Ecstatic-Bucket — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$122

Unrealized P&L

-$2

Hit rate

73.6%

Resolved

Trades

520

lifetime

Volume

$3.41K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$10

2 positions

First seen

2026-03-20

last 09-21 00:10

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 26 days

Categories

Sports

55% 67% -$124

Crypto

27% 80% -$12

Politics

9% 18% +$57

Other

6% 33% -$14

Tech

3% 0% -$28

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

11 active days in 12wk • peak 6 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No		+11	$6	44¢	$5	-$1	09-21 00:10
Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No		+16	$6	29¢	$4	-$1	09-02 12:11

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
nba lal det 2026 03 23	36	$475	472	472	+0	Pistons	+$55	03-23 23:59
nba gsw atl 2026 03 21	21	$249	571	417	+154	Hawks	+$9	03-22 00:41
nba tor uta 2026 03 23 spread away 10pt5	39	$234	425	0	+425	Raptors	-$234	03-24 00:35
nba tor phx 2026 03 22 spread away 3pt5	17	$220	196	196	+0	Suns	+$28	03-23 01:47
nba was nyk 2026 03 22 spread home 20pt5	18	$218	227	227	+0	Knicks	+$14	03-23 00:18
nba bkn sac 2026 03 22 spread home 4pt5	16	$189	209	209	+0	Nets	+$9	03-22 23:27
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	6	$159	231	231	+0	Yes	+$104	04-07 21:57
megaeth market cap fdv 1pt5b one day after launch 371 844 879 681	25	$123	130	57	+72	Yes	+$54	05-01 09:58
nba lal det 2026 03 23 spread away 1pt5	6	$78	64	64	+0	Pistons	+$18	03-24 00:23
nba bkn sac 2026 03 22 spread home 6pt5	8	$75	84	84	+0	Nets	-$9	03-23 00:18
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-23 07:00 UTC	7	$72	36	36	+0	Down	+$1	03-23 07:06
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	25	$68	70	70	+0	No	-$4	06-12 16:04
nba tor uta 2026 03 23 spread away 11pt5	9	$54	93	0	+93	Raptors	-$54	03-24 00:35
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-22 01:35 UTC	5	$49	25	25	+0	Down	+$1	03-22 01:40
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-22 00:50 UTC	5	$48	24	24	+0	Down	+$0	03-22 00:55
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-23 00:30 UTC	3	$48	12	36	-24	Down	+$0	03-23 00:36
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-22 12:15 UTC	5	$48	24	24	+0	Up	+$0	03-22 12:21
nba tor phx 2026 03 22 spread away 2pt5	8	$48	107	0	+107	Suns	+$59	03-23 00:41
Over $40M committed to the Printr public sale?	10	$47	49	61	-11	No	-$1	04-28 22:25
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	7	$43	141	141	+0	Yes	-$1	04-07 23:09
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	5	$39	65	65	+0	No	-$7	05-19 10:44
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-22 08:35 UTC	4	$36	18	18	+0	Up	+$0	03-22 08:41
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-23 05:55 UTC	4	$36	18	18	+0	Up	+$0	03-23 06:00
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-22 11:20 UTC	6	$36	37	0	+37	Up	+$2	03-22 11:23
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-22 13:00 UTC	6	$35	37	0	+37	Up	+$1	03-22 13:02
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?	6	$34	58	9	+49	No	-$24	06-12 19:22
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	5	$33	110	110	+0	No	+$1	05-31 13:56
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-22 08:15 UTC	3	$30	12	18	-6	Down	+$0	03-22 08:21
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-24 00:15 UTC	5	$30	33	0	+33	Up	-$30	03-24 00:17
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	5	$28	122	0	+122	No	-$28	07-15 13:16

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-21 00:10:59	Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	SELL	0	39¢	$0	0x03ad79…
09-20 14:35:55	Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	SELL	1	39¢	$0	0xcfe71e…
09-20 06:43:33	Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	SELL	2	39¢	$1	0xc029fd…
09-20 05:43:27	Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	SELL	0	39¢	$0	0xcc51d4…
09-20 04:41:34	Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	SELL	0	39¢	$0	0x2d9bda…
09-20 01:39:55	Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	SELL	0	39¢	$0	0x611d20…
09-20 00:50:37	Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	SELL	0	39¢	$0	0xb0e58b…
09-19 20:14:36	Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	SELL	0	39¢	$0	0xd31b9c…
09-19 20:13:35	Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	SELL	0	37¢	$0	0x860836…
09-19 20:13:33	Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	SELL	4	36¢	$1	0xa5adc0…
09-19 06:41:18	Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	SELL	0	37¢	$0	0x67e53f…
09-19 04:14:04	Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	SELL	0	39¢	$0	0x54b33e…
09-18 16:29:13	Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	SELL	0	39¢	$0	0x67454e…
09-17 22:12:54	Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	SELL	1	38¢	$0	0xc767df…
09-16 14:32:36	will warsh say trump during september press conference 20260909	Yes	BUY	43	14¢	$6	0x6e2119…
09-16 02:53:51	Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	SELL	0	39¢	$0	0x6e50d2…
09-15 23:55:49	Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	SELL	0	39¢	$0	0x5e85c4…
09-13 11:17:10	Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	SELL	0	43¢	$0	0x9dfef3…
09-13 10:15:30	Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	SELL	0	43¢	$0	0x77e1b5…
09-13 09:44:58	Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	SELL	5	43¢	$2	0x896948…
09-12 17:05:03	Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	BUY	13	45¢	$6	0xc574d6…
09-04 19:29:15	Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	BUY	13	45¢	$6	0xb4c66c…
09-02 12:11:01	Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	BUY	16	38¢	$6	0xbaf48c…
08-01 15:54:59	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 1	No	BUY	57	8¢	$5	0x2675ef…
07-15 13:16:46	Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	24	23¢	$6	0x2db0ab…
07-15 12:54:34	Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	24	23¢	$6	0x63dc52…
07-15 12:37:01	Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	24	23¢	$6	0x4b5496…
07-15 12:31:50	Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	24	23¢	$6	0x96c495…
07-15 12:31:08	Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	24	23¢	$6	0x5a98a0…
06-12 19:22:21	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?	Yes	BUY	21	27¢	$6	0xe2132e…
06-12 16:52:06	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?	Yes	SELL	9	57¢	$5	0x0f3c76…
06-12 16:04:19	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	Yes	SELL	4	7¢	$0	0x51b630…
06-12 15:58:18	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	Yes	SELL	4	20¢	$1	0x399d18…
06-12 14:33:46	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	Yes	SELL	2	27¢	$1	0xf9ff3b…
06-12 14:24:04	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	Yes	SELL	1	34¢	$0	0x7e9b23…
06-12 14:21:51	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	Yes	SELL	4	34¢	$1	0xd42c8f…
06-12 14:08:13	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	Yes	SELL	0	36¢	$0	0x79b91e…
06-04 13:29:00	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?	Yes	BUY	9	63¢	$6	0x621ca0…
06-04 13:06:43	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?	Yes	BUY	9	63¢	$6	0xc796af…
06-04 12:55:37	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?	Yes	BUY	9	63¢	$6	0x8c7f4e…
06-04 12:10:27	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?	Yes	BUY	9	63¢	$6	0x7f9b60…
06-03 12:58:37	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	Yes	BUY	15	39¢	$6	0xeb3118…
06-02 23:34:51	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	No	SELL	51	52¢	$27	0x2d11f8…
06-02 23:31:28	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	No	SELL	0	50¢	$0	0xde712b…
06-02 23:29:29	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	No	SELL	0	50¢	$0	0xc7918c…
06-02 22:46:45	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	No	SELL	0	50¢	$0	0x158bdd…
06-02 20:58:17	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	No	SELL	0	50¢	$0	0x6a38cb…
06-02 20:57:05	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	No	SELL	2	50¢	$1	0xc523fc…
06-02 20:37:57	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	No	SELL	1	50¢	$0	0x584700…
06-02 20:34:30	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	No	SELL	0	50¢	$0	0x9672b7…
06-02 20:32:59	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	No	SELL	0	50¢	$0	0xb5e872…
06-02 20:09:59	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	No	SELL	0	50¢	$0	0x5fcc64…
06-02 20:07:23	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	No	SELL	0	50¢	$0	0x688f1e…
06-02 20:05:50	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	No	SELL	0	50¢	$0	0x032a1f…
06-02 19:57:26	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	No	SELL	0	50¢	$0	0x9aa2ee…
05-31 15:22:32	Will Poland win on 2026-05-31?	Yes	BUY	11	54¢	$6	0xdf4999…
05-31 13:56:42	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	8¢	$8	0xd96bf6…
05-28 09:02:04	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	46	11¢	$5	0x84881e…
05-28 08:51:41	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	54	9¢	$5	0x92c1f0…
05-28 08:41:44	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	10	92¢	$9	0xb17f85…
05-23 14:35:54	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	No	BUY	63	8¢	$5	0xfdcaaf…
05-23 07:34:30	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?	No	SELL	9	49¢	$4	0xb827e7…
05-22 21:49:18	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?	No	BUY	9	66¢	$6	0x58ca35…
05-22 18:41:00	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	84	9¢	$8	0x2d530b…
05-22 01:16:46	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	11	50¢	$6	0x6bd22d…
05-22 00:29:31	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	11	51¢	$6	0x10dc8e…
05-21 23:08:47	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	11	51¢	$6	0x972782…
05-21 17:58:36	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	Yes	SELL	729	0¢	$4	0xc29f68…
05-20 02:17:33	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	Yes	BUY	188	1¢	$2	0x223a82…
05-19 22:04:34	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	Yes	BUY	188	1¢	$3	0xa4cca2…
05-19 17:04:12	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	Yes	BUY	43	14¢	$6	0xe02494…
05-19 11:27:42	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	SELL	208	4¢	$8	0x71bb2a…
05-19 10:44:43	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	SELL	65	25¢	$16	0x502d52…
05-18 19:58:50	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	No	BUY	11	55¢	$6	0x84f711…
05-18 19:25:07	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	No	BUY	11	55¢	$6	0xbbc7ac…
05-18 19:24:30	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	No	BUY	11	55¢	$6	0x6c84f6…
05-18 16:46:55	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	No	BUY	11	55¢	$6	0xf9e2f5…
05-18 16:44:33	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	No	BUY	11	55¢	$6	0x0d8bad…
05-18 13:28:09	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	17	35¢	$6	0xe3a91a…
05-18 13:18:16	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	16	36¢	$6	0x0abe41…
05-18 12:46:02	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	Yes	BUY	167	2¢	$2	0xfe841a…
05-18 09:57:15	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	67	7¢	$5	0xe28436…
05-18 09:35:41	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	84	5¢	$4	0xec8bd9…
05-18 09:33:06	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	Yes	BUY	188	1¢	$2	0x0a7837…
05-18 09:13:52	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	16	35¢	$6	0x227fd3…
05-18 09:12:13	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	16	36¢	$6	0xa77afb…
05-18 09:00:12	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	67	8¢	$5	0x03a4d0…
05-18 08:58:46	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	75	7¢	$5	0xf9bfdf…
05-13 14:56:21	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	59¢	$6	0xe586ec…
05-01 09:58:28	megaeth market cap fdv 1pt5b one day after launch 371 844 879 681	Yes	SELL	2	91¢	$2	0x0d26a3…
05-01 09:47:12	megaeth market cap fdv 1pt5b one day after launch 371 844 879 681	Yes	SELL	0	91¢	$0	0xa6cac5…
05-01 09:46:34	megaeth market cap fdv 1pt5b one day after launch 371 844 879 681	Yes	SELL	12	93¢	$11	0x66dabc…
05-01 09:46:08	megaeth market cap fdv 1pt5b one day after launch 371 844 879 681	Yes	SELL	0	93¢	$0	0x433c1c…
05-01 09:46:08	megaeth market cap fdv 1pt5b one day after launch 371 844 879 681	Yes	SELL	2	93¢	$1	0x29a1e3…
05-01 09:46:04	megaeth market cap fdv 1pt5b one day after launch 371 844 879 681	Yes	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0xe0da14…
05-01 09:45:52	megaeth market cap fdv 1pt5b one day after launch 371 844 879 681	Yes	SELL	25	92¢	$23	0xd94dc9…
05-01 09:45:30	megaeth market cap fdv 1pt5b one day after launch 371 844 879 681	Yes	SELL	0	92¢	$0	0x35cea2…
05-01 09:43:54	megaeth market cap fdv 1pt5b one day after launch 371 844 879 681	Yes	SELL	1	89¢	$1	0xfbf326…
05-01 09:43:40	megaeth market cap fdv 1pt5b one day after launch 371 844 879 681	Yes	SELL	1	89¢	$1	0x58308d…
05-01 09:43:34	megaeth market cap fdv 1pt5b one day after launch 371 844 879 681	Yes	SELL	2	89¢	$2	0xa4c93c…