Well-Documented-Blog — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$779

Unrealized P&L

-$7

Hit rate

45.6%

Resolved

180

Trades

656

lifetime

Volume

$26.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$40

Open exposure

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-17

last 09-24 12:09

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 96 days

Categories

Other

45% 14% -$918

Politics

34% 23% +$66

Tech

16% 27% -$5

Crypto

3% 57% +$40

Sports

2% 50% +$38

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

11 active days in 12wk • peak 59 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (26) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will OpenAI announce a phone in 2026?	Yes		+43	$12	7¢	$3	-$9	05-03 14:05
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Yes		+0	-$2	6¢	$0	+$2	05-29 08:18

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	22	$2.2K	1,129	1,129	+0	Yes	+$0	04-16 07:17
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	27	$1.7K	900	900	+0	Yes	+$0	04-27 11:09
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	6	$1.4K	700	700	+0	No	+$0	04-16 06:31
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	2	$1.1K	1,000	1,000	+0	No	+$0	04-27 09:52
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	9	$1.1K	980	980	+0	Yes	+$0	04-27 10:24
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	2	$1.1K	600	600	+0	No	+$0	04-09 05:33
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	4	$980	500	500	+0	Yes	-$1	04-02 08:26
Ben Pasternak jailed?	3	$946	500	500	+0	open	—	04-28 16:16
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	4	$928	500	500	+0	open	—	05-19 10:16
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	2	$920	500	500	+0	No	$0	04-28 14:06
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 7th 659	8	$775	400	400	+0	No	+$0	04-02 08:45
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	2	$645	500	500	+0	Yes	-$5	04-28 12:54
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	2	$625	500	500	+0	Yes	-$5	04-28 13:13
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	2	$410	670	0	+670	No	-$410	06-25 14:14
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	2	$386	200	200	+0	No	+$0	05-07 06:10
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	2	$338	200	200	+0	Yes	-$2	04-06 06:50
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	1	$322	488	0	+488	Yes	+$166	06-23 13:08
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	6	$316	205	205	+0	open	—	06-04 12:33
Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04?	1	$302	560	0	+560	Yes	+$258	07-04 07:06
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	1	$294	700	0	+700	Yes	-$294	06-17 19:32
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	1	$293	610	0	+610	No	-$293	06-27 07:26
Will Colombia win on 2026-07-07?	1	$258	600	0	+600	No	-$258	07-07 16:26
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	10	$250	1,100	1,100	+0	No	+$0	05-18 14:18
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30?	1	$238	540	0	+540	Yes	+$302	06-30 06:13
will bitcoin reach 85000 by december 31 2026 from june 8	2	$221	357	357	+0	Yes	+$57	08-20 14:59
will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	7	$208	104	104	+0	No	+$0	03-30 05:52
Will Firecracker die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	2	$207	105	105	+0	Yes	$0	05-07 11:31
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 1 Group Stage	14	$204	293	293	+0	GenOne	-$16	05-09 12:32
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	2	$198	100	100	+0	No	$0	04-06 07:47
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	7	$194	100	100	+0	open	—	05-21 11:40

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-24 12:09:57	Will MrBeast's next video get between 61.25 and 62.5 million views on day 5?	Yes	SELL	20	6¢	$1	0x47d052…
09-24 12:09:49	Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 61.25 million views on day 5?	No	SELL	20	7¢	$1	0xe4af8e…
09-24 12:09:39	Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 35 and 40 million views in week 1?	Yes	SELL	10	20¢	$2	0x8da1c2…
09-24 12:06:34	Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 35 and 40 million views in week 1?	Yes	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0x2c4c5a…
09-24 12:05:06	Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 61.25 million views on day 5?	No	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x313bdc…
09-24 11:56:54	will trump say ballroom during xi jinpings state arrival	No	SELL	100	73¢	$73	0x8f5ca1…
09-24 11:54:43	will trump say ballroom during xi jinpings state arrival	No	BUY	100	75¢	$75	0xe49ba8…
09-24 11:37:00	Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 61.25 million views on day 5?	No	SELL	20	10¢	$2	0xc72924…
09-24 11:30:33	Will MrBeast's next video get between 61.25 and 62.5 million views on day 5?	Yes	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0xef4f37…
09-24 11:30:33	Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 61.25 million views on day 5?	No	BUY	20	11¢	$2	0x63ca7c…
09-24 11:26:08	Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival?	Yes	SELL	100	25¢	$25	0x9f0c87…
09-24 11:25:38	Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival?	Yes	BUY	100	27¢	$27	0x46bac4…
09-24 11:22:09	Will MrBeast's next video get between 64 and 65 million views on day 6?	Yes	SELL	5	26¢	$1	0x043b30…
09-24 11:13:02	US x China tariff agreement by September 30?	No	SELL	50	18¢	$9	0xd5bd22…
09-24 11:12:33	US x China tariff agreement by September 30?	No	BUY	50	19¢	$10	0x974d55…
09-24 11:11:06	Will MrBeast's next video get between 64 and 65 million views on day 6?	Yes	SELL	15	39¢	$6	0x3db997…
09-24 11:09:39	Will MrBeast's next video get between 64 and 65 million views on day 6?	Yes	BUY	20	45¢	$9	0x030ae9…
09-24 11:08:36	Will Trump say "Trump" during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival?	Yes	SELL	50	23¢	$11	0x79a214…
09-24 11:08:05	Will Trump say "Trump" during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival?	Yes	BUY	14	23¢	$3	0x8680ef…
09-24 11:08:00	Will Trump say "Trump" during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival?	Yes	BUY	13	23¢	$3	0x40140a…
09-24 11:07:59	Will Trump say "Trump" during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival?	Yes	BUY	6	23¢	$1	0xf6e315…
09-24 11:07:59	Will Trump say "Trump" during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival?	Yes	BUY	13	23¢	$3	0x73d8be…
09-24 11:07:59	Will Trump say "Trump" during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival?	Yes	BUY	1	23¢	$0	0x5f1b46…
09-24 11:07:59	Will Trump say "Trump" during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival?	Yes	BUY	2	23¢	$1	0x036bd6…
09-24 11:06:57	Will Trump say "Trump" during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival?	No	SELL	50	76¢	$38	0xe7c0a8…
09-24 11:06:18	Will Trump say "Trump" during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival?	No	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x5d9ed9…
09-24 11:06:17	Will Trump say "Trump" during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival?	No	BUY	49	77¢	$38	0xc99605…
09-23 12:37:14	Republican Senate odds dip to 30% by October 31?	Yes	SELL	20	58¢	$12	0xc22b07…
09-23 08:27:17	will the next muse spark 1pt4 debut at a score of at least 1500 by june 30 2027	Yes	SELL	20	40¢	$8	0xac481a…
09-23 07:42:34	us x iran diplomatic meeting by march 31 2027 20260922	No	SELL	20	29¢	$6	0xd02c5d…
09-23 07:41:17	republican house odds dip to 8 by october 31	No	SELL	20	13¢	$3	0xe909ed…
09-23 07:38:19	will the next muse spark 1pt4 debut at a score of at least 1500 by june 30 2027	Yes	BUY	20	40¢	$8	0xb33d93…
09-23 07:36:56	will sense and sensibility score at least 65 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer 20261019	Yes	SELL	20	93¢	$19	0x27b6fc…
09-23 07:36:14	JD Vance Republican nomination odds leader on October 31?	No	SELL	20	8¢	$2	0x611afb…
09-23 07:36:14	will sense and sensibility score at least 65 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer 20261019	Yes	BUY	20	93¢	$19	0x23d1c9…
09-23 07:30:37	republican senate odds dip to 30 by october 31	Yes	BUY	20	66¢	$13	0x7b7f04…
09-23 07:21:37	will sense and sensibility score at least 85 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer 20261019	No	SELL	20	91¢	$18	0x32af01…
09-23 07:21:01	will sense and sensibility score at least 85 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer 20261019	No	BUY	20	91¢	$18	0x6d7db4…
09-23 07:09:08	republican senate odds dip to 30 by october 31	Yes	SELL	20	55¢	$11	0x1ff980…
09-23 07:08:49	us x iran diplomatic meeting by march 31 2027 20260922	No	BUY	1	32¢	$0	0xe2064f…
09-23 07:08:49	us x iran diplomatic meeting by march 31 2027 20260922	No	BUY	1	32¢	$0	0x22afc3…
09-23 07:08:49	us x iran diplomatic meeting by march 31 2027 20260922	No	BUY	17	32¢	$6	0x06f8f6…
09-23 07:08:38	republican senate odds dip to 30 by october 31	Yes	BUY	20	56¢	$11	0xf12c9f…
09-23 07:03:49	us x iran diplomatic meeting by march 31 2027 20260922	No	SELL	3	32¢	$1	0x82ff34…
09-23 07:03:01	us x iran diplomatic meeting by march 31 2027 20260922	No	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x121305…
09-23 06:56:52	nothing ever happens september 27	Something	SELL	40	2¢	$1	0x73219f…
09-23 06:56:19	nothing ever happens september 27	Something	BUY	20	4¢	$1	0xb0c582…
09-23 06:51:50	JD Vance Republican nomination odds leader on October 31?	No	BUY	20	11¢	$2	0x64db0c…
09-23 06:48:47	Jon Ossoff Democratic nomination odds leader on October 31?	No	SELL	15	50¢	$8	0x0aeb18…
09-23 06:48:32	Jon Ossoff Democratic nomination odds leader on October 31?	No	BUY	15	50¢	$8	0xf04388…
09-23 06:48:32	Jon Ossoff Democratic nomination odds leader on October 31?	No	SELL	15	50¢	$8	0x2e8fe5…
09-23 06:47:47	will sense and sensibility score at least 85 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer 20261019	No	SELL	18	91¢	$16	0x20b3d9…
09-23 06:46:59	will sense and sensibility score at least 85 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer 20261019	No	BUY	18	91¢	$16	0x7b7157…
09-23 06:41:55	Jon Ossoff Democratic nomination odds leader on October 31?	No	BUY	15	54¢	$8	0x9f6bd0…
09-23 06:41:49	republican senate odds dip to 30 by october 31	No	SELL	20	39¢	$8	0x838c93…
09-23 06:38:23	republican senate odds dip to 30 by october 31	No	BUY	20	40¢	$8	0xc4ca68…
09-23 06:06:56	will ukraine target moscow on september 24 2026	No	SELL	20	74¢	$15	0x5dce0b…
09-23 05:54:22	us x iran diplomatic meeting by december 31 2026 20260922	No	SELL	20	14¢	$3	0x87bc24…
09-23 05:35:55	will trump say ai during xi jinpings state arrival	Yes	SELL	24	38¢	$9	0x36edba…
09-23 05:34:49	will trump say ai during xi jinpings state arrival	Yes	BUY	24	43¢	$10	0x671ad1…
09-23 05:29:53	Will A'ja Wilson win the 2026 WNBA MVP award?	No	SELL	20	11¢	$2	0xeab49d…
09-23 05:27:49	will trump say bitcoin during xi jinpings state arrival	Yes	SELL	100	5¢	$5	0x027f60…
09-23 05:23:19	will trump say bitcoin during xi jinpings state arrival	Yes	BUY	50	9¢	$4	0xa4a7bb…
09-23 05:19:11	us x iran diplomatic meeting by december 31 2026 20260922	No	BUY	20	14¢	$3	0x784ad9…
09-23 05:17:32	Will A'ja Wilson win the 2026 WNBA MVP award?	No	SELL	20	7¢	$1	0x4b5786…
09-23 05:16:59	Will A'ja Wilson win the 2026 WNBA MVP award?	No	BUY	20	7¢	$1	0xdd0b8d…
09-23 05:10:28	will trump say bitcoin during xi jinpings state arrival	Yes	SELL	50	10¢	$5	0x48c29a…
09-23 05:10:05	will trump say bitcoin during xi jinpings state arrival	Yes	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0x731862…
09-23 05:09:20	will sense and sensibility score at least 85 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer 20261019	Yes	SELL	20	8¢	$2	0x21089d…
09-23 05:09:16	will trump say bitcoin during xi jinpings state arrival	Yes	BUY	50	12¢	$6	0x529387…
09-23 05:07:40	republican house odds dip to 8 by october 31	No	BUY	20	23¢	$5	0xb10e4f…
09-23 05:03:34	will trump say bitcoin during xi jinpings state arrival	Yes	SELL	50	12¢	$6	0x00d016…
09-23 05:02:40	will trump say bitcoin during xi jinpings state arrival	Yes	BUY	50	12¢	$6	0x0a9734…
09-23 05:01:59	will iran target the united arab emirates by october 31 2026	Yes	SELL	19	15¢	$3	0xd216de…
09-23 05:01:14	will iran target the united arab emirates by october 31 2026	Yes	BUY	19	16¢	$3	0x31700a…
09-23 04:58:38	Will A'ja Wilson win the 2026 WNBA MVP award?	No	SELL	15	8¢	$1	0x7d7c27…
09-23 04:58:29	Will A'ja Wilson win the 2026 WNBA MVP award?	No	SELL	5	8¢	$0	0x100434…
09-23 04:57:52	Will A'ja Wilson win the 2026 WNBA MVP award?	No	BUY	20	8¢	$2	0x830eec…
09-23 04:57:34	nothing ever happens september 27	Something	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x45fd26…
09-23 04:56:20	will the next muse spark 1pt4 debut at a score of at least 1490 by june 30 2027	Yes	SELL	5	65¢	$3	0x79dd55…
09-23 04:55:41	will the next muse spark 1pt4 debut at a score of at least 1490 by june 30 2027	Yes	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0x84c2dc…
09-23 04:55:31	will ukraine target moscow on september 24 2026	No	BUY	20	75¢	$15	0x54663d…
09-23 04:52:34	Will A'ja Wilson win the 2026 WNBA MVP award?	No	BUY	20	9¢	$2	0x42bce7…
09-23 04:40:28	Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1?	Yes	SELL	20	32¢	$6	0x569c3c…
09-23 04:38:19	Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1?	Yes	BUY	20	35¢	$7	0xe13aa4…
09-23 04:36:44	will sense and sensibility score at least 85 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer 20261019	Yes	BUY	20	9¢	$2	0xce5b02…
09-22 14:42:37	Next OpenAI GPT Luna (5.7+) released by September 27, 2026?	No	BUY	20	16¢	$3	0xd1dddd…
09-22 13:29:22	Clavicular in jail by October 31?	Yes	SELL	32	10¢	$3	0xce7322…
09-22 13:26:24	Clavicular in jail by October 31?	Yes	BUY	12	10¢	$1	0x0526eb…
09-22 13:19:57	Will Trump say "Manhattan" during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly?	Yes	SELL	50	18¢	$9	0xd54a91…
09-22 13:19:00	Will Trump say "Manhattan" during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly?	Yes	BUY	50	22¢	$11	0xa1f0ea…
09-22 13:12:46	Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week 1?	Yes	SELL	20	18¢	$4	0xf94473…
09-22 13:11:00	Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week 1?	Yes	BUY	20	22¢	$4	0x3b491e…
09-22 12:48:30	Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 22, 2026?	No	SELL	20	27¢	$5	0x36769b…
09-22 12:47:15	Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 22, 2026?	No	BUY	20	27¢	$5	0x220741…
09-22 12:41:13	Republicans flip Democrats for Senate by November 2?	Yes	SELL	12	28¢	$3	0xa129cf…
09-22 12:40:45	Republicans flip Democrats for Senate by November 2?	Yes	BUY	12	28¢	$3	0x5ab8e9…
09-22 12:36:45	Clavicular in jail by October 31?	Yes	BUY	20	11¢	$2	0xa36eb1…
09-21 10:14:54	will jd vance say afford during his rally in north carolina	No	SELL	50	12¢	$6	0x0295d0…
09-21 08:29:30	will jd vance say illegal alien during his rally in north carolina	No	SELL	7	21¢	$2	0xb8d95e…