Critical-Effectiveness — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$9

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

75.9%

Resolved

Trades

709

lifetime

Volume

$4.48K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-26

last 05-16 21:24

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Crypto

95% 86% $-1

Other

5% 0% $-3

Politics

0% 0% $-5

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

10 active days in 12wk • peak 165 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	3	$34	18	18	+0	open	—	04-26 07:00
XRP Up or Down - April 28, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	3	$32	18	18	+0	open	—	04-28 16:16
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET	2	$25	13	13	+0	open	—	04-28 09:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET	2	$25	14	13	+0	open	—	04-27 03:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	2	$25	13	13	+0	open	—	04-27 03:29
Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	2	$25	13	13	+0	open	—	04-27 03:29
XRP Up or Down - April 26, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET	2	$25	13	13	+0	open	—	04-27 02:45
Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET	2	$24	13	13	+0	open	—	04-27 02:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	04-26 03:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET	1	$20	22	0	+22	open	—	04-26 12:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET	1	$20	22	0	+22	open	—	04-26 20:43
XRP Up or Down - April 26, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET	1	$20	22	0	+22	open	—	04-26 23:13
XRP Up or Down - April 26, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET	1	$20	22	0	+22	open	—	04-26 22:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET	1	$20	22	0	+22	open	—	04-26 23:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	1	$20	21	0	+21	open	—	04-26 20:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	1	$20	22	0	+22	open	—	04-26 20:14
Solana Up or Down - April 26, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET	1	$20	22	0	+22	open	—	04-26 16:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET	1	$20	22	0	+22	open	—	04-27 01:13
XRP Up or Down - April 26, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	1	$20	22	0	+22	open	—	04-26 20:14
XRP Up or Down - April 26, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET	1	$20	22	0	+22	open	—	04-26 23:29
Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET	1	$20	22	0	+22	open	—	04-27 00:13
Solana Up or Down - April 26, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET	1	$20	21	0	+21	open	—	04-26 17:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	1	$20	23	0	+23	open	—	04-26 18:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET	1	$20	23	0	+23	open	—	04-26 22:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET	1	$20	23	0	+23	open	—	04-26 21:28
Solana Up or Down - April 26, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET	1	$20	21	0	+21	open	—	04-26 19:43
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 26, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET	1	$20	22	0	+22	open	—	04-26 16:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET	1	$20	22	0	+22	open	—	04-26 17:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET	1	$20	22	0	+22	open	—	04-26 17:28
Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET	1	$20	22	0	+22	open	—	04-26 22:28

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-16 21:24:31	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Up	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0xb79457…
05-16 21:09:07	Solana Up or Down - May 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Down	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x16f768…
05-16 21:04:36	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Up	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x478038…
05-16 20:44:39	Solana Up or Down - May 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x41ac43…
05-16 20:34:13	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Down	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0xe84699…
05-16 20:19:31	Solana Up or Down - May 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Up	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x9a1ada…
05-16 19:58:57	XRP Up or Down - May 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0xd5195c…
05-16 19:44:18	Solana Up or Down - May 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x0c9a20…
05-16 19:34:11	Solana Up or Down - May 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Down	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0xe474ea…
05-16 19:34:04	XRP Up or Down - May 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Down	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x6c1359…
05-16 19:28:25	XRP Up or Down - May 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET	Up	BUY	7	94¢	$7	0x0266e5…
05-16 19:19:34	Solana Up or Down - May 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Up	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x48f26f…
05-16 19:04:45	Solana Up or Down - May 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Up	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x96e79f…
05-16 19:04:26	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Up	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x6b87d1…
05-16 18:59:08	Solana Up or Down - May 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x7a66ba…
05-16 18:49:18	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0xd922bd…
05-16 18:29:05	XRP Up or Down - May 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x37f2b6…
05-16 18:14:06	doge updown 5m 1778955000	Up	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x0c7581…
05-16 18:13:04	Solana Up or Down - May 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET	Down	BUY	8	92¢	$7	0x2e5299…
05-16 18:09:10	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Down	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0xa1418e…
05-16 18:04:30	BNB Up or Down - May 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Up	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x494305…
05-16 17:59:04	XRP Up or Down - May 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0xc2c7b6…
05-16 17:58:05	Solana Up or Down - May 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET	Down	BUY	7	93¢	$7	0x4f8f1e…
05-16 17:49:04	XRP Up or Down - May 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Up	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x56b40b…
05-16 17:44:50	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0xc19b97…
05-16 17:43:04	Solana Up or Down - May 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET	Up	BUY	7	93¢	$7	0x660653…
05-16 17:39:04	XRP Up or Down - May 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Down	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0xabf197…
05-16 17:34:34	XRP Up or Down - May 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x680a02…
05-16 17:34:06	Solana Up or Down - May 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0xb3ec56…
05-16 17:29:51	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Up	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0xb2ae77…
05-16 17:29:05	Solana Up or Down - May 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x76f987…
05-16 17:14:23	XRP Up or Down - May 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET	Down	BUY	7	93¢	$7	0x17bdbb…
05-16 17:14:04	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x969dc0…
05-16 17:13:03	Solana Up or Down - May 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET	Up	BUY	7	94¢	$7	0x31d2ed…
05-16 17:09:31	Solana Up or Down - May 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Up	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x19e215…
05-16 17:09:03	XRP Up or Down - May 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Down	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x857694…
05-16 16:54:32	Solana Up or Down - May 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Down	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x1f3d05…
05-16 16:43:11	Solana Up or Down - May 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET	Down	BUY	8	92¢	$7	0xc08867…
05-16 16:39:15	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x2bc859…
05-16 16:34:38	XRP Up or Down - May 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Down	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0xb205c4…
05-16 16:24:40	Solana Up or Down - May 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Down	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x7ad121…
05-16 15:59:08	Solana Up or Down - May 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x74033d…
05-16 15:58:04	Solana Up or Down - May 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	7	94¢	$7	0x5f3d8f…
05-16 15:44:12	Solana Up or Down - May 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x4b3214…
05-16 15:19:04	XRP Up or Down - May 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Up	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x811ff4…
05-16 14:59:24	Solana Up or Down - May 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET	Down	BUY	7	93¢	$7	0x5b49d3…
05-16 14:49:24	XRP Up or Down - May 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Up	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0xbb1386…
05-16 14:44:11	XRP Up or Down - May 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	8	92¢	$7	0xb7a548…
05-16 14:39:40	Solana Up or Down - May 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0xf97dbe…
05-16 14:39:22	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Up	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x021cfc…
05-16 14:29:41	Solana Up or Down - May 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0xdcfd0f…
05-16 14:29:04	Solana Up or Down - May 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	Up	BUY	7	94¢	$7	0xcd4340…
05-16 14:24:12	XRP Up or Down - May 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Up	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x88e113…
05-16 14:19:06	XRP Up or Down - May 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Down	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x980ccd…
05-16 14:14:29	XRP Up or Down - May 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x34eafd…
05-16 13:59:28	Solana Up or Down - May 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0xd91a55…
05-16 13:49:17	Solana Up or Down - May 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Down	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x4852a0…
05-16 13:44:06	Solana Up or Down - May 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0xe98c53…
05-16 13:19:32	Solana Up or Down - May 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Up	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x56a1db…
05-16 13:19:10	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Up	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x1f6fa4…
05-16 13:13:09	Solana Up or Down - May 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Down	BUY	7	94¢	$7	0x7d8d69…
05-08 19:24:33	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	7	73¢	$5	0x5940de…
05-07 17:26:51	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	2	78¢	$2	0x8bae13…
05-07 16:14:56	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	Down	SELL	3	26¢	$1	0x506878…
05-07 16:14:54	Solana Up or Down - May 7, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	Up	BUY	3	95¢	$3	0x947787…
05-07 16:14:47	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	Down	BUY	3	89¢	$3	0xa5cc20…
05-07 14:59:51	XRP Up or Down - May 7, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET	Down	BUY	3	89¢	$3	0x74b8f3…
05-07 14:59:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	3	91¢	$3	0x03a3b9…
05-07 11:59:41	Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	3	91¢	$3	0xabb7ef…
05-07 11:59:36	BNB Up or Down - May 7, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	3	86¢	$3	0xbba13b…
05-07 11:29:46	Solana Up or Down - May 7, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET	Down	BUY	3	95¢	$3	0x118a77…
05-07 10:14:34	XRP Up or Down - May 7, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET	Up	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0x335da0…
05-06 21:59:34	Solana Up or Down - May 6, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x7814dd…
05-06 20:29:46	Solana Up or Down - May 6, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Down	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0xd8b843…
05-06 20:14:34	XRP Up or Down - May 6, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0xc1cfd0…
05-06 19:59:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0x650b00…
05-06 19:14:57	Solana Up or Down - May 6, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET	Up	SELL	5	31¢	$2	0x1192eb…
05-06 19:14:35	Solana Up or Down - May 6, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x77fbea…
05-06 18:59:54	Solana Up or Down - May 6, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x6162b6…
05-06 18:59:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0xe486ec…
05-06 18:29:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET	Up	SELL	5	33¢	$2	0xeb5182…
05-06 18:29:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x99882b…
05-06 18:14:44	Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET	Down	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0x37ab57…
05-06 17:44:39	Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET	Down	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0xd38957…
05-06 17:44:38	Solana Up or Down - May 6, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET	Down	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0x2e6094…
05-06 16:59:34	Solana Up or Down - May 6, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET	Down	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0x61022e…
05-06 16:59:34	XRP Up or Down - May 6, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x160bc5…
05-06 15:59:34	Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xc1a353…
05-01 20:41:06	XRP Up or Down - May 1, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET	Down	SELL	2	97¢	$2	0xa600d8…
05-01 20:41:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET	Down	SELL	2	98¢	$2	0x214489…
05-01 20:40:44	Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET	Down	SELL	2	98¢	$2	0x9ea766…
05-01 20:40:44	XRP Up or Down - May 1, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET	Down	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0x13ba8b…
05-01 20:40:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET	Down	BUY	2	93¢	$2	0x1c6c9c…
05-01 20:39:18	Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET	Down	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0x5d3153…
05-01 20:29:46	Solana Up or Down - May 1, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Down	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x5342f3…
05-01 20:29:28	XRP Up or Down - May 1, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Down	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x30752d…
05-01 20:29:14	Solana Up or Down - May 1, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Down	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x292401…
05-01 20:28:08	XRP Up or Down - May 1, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Down	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0xe4f52e…
05-01 20:28:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Down	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x99e09c…
05-01 20:27:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Down	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x67f9b3…