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET	Down	BUY	18	98¢	$18	0xb37cbc…
08-10 22:43:10	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-10 22:30 UTC	Down	BUY	18	99¢	$18	0x587e24…
08-10 15:37:37	bitcoin above 64k on august 10 2026	Yes	BUY	30	98¢	$29	0x3c152c…
08-10 15:37:34	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on August 10?	Yes	BUY	30	98¢	$29	0xe0cd1c…
08-10 14:57:37	ethereum up or down august 10 2026 10am et	Down	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0x3922e0…
08-10 13:58:37	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-10 13:45 UTC	Down	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x3f3d57…
08-10 13:58:33	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-10 13:45 UTC	Down	BUY	18	99¢	$18	0x4b61a9…
08-10 12:44:24	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-10 12:30 UTC	Down	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0xd5eb27…
08-10 12:44:19	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-10 12:30 UTC	Down	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x2ec15e…
08-10 08:13:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x9c106f…
08-10 04:13:45	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-10 04:00 UTC	Up	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x71bafa…
08-10 00:55:45	ethereum up or down august 9 2026 8pm et	Up	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0xdf9826…
08-10 00:55:40	bitcoin up or down august 9 2026 8pm et	Up	BUY	51	97¢	$49	0x2f0361…
08-09 22:24:10	Ethereum Up or Down - August 9, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Down	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0xe9a06d…
08-09 15:44:49	ethereum up or down on august 9 2026	Up	BUY	55	90¢	$50	0xf5a912…
08-09 15:31:34	xrp up or down on august 9 2026	Down	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0x429f2d…
08-09 15:31:31	bitcoin up or down on august 9 2026	Up	BUY	51	97¢	$49	0x62cece…
08-09 13:34:24	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-09 13:30 UTC	Up	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x4112ff…
08-09 06:58:22	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-09 06:45 UTC	Up	BUY	18	99¢	$18	0xc56118…
08-09 03:58:27	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-09 03:45 UTC	Down	BUY	18	98¢	$18	0xa4e212…
08-08 23:28:42	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-08 23:15 UTC	Up	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x168dbd…
08-08 15:59:15	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-08 15:45 UTC	Up	BUY	9	98¢	$9	0xa16110…
08-08 15:58:19	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-08 15:45 UTC	Up	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x8eae52…
08-08 15:32:31	bitcoin up or down on august 8 2026	Up	BUY	50	99¢	$49	0xae304f…
08-08 15:32:28	ethereum up or down on august 8 2026	Up	BUY	53	93¢	$49	0xf1b01f…
08-08 03:19:27	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-08 03:15 UTC	Up	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0xd047e0…
08-08 03:19:24	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-08 03:15 UTC	Up	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x3ccead…
08-07 15:37:24	bitcoin up or down on august 7 2026	Up	BUY	24	99¢	$24	0xbcbbfc…
08-07 15:31:58	solana up or down on august 7 2026	Up	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0x108181…
08-07 11:13:46	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-07 11:00 UTC	Up	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x82d478…
08-06 15:35:23	bitcoin up or down on august 6 2026	Up	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0x88a9f3…
08-06 11:09:30	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-06 11:05 UTC	Down	BUY	12	94¢	$11	0xbaa5ff…
08-06 03:57:51	bitcoin up or down august 5 2026 11pm et	Down	BUY	9	99¢	$9	0x543f74…
08-05 15:31:09	bitcoin up or down on august 5 2026	Up	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0x331c21…
08-05 15:13:12	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-05 15:00 UTC	Up	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0xc83546…
08-05 12:43:36	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-05 12:30 UTC	Down	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x00da9d…
08-05 09:58:26	bitcoin up or down august 5 2026 5am et	Up	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0xe42f0e…
08-05 09:44:30	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-05 09:30 UTC	Up	BUY	13	98¢	$13	0x4e6e9c…
08-05 03:54:05	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-08-05 00:00 UTC	Up	BUY	52	95¢	$49	0xd9b83b…
08-05 03:44:02	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-05 03:30 UTC	Up	BUY	18	99¢	$18	0xc3dafe…
08-05 02:56:09	xrp up or down august 4 2026 10pm et	Up	BUY	50	99¢	$49	0x48e2da…
08-05 02:56:05	bitcoin up or down august 4 2026 10pm et	Up	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x0ba6d9…
08-04 20:30:39	wti closes above 76 on august 4 2026	No	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0x9ed1d1…
08-04 18:43:50	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-04 18:30 UTC	Down	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xd7abfc…
08-04 18:43:45	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-04 18:30 UTC	Down	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0xc6fef6…
08-04 15:50:15	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-08-04 12:00 UTC	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x93dc15…
08-04 15:48:35	ethereum up or down on august 4 2026	Up	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x2412d3…
08-04 15:32:35	bitcoin up or down on august 4 2026	Up	BUY	52	96¢	$50	0x4092f5…
08-04 11:58:06	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-04 11:45 UTC	Up	BUY	18	99¢	$18	0x48152d…
08-04 10:24:36	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-04 10:20 UTC	Up	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0xe47df4…
08-04 01:04:42	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-04 01:00 UTC	Up	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x2b80dc…
08-03 23:44:03	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-03 23:30 UTC	Down	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x1f9a88…
08-03 23:39:33	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 23:35 UTC	Down	BUY	12	97¢	$12	0xf0b914…