Vacant-Legacy — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1.32K

Unrealized P&L

+$8

Hit rate

81.0%

Resolved

141

Trades

637

lifetime

Volume

$58.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$92

Open exposure

$153

2 positions

First seen

2026-04-28

last 10-27 19:59

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 67 days

Categories

Other

73% 81% +$947

Politics

19% 77% -$678

Tech

8% 100% +$1,007

Crypto

0% 100% +$48

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

69 active days in 12wk • peak 17 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (25) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $15M?	Yes	—	+100	$86	90¢	$90	+$4	10-26 06:12
Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $10M?	Yes		+65	$59	96¢	$63	+$4	10-27 06:29

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will anthropic ipo by september 30 2026 733	4	$1.8K	1,520	1,520	+0	No	+$807	08-11 07:05
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	7	$1.5K	1,051	1,051	+0	Yes	-$338	09-18 06:00
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National Assembly election?	6	$1.4K	756	756	+0	Yes	+$27	06-08 11:02
Will a new pneumonic plague case be confirmed in Russia by October 31?	8	$1.4K	1,726	0	+1,726	open	—	10-07 16:08
Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	10	$1.4K	960	960	+0	No	-$160	10-09 10:42
Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026?	9	$1.2K	748	748	+0	No	+$200	07-23 06:34
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	3	$1.1K	641	641	+0	No	+$136	07-01 12:02
Serbian Parliamentary Election called before 2027?	7	$1.1K	630	630	+0	Yes	+$198	09-09 15:07
untitled market 1 20260629162014344	7	$1.0K	560	560	+0	No	+$79	07-15 10:40
Will Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) finish second on the party-list vote in Moscow?	1	$991	1,300	0	+1,300	Yes	+$309	09-20 11:14
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642	14	$957	745	745	+0	No	+$235	08-05 12:36
Will Auyl win the second most seats in the 2026 Kazakh Kurultai elections?	3	$934	535	535	+0	Yes	+$134	08-24 20:07
Will Apvienotais Saraksts (AS) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election?	3	$910	494	494	+0	Yes	+$68	10-02 06:03
will there be at least 15000 cyclosporiasis cases in the uptspt by august 31 2026 20260727151618910	2	$896	660	300	+360	Yes	+$56	08-18 06:05
Will the Danube River return to normal levels between September 1 and September 14, 2026?	6	$884	520	520	-0	No	+$155	09-13 12:18
Over $50M committed to the Jumper public sale?	9	$877	572	395	+177	No	+$82	10-04 16:17
Will there be between 35 and 39 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on September 30?	3	$876	650	276	+374	No	+$46	10-06 08:38
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?	3	$805	880	880	+0	Yes	+$5	06-11 22:32
Over $45M committed to the Jumper public sale?	8	$731	855	355	+500	Yes	-$120	10-02 09:01
will turkey rejoin the f 35 program by december 31 2026 20260708215836390	3	$673	434	434	+0	open	—	07-25 02:47
Will there be at least 20,000 cyclosporiasis cases in the U.S. by August 31, 2026?	3	$665	767	0	+767	No	+$103	08-27 13:19
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Bulgaria election?	6	$656	348	348	+0	No	+$38	10-26 06:09
nothing ever happens october 26	7	$647	353	353	+0	open	—	10-14 17:48
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 285M by August 31?	8	$633	468	468	+0	No	+$13	08-18 09:45
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?	3	$629	476	476	+0	open	—	05-14 07:02
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	12	$624	338	338	+0	No	+$37	07-24 20:59
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	2	$600	797	0	+797	Yes	-$600	08-02 21:05
Anthropic IPO closing market cap above $1.75T?	4	$582	426	426	+0	open	—	10-21 06:51
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?	40	$558	301	301	+0	No	+$38	05-31 15:06
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 18 20260715194822043	2	$552	294	294	+0	No	+$12	07-17 15:27

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 19:59:00	Will MSCI downgrade Indonesia to Frontier Market status by November 30?	No	BUY	100	90¢	$90	0x5988a0…
10-27 06:29:26	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $10M?	Yes	BUY	18	90¢	$16	0x12e673…
10-27 06:28:17	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $10M?	Yes	BUY	5	90¢	$5	0x7e9d77…
10-27 06:13:56	Will US crude oil reserves fall to 280M by October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	21	90¢	$19	0x2efa96…
10-26 20:22:09	Will US crude oil reserves fall to 280M by October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	19	93¢	$18	0xa08c25…
10-26 20:21:11	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $10M?	Yes	BUY	42	91¢	$38	0x327ba5…
10-26 12:09:47	Will the Rhine River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	79	31¢	$24	0xbba8ae…
10-26 12:05:15	Will the Rhine River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	98	34¢	$33	0xbec87a…
10-26 08:41:47	Will the Rhine River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	86	77¢	$66	0xeaeb98…
10-26 06:16:53	Will MSCI downgrade Indonesia to Frontier Market status by November 30?	No	BUY	50	90¢	$45	0x1c3e91…
10-26 06:12:51	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $15M?	Yes	BUY	100	86¢	$86	0x9bcd85…
10-26 06:09:14	Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Bulgaria election?	No	SELL	348	100¢	$347	0x6c8331…
10-25 19:50:39	Will 1win launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	120	90¢	$108	0xcee0c8…
10-25 11:31:42	Will the Rhine River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	16	80¢	$13	0x1779a5…
10-25 07:42:33	Will the Rhine River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	246	81¢	$200	0xb1954c…
10-23 21:05:26	Moody's or S&P downgrades France by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	311	96¢	$300	0x8db453…
10-23 20:20:29	Moody's or S&P downgrades France by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	90¢	$4	0x23845a…
10-23 19:54:33	Moody's or S&P downgrades France by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0xc534e3…
10-23 10:58:11	Will Vox win the third-most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	77	89¢	$69	0x0c9181…
10-23 10:57:23	Will 1win launch a token by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	51	91¢	$46	0xb62305…
10-23 06:31:15	Will Vox win the third-most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	51	89¢	$46	0xc0a3a2…
10-23 06:30:32	Will Vox win the third-most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	21	88¢	$18	0xe36808…
10-22 12:41:06	Will 1win launch a token by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	90	90¢	$81	0x9f8b24…
10-22 12:38:11	Will 1win launch a token by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	90¢	$27	0xca6892…
10-22 12:37:21	Will MSCI downgrade Indonesia to Frontier Market status by November 30?	No	BUY	51	89¢	$45	0x7a39bf…
10-22 12:36:24	Will 1win launch a token by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	90	90¢	$81	0xe9a36f…
10-21 06:59:32	Will 1win launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	337	84¢	$283	0x1f1c21…
10-21 06:51:14	Anthropic IPO closing market cap above $1.75T?	Yes	SELL	426	65¢	$277	0x701c1c…
10-15 19:24:20	Will Kostadin Kostadinov win the third-most votes in the first round of the 2026 Bulgaria presidential election?	Yes	BUY	80	88¢	$70	0x070502…
10-15 10:43:35	Will Lockheed Martin (LMT) Q3 total backlog be above $180B?	Yes	BUY	40	85¢	$34	0x2e9432…
10-14 19:21:10	will lockheed martin lmt q3 total backlog be above 20261008120029000 180b	Yes	BUY	40	85¢	$34	0x547842…
10-14 17:48:51	will lockheed martin lmt q3 total backlog be above 20261008120029000 300b	No	BUY	387	77¢	$300	0x080d45…
10-14 17:48:04	nothing ever happens october 26	Nothing	SELL	203	95¢	$193	0x59f10a…
10-14 17:46:49	nothing ever happens october 26	Nothing	SELL	150	95¢	$142	0x402d87…
10-14 07:33:22	will lockheed martin lmt q3 total backlog be above 20261008120029000 180b	Yes	BUY	40	84¢	$33	0x18ca88…
10-14 07:32:28	will lockheed martin lmt q3 total backlog be above 20261008120029000 240b	Yes	SELL	40	38¢	$15	0xebd784…
10-14 07:31:35	will lockheed martin lmt q3 total backlog be above 20261008120029000 240b	Yes	SELL	49	35¢	$17	0xfdb261…
10-13 11:34:50	will lockheed martin lmt q3 total backlog be above 20261008120029000 180b	Yes	BUY	20	83¢	$17	0x5289b2…
10-13 07:56:53	will lockheed martin lmt q3 total backlog be above 20261008120029000 180b	Yes	BUY	40	83¢	$33	0xc845df…
10-13 07:48:38	will lockheed martin lmt q3 total backlog be above 20261008120029000 180b	Yes	BUY	40	88¢	$35	0x4109f3…
10-13 05:44:07	Will Kostadin Kostadinov win the third-most votes in the first round of the 2026 Bulgaria presidential election?	Yes	BUY	20	87¢	$17	0x98e041…
10-13 05:26:51	will lockheed martin lmt q3 total backlog be above 20261008120029000 210b	Yes	BUY	17	81¢	$14	0x4c5636…
10-13 05:26:18	will lockheed martin lmt q3 total backlog be above 20261008120029000 180b	Yes	BUY	35	90¢	$32	0x6fb560…
10-13 05:25:39	Will Andrey Gyurov win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2026 Bulgaria presidential election?	Yes	BUY	21	88¢	$18	0xfc7313…
10-12 21:15:51	Will at least 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	21	89¢	$19	0x642334…
10-12 20:44:33	will lockheed martin lmt q3 total backlog be above 20261008120029000 210b	Yes	BUY	20	90¢	$18	0x44baf1…
10-12 20:44:18	will lockheed martin lmt q3 total backlog be above 20261008120029000 210b	Yes	BUY	20	69¢	$14	0x869aa5…
10-12 20:43:05	will lockheed martin lmt q3 total backlog be above 20261008120029000 240b	Yes	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0x8b5a7d…
10-12 20:42:45	will lockheed martin lmt q3 total backlog be above 20261008120029000 240b	Yes	BUY	20	84¢	$17	0xc773d4…
10-12 20:42:44	will lockheed martin lmt q3 total backlog be above 20261008120029000 240b	Yes	BUY	75	84¢	$63	0x400eb8…
10-12 20:31:39	Will Andrey Gyurov win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2026 Bulgaria presidential election?	Yes	BUY	70	90¢	$63	0xb60c33…
10-12 20:31:38	Will Andrey Gyurov win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2026 Bulgaria presidential election?	Yes	BUY	7	89¢	$7	0xd51cd2…
10-12 20:23:11	Will Andrey Gyurov win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2026 Bulgaria presidential election?	Yes	BUY	58	89¢	$52	0xe026cb…
10-12 20:20:48	spotify monthly active users above in q3 770m	Yes	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x44df2d…
10-12 07:07:55	Will MSCI downgrade Indonesia to Frontier Market status by November 30?	No	BUY	64	91¢	$58	0xf26675…
10-11 06:25:51	Will Grok Bot be available on the free plan by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	88¢	$18	0x6a2320…
10-11 06:21:26	Will Riyadh airport be closed by October 31?	No	SELL	367	6¢	$20	0x304bd9…
10-10 20:14:54	Will Grok Bot be available on the free plan by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	86¢	$17	0x47e15a…
10-10 19:11:24	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at an output token price of at least $60 by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	91	94¢	$86	0xe05540…
10-10 19:10:10	Will OpenAI's frontier output token price be at or above $70 in 2026?	No	SELL	40	96¢	$39	0x810592…
10-10 06:19:39	Russia lifts diesel export ban by October 30?	Yes	BUY	212	86¢	$182	0x76b563…
10-09 21:02:01	Will Grok Bot be available on the free plan by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	59	88¢	$52	0x496298…
10-09 20:11:46	Will Grok Bot be available on the free plan by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	21	89¢	$19	0x112a3f…
10-09 20:02:02	Will Grok Bot be available on the free plan by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	86¢	$17	0xc67b7e…
10-09 17:41:43	Will Putin hold a bilateral meeting with Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedow in Turkmenistan?	No	BUY	145	90¢	$130	0x03ef4c…
10-09 12:12:12	Will Riyadh airport be closed by October 31?	No	BUY	163	82¢	$134	0xb2ac76…
10-09 10:48:43	Will at least 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	119	91¢	$109	0x093f1b…
10-09 10:42:07	Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	404	63¢	$255	0x356657…
10-09 10:41:37	Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	230	63¢	$145	0x2a8df0…
10-09 10:41:03	Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	120	63¢	$76	0x16b2b6…
10-09 10:40:24	Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	80	64¢	$51	0xe4bb02…
10-09 10:27:07	Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	126	62¢	$78	0x1e586c…
10-09 10:24:13	Will Riyadh airport be closed by October 31?	No	BUY	20	78¢	$16	0x1e75ea…
10-09 10:19:27	Will Grok Bot be available on the free plan by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	90¢	$18	0xb566ec…
10-09 10:19:27	Will Grok Bot be available on the free plan by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	62	90¢	$56	0x18e2e3…
10-09 09:21:03	Will Riyadh airport be closed by October 31?	No	BUY	50	85¢	$42	0x3c6a5e…
10-09 06:57:21	Will Riyadh airport be closed by October 31?	No	BUY	346	79¢	$274	0x5b0568…
10-08 07:48:07	Will Putin hold a bilateral meeting with Masoud Pezeshkian in Turkmenistan?	Yes	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0x35dcfa…
10-08 07:45:31	Will Claude Fable 5.2+ debut at an output token price of at least $75 by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	162	92¢	$149	0xa3cc90…
10-08 07:32:04	Will Putin hold a bilateral meeting with Masoud Pezeshkian in Turkmenistan?	Yes	BUY	114	84¢	$96	0x5fcbe9…
10-08 07:22:05	Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11?	No	BUY	100	93¢	$93	0xadab54…
10-08 07:21:26	Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11?	No	BUY	10	93¢	$9	0xc57b9c…
10-08 07:21:26	Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11?	No	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x2feb65…
10-08 07:05:01	Will Putin hold a bilateral meeting with Masoud Pezeshkian in Turkmenistan?	Yes	BUY	15	85¢	$13	0x3b2d8e…
10-08 06:57:44	Will Putin hold a bilateral meeting with Masoud Pezeshkian in Turkmenistan?	Yes	BUY	60	88¢	$53	0xa76bb4…
10-08 06:55:04	Will Putin hold a bilateral meeting with Masoud Pezeshkian in Turkmenistan?	Yes	BUY	150	81¢	$121	0x09a2a5…
10-07 19:52:14	Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	300	96¢	$287	0xeb0625…
10-07 16:08:02	Will a new pneumonic plague case be confirmed in Russia by October 31?	No	BUY	645	84¢	$542	0xdb4441…
10-07 06:19:56	Will a new pneumonic plague case be confirmed in Russia by October 31?	No	BUY	251	79¢	$198	0xa7416e…
10-06 20:30:21	Will a new pneumonic plague case be confirmed in Russia by October 31?	No	BUY	312	80¢	$249	0x1a66b8…
10-06 20:24:42	Will a new pneumonic plague case be confirmed in Russia by October 31?	No	BUY	231	79¢	$182	0x4649a2…
10-06 08:38:52	Will there be between 35 and 39 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on September 30?	No	SELL	276	99¢	$274	0xcdc231…
10-06 08:36:22	Will Grok Bot be available on the free plan by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	85	92¢	$78	0xfce797…
10-04 17:12:44	next confirmed pneumonic plague case in russia 20261003t000000000z will a new pneumonic plague case be confirmed in russia by october 31 2026	No	BUY	103	84¢	$86	0x64bbfc…
10-04 16:17:52	Over $50M committed to the Jumper public sale?	No	SELL	200	99¢	$198	0x30b1a3…
10-04 13:15:52	Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Bulgaria election?	No	BUY	97	90¢	$87	0x31d78e…
10-04 13:15:05	Over $50M committed to the Jumper public sale?	No	SELL	90	99¢	$89	0x0f2c1a…
10-04 05:21:11	Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Bulgaria election?	No	BUY	12	86¢	$10	0x7f093e…
10-04 05:18:31	next confirmed pneumonic plague case in russia 20261003t000000000z will a new pneumonic plague case be confirmed in russia by october 31 2026	No	BUY	68	86¢	$58	0x638827…
10-03 20:31:22	Will a new pneumonic plague case be confirmed in Russia by October 31?	No	BUY	36	80¢	$29	0x5dacab…