Failing-Timeline — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$2.02K

Unrealized P&L

+$7

Hit rate

79.2%

Resolved

527

Trades

2,253

lifetime

Volume

$67.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$30

Open exposure

$480

6 positions

First seen

2026-01-03

last 10-27 19:19

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 105 days

Categories

Sports

73% 71% +$2,539

Other

26% 61% -$466

Politics

0% 0% -$50

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

47 active days in 12wk • peak 49 trades/day

Open positions (6) Resolved markets (15) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	Yes	+374	$201	66¢	$247	+$46	09-20 15:21
Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	No	+120	$100	78¢	$93	-$7	08-19 06:17
Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Yes	+667	$100	12¢	$83	-$17	09-17 22:18
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Championship?	No	+250	$50	14¢	$34	-$16	09-18 14:24
Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win the 2026 MLS Cup?	Yes	+135	$20	14¢	$19	-$1	08-17 20:01
Will Inter Milan win the 2026-27 Serie A Championship?	Yes	+5	$2	64¢	$3	+$1	09-02 05:05

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Moises Caicedo be named to the 2026 PFA Premier League Team of the Year?	15	$3.0K	3,164	0	+3,164	No	+$156	08-19 15:20
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	11	$1.2K	3,395	2,444	+952	Yes	+$768	07-11 13:16
Will Bayer Leverkusen finish first in UEL league phase?	5	$1.0K	632	632	+0	open	—	10-10 16:36
Will Bruno Fernandes win the Bronze Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	3	$901	452	452	+0	No	+$1	07-18 17:59
Will Juventus qualify for the 2027-28 UEFA Europa League?	7	$877	808	590	+218	open	—	10-10 08:51
Will Kylian Mbappe be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer?	6	$836	527	527	+0	Yes	+$211	05-13 15:36
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	6	$811	435	435	+0	open	—	09-18 14:15
Will Ayyoub Bouaddi win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	12	$795	400	400	+0	No	+$5	07-18 15:25
English Premier League: Bruno Fernandes breaks assists record?	45	$740	1,565	0	+1,565	Yes	-$693	05-24 15:19
Will Inter Miami CF win the 2026 MLS Cup?	8	$654	413	413	+0	open	—	09-15 11:34
Will Sweden win 2026-27 Nations League Group B4?	12	$644	616	599	+17	open	—	10-13 22:01
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	9	$630	322	322	+0	Yes	+$2	06-12 17:05
Will Arda Güler win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	4	$613	307	307	+0	No	+$1	07-18 15:23
Will Crystal Palace win the 2026-27 UEFA Europa League Championship?	6	$607	333	333	+0	open	—	09-18 14:14
Will Antoine Semenyo win the 2026-27 English Premier League Player of the Season award?	4	$605	327	327	+0	open	—	10-10 08:52
Will Milan win the 2026-27 UEFA Europa League Championship?	7	$604	350	350	+0	open	—	10-10 16:42
Will Rodrigues win 2026 MLS Defender of the Year?	6	$576	303	303	+0	open	—	10-17 13:51
Will América win the 2026 Liga MX Apertura?	7	$570	348	348	+0	open	—	10-09 16:37
will kylian mbappe score 10 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup	16	$517	527	325	+202	Yes	+$271	07-15 15:43
will michael olise score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	26	$506	2,934	316	+2,618	No	+$109	07-18 17:48
world cup will argentina play portugal 20260623182251496	12	$457	348	348	+0	No	+$19	06-27 16:36
Will Arsenal reach the 2027 UEFA Champions League semifinal?	3	$448	511	511	+0	open	—	09-15 11:32
Will Brighton & Hove Albion qualify for the 2027-28 UEFA Conference League?	4	$446	263	263	+0	open	—	09-25 12:01
Will Bruno Fernandes (Man Utd) record the most assists in the 2026-27 Premier League season?	6	$443	486	167	+318	open	—	10-17 07:44
Will Jackson Ragen win 2026 MLS Defender of the Year?	5	$440	304	152	+152	open	—	10-17 07:45
Will Lautaro Martínez (Inter) be the top goalscorer of the 2026-27 Serie A season?	4	$420	547	0	+547	open	—	10-10 16:37
will erling haaland score 10 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup	8	$420	565	0	+565	No	+$45	07-11 23:07
will sweden qualify for the 2026 fifa world cup	37	$409	939	0	+939	Yes	+$120	03-14 12:18
will ukraine qualify for the 2026 fifa world cup	31	$405	664	0	+664	No	+$198	03-02 23:22
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	5	$402	224	224	+0	No	+$2	06-12 17:06

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 19:19:12	Will Benfica finish first in UEL league phase?	Yes	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x324fff…
10-17 14:13:12	Will Robert Voloder win 2026 MLS Defender of the Year?	No	SELL	106	99¢	$106	0x23b631…
10-17 13:51:30	Will Rodrigues win 2026 MLS Defender of the Year?	No	SELL	194	97¢	$188	0xef0a90…
10-17 07:45:39	Will Rodrigues win 2026 MLS Defender of the Year?	No	SELL	109	99¢	$108	0xf6c3e7…
10-17 07:45:26	Will Jackson Ragen win 2026 MLS Defender of the Year?	No	SELL	152	98¢	$150	0xf3c443…
10-17 07:44:26	Will Bruno Fernandes (Man Utd) record the most assists in the 2026-27 Premier League season?	No	SELL	90	86¢	$77	0xc19bdf…
10-16 18:05:42	Will Celta Vigo win the 2026-27 UEFA Europa League Championship?	No	SELL	48	96¢	$46	0xce5526…
10-16 18:05:35	Will Bournemouth qualify for the 2027-28 UEFA Champions League?	No	SELL	55	93¢	$51	0x84da52…
10-16 18:03:56	Will Liverpool qualify for the 2027-28 UEFA Champions League?	Yes	SELL	80	72¢	$58	0xd29cd4…
10-16 18:03:44	Will Juventus qualify for the 2027-28 UEFA Champions League?	No	SELL	180	36¢	$65	0x171400…
10-16 18:03:06	Will Raphinha (Barcelona) be the top goalscorer of the 2026-27 La Liga season?	Yes	SELL	144	49¢	$71	0x98864c…
10-16 18:01:47	Will Son Heung-min win 2026 MLS Most Valuable Player?	No	SELL	13	99¢	$13	0x3a570a…
10-16 18:00:50	Will TSG Hoffenheim qualify for the 2027-28 UEFA Champions League?	No	SELL	80	91¢	$73	0xbc8109…
10-16 18:00:41	Will Hugo Lloris win 2026 MLS Goalkeeper of the Year?	No	SELL	85	89¢	$75	0x814143…
10-16 18:00:14	Will AC Milan qualify for the 2027-28 UEFA Europa League?	No	SELL	140	67¢	$94	0xdfbcc1…
10-15 15:30:08	Will Norway win the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League?	No	SELL	21	98¢	$21	0xeeebef…
10-15 15:29:32	Will Borussia Dortmund qualify for the 2027-28 UEFA Europa League?	No	SELL	47	94¢	$45	0xa74c53…
10-13 22:01:37	Will Germany win 2026-27 Nations League Group A2?	Yes	SELL	60	19¢	$11	0x161f4d…
10-13 22:01:25	Will Sweden win 2026-27 Nations League Group B4?	No	SELL	40	28¢	$11	0x111a77…
10-13 21:59:49	Will Bournemouth win the 2026-27 UEFA Europa League Championship?	No	SELL	73	90¢	$66	0xf1a3a7…
10-13 21:56:45	Will Fenerbahçe finish top 8 in UCL league phase?	No	BUY	11	87¢	$10	0x75080e…
10-13 21:56:28	Will Inter Milan finish top 8 in UCL league phase?	No	BUY	20	80¢	$16	0x3517a5…
10-13 21:56:18	Will Inter Milan finish top 8 in UCL league phase?	No	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0x4a03e1…
10-13 21:53:39	Will Aston Villa reach the 2027 UEFA Champions League quarterfinal?	No	BUY	110	70¢	$77	0xf9957f…
10-13 21:52:24	Will Roma reach the 2027 UEFA Champions League Round of 16?	Yes	BUY	20	22¢	$4	0x6118ac…
10-13 21:50:51	Will Arsenal finish as runner-up in the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League?	No	SELL	62	89¢	$55	0xd66d35…
10-11 19:39:21	Will Morgan Rogers (Chelsea) record the most assists in the 2026-27 Premier League season?	No	BUY	26	90¢	$24	0x465074…
10-11 11:19:44	Will Jonathan Bond win 2026 MLS Goalkeeper of the Year?	No	BUY	41	90¢	$37	0x450c94…
10-10 20:23:34	Will Kylian Mbappé score the most goals in the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League?	No	SELL	105	82¢	$86	0x5b96f2…
10-10 20:22:51	Will Martin Satriano win the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Player of the Season award?	No	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x2250b5…
10-10 20:22:34	Will Martin Satriano win the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Player of the Season award?	No	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0x9cd727…
10-10 20:22:24	Will Martin Satriano win the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Player of the Season award?	No	BUY	21	94¢	$20	0x21b720…
10-10 16:49:42	Will Barcelona score the most goals in the UCL league phase?	No	SELL	172	57¢	$98	0x8a56da…
10-10 16:42:31	Will Milan win the 2026-27 UEFA Europa League Championship?	No	SELL	350	87¢	$304	0x993dab…
10-10 16:37:30	Will Lautaro Martínez (Inter) be the top goalscorer of the 2026-27 Serie A season?	No	BUY	20	67¢	$13	0x35b51b…
10-10 16:36:55	Will Bayer Leverkusen finish first in UEL league phase?	No	SELL	632	85¢	$537	0x025098…
10-10 16:36:28	Will Bruno Fernandes (Man Utd) record the most assists in the 2026-27 Premier League season?	No	SELL	78	69¢	$53	0x0350f2…
10-10 16:34:27	Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia win the most Player of the Match awards in the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League?	No	SELL	54	95¢	$52	0x2ec80d…
10-10 16:27:33	Will Kylian Mbappé (Real Madrid) be the top goalscorer of the 2026-27 La Liga season?	No	SELL	227	53¢	$120	0xeea846…
10-10 08:52:51	Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	34	0¢	$0	0x831f47…
10-10 08:52:45	Will Switzerland win 2026-27 Nations League Group B1?	No	SELL	20	2¢	$0	0x122fa5…
10-10 08:52:10	Will Antoine Semenyo win the 2026-27 English Premier League Player of the Season award?	No	SELL	327	93¢	$305	0xce8c05…
10-10 08:51:52	Will Juventus qualify for the 2027-28 UEFA Europa League?	No	SELL	590	74¢	$434	0x4a3ced…
10-09 16:39:26	Will Ousmane Dembélé (PSG) be the top goalscorer of the 2026-27 Ligue 1 season?	No	SELL	40	85¢	$34	0x938005…
10-09 16:37:52	Will Martin Satriano win the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Player of the Season award?	No	BUY	80	85¢	$68	0xda4890…
10-09 16:37:34	Will América win the 2026 Liga MX Apertura?	No	SELL	348	82¢	$286	0xc13d3a…
10-09 16:35:23	Will Fulham qualify for the 2027-28 UEFA Champions League?	No	SELL	40	97¢	$39	0x6f0a48…
10-08 18:30:53	Will Declan Rice finish in the top 10 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x4e527f…
10-08 18:28:35	Will Joaquín Panichelli win the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Player of the Season award?	No	BUY	24	84¢	$20	0xe083b2…
10-08 18:28:11	Will Breel Embolo win the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Player of the Season award?	No	BUY	60	84¢	$50	0x905d34…
10-08 18:28:00	Will Amine Gouiri win the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Player of the Season award?	No	BUY	115	84¢	$96	0x5c4c0c…
10-08 03:33:37	Will Manchester City be deducted Premier League points by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	122	82¢	$100	0x901d6b…
10-02 20:43:32	Will Poland win 2026-27 Nations League Group B4?	Yes	BUY	16	12¢	$2	0x3a9f41…
10-02 20:43:23	Will Poland win 2026-27 Nations League Group B4?	Yes	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0xd60026…
10-02 20:43:09	Will Sweden win 2026-27 Nations League Group B4?	Yes	BUY	17	59¢	$10	0x280cec…
09-28 18:14:05	Will Belgium win 2026-27 Nations League Group A1?	Yes	BUY	48	21¢	$10	0x729498…
09-28 18:13:56	Will Belgium win 2026-27 Nations League Group A1?	Yes	BUY	48	21¢	$10	0xc018db…
09-28 00:25:50	Will Georgia win 2026-27 Nations League Group B2?	Yes	BUY	29	3¢	$1	0x259dcd…
09-28 00:23:59	Will Denmark win 2026-27 Nations League Group A4?	Yes	BUY	112	4¢	$5	0xfc4477…
09-28 00:23:17	Will Portugal win 2026-27 Nations League Group A4?	No	BUY	87	23¢	$20	0x99628f…
09-25 15:54:44	Will Norway win the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League?	No	BUY	21	90¢	$19	0xac71c2…
09-25 12:01:56	Will Brighton & Hove Albion qualify for the 2027-28 UEFA Conference League?	No	SELL	140	89¢	$125	0xe761d8…
09-25 11:47:03	Will Georgia win 2026-27 Nations League Group B2?	Yes	BUY	138	16¢	$22	0x6031d8…
09-24 18:10:38	Will Sweden win 2026-27 Nations League Group B4?	No	BUY	20	53¢	$11	0x0ab9c1…
09-24 18:08:21	Will Sweden win 2026-27 Nations League Group B4?	No	BUY	20	53¢	$11	0xbf16ec…
09-24 18:08:21	Will Sweden win 2026-27 Nations League Group B4?	No	SELL	559	51¢	$285	0x49dc46…
09-24 18:03:47	Will Sweden win 2026-27 Nations League Group B4?	No	BUY	64	55¢	$35	0x08feea…
09-24 18:03:36	Will Sweden win 2026-27 Nations League Group B4?	No	BUY	41	54¢	$22	0x177b1e…
09-24 16:20:56	Will Sweden win 2026-27 Nations League Group B4?	No	BUY	40	54¢	$22	0xf2484a…
09-24 11:06:12	Will Sweden win 2026-27 Nations League Group B4?	No	BUY	46	56¢	$26	0xf28d46…
09-24 11:04:29	Will Hungary win 2026-27 Nations League Group B2?	Yes	BUY	20	45¢	$9	0xf93f52…
09-23 18:16:22	Will Switzerland win 2026-27 Nations League Group B1?	No	BUY	20	33¢	$7	0xff6549…
09-23 18:15:49	Will Germany win 2026-27 Nations League Group A2?	Yes	BUY	40	57¢	$23	0xed511a…
09-23 18:15:23	Will Hungary win 2026-27 Nations League Group B2?	Yes	BUY	22	46¢	$10	0x91a0b8…
09-23 18:13:49	Will Germany win 2026-27 Nations League Group A2?	Yes	BUY	20	55¢	$11	0x6a31b5…
09-23 18:13:13	Will Sweden win 2026-27 Nations League Group B4?	No	BUY	20	57¢	$11	0x488404…
09-23 18:11:52	Will Portugal win 2026-27 Nations League Group A4?	No	BUY	20	43¢	$9	0xf4ae93…
09-23 18:11:16	Will Sweden win 2026-27 Nations League Group B4?	No	BUY	172	58¢	$100	0x86594e…
09-23 18:10:05	Will Sweden win 2026-27 Nations League Group B4?	No	BUY	176	57¢	$100	0x8578c2…
09-23 18:09:11	Will Erling Haaland be the top scorer of the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League?	No	BUY	19	84¢	$16	0x394136…
09-23 18:09:07	Will Erling Haaland be the top scorer of the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League?	No	BUY	12	84¢	$10	0xa4832f…
09-23 18:07:46	Will Portugal win 2026-27 Nations League Group A4?	No	BUY	116	43¢	$50	0x48c35b…
09-23 18:07:26	Will Portugal win 2026-27 Nations League Group A4?	No	BUY	233	43¢	$100	0xfd21c8…
09-23 09:13:43	Will Tottenham Hotspur be relegated from the 2026-27 Premier League?	No	BUY	14	83¢	$12	0x7553ce…
09-23 09:13:29	Will Tottenham Hotspur be relegated from the 2026-27 Premier League?	No	BUY	21	82¢	$17	0xdc4d57…
09-23 09:13:14	Will Tottenham Hotspur be relegated from the 2026-27 Premier League?	No	BUY	125	82¢	$103	0x835bff…
09-21 13:19:00	Will AC Milan qualify for the 2027-28 UEFA Europa League?	No	BUY	80	62¢	$50	0xe06551…
09-21 08:21:47	Will Raphinha (Barcelona) be the top goalscorer of the 2026-27 La Liga season?	Yes	BUY	114	44¢	$50	0x6bf617…
09-20 15:21:24	Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	Yes	BUY	96	47¢	$45	0x204cc8…
09-18 20:59:31	Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	Yes	BUY	88	56¢	$49	0x161145…
09-18 20:59:18	Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	Yes	BUY	115	56¢	$65	0xe8cf70…
09-18 20:58:55	Will Juventus qualify for the 2027-28 UEFA Europa League?	No	BUY	82	61¢	$50	0xbf4b61…
09-18 20:58:37	Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-09-18?	No	SELL	167	100¢	$166	0x33dc3e…
09-18 16:24:22	Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	Yes	BUY	73	56¢	$41	0x944ccc…
09-18 16:24:03	Spread: Liverpool FC (-1.5)	AFC Bournemouth	BUY	65	77¢	$50	0x8a327c…
09-18 16:23:55	Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5)	Sunderland AFC	BUY	100	50¢	$50	0xf461fb…
09-18 16:23:37	Spread: Newcastle United FC (-1.5)	Hull City AFC	BUY	155	65¢	$100	0x58a33c…
09-18 16:22:42	Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-09-19?	No	BUY	94	53¢	$50	0x8bac95…
09-18 14:35:16	Will Bayer Leverkusen reach the 2027 UEFA Europa League semifinal?	No	BUY	8	36¢	$3	0x220a4d…
09-18 14:34:01	Will Lyon qualify for the 2027-28 UEFA Europa League?	No	BUY	33	63¢	$21	0x424b5a…