Soupy-Hypothesis-Armrest — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$84

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

61.1%

Resolved

115

Trades

233

lifetime

Volume

$827

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-12

last 05-20 17:48

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 21 days

Categories

Crypto

83% 58% -$24

Politics

17% 0% -$59

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-05-20).

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	2	$97	153	153	+0	Yes	-$59	04-15 19:26
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-16 18:25 UTC	6	$45	30	30	+1	Up	+$0	04-16 18:30
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	2	$40	25	25	+0	Yes	$0	04-15 19:35
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-15 19:35 UTC	3	$33	1,014	13	+1,000	Up	-$7	04-15 19:38
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-16 18:45 UTC	6	$31	18	18	+0	Up	+$2	04-16 18:50
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-18 06:30 UTC	6	$31	33	31	+1	Up	+$2	04-18 06:34
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-16 20:00 UTC	2	$21	17	16	+1	Down	+$12	04-16 20:05
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-16 19:50 UTC	2	$18	14	14	+1	Up	+$9	04-16 19:55
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-16 19:20 UTC	2	$16	11	11	+0	Up	+$5	04-16 19:25
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-18 06:35 UTC	4	$15	15	14	+0	Down	-$5	04-18 06:38
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-16 19:40 UTC	2	$14	9	9	+0	Up	+$4	04-16 19:42
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 11?	4	$13	13	13	+0	Down	-$1	05-11 11:57
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-16 19:25 UTC	2	$13	8	8	+0	Up	+$3	04-16 19:30
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-16 18:55 UTC	2	$13	8	8	+0	Up	+$3	04-16 18:58
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-17 17:35 UTC	2	$13	8	8	+0	Down	+$3	04-17 17:40
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-17 17:15 UTC	2	$13	8	8	+0	Up	+$3	04-17 17:20
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-18 06:25 UTC	2	$12	7	7	+0	Down	+$2	04-18 06:30
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-20 18:45 UTC	2	$12	8	8	+0	Up	+$2	04-20 18:48
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-20 18:50 UTC	2	$12	8	8	+0	Up	+$2	04-20 18:50
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-16 19:15 UTC	2	$12	7	7	+0	Up	+$2	04-16 19:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	2	$12	9	9	+0	Up	+$2	04-25 09:36
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-17 17:20 UTC	2	$11	6	6	+0	Down	+$1	04-17 17:25
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	2	$11	10	10	+0	Up	+$2	04-25 09:13
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-16 19:10 UTC	2	$11	10	9	+0	Down	+$1	04-16 19:10
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-16 18:50 UTC	2	$10	5	5	+0	Up	+$0	04-16 18:55
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-20 18:55 UTC	2	$10	7	7	+0	Up	+$0	04-20 18:59
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-18 09:10 UTC	2	$10	6	6	+0	Up	+$0	04-18 09:11
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-17 17:40 UTC	2	$10	512	0	+512	Up	-$10	04-17 17:45
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-18 08:55 UTC	2	$9	10	9	+0	Up	+$0	04-18 08:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	4	$8	7	6	+0	Down	+$0	04-25 18:44

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-20 17:48:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Up	SELL	2	4¢	$0	0x9ac022…
05-20 17:45:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x0649be…
05-20 17:42:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Up	SELL	3	60¢	$2	0x64fdae…
05-20 17:40:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Up	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0xebaf97…
05-20 17:36:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Up	SELL	2	95¢	$2	0xfcbae7…
05-20 17:35:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Up	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0xe8f95e…
05-20 17:33:18	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 21?	Up	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0x807fc8…
05-20 10:12:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Down	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x436c74…
05-15 16:30:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Down	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x64586b…
05-15 16:30:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Up	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x0506d7…
05-15 16:25:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Up	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x772784…
05-15 16:24:07	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 16?	Up	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x05a1c5…
05-13 03:15:57	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 13?	Up	SELL	2	76¢	$1	0xe3d458…
05-12 18:26:31	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 13?	Up	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0xdd7d68…
05-12 10:54:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Down	SELL	2	1¢	$0	0xf1aed2…
05-12 10:50:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Down	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x17ac59…
05-12 10:48:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Up	SELL	5	71¢	$4	0xa995c3…
05-12 10:47:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Up	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0x252bbd…
05-12 07:18:15	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 12?	Down	SELL	2	67¢	$1	0xec54ca…
05-12 06:38:22	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 12?	Down	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x9d76d7…
05-11 12:15:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Down	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x7bdbfe…
05-11 11:58:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x16e782…
05-11 11:58:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Down	SELL	1	49¢	$1	0x2603ae…
05-11 11:57:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0xae7153…
05-11 11:57:46	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 11?	Down	SELL	3	66¢	$2	0x2c6079…
05-11 06:09:41	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 11?	Down	BUY	3	71¢	$2	0xd51c16…
05-11 02:31:43	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 11?	Up	SELL	10	44¢	$4	0x879f20…
05-10 16:01:07	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 11?	Up	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xaffccc…
05-10 13:56:55	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 10?	Up	SELL	5	92¢	$5	0xbb0b02…
05-09 16:52:19	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 10?	Up	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0xc1ecd0…
05-09 14:21:56	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 9?	Up	SELL	3	88¢	$3	0x5b567a…
05-09 09:30:49	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 9?	Up	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0xe9179c…
05-09 08:00:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Down	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x4c7369…
05-09 07:58:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Down	SELL	3	51¢	$2	0xbb2103…
05-09 07:57:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0xbb6541…
05-09 07:54:48	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 9?	Up	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x29c205…
05-09 07:53:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Down	SELL	2	42¢	$1	0x85f57b…
05-09 07:50:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Down	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x8d6d95…
05-09 07:37:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Down	SELL	2	84¢	$2	0x146ab6…
05-09 07:35:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Down	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0xb30e7e…
05-09 07:07:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Down	SELL	2	80¢	$1	0x3b3119…
05-09 07:05:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Down	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0xea6bb4…
05-07 13:50:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Down	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x7ee3f2…
05-07 13:47:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Down	SELL	3	90¢	$2	0x4dc151…
05-07 13:45:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Down	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x20005a…
05-07 08:15:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Down	SELL	2	77¢	$2	0x3b8963…
05-07 08:15:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xb7cdc3…
05-03 18:51:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Down	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0xbc5df2…
05-03 18:51:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Up	SELL	1	62¢	$1	0xa7b45b…
05-03 18:50:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Up	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x7e97d9…
05-03 18:48:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	SELL	6	18¢	$1	0xb6f143…
05-03 18:47:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0xf793d0…
05-03 18:45:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Up	SELL	2	75¢	$2	0x2c433d…
05-03 18:45:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x087bb9…
05-03 18:44:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Down	SELL	2	58¢	$1	0xc0ad14…
05-03 18:40:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Down	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x895875…
05-03 18:39:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	SELL	4	33¢	$1	0x4b6148…
05-03 18:37:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0xa322b1…
05-03 18:26:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Up	SELL	2	83¢	$2	0xde0dcd…
05-03 18:25:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Up	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0xd326ed…
05-03 18:24:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Up	SELL	2	55¢	$1	0x59a544…
05-03 18:24:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Up	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x48dd8f…
05-03 18:23:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Down	SELL	2	22¢	$0	0xa19fe5…
05-03 18:23:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Down	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x58a124…
05-02 19:52:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Down	SELL	2	86¢	$2	0x9fe26b…
05-02 19:50:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Down	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x7b2db5…
05-02 19:45:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Up	BUY	4	49¢	$2	0xafd5e5…
05-02 19:41:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Down	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x3adb82…
05-02 19:08:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Up	SELL	2	59¢	$1	0x721543…
05-02 19:05:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Up	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0xa4c8af…
05-02 10:55:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x6b8052…
05-02 10:53:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Up	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x2cdc61…
05-02 10:52:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Down	SELL	2	79¢	$1	0xbf3192…
05-02 10:51:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Down	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x36f0b8…
05-02 10:47:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Down	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x5af3ed…
05-02 10:04:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Down	SELL	2	87¢	$2	0x4636e8…
05-02 10:00:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x26d36e…
05-02 09:55:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0xf02cf5…
04-30 16:34:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Down	SELL	5	41¢	$2	0x07bf54…
04-30 16:30:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Down	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x45160e…
04-30 16:27:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Down	SELL	5	80¢	$4	0x89ff4c…
04-30 16:26:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0xc2cbf1…
04-30 16:23:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Down	SELL	5	62¢	$3	0x2c97c5…
04-30 16:20:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Down	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0xf6e48a…
04-30 16:15:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Up	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x33dff1…
04-30 16:10:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Down	BUY	4	57¢	$2	0x29ccb4…
04-30 16:09:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Down	SELL	2	92¢	$2	0xd10a69…
04-30 16:07:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Down	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0xec9836…
04-30 04:16:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Down	SELL	2	61¢	$1	0x994240…
04-30 04:15:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Down	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x7594db…
04-26 12:32:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Down	SELL	2	64¢	$1	0xd6dc85…
04-26 12:30:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Down	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x33fa70…
04-26 12:28:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Down	SELL	1	91¢	$1	0xd84020…
04-26 12:28:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x2de72d…
04-25 18:49:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	SELL	5	6¢	$0	0xc9f054…
04-25 18:46:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x8704dd…
04-25 18:44:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Down	SELL	3	96¢	$3	0x310e0d…
04-25 18:42:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Down	BUY	3	62¢	$2	0x8c29a3…
04-25 18:42:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Up	SELL	3	38¢	$1	0xfb6763…
04-25 18:40:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	3	59¢	$2	0x436f9f…