Fixed-Haven — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$369

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

37.6%

Resolved

247

Trades

691

lifetime

Volume

$5.51K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-08

last 11-04 20:57

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 44 days

Categories

Other

49% 47% -$125

Crypto

46% 61% -$196

Tech

3% 100% +$2

Politics

2% 0% -$50

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

17 active days in 12wk • peak 6 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 5°C on November 13?	Yes		+9	$8	76¢	$7	-$1	11-13 15:03

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will wti reach 90 in july 2026 334	23	$821	650	551	+100	Yes	-$77	07-15 16:00
Fed rate hike in 2026?	14	$643	661	660	+1	Yes	-$22	07-09 09:00
will wti reach 80 in july 2026 791	28	$479	497	497	+0	Yes	-$17	07-13 12:47
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	18	$224	219	219	+0	Yes	+$2	08-03 22:25
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 14, 2026?	9	$158	140	135	+5	No	+$2	07-05 19:18
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?	2	$119	118	118	+0	cancelled	-$1	06-29 18:25
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?	4	$116	100	100	+0	Yes	+$7	08-03 22:25
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-16 13:35 UTC	6	$59	100	0	+100	Up	+$41	06-16 13:36
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-16 15:00 UTC	4	$59	111	0	+111	Up	+$52	06-16 15:01
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-17 08:35 UTC	15	$54	575	0	+575	Down	-$54	06-17 08:37
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-16 01:20 UTC	5	$50	57	0	+57	Up	+$7	06-16 01:20
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	6	$50	68	0	+68	Down	-$50	06-16 02:17
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	9	$50	96	0	+96	Down	-$50	06-15 22:25
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	4	$50	97	0	+97	Down	-$50	06-16 02:20
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-16 02:55 UTC	6	$49	124	0	+124	Down	-$49	06-16 02:55
fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 team to advance	1	$45	76	0	+76	Spain	+$31	07-19 19:00
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-17 08:15 UTC	4	$44	95	0	+95	Down	-$44	06-17 08:15
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-17 01:20 UTC	6	$44	80	0	+80	Down	-$44	06-17 01:21
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-17 08:40 UTC	6	$44	101	0	+101	Down	-$44	06-17 08:40
Will there be two UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?	4	$41	40	40	+0	open	—	08-03 22:25
Will Shohei Ohtani win the 2026 National League MVP Award?	4	$40	40	40	+0	No	$0	08-03 22:25
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on October 7?	2	$40	33	33	+0	Yes	+$7	10-07 21:30
Will Nigel Farage get second place in the Clacton by-election?	4	$38	40	20	+20	No	-$1	07-14 08:39
bitcoin up or down march 29 2026 12pm et	3	$33	39	19	+21	Down	+$7	03-29 16:58
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-16 02:30 UTC	2	$32	56	0	+56	Up	+$24	06-16 02:31
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-16 14:20 UTC	2	$30	51	0	+51	Down	-$30	06-16 14:20
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-16 14:30 UTC	5	$30	58	0	+58	Down	-$30	06-16 14:30
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-17 08:05 UTC	6	$30	81	0	+81	Down	-$30	06-17 08:06
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-16 06:00 UTC	3	$30	40	0	+40	Up	+$10	06-16 06:01
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-17 07:25 UTC	3	$30	43	0	+43	Up	+$13	06-17 07:25

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-13 15:03:07	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 5°C on November 13?	Yes	BUY	9	92¢	$8	0xbe0145…
11-04 20:57:39	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on November 4?	No	BUY	9	89¢	$8	0x8e3fd6…
10-16 18:35:58	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on October 17?	Yes	BUY	50	6¢	$3	0x9cacd2…
10-16 08:02:30	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on October 17?	Yes	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0x02676c…
10-16 07:54:36	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on October 17?	No	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0xd7ecea…
10-15 20:37:14	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on October 16?	No	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0xcdfc12…
10-15 16:08:50	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on October 16?	Yes	BUY	5	23¢	$1	0xc2e5c4…
10-14 22:04:55	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on October 15?	Yes	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0x5f497b…
10-14 21:57:10	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 50-51°F on October 14?	Yes	BUY	20	39¢	$8	0xe2e40f…
10-14 21:20:42	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on October 15?	No	BUY	5	90¢	$4	0x5168f4…
10-14 20:51:12	Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on October 15?	No	BUY	5	88¢	$4	0x1f6d2e…
10-14 20:19:58	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on October 16?	Yes	BUY	5	29¢	$1	0x0d702b…
10-14 13:01:56	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 11°C on October 14?	No	BUY	21	49¢	$10	0x4a7891…
10-12 15:01:39	Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on October 12?	Yes	BUY	19	51¢	$10	0x2b60f8…
10-07 21:30:27	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on October 7?	Yes	SELL	33	71¢	$23	0x359986…
10-07 21:28:57	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on October 7?	Yes	BUY	42	24¢	$10	0x73b2fb…
10-07 20:03:08	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on October 7?	Yes	BUY	33	50¢	$17	0x1e18aa…
10-04 21:02:04	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on October 4?	No	BUY	11	89¢	$10	0xd77dec…
10-03 21:02:20	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on October 3?	No	BUY	12	81¢	$10	0x0dcc55…
10-03 20:02:50	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on October 3?	Yes	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0xcb9631…
10-01 19:57:54	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on October 1?	No	BUY	12	80¢	$10	0x6dede3…
09-28 22:37:45	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on September 28?	Yes	BUY	32	3¢	$1	0x3908b7…
09-28 21:02:45	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on September 28?	Yes	BUY	11	85¢	$9	0xb79771…
09-27 16:46:29	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-27 16:45 UTC	Up	SELL	5	51¢	$3	0x6709cb…
09-27 16:46:27	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-27 16:45 UTC	Up	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0x76f202…
09-26 21:02:15	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on September 26?	Yes	BUY	14	69¢	$10	0x92ac75…
09-25 20:02:05	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on September 25?	Yes	BUY	16	59¢	$9	0x442835…
09-24 21:01:45	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on September 24?	Yes	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x8f73be…
09-22 19:58:52	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on September 22?	No	BUY	10	17¢	$2	0x2287f4…
09-09 18:15:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET	Up	SELL	6	47¢	$3	0x0a9aa9…
09-09 18:15:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET	Up	BUY	6	47¢	$3	0x14047b…
08-03 22:25:56	Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	No	SELL	3	34¢	$1	0x00e7b1…
08-03 22:25:54	Will there be two UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	85¢	$17	0x0585e5…
08-03 22:25:50	Will Shohei Ohtani win the 2026 National League MVP Award?	Yes	SELL	20	58¢	$12	0xe5052d…
08-03 22:25:48	Will there be two UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?	No	SELL	20	14¢	$3	0x58f7b3…
08-03 22:25:47	Will Shohei Ohtani win the 2026 National League MVP Award?	No	SELL	20	41¢	$8	0xfd45fd…
08-03 22:25:45	Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?	Yes	SELL	50	57¢	$29	0xef496b…
07-19 19:00:19	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 team to advance	Spain	BUY	76	59¢	$45	0x218443…
07-15 19:51:31	Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?	No	SELL	50	66¢	$33	0x434707…
07-15 18:52:53	Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?	No	BUY	50	66¢	$33	0x76fa30…
07-15 16:54:47	Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	No	BUY	3	55¢	$2	0x5d8053…
07-15 16:53:55	Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	No	SELL	20	56¢	$11	0xd7869d…
07-15 16:16:28	Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	No	SELL	27	56¢	$15	0x6e9280…
07-15 16:16:02	Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	No	SELL	2	56¢	$1	0x744234…
07-15 16:08:08	Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	No	BUY	49	55¢	$27	0x591091…
07-15 16:08:02	Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	No	SELL	7	52¢	$4	0xab5a01…
07-15 16:00:10	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 334	No	BUY	13	82¢	$10	0xe27031…
07-15 15:56:53	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 334	No	BUY	56	82¢	$46	0xda77a5…
07-15 15:55:40	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 334	No	BUY	31	82¢	$25	0x68c12a…
07-15 15:43:40	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 334	No	SELL	30	81¢	$24	0x1c811e…
07-15 15:39:58	Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	No	BUY	7	50¢	$4	0x69f477…
07-15 15:39:22	Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	No	SELL	21	51¢	$11	0xbe6976…
07-15 15:27:50	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 334	No	BUY	0	80¢	$0	0x19ce2f…
07-15 15:17:16	Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	No	SELL	29	51¢	$15	0x198112…
07-15 15:17:07	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 334	No	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0x35ebc3…
07-15 15:10:50	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 334	No	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0xdb4e0c…
07-15 15:10:50	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 334	No	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0x5c5ecd…
07-15 15:04:31	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 334	No	SELL	99	81¢	$80	0xc14f3f…
07-15 15:02:56	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 334	No	BUY	99	80¢	$79	0x122f25…
07-15 14:40:04	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 334	No	SELL	99	76¢	$75	0x6b5dc4…
07-15 13:13:23	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 334	No	BUY	99	75¢	$74	0xfcab54…
07-15 12:55:11	Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?	Yes	BUY	50	43¢	$22	0xceeb78…
07-15 12:17:05	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 334	No	SELL	99	75¢	$74	0xf2849a…
07-15 10:28:07	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 334	No	BUY	84	74¢	$62	0x23fd84…
07-15 10:05:38	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 334	No	SELL	3	75¢	$2	0x3b2425…
07-15 10:04:01	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 334	No	SELL	81	75¢	$61	0x1256f9…
07-15 09:43:49	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 334	No	BUY	17	75¢	$13	0xb78a4d…
07-15 09:37:23	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 334	No	SELL	17	76¢	$13	0x0d3c24…
07-15 09:22:19	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 334	No	BUY	22	74¢	$16	0x8d2dcb…
07-15 09:19:53	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 334	No	SELL	22	76¢	$17	0x5b9589…
07-15 09:03:34	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 334	Yes	SELL	100	25¢	$25	0x932808…
07-15 09:03:34	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 334	No	BUY	100	75¢	$75	0x932808…
07-15 09:01:10	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 334	Yes	BUY	100	24¢	$24	0xbe4526…
07-14 16:02:02	Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	No	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0xee2f91…
07-14 15:07:13	Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	No	SELL	10	49¢	$5	0xc8633b…
07-14 14:39:52	Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	No	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x506ba7…
07-14 13:21:20	Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	No	SELL	50	44¢	$22	0x58fb9f…
07-14 08:39:14	Will Nigel Farage get second place in the Clacton by-election?	Yes	BUY	20	7¢	$1	0xf114ba…
07-14 08:39:14	Will Nigel Farage get second place in the Clacton by-election?	No	SELL	20	93¢	$19	0xf114ba…
07-13 16:44:35	Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	No	BUY	50	43¢	$22	0x15bc56…
07-13 16:44:16	Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	Yes	SELL	50	56¢	$28	0x79806e…
07-13 12:47:05	will wti reach 80 in july 2026 791	No	SELL	100	52¢	$52	0x586972…
07-13 12:36:46	will wti reach 80 in july 2026 791	Yes	SELL	100	43¢	$43	0xe69d1f…
07-13 12:21:01	Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	Yes	BUY	30	55¢	$16	0x78d7d0…
07-13 12:21:01	Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	Yes	BUY	20	55¢	$11	0x476ad3…
07-13 11:22:16	will wti reach 80 in july 2026 791	Yes	BUY	100	42¢	$42	0x635da3…
07-13 10:19:11	will wti reach 80 in july 2026 791	No	BUY	100	63¢	$63	0xcc8575…
07-13 10:19:11	will wti reach 80 in july 2026 791	Yes	SELL	100	39¢	$39	0xcc8575…
07-13 09:01:46	will wti reach 80 in july 2026 791	Yes	BUY	100	38¢	$38	0x3ab155…
07-12 15:37:34	Will Shohei Ohtani win the 2026 National League MVP Award?	No	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0xcff9a2…
07-11 22:58:58	will wti reach 80 in july 2026 791	No	SELL	100	60¢	$60	0xf29a13…
07-11 22:58:55	will wti reach 80 in july 2026 791	Yes	SELL	46	38¢	$17	0x6819c6…
07-11 22:58:41	will wti reach 80 in july 2026 791	Yes	SELL	12	38¢	$5	0x8cf1ec…
07-11 22:43:34	will wti reach 80 in july 2026 791	Yes	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x8c6e43…
07-11 22:43:32	will wti reach 80 in july 2026 791	Yes	BUY	4	37¢	$1	0x0b2e28…
07-11 22:43:26	will wti reach 80 in july 2026 791	Yes	BUY	17	37¢	$6	0xf8078a…
07-11 22:43:04	will wti reach 80 in july 2026 791	Yes	BUY	1	37¢	$0	0xce1c30…
07-11 22:43:02	will wti reach 80 in july 2026 791	Yes	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0xcc6c61…
07-11 22:43:02	will wti reach 80 in july 2026 791	Yes	BUY	1	37¢	$0	0x288b4a…
07-11 22:43:02	will wti reach 80 in july 2026 791	Yes	BUY	0	37¢	$0	0x01e4d6…