Judicious-Conversation — Polymarket

Realized P&L (7d)

-$19

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

68.4%

Resolved (7d)

Trades (7d)

161

7,973 lifetime

Volume (7d)

$259

$65.4K lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-12

last 11-09 16:06

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 127 days

Categories

Crypto

74% 27% -$3,786

Other

25% 42% +$283

Politics

1% 17% -$64

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

26 active days in 12wk • peak 414 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will bitcoin dip to 60k in march 2026	142	$7.5K	35,662	36,102	-439	No	+$293	03-30 00:41
will crude oil cl hit high 130 by end of march 366 294	84	$6.1K	16,090	16,090	+0	No	+$182	03-28 07:37
will crude oil cl hit high 120 by end of march 766 813 597	65	$3.5K	12,110	12,110	+0	No	+$71	03-29 16:02
crint bgd pak 2026 03 15	21	$2.6K	5,974	5,774	+200	Bangladesh	-$8	03-15 16:45
will bitcoin dip to 55k in march 2026	147	$1.5K	30,165	25,987	+4,178	No	-$223	03-31 22:56
bitcoin up or down on march 31 2026	52	$1.4K	4,471	4,358	+112	Down	+$31	03-31 15:36
will crude oil cl hit high 105 by end of march 881	5	$1.3K	909	909	+0	No	+$1	03-31 16:39
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	12	$1.1K	5,060	4,965	+95	No	+$156	04-24 15:10
bitcoin up or down on april 1 2026	51	$1.1K	4,432	4,427	+5	Up	-$18	04-01 12:49
SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-29 21:50 UTC	12	$699	595	300	+295	Up	-$99	03-29 21:56
solana up or down march 30 2026 2am et	44	$621	1,633	1,148	+485	Down	-$34	03-30 06:53
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-12 14:15 UTC	59	$466	750	350	+400	Up	-$129	06-12 14:27
bitcoin up or down on march 30 2026	23	$451	11,395	1,986	+9,409	Up	-$237	03-30 15:09
bitcoin up or down march 1 8pm et	18	$444	320	320	+0	Up	+$23	03-02 01:58
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-09 08:15 UTC	41	$382	500	245	+255	Up	-$26	06-09 08:20
SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-30 02:00 UTC	10	$375	200	199	+1	Up	+$24	03-30 02:06
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-12 13:45 UTC	23	$356	300	300	+0	Up	+$14	06-12 13:58
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	3	$338	200	200	+0	Yes	+$62	06-11 22:16
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-29 16:15 UTC	7	$328	300	200	+100	Up	+$71	03-29 16:19
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-29 10:05 UTC	2	$322	200	200	+0	Down	+$74	03-29 10:11
SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-29 20:30 UTC	11	$317	200	200	+0	Down	+$78	03-29 20:36
SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-29 20:45 UTC	26	$314	431	131	+300	Down	-$83	03-29 20:49
bitcoin up or down on april 2 2026	35	$292	6,000	0	+6,000	Down	-$292	04-02 09:12
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	3	$287	500	500	+0	No	-$7	03-18 16:07
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET	17	$285	300	211	+89	Up	-$13	06-12 17:45
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-12 12:30 UTC	10	$282	200	200	+0	Down	+$20	06-12 12:42
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April?	2	$278	1,500	1,405	+95	No	-$82	04-05 05:40
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-12 17:45 UTC	27	$278	400	300	+100	Up	+$24	06-12 17:59
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	3	$278	200	200	+0	Yes	-$2	06-10 23:25
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-19 18:25 UTC	55	$262	2,082	100	+1,982	Up	-$206	08-19 18:29

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-09 16:06:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Up	SELL	11	24¢	$3	0x4b401b…
11-09 16:05:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Up	BUY	11	10¢	$1	0x98e4ed…
11-09 16:02:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Up	SELL	97	24¢	$23	0xcc2771…
11-09 16:02:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Up	BUY	3	14¢	$0	0xa95c95…
11-09 16:02:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Up	BUY	63	14¢	$9	0x506c73…
11-09 16:02:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Up	BUY	31	14¢	$4	0xaf64d3…
11-09 15:58:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Down	BUY	10	13¢	$1	0xec1b61…
11-09 15:58:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Down	BUY	1	20¢	$0	0xb6cf9c…
11-09 15:58:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Down	BUY	6	20¢	$1	0xa29857…
11-09 15:58:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Down	BUY	43	20¢	$9	0xbd5864…
11-09 15:54:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Down	SELL	10	28¢	$3	0xe51eb6…
11-09 15:53:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Down	BUY	10	8¢	$1	0xc8b1f4…
11-09 15:53:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Down	SELL	12	31¢	$4	0xe46fa3…
11-09 15:53:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Down	SELL	4	31¢	$1	0xaa12ce…
11-09 15:53:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Down	SELL	4	31¢	$1	0x941467…
11-09 15:52:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Down	BUY	20	18¢	$4	0xadea9f…
11-09 15:48:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Down	BUY	1	10¢	$0	0xde7551…
11-09 15:48:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Down	BUY	5	10¢	$1	0xcc3227…
11-09 15:48:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Down	BUY	21	10¢	$2	0xae6f7c…
11-09 15:48:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Down	BUY	2	10¢	$0	0x452683…
11-09 15:41:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	3	8¢	$0	0xffad38…
11-09 15:41:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	8¢	$0	0xd526e5…
11-09 15:41:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	41	8¢	$3	0xcf09de…
11-09 15:41:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	6	8¢	$0	0xc4dee0…
11-09 15:41:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	10	8¢	$1	0xaf3208…
11-09 15:41:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	18	8¢	$1	0xae7c78…
11-09 15:41:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x719891…
11-09 15:41:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	8¢	$0	0x34cbcc…
11-09 15:41:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	0	8¢	$0	0x2043f1…
11-09 15:41:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	0	8¢	$0	0x1f6215…
11-09 15:38:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Down	SELL	9	28¢	$2	0xdf5489…
11-09 15:38:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Down	SELL	3	28¢	$1	0xa0c3d5…
11-09 15:38:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Down	SELL	9	28¢	$2	0x2c5345…
11-09 15:38:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Down	BUY	1	8¢	$0	0xf7309c…
11-09 15:38:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Down	BUY	9	8¢	$1	0x0af18b…
11-09 15:36:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Down	BUY	10	37¢	$4	0x8ed426…
11-09 15:32:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Down	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0x3e3a05…
11-09 15:28:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Down	SELL	10	38¢	$4	0x9d104d…
11-09 15:27:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	10	15¢	$2	0x20e141…
11-09 15:24:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	SELL	6	29¢	$2	0x6a39c9…
11-09 15:24:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	SELL	4	29¢	$1	0x07da53…
11-09 15:23:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	BUY	10	9¢	$1	0xc217a4…
11-09 15:23:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	SELL	0	36¢	$0	0x27fe20…
11-09 15:23:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	SELL	5	36¢	$2	0xc13a64…
11-09 15:23:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	SELL	5	36¢	$2	0xf7a466…
11-09 15:22:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	BUY	10	14¢	$1	0xcacf7d…
11-09 15:11:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x4f92b3…
11-09 15:09:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	BUY	10	12¢	$1	0x119451…
11-09 14:56:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Up	SELL	10	42¢	$4	0xa6dcf4…
11-09 14:55:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Up	BUY	10	21¢	$2	0x697451…
11-09 14:54:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Down	BUY	10	14¢	$1	0x286cf7…
11-09 14:47:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Down	BUY	2	13¢	$0	0xf32366…
11-09 14:47:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Down	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0xaf2cb9…
11-09 08:52:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	10¢	$0	0x3633b9…
11-09 08:52:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Down	BUY	1	10¢	$0	0x0a3652…
11-09 08:52:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Down	BUY	15	10¢	$1	0x58a03b…
11-09 08:17:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Down	BUY	2	11¢	$0	0xf3359b…
11-09 08:17:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Down	BUY	6	11¢	$1	0x7553d8…
11-09 08:17:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Down	BUY	2	11¢	$0	0x253ad7…
11-09 08:08:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Down	BUY	11	6¢	$1	0xca940d…
11-09 06:33:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	Up	SELL	20	12¢	$2	0xdccad3…
11-09 06:32:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	Up	BUY	5	8¢	$0	0xfdfbf3…
11-09 06:32:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	Up	BUY	5	8¢	$0	0x85fa01…
11-09 06:32:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	Up	BUY	10	15¢	$2	0x97e1c8…
11-09 06:27:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Up	SELL	5	32¢	$2	0x8f2012…
11-09 06:27:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Up	SELL	5	32¢	$2	0x727b09…
11-09 06:27:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Up	BUY	7	22¢	$2	0x1715f1…
11-09 06:27:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Up	BUY	3	22¢	$1	0x208405…
11-09 06:24:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	Down	SELL	11	10¢	$1	0x760159…
11-09 06:23:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	Down	BUY	11	6¢	$1	0x9785fc…
11-09 05:41:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	Down	SELL	10	30¢	$3	0x2297ca…
11-09 05:40:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	Down	BUY	10	21¢	$2	0x52352d…
11-09 05:38:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	Up	BUY	5	10¢	$0	0xbd689c…
11-09 05:38:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	Up	BUY	0	10¢	$0	0xd2aff8…
11-09 05:38:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	Up	BUY	5	10¢	$0	0x62258e…
11-09 05:28:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	Up	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xc5b192…
11-09 04:18:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Up	BUY	10	8¢	$1	0x95342e…
11-09 03:21:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	Up	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x7a8cf0…
11-09 03:19:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Up	SELL	0	95¢	$0	0xa9d1ad…
11-09 03:19:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Up	SELL	3	95¢	$3	0x72bb8a…
11-09 03:19:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Up	SELL	7	95¢	$7	0x01bb01…
11-09 03:19:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Up	BUY	10	60¢	$6	0xa37e30…
11-09 01:57:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	0	5¢	$0	0xf0c4fd…
11-09 01:57:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	11	5¢	$1	0x94a27a…
11-09 01:53:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Down	SELL	1	19¢	$0	0x5c5e71…
11-09 01:53:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Down	SELL	9	19¢	$2	0x012862…
11-09 01:51:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Down	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x95a4c2…
11-09 01:51:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Down	BUY	2	12¢	$0	0xdd4952…
11-09 01:49:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Down	BUY	10	14¢	$1	0x4813c4…
11-09 01:48:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Up	SELL	10	22¢	$2	0x073210…
11-09 01:47:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Up	BUY	0	10¢	$0	0xdb6c6d…
11-09 01:47:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Up	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x7cb87c…
11-09 01:38:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Up	SELL	10	32¢	$3	0xd304cd…
11-09 01:37:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Up	BUY	10	12¢	$1	0x455431…
11-09 01:33:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Down	BUY	1	10¢	$0	0xdd7486…
11-09 01:33:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Down	BUY	3	10¢	$0	0x62d9b7…
11-09 01:33:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Down	BUY	6	10¢	$1	0x1eee4d…
11-09 01:28:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	Down	SELL	4	95¢	$3	0xf3ac94…
11-09 01:28:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	Down	SELL	6	95¢	$6	0xb3ed33…
11-09 01:28:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	Down	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0x79108f…