Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$24

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

60.9%

Resolved

148

Trades

166

lifetime

Volume

$215

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

5 positions

First seen

2026-07-22

last 11-06 20:38

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 60 days

Categories

Other

88% 65% +$25

Politics

7% 11% -$10

Tech

4% 83% +$10

Crypto

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

54 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on November 6?	Up	+2	$1	100¢	$2	+$1	11-06 02:46
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 6, 2026?	No	+2	$1	100¢	$2	+$1	11-02 11:25
Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 11, 2026?	No	+2	$1	75¢	$1	+$0	11-05 18:08
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?	Yes	+1	$1	97¢	$1	+$0	11-03 03:26
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 12, 2026?	No	+1	$1	66¢	$1	$0	11-06 12:37

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will trump say worker during tribute to lindsey graham 20260724170556647	1	$2	4	+4	Yes	-$2	07-27 09:17
will trump say hell 3 times during cabinet meeting 20260727172357440	1	$2	3	+3	No	-$2	07-30 22:41
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	1	$2	3	+3	Yes	+$1	07-23 21:03
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026?	1	$2	9	+9	No	-$2	09-10 00:29
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 10 to September 12, 2026?	1	$2	4	+4	Yes	+$2	09-07 22:00
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	1	$2	5	+5	Yes	-$2	08-03 09:33
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026?	1	$2	6	+6	No	-$2	09-08 15:39
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	1	$2	2	+2	No	+$0	09-13 14:38
Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in August?	1	$2	8	+8	Yes	+$6	08-31 13:51
Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be greater than 3.0%?	2	$2	4	+4	Yes	$0	10-28 11:37
laptop airdrop by september 9	1	$2	3	+3	Yes	+$1	09-08 07:36
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 31 to September 2, 2026?	1	$2	2	+2	No	+$0	08-30 09:44
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 Week of September 21 2026?	1	$2	4	+4	Yes	+$2	09-22 17:02
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?	1	$2	3	+3	No	+$1	08-03 17:33
will wti dip to 90 by august 31 2026 from september 3	1	$2	3	+3	Yes	-$2	09-04 00:15
us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	1	$2	8	+8	No	-$2	08-14 16:10
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?	1	$2	3	+3	Yes	-$2	09-17 16:46
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 49.0 and 51.9 in August?	1	$2	4	+4	Yes	+$2	08-21 15:13
Will the July 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%?	1	$2	3	+3	No	+$1	08-05 21:41
will trump say think about it during remarks in new york 20260811183234684	1	$2	3	+3	Yes	-$2	08-12 02:11
will xauusd reach 4450 by august 10 2026	1	$2	3	+3	No	-$2	08-12 10:16
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	1	$2	3	+3	Yes	-$2	08-05 13:39
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $365 Week of September 21 2026?	1	$2	3	+3	No	+$1	09-23 01:02
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?	1	$2	4	+4	No	-$2	09-07 09:58
will googl reach 340 by july 27 2026	1	$2	3	+3	Yes	-$2	07-28 11:36
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	1	$2	9	+9	No	-$2	08-04 17:36
Will fewer than 180 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 10-August 16?	1	$2	4	+4	No	+$2	08-12 18:23
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	1	$2	9	+9	No	-$2	08-03 00:57
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	2	$2	4	+4	Yes	+$1	11-05 02:01
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	2	$2	5	+5	No	-$1	10-01 08:42

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-06 20:38:16	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in October?	No	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x76b858…
11-06 12:37:09	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 12, 2026?	No	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x7b7de2…
11-06 02:46:21	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on November 6?	Up	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x240ce8…
11-05 18:08:00	Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 11, 2026?	No	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0xc26dbb…
11-05 10:07:31	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from November 5 to November 7, 2026?	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x1f7697…
11-05 02:01:48	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0xd62783…
11-04 12:35:40	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0xe13f8b…
11-04 11:47:28	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	No	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0xcea6ad…
11-04 03:36:00	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from November 2 to November 4, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x646431…
11-03 19:28:13	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from November 2 to November 4, 2026?	No	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x3b9b26…
11-03 11:27:43	Will Beyond Meat (BYND) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x1803f2…
11-03 03:26:10	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?	Yes	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x43358e…
11-02 19:25:42	Will the October 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%?	Yes	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0xedb9f5…
11-02 11:25:16	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 6, 2026?	No	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x2f83a2…
11-02 11:25:13	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	Yes	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x6837a4…
11-02 03:25:09	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x53e89d…
11-01 19:23:54	Will Flutter Entertainment (FLUT) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0xf1fcc1…
10-31 18:29:42	Allstate (ALL) Q3 property-liability combined ratio 86% to 88%?	Yes	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x9c5e05…
10-31 05:54:54	CVS Health (CVS) Q3 medical benefit ratio (MBR) 90.5% to 92%?	Yes	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0xe04193…
10-30 21:22:52	Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0xfb00ee…
10-30 13:19:42	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x14021b…
10-30 04:22:54	Will USD be between 2.7M and 2.8M Iranian rials on October 31?	No	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x4d12aa…
10-29 20:09:00	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	Yes	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x85467a…
10-29 11:56:08	Will there be between 30 and 34 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31?	No	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0xcd10c7…
10-29 03:45:46	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x9e16d3…
10-29 03:45:38	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x5b375c…
10-28 19:45:34	Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $168 in October?	No	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x96e5ce…
10-28 11:37:16	Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be greater than 3.0%?	Yes	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x1b251d…
10-28 11:35:05	Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be greater than 3.0%?	No	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x999ea5…
10-28 03:34:36	Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 36M tonnes at end of October 2026?	No	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x061361…
10-27 19:20:14	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x1112be…
10-27 11:20:05	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x2bb686…
10-27 03:09:57	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x0e9999…
10-26 06:33:18	Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0xcc5691…
10-25 22:33:09	Will Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.5%?	No	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x6f7b96…
10-25 14:32:26	Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x2ecb64…
10-25 06:26:38	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0xdc51ef…
10-24 22:24:59	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x0dffc8…
10-24 13:21:26	Will Core PCE YoY be 3.0% in September?	Yes	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x69c0ef…
10-24 05:17:44	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x383869…
10-23 17:53:44	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 24 to October 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x866788…
10-23 09:53:35	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 22 to October 24, 2026?	No	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xbc4783…
10-23 01:52:33	Will Core PCE YoY be 3.1% in September?	Yes	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x3fc1c1…
10-22 17:51:17	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 22 to October 24, 2026?	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x143c4d…
10-22 09:51:03	Will OpenRouter process between 185T and 195T tokens the week of October 19?	No	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0xb24bcc…
10-21 23:31:21	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	No	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0xdb94fc…
10-21 15:25:53	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $405 Week of October 19 2026?	No	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x49d3e8…
10-21 07:25:44	Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?	Yes	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x636247…
10-20 23:25:33	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 19 to October 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0xde41d6…
10-20 15:23:05	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	No	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x277ec1…
10-20 07:20:59	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 20?	Up	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x2cf139…
10-19 23:20:41	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 Week of October 19 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x250533…
10-19 15:20:32	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 25?	Yes	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0xfebf67…
10-19 06:54:35	Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $517.50 Week of October 19 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0xe69ae0…
10-18 22:54:27	United Airlines (UAL) Q3 consolidated passenger load factor 84% to 85%?	Yes	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0xba2f5e…
10-18 14:53:12	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 23?	Yes	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0xc49d1c…
10-18 06:52:14	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 17 to October 19, 2026?	No	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x065bd0…
10-17 22:37:18	United Airlines (UAL) Q3 consolidated passenger load factor 85%+?	Yes	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x6236b1…
10-17 14:36:33	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 17 to October 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x7bf17a…
10-17 05:17:16	Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q3 da Vinci procedure growth 12.5% to 15%?	Yes	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xd50068…
10-16 18:48:32	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x5d4720…
10-16 09:26:43	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	No	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x54f78f…
10-16 01:26:27	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	No	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x972fdc…
10-15 17:11:52	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 15?	Down	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x83ac9d…
10-15 09:09:20	spy up or down on october 15 2026	Down	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x3907f1…
10-15 00:37:25	next fable model 5pt2 released by october 16 2026	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x0c8ec0…
10-14 16:36:58	next fable model 5pt2 released by october 15 2026	No	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x231fde…
10-13 08:24:02	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 12 to October 14, 2026?	No	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0xe4a19f…
10-13 00:22:26	Will annual inflation be 3.6% in September?	No	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0xb20115…
10-12 16:22:09	Will annual inflation be 3.7% in September?	Yes	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0xa15a5d…
10-12 08:21:52	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 16?	Yes	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x09a57e…
10-11 12:02:28	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in September?	No	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x932c09…
10-11 03:51:54	Will PPI YoY be 5.9% or more in September?	No	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x5c8a8b…
10-10 19:30:01	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026?	No	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x50c46f…
10-10 11:16:51	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.4% in September?	No	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0xa78eaa…
10-10 01:40:28	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in September?	Yes	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0xa3e41b…
10-09 17:30:05	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026?	No	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x38a087…
10-09 09:20:33	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xbf821d…
10-09 00:15:39	Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026?	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x1cf75f…
10-08 15:43:12	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in September?	No	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0xccd0b7…
10-08 07:13:55	Will OpenAI have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 5?	Yes	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x1e562e…
10-07 23:13:02	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x9949c8…
10-07 14:38:53	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x20888a…
10-07 04:32:09	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on October 7?	Down	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0xe2a9a6…
10-06 08:28:27	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x1f2a9d…
10-06 00:27:17	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x99dee8…
10-06 00:19:32	Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $1,020 Week of October 5 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x093a18…
10-05 15:44:29	Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $195 Week of October 5 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0x2a173a…
10-05 02:56:25	will rklb dip to 72 by october 5 2026	No	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0xa76a9e…
10-04 18:22:22	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0xd1ef4c…
10-04 10:06:19	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	No	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x2da4ee…
10-03 19:51:05	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x2803a1…
10-03 10:52:42	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	No	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0x3f571b…
10-03 02:36:15	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	No	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x0e7d8f…
10-02 18:16:17	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 3 to October 5, 2026?	No	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x294295…
10-02 09:35:51	Will ISM Services PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in September?	No	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x3f08e1…
10-02 01:34:56	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x24bd1e…
10-01 16:42:23	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0xaa135f…
10-01 08:42:14	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xac7de2…
10-01 08:24:44	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	No	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0xcb984b…