Critical-Effectiveness — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$143

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

85.2%

Resolved

656

Trades

847

lifetime

Volume

$4.91K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-26

last 07-14 21:12

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 14 days

Categories

Crypto

93% 85% -$94

Other

7% 63% -$44

Tech

0% — —

Politics

0% 50% -$5

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-07-14).

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026?	2	$58	70	70	+0	No	-$37	05-06 14:25
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	3	$34	18	18	+0	Down	+$2	04-26 07:00
XRP Up or Down - April 28, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	3	$32	18	18	+0	Down	+$3	04-28 16:16
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET	2	$25	13	13	+0	Down	+$1	04-28 09:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET	2	$25	14	13	+0	Down	+$1	04-27 03:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	2	$25	13	13	+0	Up	+$1	04-27 03:29
Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	2	$25	13	13	+0	Up	+$1	04-27 03:29
XRP Up or Down - April 26, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET	2	$25	13	13	+0	Down	+$1	04-27 02:45
Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET	2	$24	13	13	+0	Down	+$0	04-27 02:44
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026?	2	$21	12	12	+0	Yes	+$2	05-06 15:56
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	2	$20	10	10	+0	Down	+$0	04-26 03:55
XRP Up or Down - April 26, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET	1	$20	22	0	+22	Up	+$2	04-26 23:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET	1	$20	22	0	+22	Up	+$2	04-26 20:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET	1	$20	22	0	+22	Down	+$2	04-26 12:29
XRP Up or Down - April 26, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET	1	$20	22	0	+22	Up	+$2	04-26 22:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET	1	$20	22	0	+22	Up	+$2	04-26 23:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	1	$20	22	0	+22	Down	+$2	04-26 20:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	1	$20	21	0	+21	Up	+$2	04-26 20:28
Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET	1	$20	22	0	+22	Down	+$2	04-27 00:13
XRP Up or Down - April 26, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	1	$20	22	0	+22	Down	+$2	04-26 20:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET	1	$20	22	0	+22	Down	+$2	04-27 01:13
Solana Up or Down - April 26, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET	1	$20	22	0	+22	Down	+$2	04-26 16:58
XRP Up or Down - April 26, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET	1	$20	22	0	+22	Down	+$2	04-26 23:29
Solana Up or Down - April 26, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET	1	$20	21	0	+21	Up	+$1	04-26 17:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	1	$20	23	0	+23	Up	+$3	04-26 18:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET	1	$20	23	0	+23	Down	-$20	04-26 22:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET	1	$20	23	0	+23	Down	-$20	04-26 21:28
Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET	1	$20	21	0	+21	Down	+$1	04-26 21:29
Solana Up or Down - April 26, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET	1	$20	21	0	+21	Up	+$1	04-26 19:43
BNB Up or Down - April 26, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET	1	$20	22	0	+22	Up	+$2	04-26 17:58

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-14 21:12:47	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 21:00 UTC	Down	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0xfca348…
07-14 20:57:04	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 20:45 UTC	Down	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x3c46f6…
07-14 20:44:17	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 20:30 UTC	Down	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xc2d4f3…
07-14 20:44:04	HYPE Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 20:30 UTC	Up	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xc36eea…
07-14 20:28:32	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC	Up	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0x8c0b15…
07-14 20:27:44	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC	Down	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0x98e573…
07-14 20:13:34	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 20:00 UTC	Down	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x171ef3…
07-14 19:59:19	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 19:45 UTC	Up	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0xcfc81e…
07-14 19:59:11	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 19:45 UTC	Down	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x475dcc…
07-14 19:43:01	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 19:30 UTC	Down	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x69ed02…
07-14 19:42:29	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 19:30 UTC	Up	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0xbb14f4…
07-14 19:28:35	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 19:15 UTC	Up	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x16c81e…
07-14 19:12:34	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 19:00 UTC	Up	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x3a1d9d…
07-14 18:57:55	HYPE Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 18:45 UTC	Up	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x8467af…
07-14 18:42:04	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 18:30 UTC	Up	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x3d76f7…
07-14 18:27:28	BNB Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 18:15 UTC	Up	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0xf3eb68…
07-14 17:42:29	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 17:30 UTC	Down	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0xd237ea…
07-14 17:42:23	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 17:30 UTC	Down	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x41a1d0…
07-14 17:42:22	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 17:30 UTC	Down	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x710611…
07-14 16:13:26	Ethereum Up or Down - July 14, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	Down	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x345314…
07-14 16:12:59	Solana Up or Down - July 14, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	Up	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x76a85b…
07-14 16:12:34	Solana Up or Down - July 14, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	Up	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xaee6c7…
07-14 15:58:38	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 15:45 UTC	Down	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0xaf2411…
07-14 15:42:58	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 15:30 UTC	Down	SELL	2	58¢	$1	0x18e8d2…
07-14 15:42:50	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 15:30 UTC	Down	SELL	2	73¢	$2	0x4d4804…
07-14 15:42:43	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 15:30 UTC	Down	BUY	2	80¢	$2	0x5721ba…
07-14 15:42:35	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 15:30 UTC	Down	BUY	2	81¢	$2	0xc7b6c7…
07-14 15:42:14	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 15:30 UTC	Down	BUY	2	80¢	$2	0xf5105d…
07-14 15:28:47	HYPE Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 15:15 UTC	Up	BUY	3	71¢	$2	0x07be56…
07-14 15:28:37	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 15:15 UTC	Up	BUY	3	79¢	$2	0x8b4b5d…
07-14 15:27:49	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 15:15 UTC	Down	SELL	2	62¢	$2	0xd08cee…
07-14 15:27:32	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 15:15 UTC	Down	BUY	2	80¢	$2	0x3e6134…
07-14 15:27:08	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 15:15 UTC	Up	BUY	3	79¢	$2	0x5fb4c3…
07-14 15:13:02	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 15:00 UTC	Down	BUY	3	79¢	$2	0x7d8ece…
07-14 15:12:20	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 15:00 UTC	Down	BUY	2	80¢	$2	0x2f452b…
07-14 14:58:14	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 14:45 UTC	Up	BUY	2	91¢	$2	0xba164c…
07-14 14:58:10	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 14:45 UTC	Up	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0xb472f7…
07-14 14:43:31	HYPE Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 14:30 UTC	Up	BUY	3	91¢	$3	0x51e082…
07-14 14:42:25	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 14:30 UTC	Up	BUY	3	90¢	$3	0xbc5888…
07-14 14:28:05	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 14:15 UTC	Down	BUY	3	91¢	$3	0x9ab9f8…
07-14 14:27:34	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 14:15 UTC	Down	BUY	3	91¢	$3	0xe089c5…
07-14 14:12:10	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 14:00 UTC	Down	BUY	3	90¢	$3	0xb0f372…
07-14 13:58:10	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 13:45 UTC	Up	BUY	3	90¢	$3	0xab7c1a…
07-14 13:42:50	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 13:30 UTC	Down	BUY	3	91¢	$3	0x1bffdf…
07-14 13:42:32	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 13:30 UTC	Down	BUY	3	90¢	$3	0x5aef28…
07-14 13:13:41	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 13:00 UTC	Down	BUY	3	90¢	$3	0xe4a963…
07-14 13:12:44	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 13:00 UTC	Down	BUY	3	91¢	$3	0x16d853…
07-14 12:12:44	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 12:00 UTC	Down	BUY	3	90¢	$3	0x2a581b…
07-14 11:59:13	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 11:45 UTC	Down	BUY	3	91¢	$3	0xd061b7…
07-14 11:57:41	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 11:45 UTC	Down	BUY	3	90¢	$3	0x2b3194…
07-14 11:44:49	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 11:30 UTC	Down	BUY	3	90¢	$3	0x75e779…
07-14 11:27:13	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 11:15 UTC	Up	BUY	3	91¢	$3	0xc2319d…
07-14 11:14:58	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 11:00 UTC	Down	BUY	3	91¢	$3	0xf06f56…
07-14 11:12:41	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 11:00 UTC	Down	BUY	3	91¢	$3	0x844e84…
07-14 10:59:14	HYPE Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 10:45 UTC	Up	BUY	3	91¢	$3	0x97a375…
07-14 10:58:19	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 10:45 UTC	Up	BUY	3	87¢	$3	0xa02363…
07-14 10:28:05	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 10:15 UTC	Down	BUY	3	89¢	$3	0x85b89a…
07-14 09:58:02	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 09:45 UTC	Up	BUY	3	89¢	$3	0x06fd46…
07-14 09:44:35	DOGE Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 09:30 UTC	Down	BUY	3	91¢	$3	0x837229…
07-14 09:29:46	Ethereum Up or Down - July 14, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET	Down	BUY	3	91¢	$3	0xa457bb…
07-14 09:29:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET	Down	BUY	3	90¢	$3	0xb56d53…
07-14 09:13:20	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 09:00 UTC	Down	BUY	3	90¢	$3	0xf25c0f…
07-14 08:13:32	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 08:00 UTC	Down	BUY	3	89¢	$3	0xc303fd…
07-14 08:13:23	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 08:00 UTC	Up	BUY	3	86¢	$3	0x9b17f7…
07-14 08:12:52	BNB Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 08:00 UTC	Down	BUY	3	91¢	$3	0x5613fc…
07-14 08:00:02	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 07:45 UTC	Down	BUY	3	91¢	$3	0x9f4990…
07-14 07:59:01	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 07:45 UTC	Up	BUY	3	90¢	$3	0x930844…
07-14 07:14:19	BNB Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 07:00 UTC	Down	BUY	3	89¢	$3	0xbc59c1…
07-14 07:12:41	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 07:00 UTC	Down	BUY	3	88¢	$3	0x57027d…
07-14 07:12:11	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 07:00 UTC	Down	BUY	3	91¢	$3	0x9fd9ff…
07-14 06:44:58	BNB Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 06:30 UTC	Up	BUY	3	91¢	$3	0xa6cb1e…
07-14 06:44:47	BNB Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 06:30 UTC	Down	BUY	4	79¢	$3	0xb7dbcf…
07-14 06:44:19	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 06:30 UTC	Down	BUY	3	88¢	$3	0x67e68a…
07-14 06:42:55	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 06:30 UTC	Down	BUY	3	91¢	$3	0xe4df5d…
07-14 06:28:26	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 06:15 UTC	Down	BUY	3	88¢	$3	0x5d97af…
07-14 05:44:19	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 05:30 UTC	Down	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0x60c1ea…
07-14 05:28:23	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 05:15 UTC	Up	BUY	3	89¢	$3	0x53e9d0…
07-14 05:28:11	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 05:15 UTC	Up	BUY	3	90¢	$3	0x761c1d…
07-14 05:27:11	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 05:15 UTC	Up	BUY	3	90¢	$3	0x8a69e8…
07-14 05:13:32	BNB Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 05:00 UTC	Down	BUY	3	90¢	$3	0x79e7b5…
07-14 04:58:41	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 04:45 UTC	Down	BUY	3	89¢	$3	0xb4a973…
07-14 04:58:08	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 04:45 UTC	Down	BUY	3	91¢	$3	0x8bfe24…
07-14 04:44:44	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 04:30 UTC	Up	BUY	3	91¢	$3	0xda318f…
07-14 04:44:44	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 04:30 UTC	Up	BUY	3	91¢	$3	0xa8adb1…
07-14 04:43:53	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 04:30 UTC	Down	BUY	3	90¢	$3	0x8c8cc7…
07-14 04:27:50	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 04:15 UTC	Up	BUY	3	91¢	$3	0x079bb1…
07-14 04:14:29	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 04:00 UTC	Down	BUY	3	88¢	$3	0x7d9bb0…
07-14 04:13:19	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 04:00 UTC	Down	BUY	3	90¢	$3	0x0aef61…
07-14 03:57:25	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 03:45 UTC	Up	BUY	3	91¢	$3	0x407156…
07-14 03:43:20	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 03:30 UTC	Down	BUY	3	91¢	$3	0x94f3d7…
07-14 03:42:16	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 03:30 UTC	Up	BUY	3	89¢	$3	0x847946…
07-14 03:28:34	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 03:15 UTC	Up	BUY	3	91¢	$3	0x8a483f…
07-14 03:27:05	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 03:15 UTC	Up	BUY	3	90¢	$3	0xe16af7…
07-14 03:27:05	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 03:15 UTC	Up	BUY	3	90¢	$3	0xcace56…
07-14 02:13:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET	Down	BUY	3	89¢	$3	0x169c50…
07-14 02:13:17	Ethereum Up or Down - July 13, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET	Down	BUY	3	90¢	$3	0x363334…
07-14 02:12:22	XRP Up or Down - July 13, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET	Up	BUY	3	91¢	$3	0x8bc51b…
07-14 01:58:40	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 01:45 UTC	Up	BUY	3	91¢	$3	0xf9d0ad…
07-14 01:57:59	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 01:45 UTC	Up	BUY	3	90¢	$3	0xa6fc47…
07-14 01:57:26	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 01:45 UTC	Up	BUY	3	90¢	$3	0xc2d9af…