Muddy-Compromise — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$9

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

69.3%

Resolved

Trades

2,353

lifetime

Volume

$189.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$80

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 07-04 17:49

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

54% 50% +$9

Other

23% — —

Politics

15% 0% $-0

Sports

5% — —

Tech

2% — —

Pop-Culture

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

38 active days in 12wk • peak 79 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch?	61	$23.2K	28,304	26,562	+1,741	open	—	03-05 12:16
Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch?	27	$9.9K	8,458	8,458	+0	open	—	03-24 20:00
elon musk of tweets december 26 january 2 500 519	9	$7.5K	4,071	4,071	+0	open	—	01-02 16:57
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	34	$7.4K	4,987	4,987	+0	open	—	04-07 23:18
us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	4	$5.1K	2,711	2,711	+0	open	—	02-19 18:05
elon musk of tweets march 13 march 20 360 379	7	$4.4K	2,396	2,396	+0	open	—	03-20 14:16
will the 2026 bad bunny super bowl halftime show video get between 75m and 100m views in its first 7 days	62	$4.1K	3,927	3,927	+0	open	—	02-15 06:12
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	7	$3.7K	2,263	2,263	+0	open	—	02-19 21:48
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	11	$3.1K	3,159	2,625	+534	open	—	06-01 17:03
elon musk of tweets february 13 february 20 360 379	3	$3.0K	1,534	1,534	+0	open	—	02-20 15:02
will a claude mythos model be released by june 9 2026	14	$2.8K	1,738	1,738	+0	open	—	06-09 17:04
elon musk of tweets march 13 march 20 340 359	28	$2.6K	2,650	2,650	+0	open	—	03-20 12:19
megaeth market cap fdv 2b one day after launch 738 867 649 272 765 733	14	$2.5K	2,031	2,031	+0	open	—	04-30 11:14
btc updown 15m 1775058300	10	$2.5K	1,331	1,322	+9	open	—	04-01 15:57
elon musk of tweets march 10 march 17 260 279	14	$2.3K	2,994	2,994	+0	open	—	03-17 07:28
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	4	$2.3K	5,271	5,271	+0	open	—	04-04 14:56
us strikes iran by february 23 2026 678 563	6	$1.9K	1,134	1,134	+0	open	—	02-19 22:49
will the 2026 bad bunny super bowl halftime show video get between 100m and 125m views in its first 7 days	47	$1.9K	2,501	2,591	-90	open	—	02-15 16:22
btc updown 15m 1768758300	38	$1.8K	1,646	1,620	+26	open	—	01-18 17:54
lal mad bar 2026 04 04 bar	2	$1.7K	1,502	1,479	+23	open	—	04-04 19:56
megaeth market cap fdv 1pt5b one day after launch 371 844 879 681	10	$1.7K	2,134	2,134	+0	open	—	04-30 11:25
Will Drake officially release Iceman by May 31, 2026?	11	$1.7K	886	886	+0	open	—	04-24 16:30
will iran strike oman again in march	11	$1.6K	1,026	1,026	+0	open	—	04-04 16:06
Over $20M committed to the Space public sale?	8	$1.4K	4,181	2,638	+1,544	open	—	01-16 23:42
iran closes its airspace by june 8	21	$1.4K	1,297	1,297	+0	open	—	06-07 20:37
nfl sea ne 2026 02 08	2	$1.4K	776	776	+0	open	—	02-09 02:49
Over $3M committed to the Hurupay public sale?	5	$1.3K	1,467	1,467	+0	open	—	02-07 17:07
elon musk of tweets march 10 march 17 300 319	2	$1.3K	667	667	+0	open	—	03-17 16:14
elon musk of tweets february 13 february 20 340 359	5	$1.2K	634	634	+0	open	—	02-20 14:07
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	11	$1.2K	1,682	911	+771	open	—	05-29 13:32

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-04 17:49:25	over 30m committed to the laso finance public sale 196 325	No	SELL	330	100¢	$330	0xa245fc…
07-04 17:09:31	over 35m committed to the laso finance public sale 555 417	No	SELL	165	100¢	$165	0x881996…
07-04 17:07:58	over 40m committed to the laso finance public sale 638	No	SELL	488	100¢	$488	0x9ef396…
07-04 16:50:25	over 35m committed to the laso finance public sale 555 417	No	BUY	13	98¢	$13	0xe460bb…
07-04 16:49:28	over 25m committed to the laso finance public sale 663 611 164	No	SELL	148	1¢	$2	0xe5cd70…
07-04 16:49:07	over 25m committed to the laso finance public sale 663 611 164	No	SELL	91	1¢	$1	0x3609db…
07-04 16:47:25	over 40m committed to the laso finance public sale 638	No	BUY	290	99¢	$288	0xa5abdd…
07-04 16:46:58	over 40m committed to the laso finance public sale 638	No	BUY	198	99¢	$197	0x72c4c0…
07-04 16:42:28	over 35m committed to the laso finance public sale 555 417	No	BUY	152	97¢	$147	0xcacf79…
07-04 16:41:13	over 25m committed to the laso finance public sale 663 611 164	No	BUY	239	2¢	$5	0x604567…
07-04 16:40:52	over 30m committed to the laso finance public sale 196 325	No	BUY	330	89¢	$294	0xbf71d0…
07-03 19:41:35	Will Justin Bieber perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	No	SELL	102	17¢	$17	0x6293aa…
07-03 18:38:37	Will Justin Bieber perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	No	SELL	200	17¢	$34	0x0694ac…
07-03 18:24:52	Will Justin Bieber perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	No	SELL	7	17¢	$1	0x9ddb41…
07-03 18:24:50	Will Justin Bieber perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	No	SELL	16	17¢	$3	0x5fa109…
07-03 18:16:07	Will Justin Bieber perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	No	SELL	17	17¢	$3	0x742a2f…
07-03 17:50:05	Will Justin Bieber perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	No	SELL	72	17¢	$12	0x398344…
07-03 17:47:10	Will Justin Bieber perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	No	SELL	15	17¢	$3	0xae5ded…
07-03 17:13:07	Will Justin Bieber perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	No	SELL	118	17¢	$20	0xb9ed87…
07-03 16:59:38	Will Justin Bieber perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	No	SELL	490	17¢	$83	0xaad596…
07-03 05:18:22	Will Justin Bieber perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	No	BUY	26	18¢	$5	0x25e10d…
07-03 05:18:14	Will Justin Bieber perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	No	BUY	1,012	18¢	$182	0x5b4568…
06-30 21:25:08	ethereum up or down june 30 2026 5pm et	Up	BUY	5	13¢	$1	0xbda837…
06-30 15:51:44	will drake have a 1 hit in the us in june	No	SELL	306	57¢	$174	0x014ffc…
06-29 23:50:26	will drake have a 1 hit in the us in june	No	BUY	13	45¢	$6	0xbe03a2…
06-29 22:50:29	fifwc ger par 2026 06 29 team to advance	Paraguay	SELL	25	29¢	$7	0x2eb9bb…
06-29 22:50:28	fifwc ger par 2026 06 29 team to advance	Paraguay	SELL	10	29¢	$3	0xd67905…
06-29 22:50:28	fifwc ger par 2026 06 29 team to advance	Paraguay	SELL	450	29¢	$130	0x2b2745…
06-29 22:50:28	fifwc ger par 2026 06 29 team to advance	Paraguay	SELL	110	29¢	$32	0x24ea79…
06-29 22:50:28	fifwc ger par 2026 06 29 team to advance	Paraguay	SELL	388	29¢	$113	0x000b50…
06-29 22:50:26	fifwc ger par 2026 06 29 team to advance	Paraguay	SELL	17	29¢	$5	0x8d8d5e…
06-29 22:35:26	fifwc ger par 2026 06 29 team to advance	Paraguay	BUY	1,000	25¢	$250	0x1015a6…
06-29 20:37:50	will drake have a 1 hit in the us in june	No	BUY	55	35¢	$19	0x4182b2…
06-29 19:52:53	will drake have a 1 hit in the us in june	No	BUY	8	49¢	$4	0xab6bec…
06-29 19:16:20	will drake have a 1 hit in the us in june	No	BUY	230	48¢	$110	0xd5482f…
06-28 21:02:34	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	SELL	95	33¢	$31	0x282e19…
06-28 20:57:29	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	SELL	45	34¢	$16	0x34534d…
06-28 20:54:16	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	SELL	62	34¢	$21	0x99a121…
06-28 20:44:49	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	BUY	62	24¢	$15	0x8e7e79…
06-28 20:39:41	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	BUY	40	27¢	$11	0x770564…
06-28 20:39:25	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	BUY	100	36¢	$36	0x58f3b6…
06-16 07:21:03	btc updown 5m 1781594400	Up	BUY	74	31¢	$23	0xb8c4f4…
06-16 07:12:03	btc updown 5m 1781593800	Down	SELL	87	77¢	$67	0xf72ada…
06-16 07:09:25	btc updown 5m 1781593800	Down	BUY	87	52¢	$45	0x26be0c…
06-15 21:46:45	btc updown 5m 1781559900	Up	SELL	89	28¢	$25	0x346127…
06-15 21:46:12	btc updown 5m 1781559900	Up	BUY	89	28¢	$25	0x57cde5…
06-15 21:44:12	btc updown 5m 1781559600	Down	SELL	148	75¢	$111	0x0b32c0…
06-15 21:39:18	btc updown 5m 1781559600	Down	BUY	148	50¢	$74	0x13a870…
06-15 21:32:51	btc updown 5m 1781559000	Up	SELL	285	82¢	$234	0x32dd0c…
06-15 21:28:46	btc updown 5m 1781559000	Up	BUY	285	52¢	$149	0x8a85b2…
06-15 21:22:31	btc updown 5m 1781558400	Down	BUY	110	41¢	$45	0xfab22b…
06-15 21:16:18	btc updown 5m 1781558100	Down	BUY	88	51¢	$45	0x4f5832…
06-15 21:12:55	btc updown 5m 1781557800	Up	BUY	64	78¢	$50	0x0d8bdc…
06-15 21:11:24	btc updown 5m 1781557800	Up	BUY	80	50¢	$40	0xd88a47…
06-15 21:08:27	btc updown 5m 1781557500	Up	BUY	275	4¢	$11	0x9d8071…
06-15 18:42:07	btc updown 5m 1781548800	Up	BUY	57	35¢	$20	0x4c1699…
06-15 18:39:03	btc updown 5m 1781548500	Up	SELL	72	72¢	$52	0x588b93…
06-15 18:38:30	btc updown 5m 1781548500	Up	BUY	45	22¢	$10	0x20e78c…
06-15 18:37:09	btc updown 5m 1781548500	Up	BUY	26	38¢	$10	0xbe6d44…
06-15 18:34:16	btc updown 5m 1781548200	Down	BUY	650	6¢	$39	0x150085…
06-15 18:30:19	btc updown 5m 1781548200	Down	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0x9f8664…
06-14 22:52:25	btc updown 5m 1781477400	Down	BUY	327	35¢	$114	0x92f8d0…
06-14 22:42:49	btc updown 5m 1781476800	Down	BUY	418	24¢	$100	0xcb6c44…
06-14 22:41:15	btc updown 5m 1781476800	Up	SELL	244	56¢	$136	0x4d6ab5…
06-14 22:40:28	btc updown 5m 1781476800	Up	BUY	244	41¢	$100	0xfdd909…
06-14 22:26:30	btc updown 5m 1781475900	Up	SELL	229	53¢	$121	0x5f591f…
06-14 22:22:07	btc updown 5m 1781475600	Down	BUY	256	39¢	$100	0x049a4a…
06-10 10:05:25	btc updown 5m 1781085900	Up	BUY	90	31¢	$28	0x3669ad…
06-10 10:04:51	btc updown 5m 1781085600	Down	SELL	31	95¢	$29	0x4555c3…
06-10 10:02:25	btc updown 5m 1781085600	Down	BUY	31	52¢	$16	0x0fc395…
06-10 10:00:55	Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	SELL	143	12¢	$17	0x5c4d43…
06-10 09:56:04	btc updown 5m 1781085300	Down	BUY	360	31¢	$112	0x861816…
06-10 09:54:22	btc updown 15m 1781084700	Down	BUY	185	54¢	$100	0x8dc00d…
06-10 09:53:18	btc updown 15m 1781084700	Down	SELL	258	50¢	$129	0xa31128…
06-10 09:52:10	btc updown 15m 1781084700	Down	BUY	258	38¢	$98	0xeca375…
06-10 09:50:37	btc updown 15m 1781084700	Up	SELL	507	41¢	$207	0x713178…
06-10 09:48:01	btc updown 15m 1781084700	Up	BUY	294	23¢	$68	0x5a3d6b…
06-10 09:47:43	Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	SELL	229	33¢	$76	0xe4afa0…
06-10 09:46:25	btc updown 15m 1781084700	Up	BUY	11	41¢	$5	0x70678f…
06-10 09:46:09	btc updown 15m 1781084700	Up	BUY	202	44¢	$89	0xe2816a…
06-10 09:40:07	btc updown 5m 1781084400	Up	BUY	176	41¢	$72	0x833768…
06-10 09:38:07	btc updown 5m 1781084100	Up	SELL	4	64¢	$3	0x2b5af5…
06-10 09:38:06	btc updown 5m 1781084100	Up	SELL	20	64¢	$13	0xdcffb7…
06-10 09:38:06	btc updown 5m 1781084100	Up	SELL	20	64¢	$13	0xdb9bc6…
06-10 09:38:06	btc updown 5m 1781084100	Up	SELL	2	64¢	$1	0xcb1e7e…
06-10 09:38:06	btc updown 5m 1781084100	Up	SELL	10	64¢	$7	0x91c8ca…
06-10 09:38:06	btc updown 5m 1781084100	Up	SELL	93	64¢	$60	0x4e1dbc…
06-10 09:38:06	btc updown 5m 1781084100	Up	SELL	7	64¢	$4	0x0280ae…
06-10 09:38:06	btc updown 5m 1781084100	Up	SELL	3	64¢	$2	0x008f85…
06-10 09:37:00	btc updown 5m 1781084100	Up	BUY	159	63¢	$100	0x5dd2f0…
06-10 09:33:40	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	No	SELL	464	38¢	$176	0xfcbc7c…
06-10 08:57:13	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	No	BUY	464	40¢	$186	0x11f765…
06-10 08:11:18	btc updown 5m 1781079000	Up	SELL	211	91¢	$192	0xdf2330…
06-10 08:08:51	btc updown 5m 1781079000	Up	BUY	211	52¢	$109	0x8bd370…
06-10 08:06:04	btc updown 5m 1781078400	Down	SELL	115	99¢	$113	0x1c7139…
06-10 08:04:24	btc updown 5m 1781078400	Down	BUY	115	96¢	$110	0xe16e2f…
06-09 18:40:07	btc updown 5m 1781030100	Up	SELL	107	99¢	$106	0x7ca0ed…
06-09 18:39:34	btc updown 5m 1781030100	Up	BUY	107	90¢	$96	0xe2908f…
06-09 18:38:36	btc updown 5m 1781030100	Down	SELL	239	43¢	$103	0xc6e2cc…
06-09 18:38:13	btc updown 5m 1781030100	Down	BUY	239	28¢	$67	0x67968e…