Young-Bronchitis — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$840

Unrealized P&L

+$96

Hit rate

55.8%

Resolved

181

Trades

1,470

lifetime

Volume

$13.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$28

5 positions

First seen

2026-01-22

last 09-22 14:29

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 69 days

Categories

Politics

61% 37% -$81

Other

38% 24% -$710

Sports

0% 0% -$50

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

6 active days in 12wk • peak 17 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	-3,182	-$19	0¢	$-11	+$8	08-12 22:41
Will Trump endorse JD Vance for president before 2027?	Yes	-204	-$73	4¢	$-9	+$64	08-07 23:20
Will Israel strike 9 countries in 2026?	Yes	-470	-$9	1¢	$-3	+$5	09-15 22:15
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	+1,033	-$2	0¢	$3	+$4	06-16 08:33
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	-1,376	-$16	0¢	$-2	+$14	06-23 23:08

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	23	$661	4,635	4,016	+619	Yes	-$31	03-03 00:13
will france uk or germany strike iran by march 31 929	3	$595	1,202	1,202	+0	No	+$195	03-01 20:51
will iran strike turkey in march	13	$495	1,929	882	+1,047	No	+$15	03-13 03:14
will usd reach 1pt5m iranian rials by january 31	10	$449	516	516	+0	Yes	+$114	01-28 04:07
Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	143	$388	5,479	4,693	+786	No	+$43	03-08 18:49
Will Hassan Rouhani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	164	$369	6,001	4,033	+1,968	No	+$154	03-08 18:48
us strikes yemen by february 28 2026	18	$351	1,727	1,019	+708	No	-$96	02-28 17:46
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	6	$330	344	344	+0	Yes	+$190	03-04 16:59
will israel or the us target isfahan nuclear technology center nuclear facility	13	$308	583	333	+250	Yes	+$95	04-03 13:28
will israel strike lebanon on february 15 2026	2	$297	237	237	+0	Yes	+$177	02-15 20:13
will gold gc hit high 5600 by end of march	8	$294	1,394	0	+1,394	No	-$294	03-10 01:32
will usd reach 1pt7m iranian rials by february 28	7	$294	413	301	+112	Yes	+$258	02-28 23:20
hezbollah strike on israel by march 7	10	$273	1,500	1,500	+0	Yes	+$63	03-02 00:19
will iran announce a new supreme leader on march 8 2026	7	$253	1,096	355	+741	No	-$147	03-08 21:35
will crude oil cl hit high 130 by end of march 366 294	8	$245	1,065	0	+1,065	No	-$245	03-09 19:42
iran strike on us military by february 28	2	$236	188	188	+0	Yes	+$136	02-28 11:18
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	4	$233	2,556	2,556	+0	Yes	-$227	03-01 20:55
will 20 24 ships transit the strait of hormuz between march 10 16	4	$219	2,228	1,671	+557	No	+$19	03-17 18:17
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	5	$215	250	200	+50	Yes	+$160	03-14 13:13
will israel take military action in gaza on march 21 2026	13	$183	179	179	+0	No	+$73	03-22 13:38
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	5	$182	325	325	+0	open	—	07-15 22:47
will gold gc hit high 5800 by end of march	5	$178	2,120	0	+2,120	No	-$178	03-09 15:28
will france uk or germany strike iran by february 28	11	$162	1,200	1,200	+0	No	-$66	02-28 16:26
Will USD be between 1.7M and 1.8M Iranian rials on June 30?	12	$162	208	158	+50	Yes	+$185	07-01 11:02
will usd reach 1pt8m iranian rials by march 31	6	$155	1,669	252	+1,417	No	-$145	03-31 09:40
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by march 20	7	$155	311	168	+143	No	+$7	03-20 17:30
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	3	$154	417	417	+0	No	+$54	02-28 06:44
will israel strike gaza on february 28 2026	1	$150	414	0	+414	No	-$150	02-28 13:48
Will Muhammad Mirbaqiri be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	92	$148	5,662	4,412	+1,250	No	+$48	03-08 17:00
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 7, 2026?	9	$146	147	147	+0	No	+$29	04-07 22:06

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-22 14:29:07	Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	88	44¢	$39	0xef9d51…
09-15 22:15:39	Will Israel strike 9 countries in 2026?	Yes	SELL	130	2¢	$3	0xb6c518…
08-22 21:23:01	Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	88	23¢	$20	0xbbf731…
08-22 21:05:36	israel x lebanon diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 20260810145737300	Yes	SELL	36	7¢	$3	0xab8ddc…
08-22 19:33:19	Will USD be between 2.0M and 2.1M Iranian rials on August 31?	Yes	BUY	10	22¢	$2	0x2002c3…
08-22 19:15:46	Will USD be between 2.0M and 2.1M Iranian rials on August 31?	Yes	BUY	3	22¢	$1	0x7f7a4e…
08-22 19:13:33	Will USD be between 2.0M and 2.1M Iranian rials on August 31?	Yes	BUY	62	22¢	$13	0xf3de68…
08-22 19:09:12	Will USD be between 2.0M and 2.1M Iranian rials on August 31?	Yes	BUY	47	22¢	$10	0xf20b5b…
08-22 18:58:22	Will USD be between 2.0M and 2.1M Iranian rials on August 31?	Yes	BUY	3	22¢	$1	0x08cb19…
08-22 18:17:54	Will USD be between 2.0M and 2.1M Iranian rials on August 31?	Yes	BUY	3	22¢	$1	0x5b15c9…
08-22 18:15:25	Will USD be between 2.0M and 2.1M Iranian rials on August 31?	Yes	BUY	3	22¢	$1	0xe427da…
08-22 18:15:22	Will USD be between 2.0M and 2.1M Iranian rials on August 31?	Yes	BUY	3	22¢	$1	0x6a48e4…
08-22 18:10:09	Will USD be between 2.0M and 2.1M Iranian rials on August 31?	Yes	BUY	1	22¢	$0	0x95c7b5…
08-22 18:06:39	Will USD be between 2.0M and 2.1M Iranian rials on August 31?	Yes	BUY	3	22¢	$1	0x8d8d8f…
08-22 18:05:57	Will USD be between 2.0M and 2.1M Iranian rials on August 31?	Yes	BUY	3	22¢	$1	0x7c5ff1…
08-22 18:02:55	Will USD be between 2.0M and 2.1M Iranian rials on August 31?	Yes	BUY	3	22¢	$1	0xd4d71c…
08-22 18:02:55	Will USD be between 2.0M and 2.1M Iranian rials on August 31?	Yes	BUY	3	22¢	$1	0x37da75…
08-22 18:01:09	Will USD be between 2.0M and 2.1M Iranian rials on August 31?	Yes	BUY	3	22¢	$1	0xa165df…
08-22 17:58:31	Will USD be between 2.0M and 2.1M Iranian rials on August 31?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x5a1d54…
08-16 21:51:42	Will 200-219 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 10-August 16?	Yes	BUY	51	14¢	$7	0xbc2a94…
08-16 21:47:18	iran full airspace closure by september 30 20260727170320670	Yes	BUY	200	15¢	$30	0xf6234a…
08-13 20:22:00	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	36	14¢	$5	0x3d8916…
08-13 20:20:28	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	289	10¢	$28	0xdc96fb…
08-12 22:41:25	Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	3,182	1¢	$19	0x15cfb8…
08-07 23:20:33	Will Trump endorse JD Vance for president before 2027?	Yes	SELL	84	47¢	$40	0x374891…
08-07 23:19:43	Will Trump endorse JD Vance for president before 2027?	Yes	SELL	15	47¢	$7	0x40df3f…
08-06 09:27:09	Will Trump endorse JD Vance for president before 2027?	Yes	SELL	3	28¢	$1	0xea21fa…
07-28 00:27:13	Will there be between 60 and 80 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?	Yes	SELL	530	1¢	$4	0x9f7fb9…
07-18 20:21:19	Will there be 80 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?	Yes	SELL	342	0¢	$1	0x16959c…
07-16 18:21:41	Will there be 80 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?	Yes	SELL	333	0¢	$1	0xaebf9a…
07-16 15:51:25	Will there be between 60 and 80 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?	Yes	SELL	143	1¢	$1	0xb411a7…
07-16 15:16:59	Will there be between 60 and 80 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?	Yes	SELL	5	1¢	$0	0xe2afc7…
07-16 15:16:59	Will there be 80 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?	Yes	SELL	5	0¢	$0	0x484d4c…
07-16 14:26:40	Will there be 80 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?	Yes	SELL	5	0¢	$0	0xd58be5…
07-16 14:26:40	Will there be between 60 and 80 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?	Yes	SELL	5	1¢	$0	0x016a0e…
07-16 14:26:35	Will there be between 60 and 80 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?	Yes	SELL	5	1¢	$0	0xeb88e1…
07-16 14:26:35	Will there be 80 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?	Yes	SELL	5	0¢	$0	0x5bebca…
07-16 14:26:29	Will there be between 60 and 80 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?	Yes	SELL	5	1¢	$0	0xfef753…
07-16 14:26:29	Will there be 80 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?	Yes	SELL	5	0¢	$0	0xf8608a…
07-16 14:26:25	Will there be 80 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?	Yes	SELL	5	0¢	$0	0xb22070…
07-16 14:26:25	Will there be between 60 and 80 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?	Yes	SELL	5	1¢	$0	0x51044e…
07-16 14:26:22	Will there be between 60 and 80 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?	Yes	SELL	5	1¢	$0	0x89affa…
07-16 14:26:22	Will there be 80 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?	Yes	SELL	5	0¢	$0	0x7a8c68…
07-16 14:26:20	Will there be between 60 and 80 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?	Yes	SELL	5	1¢	$0	0x83842a…
07-16 14:26:20	Will there be 80 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?	Yes	SELL	5	0¢	$0	0x504e40…
07-16 14:26:13	Will there be between 60 and 80 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?	Yes	SELL	5	1¢	$0	0xcb1a7a…
07-16 14:26:13	Will there be 80 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?	Yes	SELL	5	0¢	$0	0x18bac7…
07-16 14:26:08	Will there be between 60 and 80 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?	Yes	SELL	5	1¢	$0	0x78f84d…
07-16 14:26:08	Will there be 80 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?	Yes	SELL	5	0¢	$0	0x151e0d…
07-16 14:26:05	Will there be between 60 and 80 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?	Yes	SELL	5	1¢	$0	0x6ab3bb…
07-16 14:26:04	Will there be 80 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?	Yes	SELL	5	0¢	$0	0x498db3…
07-16 11:32:37	Will there be 80 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?	Yes	SELL	378	0¢	$1	0x6d9527…
07-16 11:09:07	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	120	42¢	$50	0xc8cc11…
07-16 04:12:11	Will there be 80 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?	Yes	BUY	30	0¢	$0	0x1396ae…
07-16 02:57:02	Will there be 80 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?	Yes	BUY	11	0¢	$0	0xdcd3aa…
07-15 22:47:08	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	100	42¢	$42	0x6986e8…
07-15 22:42:47	Will there be 80 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?	Yes	BUY	61	0¢	$0	0xa9816d…
07-15 22:41:34	Will there be between 60 and 80 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?	Yes	BUY	305	1¢	$3	0xbcad59…
07-15 22:38:41	Will there be between 60 and 80 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?	Yes	BUY	406	1¢	$3	0x5e5d9d…
07-15 22:32:38	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	61	5¢	$3	0xf69844…
07-15 22:27:32	Will there be between 60 and 80 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?	Yes	BUY	319	1¢	$2	0x9dca4e…
07-15 22:26:28	Will there be 80 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$3	0x92c0b7…
07-14 08:02:32	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	225	43¢	$97	0x49a1e4…
07-04 20:44:10	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	1¢	$0	0xf7dc7f…
07-04 20:37:05	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	42	1¢	$0	0xd0d364…
07-04 20:37:04	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	42	1¢	$0	0xb5b919…
07-04 20:24:49	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	29	1¢	$0	0x7b58b3…
07-04 20:24:47	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	29	1¢	$0	0xe6de30…
07-04 19:26:29	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	56	2¢	$1	0x1db5af…
07-01 16:33:22	Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 29-July 5?	Yes	BUY	3	1¢	$0	0xe489a2…
07-01 14:59:49	Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28?	No	BUY	588	0¢	$2	0x0c6a1e…
07-01 11:02:46	Will USD be between 1.7M and 1.8M Iranian rials on June 30?	Yes	SELL	95	100¢	$95	0xcfb950…
07-01 09:46:59	Will USD be between 1.7M and 1.8M Iranian rials on June 30?	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xd9794c…
07-01 09:44:38	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	43¢	$9	0x950ff1…
06-30 20:02:08	Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 29-July 5?	Yes	BUY	38	1¢	$0	0x7f1d3e…
06-30 20:02:07	Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 29-July 5?	Yes	BUY	27	1¢	$0	0xda9e4b…
06-30 18:42:52	Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 29-July 5?	Yes	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0xcea352…
06-30 15:56:22	Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?	Yes	BUY	137	3¢	$4	0xfc47a8…
06-30 14:09:22	Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 29-July 5?	Yes	BUY	104	1¢	$1	0x2972f7…
06-30 14:09:20	Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 29-July 5?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xf6910e…
06-30 14:08:41	Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 29-July 5?	Yes	BUY	105	0¢	$1	0x7e8666…
06-30 14:08:40	Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 29-July 5?	Yes	BUY	58	0¢	$0	0xe15e25…
06-30 14:08:38	Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 29-July 5?	Yes	BUY	112	0¢	$1	0xd669f2…
06-30 09:04:53	Will USD be between 1.7M and 1.8M Iranian rials on June 30?	Yes	SELL	48	88¢	$42	0x46efe6…
06-30 08:36:05	Will USD be between 1.7M and 1.8M Iranian rials on June 30?	Yes	SELL	10	62¢	$6	0xc96f46…
06-29 19:29:52	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	55¢	$11	0x3b1f55…
06-29 05:31:49	Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28?	Yes	BUY	458	0¢	$2	0xecd80d…
06-29 05:29:41	Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28?	Yes	BUY	133	1¢	$1	0xe1f0a7…
06-29 05:29:41	Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28?	Yes	BUY	133	0¢	$0	0x1031f1…
06-29 02:31:22	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	41	43¢	$18	0x544c9a…
06-29 00:07:10	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	67	30¢	$20	0x817202…
06-29 00:06:16	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	174	29¢	$50	0xdb8352…
06-29 00:02:32	Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?	Yes	BUY	263	8¢	$20	0x3fe220…
06-28 23:59:26	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	556	9¢	$50	0x99b108…
06-28 23:52:37	Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28?	Yes	BUY	17	0¢	$0	0x206e3f…
06-28 23:52:10	Will USD be between 1.8M and 1.9M Iranian rials on June 30?	Yes	BUY	20	12¢	$2	0xbe0b77…
06-28 22:45:25	Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28?	Yes	BUY	13	0¢	$0	0xec0251…
06-28 22:45:25	Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28?	Yes	BUY	13	0¢	$0	0x206dd1…
06-28 20:21:58	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	135	0¢	$0	0xda72f3…
06-28 20:21:56	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	66	0¢	$0	0x88dd89…