Incredible-Churn — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$27

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

65.5%

Resolved

234

Trades

811

lifetime

Volume

$5.30K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-26

last 10-21 19:39

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 14 days

Categories

Crypto

98% 57% +$29

Other

2% 50% -$2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 19 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	7	$157	170	149	+21	Up	-$30	10-21 19:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	5	$136	97	97	+0	Up	-$4	04-29 23:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	4	$106	56	56	+0	Up	+$4	04-29 22:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	4	$98	57	57	+0	Up	+$2	10-21 19:27
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	2	$82	51	51	+0	Up	+$18	05-03 16:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	6	$81	50	50	+0	Up	+$9	04-29 21:41
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	2	$70	140	140	+0	Up	-$64	10-20 20:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	2	$65	42	42	+0	Down	+$15	05-03 12:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	10	$64	42	42	+0	Up	+$2	04-30 21:40
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	2	$64	40	40	+0	Up	+$6	10-21 19:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	7	$63	76	76	+0	Down	-$7	04-29 22:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	2	$61	44	44	+0	Up	+$11	05-03 16:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	6	$59	47	47	+0	Up	-$1	04-29 23:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	2	$58	38	38	+0	Up	+$18	05-03 16:40
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	7	$56	60	48	+13	Down	-$8	05-29 10:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	9	$55	40	40	+0	Up	+$5	04-26 19:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	6	$55	54	54	+0	Down	+$5	04-29 23:05
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	3	$50	46	31	+14	Down	$0	05-03 14:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	10	$49	68	68	+0	Up	-$1	04-29 21:35
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	7	$49	76	76	+0	Up	+$9	04-29 20:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	2	$49	31	31	+0	Down	+$5	05-03 15:53
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	4	$49	48	48	+0	Down	+$7	04-29 23:17
Counter-Strike: Nice Try vs aimclub (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 6: Closed Qualifier Playoffs	4	$48	34	34	+0	aimclub	-$2	10-20 20:40
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	2	$47	29	29	+0	Down	+$10	10-21 19:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	7	$45	35	35	+0	Down	-$5	04-26 20:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	6	$44	34	34	+0	Up	+$2	05-06 13:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	4	$44	25	25	+0	Up	+$6	04-26 20:35
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	4	$43	29	29	+0	Up	+$3	05-04 20:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	2	$43	30	30	+0	Down	+$11	05-03 15:21
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	7	$43	25	25	+0	Down	+$2	04-27 19:28

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-21 19:39:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Down	BUY	21	76¢	$16	0xe962b2…
10-21 19:38:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Down	SELL	24	67¢	$16	0x5abc83…
10-21 19:38:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Down	BUY	24	70¢	$17	0x91a0b6…
10-21 19:37:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Up	SELL	44	41¢	$18	0x964fbe…
10-21 19:36:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Up	BUY	44	61¢	$27	0x308961…
10-21 19:36:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Up	SELL	81	36¢	$29	0x39f49a…
10-21 19:35:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Up	BUY	81	42¢	$34	0x70db95…
10-21 19:30:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Up	SELL	40	87¢	$35	0x3ac379…
10-21 19:30:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Up	BUY	40	72¢	$29	0xb461ca…
10-21 19:27:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Up	SELL	35	89¢	$31	0x8f7694…
10-21 19:26:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Up	BUY	35	84¢	$29	0x5de486…
10-21 19:25:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Up	SELL	22	87¢	$19	0x04c49a…
10-21 19:25:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Up	BUY	22	85¢	$19	0x8bfcc7…
10-21 19:24:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Down	SELL	29	99¢	$28	0x638606…
10-21 19:23:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Down	BUY	29	66¢	$19	0x8b5a5a…
10-21 19:21:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Up	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x6e6dae…
10-21 19:15:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Up	BUY	20	60¢	$12	0x3b0956…
10-21 19:14:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Up	SELL	12	98¢	$12	0x360532…
10-21 19:14:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Up	BUY	12	80¢	$10	0x6ef5a8…
10-20 21:12:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Up	SELL	3	41¢	$1	0x0761d6…
10-20 21:10:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Up	BUY	3	62¢	$2	0xd9d1bd…
10-20 20:58:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Down	SELL	140	2¢	$3	0x1bf284…
10-20 20:56:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Down	BUY	140	48¢	$67	0xe440da…
10-20 20:48:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Down	BUY	39	51¢	$20	0x962eda…
10-20 20:40:30	Counter-Strike: Nice Try vs aimclub (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 6: Closed Qualifier Playoffs	aimclub	SELL	26	78¢	$20	0x4889e1…
10-20 20:21:02	Counter-Strike: Nice Try vs aimclub (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 6: Closed Qualifier Playoffs	aimclub	BUY	26	78¢	$20	0x1515a0…
10-20 20:19:20	Dota 2: TheBot$ vs Dawn Bulls (BO3) - EPL Masters Group B	Dawn Bulls	SELL	27	74¢	$20	0x929375…
10-20 20:16:02	Dota 2: TheBot$ vs Dawn Bulls (BO3) - EPL Masters Group B	Dawn Bulls	BUY	27	74¢	$20	0x25f0f6…
10-20 20:14:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Down	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xb1351a…
10-20 20:14:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	10	70¢	$7	0xf31d09…
10-20 20:12:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Up	SELL	5	21¢	$1	0x4b23f1…
10-20 20:11:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0x0dbb7f…
10-20 20:11:33	Counter-Strike: Nice Try vs aimclub (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 6: Closed Qualifier Playoffs	Nice Try	SELL	8	40¢	$3	0xdbe5dd…
10-20 19:51:27	Counter-Strike: Nice Try vs aimclub (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 6: Closed Qualifier Playoffs	Nice Try	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0x0cc1c6…
09-27 13:46:11	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-27 13:45 UTC	Up	SELL	6	63¢	$4	0x9e5fc5…
09-27 13:45:51	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-27 13:45 UTC	Up	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0xaf7b67…
05-29 10:09:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Up	BUY	12	24¢	$3	0x54dd76…
05-29 10:08:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Down	SELL	19	17¢	$3	0xb1e6e3…
05-29 10:08:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Down	BUY	19	59¢	$11	0x42feaa…
05-29 10:07:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Up	SELL	11	81¢	$9	0x4c12ca…
05-29 10:06:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Up	BUY	11	80¢	$9	0xb05d1a…
05-29 10:05:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Up	SELL	18	66¢	$12	0x9522b0…
05-29 10:05:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Up	BUY	18	50¢	$9	0x90494d…
05-29 10:03:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Down	SELL	9	95¢	$8	0x2d88b1…
05-29 10:03:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Down	BUY	9	92¢	$8	0xe4d98c…
05-24 19:30:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Down	BUY	18	45¢	$8	0x20a4e7…
05-24 19:25:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Down	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0x19edf1…
05-24 19:24:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Down	BUY	6	88¢	$5	0xd0c0da…
05-24 19:23:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Down	SELL	14	56¢	$8	0x9dce08…
05-24 19:22:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Down	BUY	14	55¢	$8	0xe4078e…
05-07 19:15:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Up	BUY	12	50¢	$6	0x5819fe…
05-07 19:12:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Down	SELL	10	5¢	$0	0x4b223a…
05-07 19:10:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Down	BUY	10	40¢	$4	0x1a09d3…
05-07 19:10:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Up	SELL	7	64¢	$4	0x02a023…
05-07 19:10:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Up	BUY	7	61¢	$4	0xc7e314…
05-06 14:13:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	2	84¢	$1	0x8e027f…
05-06 14:00:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Down	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x2abf23…
05-06 13:59:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Down	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0xa34741…
05-06 13:46:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Up	SELL	16	4¢	$1	0xbdd335…
05-06 13:45:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Up	BUY	16	49¢	$8	0x0228fd…
05-06 13:44:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Up	SELL	9	98¢	$9	0xb6cb3a…
05-06 13:43:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	9	85¢	$8	0xeb46f8…
05-06 13:43:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Up	SELL	15	53¢	$8	0x6cff73…
05-06 13:42:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	15	52¢	$8	0xdc8761…
05-06 13:40:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Up	SELL	9	61¢	$6	0x1bf2d5…
05-06 13:40:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x197273…
05-04 20:30:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET	Up	BUY	29	48¢	$14	0x97c422…
05-04 20:24:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Up	SELL	12	69¢	$8	0xbf15a3…
05-04 20:24:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Up	BUY	12	86¢	$10	0x3e5547…
05-04 20:23:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Up	SELL	18	88¢	$15	0x0aaa9b…
05-04 20:21:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Up	BUY	18	57¢	$10	0x3a8bb4…
05-04 20:19:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Down	SELL	13	80¢	$11	0xa3af75…
05-04 20:15:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Down	BUY	13	53¢	$7	0xf48a01…
05-04 16:00:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Down	BUY	15	52¢	$8	0x3fbe02…
05-04 10:44:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Up	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0x410973…
05-04 10:44:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Down	SELL	15	40¢	$6	0xb3853c…
05-04 10:43:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Down	BUY	15	51¢	$8	0xe48765…
05-04 10:42:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Down	SELL	17	48¢	$8	0xef755f…
05-04 10:40:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Down	BUY	17	45¢	$8	0xcac87e…
05-03 20:20:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Down	BUY	22	45¢	$10	0x199575…
05-03 20:15:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Down	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x65eb32…
05-03 20:14:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	10	79¢	$8	0x1f3deb…
05-03 20:02:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Up	BUY	8	40¢	$3	0x9cad99…
05-03 19:55:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0x15a400…
05-03 19:54:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Down	SELL	18	48¢	$9	0x7abe58…
05-03 19:51:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Down	BUY	18	49¢	$9	0xcb325c…
05-03 16:40:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Up	SELL	38	99¢	$38	0x3a6ae6…
05-03 16:37:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Up	BUY	38	52¢	$20	0xdcb1b2…
05-03 16:30:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Up	SELL	51	99¢	$50	0xc8cd8a…
05-03 16:25:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Up	BUY	51	63¢	$32	0x321633…
05-03 16:23:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Down	SELL	20	22¢	$4	0x4849a3…
05-03 16:23:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Down	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xf249bb…
05-03 16:11:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Down	SELL	18	64¢	$11	0xad37e5…
05-03 16:11:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Down	BUY	18	57¢	$10	0xe98cb0…
05-03 16:06:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Down	SELL	19	77¢	$15	0xe91bd8…
05-03 16:05:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Down	BUY	19	52¢	$10	0x5fd154…
05-03 16:03:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Up	SELL	44	82¢	$36	0x6fe3cb…
05-03 16:02:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Up	BUY	44	56¢	$25	0xd3746f…
05-03 15:58:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Down	SELL	10	48¢	$5	0x25ccb2…
05-03 15:55:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x9f331e…