Brilliant-Spaghetti — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$3

Unrealized P&L

-$2

Hit rate

83.3%

Resolved

425

Trades

2,235

lifetime

Volume

$78.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$35

Open exposure

$292

1 position

First seen

2026-03-31

last 10-29 10:30

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 115 days

Categories

Other

75% 79% +$341

Sports

17% 84% -$139

Crypto

7% 81% -$144

Politics

1% 67% -$14

Tech

0% 0% -$46

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

13 active days in 12wk • peak 39 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes		+295	$294	99¢	$292	-$2	10-29 10:30

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?	17	$1.7K	1,206	606	+600	Yes	-$4	07-15 15:51
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft?	24	$1.4K	937	790	+147	Yes	+$67	06-24 00:08
elon musk of tweets april 13 april 15 0 39	12	$1.3K	1,113	372	+741	No	+$65	04-15 08:02
elon musk of tweets april 18 april 20 90 114	7	$1.2K	600	600	+0	No	+$2	04-20 10:29
Lakers vs. Rockets	19	$1.2K	599	599	+0	Lakers	+$25	05-02 03:58
Lakers vs. Rockets	18	$1.1K	1,073	230	+843	Lakers	-$130	04-25 02:58
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on May 13?	5	$1.1K	874	215	+660	No	+$1	05-13 15:06
elon musk of tweets april 17 april 24 200 219	1	$775	776	0	+776	Yes	+$1	04-24 15:46
Thunder vs. Lakers	24	$763	520	379	+141	Thunder	+$31	05-12 05:10
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026?	14	$724	806	305	+501	No	-$4	06-03 13:41
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	13	$715	671	95	+576	Yes	+$30	06-12 15:59
elon musk of tweets april 7 april 14 280 299	11	$699	788	781	+7	Yes	-$195	04-14 15:40
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026?	12	$661	530	160	+370	Yes	+$19	06-29 15:59
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?	2	$600	601	0	+601	No	+$1	06-02 04:09
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026?	9	$599	300	300	+0	No	+$0	05-06 08:59
highest temperature in chongqing on april 11 2026 22c	2	$598	599	0	+599	No	+$1	04-11 14:55
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?	14	$574	313	313	+0	Yes	+$19	05-18 15:47
mlb stl chc 2026 07 04	21	$558	427	160	+267	St. Louis Cardinals	+$13	07-05 04:13
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?	2	$556	600	0	+600	Yes	+$44	06-14 03:19
nba uta lal 2026 04 12	4	$554	557	0	+557	Lakers	+$3	04-13 02:22
elon musk of tweets april 14 april 21 200 219	7	$554	561	62	+500	No	+$64	04-21 14:18
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026?	5	$551	279	279	+0	No	+$3	04-27 03:14
nba okc lal 2026 04 07	5	$550	558	0	+558	Thunder	+$8	04-08 04:15
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on April 25?	3	$548	275	275	+0	No	+$0	04-25 12:00
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 27 to July 29, 2026?	1	$530	551	0	+551	No	+$21	07-29 07:25
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?	3	$516	271	271	+0	No	+$25	05-18 02:45
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?	18	$515	341	205	+136	Yes	+$2	05-15 14:27
Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in April 2026?	10	$515	358	158	+200	No	+$1	04-30 16:01
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?	8	$511	282	232	+50	No	+$3	05-05 14:36
nba atl nyk 2026 04 20	9	$505	527	170	+358	Hawks	-$134	04-21 02:45

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 10:30:01	Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	295	100¢	$294	0x097502…
10-29 04:58:58	Lakers vs. Clippers	Lakers	BUY	200	100¢	$200	0xaf0603…
10-29 01:55:52	76ers vs. Pacers	76ers	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xd9947e…
10-29 01:55:28	76ers vs. Pacers	76ers	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xf43163…
10-29 01:55:08	76ers vs. Pacers	76ers	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xb6f24f…
10-29 01:53:34	76ers vs. Pacers	76ers	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x57cbba…
10-29 01:52:58	76ers vs. Pacers	76ers	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0x9862c5…
10-28 07:42:10	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	31	95¢	$29	0xb20d36…
10-28 07:41:38	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 26 to October 28, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	13¢	$7	0x567a09…
10-28 06:32:14	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 26 to October 28, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	35¢	$0	0x0e70c9…
10-28 06:32:02	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 26 to October 28, 2026?	Yes	SELL	16	35¢	$6	0x15f184…
10-28 06:31:31	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 26 to October 28, 2026?	Yes	SELL	22	33¢	$7	0xc52444…
10-28 06:31:22	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 26 to October 28, 2026?	Yes	SELL	25	33¢	$8	0x37386b…
10-28 06:18:59	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 26 to October 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	47¢	$6	0x1a96c6…
10-28 06:18:37	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	96¢	$48	0xdbcd2c…
10-28 06:08:05	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 26 to October 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	44¢	$4	0xf3c693…
10-28 06:07:49	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 26 to October 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0x2af98f…
10-28 06:07:11	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 26 to October 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	54¢	$16	0xfd7ff7…
10-28 05:30:07	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 26 to October 28, 2026?	Yes	SELL	19	63¢	$12	0x0584a8…
10-28 05:26:55	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 26 to October 28, 2026?	Yes	SELL	25	61¢	$15	0xe13c29…
10-28 04:01:58	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 26 to October 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	50¢	$50	0x3d57e9…
10-23 00:37:23	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	212	94¢	$199	0x8f514f…
10-23 00:02:57	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	No	BUY	101	100¢	$100	0x908e1d…
10-22 03:36:47	Suns vs. Trail Blazers	Trail Blazers	BUY	247	100¢	$247	0xe39ce6…
10-22 02:57:12	Suns vs. Trail Blazers	Trail Blazers	BUY	53	95¢	$50	0xfb068d…
10-10 07:30:25	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on October 10?	No	BUY	296	100¢	$296	0x24e841…
10-09 14:14:28	Rockets vs. Mavericks	Rockets	BUY	46	100¢	$46	0xa69a0d…
10-09 14:13:09	Rockets vs. Mavericks	Rockets	BUY	150	100¢	$150	0x4fac26…
10-09 14:10:33	Rockets vs. Mavericks	Rockets	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xf7cec5…
09-25 14:03:38	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	Yes	SELL	30	10¢	$3	0x3e176f…
09-25 14:03:20	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	9¢	$1	0x2c85ed…
09-25 14:03:11	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	10¢	$1	0x333a82…
09-25 08:12:54	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	4¢	$0	0xa60e61…
09-25 08:12:14	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	4¢	$0	0x3f78ed…
09-25 08:11:38	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	4¢	$0	0xadf4ca…
09-25 08:11:17	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	4¢	$0	0xb7c3c5…
09-25 08:10:18	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0x4268ab…
09-25 07:39:47	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	Yes	SELL	206	10¢	$20	0xd04eeb…
09-25 07:38:54	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	15¢	$30	0x7441f0…
09-25 07:33:14	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	34¢	$2	0x5d5c71…
09-25 07:32:27	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	33	34¢	$11	0xf35473…
09-25 07:24:08	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	36¢	$3	0x82f677…
09-25 07:24:00	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	35	36¢	$12	0xfa9542…
09-25 07:23:47	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	36¢	$18	0x3749e0…
09-25 07:23:38	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	63	36¢	$23	0x153f50…
09-25 07:23:12	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	35¢	$11	0xd20c06…
09-25 07:17:57	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	Yes	SELL	25	24¢	$6	0xa5cda7…
09-25 07:17:56	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	24¢	$5	0xed9056…
09-25 07:17:26	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	Yes	SELL	19	24¢	$5	0xc2d3f0…
09-25 07:17:26	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	Yes	SELL	42	24¢	$10	0xa8d8b9…
09-25 07:17:06	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	Yes	SELL	81	23¢	$19	0x047425…
09-25 07:14:24	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	Yes	SELL	28	42¢	$12	0xa7bd59…
09-25 07:02:26	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0xe34e4c…
09-25 07:02:05	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	53¢	$5	0x3e1c5f…
09-25 07:00:23	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x3c9790…
09-25 06:59:57	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x6aaff4…
09-25 06:59:51	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x02bba6…
09-25 06:55:05	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x930193…
09-25 06:18:24	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	23	47¢	$11	0x402970…
09-25 05:56:33	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	54	42¢	$23	0xc1da94…
09-25 05:23:48	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	34¢	$7	0x1f9e48…
09-25 05:23:27	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	72	34¢	$24	0xdb2f21…
09-25 05:11:48	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	0	35¢	$0	0x3e73f5…
09-25 04:57:23	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	28	35¢	$10	0x41a5ff…
09-25 04:57:21	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	72	35¢	$25	0x2ce9f4…
09-25 04:02:18	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	37¢	$18	0x867907…
09-25 04:01:59	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	36¢	$4	0x11f560…
09-25 04:01:42	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	18	35¢	$6	0xd28e28…
09-24 08:36:35	Will the highest temperature in Jinan be 26°C or higher on September 24?	Yes	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x2d97bc…
09-24 04:42:29	Will the highest temperature in Jinan be 26°C or higher on September 24?	Yes	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0xd44900…
09-23 09:32:05	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 21 to September 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	169	93¢	$157	0x5b7751…
09-23 07:03:41	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 21 to September 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	87¢	$19	0x38a268…
09-23 07:03:13	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 21 to September 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	87¢	$87	0x3c59ac…
09-23 07:03:05	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 21 to September 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0x78dca3…
09-23 07:03:05	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 21 to September 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	46	86¢	$40	0x418f95…
09-01 02:24:58	Will Elon Musk post 840-879 tweets in August 2026?	Yes	SELL	80	0¢	$0	0x220f4a…
08-31 17:40:10	Will Elon Musk post 840-879 tweets in August 2026?	Yes	BUY	74	34¢	$25	0xd41e52…
08-31 17:40:00	Will Elon Musk post 840-879 tweets in August 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	34¢	$2	0xa35521…
08-19 14:42:13	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 17 to August 19, 2026?	No	SELL	100	10¢	$10	0x31e34d…
08-19 14:39:24	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 17 to August 19, 2026?	No	BUY	100	8¢	$8	0xdb5a9c…
08-14 17:28:16	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-14 17:15 UTC	Up	BUY	11	94¢	$10	0xce29a9…
08-14 04:57:21	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	16¢	$1	0x477cdc…
08-14 04:49:42	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	38¢	$3	0x68e568…
08-01 11:29:21	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 30 to August 1, 2026?	Yes	SELL	106	80¢	$85	0x3057a7…
08-01 06:26:05	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 30 to August 1, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0x48dc95…
08-01 06:10:35	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 30 to August 1, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	63¢	$6	0x2e0c52…
08-01 06:01:20	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 30 to August 1, 2026?	Yes	BUY	91	66¢	$60	0xf9c9e7…
07-29 07:25:44	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 27 to July 29, 2026?	No	BUY	551	96¢	$530	0x43ac64…
07-28 15:33:32	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	194	100¢	$193	0x35ecc5…
07-28 15:31:56	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	375	80¢	$300	0x04f639…
07-22 07:30:21	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?	Yes	SELL	167	4¢	$7	0x23852b…
07-22 07:09:31	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	31¢	$3	0x1d8360…
07-22 07:09:21	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	23	31¢	$7	0x083d9b…
07-22 07:02:43	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?	Yes	SELL	27	18¢	$5	0x52e84a…
07-22 07:02:30	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?	Yes	SELL	54	18¢	$10	0x3e54c7…
07-22 06:34:54	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0xf0f65c…
07-22 06:32:22	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	73¢	$5	0x2a0929…
07-22 06:30:48	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	23	71¢	$16	0xb75f4c…
07-22 06:30:39	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	71¢	$14	0xf35b50…
07-22 06:05:55	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0xc3c31a…