Realized P&L
+$231
Unrealized P&L
-$31
Hit rate
55.5%
Resolved
19,460
Trades
140,609
lifetime
Volume
$2.86M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$20
Open exposure
$950
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-06
last 10-29 10:00
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 220 days
Categories
Other
61% 53% +$12,185
Sports
29% 52% -$14,865
Politics
9% 51% +$2,631
Crypto
0% 54% +$272
Tech
0% 100% +$11
Pop-Culture
0% 0% -$4
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
17 active days in 12wk • peak 1139 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will there be no Hormuz agreement? Yes +141 $133 94¢ $133 $0 10-17 06:42
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? Yes +242 $93 52¢ $125 +$32 10-28 17:09
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? No +114 $103 88¢ $100 -$3 10-23 07:31
Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election? No +129 $89 74¢ $95 +$6 10-26 23:55
Guangzhou Open: Anna Bondar vs Kaitlin Quevedo Kaitlin Quevedo — +116 $64 74¢ $86 +$23 10-29 11:01
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? No +98 $76 80¢ $78 +$1 10-15 21:16
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day? Yes +266 $51 25¢ $66 +$15 10-25 22:05
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +93 $50 56¢ $51 +$1 10-29 09:12
France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026? No +38 $35 92¢ $35 +$0 10-26 20:01
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes +29 $28 98¢ $28 +$0 10-28 17:13
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? Yes +26 $18 74¢ $19 +$1 10-27 14:04
France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026? No +18 $16 100¢ $18 +$2 10-25 12:46
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026? No +19 $14 86¢ $16 +$2 10-26 18:02
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? No +61 $16 26¢ $16 $0 10-26 16:15
Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? Yes +21 $16 72¢ $15 -$1 10-28 09:20
Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.00T? Yes +50 $13 29¢ $14 +$1 10-20 17:19
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? Yes +14 $25 97¢ $13 -$12 10-27 07:08
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election? Yes +19 $11 68¢ $13 +$2 10-20 07:02
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026? No +12 $11 97¢ $11 +$1 10-21 14:43
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.5T and $2.75T at market close on IPO day? Yes +190 $8 2¢ $4 -$4 10-26 13:52
Will there be no Hormuz agreement? No +59 $5 6¢ $4 -$2 10-26 19:59
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2027? Yes +4 $2 54¢ $2 $0 10-23 17:48
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027? Yes +6 $2 36¢ $2 $0 10-23 07:19
Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026? No +26 $7 7¢ $2 -$5 10-15 21:11
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? Yes +2 -$4 86¢ $1 +$6 10-21 22:40
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? No +131 $99 1¢ $1 -$97 10-27 16:09
Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election? Yes +2 -$1 26¢ $1 +$2 10-27 12:50
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms? No +1 $1 6¢ $0 -$1 10-24 15:56
NATO x Russia military clash by November 15, 2026? No +0 -$1 96¢ $0 +$1 10-23 17:34
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes +0 $0 68¢ $0 $0 10-23 20:06