Novel-Special — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$319

Unrealized P&L

+$3

Hit rate

97.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$28.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$313

Open exposure

$21

3 positions

First seen

2026-03-01

last 10-15 04:03

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 27 days

Categories

Politics

64% 50% $0

Crypto

20% 100% +$21

Other

16% 85% +$297

Tech

0% 100% +$0

Sports

0% 100% +$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 1 trade/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (20) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Tom Cotton win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	+21	$21	100¢	$21	$0	10-15 04:03
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	+0	-$1	99¢	$0	+$1	05-10 05:57
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	+0	-$1	100¢	$0	+$1	07-14 21:32

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	6	$3.6K	1,817	1,817	+0	open	—	07-17 04:33
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	4	$2.8K	1,413	1,413	+0	open	—	06-19 22:03
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	13	$2.6K	1,309	1,309	+0	open	—	07-14 21:32
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	3	$2.5K	1,256	1,256	+0	open	—	06-08 01:33
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	2	$2.4K	1,225	1,225	+0	open	—	06-08 07:38
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	11	$2.4K	1,232	1,232	+0	open	—	05-10 05:57
will xrp reach 3 in march 2026	1	$2.3K	2,312	0	+2,312	No	+$14	03-12 16:02
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	2	$2.0K	1,017	1,017	+0	open	—	05-16 03:36
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May?	1	$1.6K	1,577	0	+1,577	No	+$3	05-16 05:18
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April?	1	$1.2K	1,212	0	+1,212	No	+$1	04-21 02:34
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	1	$1.1K	1,123	0	+1,123	No	+$1	04-21 02:34
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	5	$952	515	515	+0	open	—	05-17 10:28
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	3	$897	856	43	+813	No	+$2	05-27 02:30
will xrp reach 3 in july 2026	1	$500	503	0	+503	No	+$3	07-17 05:49
lol wb tes 2026 03 02	1	$317	610	0	+610	Weibo Gaming	+$293	03-01 14:44
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	2	$285	144	144	+0	No	+$0	05-18 18:24
elon musk of tweets february 27 march 6 420 439	1	$212	212	0	+212	No	+$0	03-03 16:08
elon musk of tweets march 16 march 18 140 164	1	$144	144	0	+144	No	+$0	03-18 11:42
new stranger things episode released by march 15 276 499 374 933 589 784	2	$131	66	66	+0	No	$0	03-03 16:07
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026?	1	$122	122	0	+122	No	+$0	04-21 02:33
Anthropic IPO before 2027?	3	$89	54	54	+0	open	—	08-17 13:22
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	2	$82	42	42	+0	No	$0	06-04 09:04
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election?	2	$67	34	34	+0	open	—	05-13 07:27
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League?	2	$56	28	28	+0	No	+$0	03-12 16:01
Opinion FDV above $3B one day after launch?	1	$51	51	0	+51	No	+$0	03-03 16:10
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $315 in May?	1	$45	45	0	+45	No	+$0	05-27 02:30
nothing ever happens microstrategy	2	$41	23	23	+0	No	-$1	03-03 16:07
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	1	$31	31	0	+31	No	+$0	06-16 02:47
will trn cm t be the next president of vietnam	2	$28	14	14	+0	No	$0	03-18 11:42
highest temperature in chicago on march 14 2026 31forbelow	1	$23	23	0	+23	No	+$0	03-12 16:04

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-15 04:03:22	Will Tom Cotton win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x2ea485…
09-29 06:14:14	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	Yes	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x4b77b3…
08-24 11:59:48	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in August?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x6d9013…
08-17 13:22:25	Anthropic IPO before 2027?	Yes	SELL	2	85¢	$2	0xc0f85e…
08-17 09:56:00	Anthropic IPO before 2027?	Yes	SELL	52	85¢	$44	0x7ef396…
07-17 05:49:31	will xrp reach 3 in july 2026	No	BUY	503	100¢	$500	0xe90e8e…
07-17 04:33:36	Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	SELL	809	99¢	$802	0x806cd5…
07-14 21:32:25	Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	SELL	35	99¢	$35	0xcebb19…
07-14 21:08:50	Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	SELL	200	99¢	$198	0x3b5e8e…
07-14 20:46:55	Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0xd58d68…
07-14 20:00:19	Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	SELL	180	99¢	$179	0xbeef0d…
07-14 19:31:13	Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	SELL	190	99¢	$188	0xe197b1…
07-14 19:06:32	Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	SELL	25	99¢	$25	0x4dff68…
07-14 18:14:20	Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	SELL	180	99¢	$179	0x50fefb…
07-14 18:10:17	Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	SELL	34	99¢	$34	0xf5ca32…
07-14 18:10:11	Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0xe209a8…
07-14 18:06:14	Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	SELL	19	99¢	$19	0xba3569…
07-14 17:47:29	Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	SELL	190	99¢	$188	0x26902a…
07-14 17:44:38	Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	SELL	252	99¢	$250	0x8d64c6…
07-08 12:54:13	Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	BUY	769	99¢	$759	0x14b4fb…
07-08 08:03:52	Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x386ef8…
07-08 08:03:23	Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x5049a7…
07-07 10:07:53	Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	6	97¢	$6	0x09b1b9…
07-07 10:07:02	Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	BUY	1,309	99¢	$1,297	0x7aa90f…
07-07 10:06:02	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x265fcb…
07-07 10:05:49	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 7 20260630014219997 185	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xf64d62…
06-19 22:03:22	Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	309	98¢	$305	0x2d1181…
06-19 17:08:13	Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	114	99¢	$112	0xd2dc05…
06-19 11:55:23	Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	990	99¢	$975	0xe09e3e…
06-18 17:47:41	Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	SELL	1,008	98¢	$992	0x674c29…
06-16 02:49:28	Anthropic IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	54	80¢	$43	0xbf22fc…
06-16 02:47:43	Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	No	BUY	31	99¢	$31	0x1c71ff…
06-16 02:47:12	Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	BUY	1,413	98¢	$1,390	0x5ebb08…
06-16 02:45:01	Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	BUY	1,008	98¢	$991	0x575954…
06-08 07:38:45	Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	1,225	99¢	$1,216	0x9fbb57…
06-08 01:33:10	Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	296	99¢	$293	0x746424…
06-07 23:27:49	Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	961	99¢	$953	0x427871…
06-04 11:56:42	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T?	Yes	BUY	6	98¢	$6	0x815211…
06-04 09:20:58	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T?	Yes	BUY	3	98¢	$3	0xe04c28…
06-04 09:06:12	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T?	Yes	BUY	14	98¢	$13	0x68e89a…
06-04 09:05:43	Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	BUY	1,225	99¢	$1,215	0xde1ff0…
06-04 09:05:27	Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	BUY	1,256	99¢	$1,245	0xa6e516…
06-04 09:04:03	Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	42	98¢	$41	0x428bf4…
05-27 02:30:40	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $315 in May?	No	BUY	45	100¢	$45	0xd2a122…
05-27 02:30:06	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	No	SELL	43	100¢	$43	0x6adef9…
05-26 09:33:36	Will the highest temperature in Denver be 55°F or below on May 27?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xe8c7b2…
05-26 09:33:05	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	No	BUY	755	100¢	$754	0x165bac…
05-18 18:24:13	Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	SELL	144	99¢	$143	0xcbeb11…
05-17 10:28:30	Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	SELL	52	93¢	$48	0x5fcfe2…
05-17 10:27:32	Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	SELL	54	93¢	$50	0x401c40…
05-17 02:42:07	Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	SELL	108	93¢	$100	0xc38794…
05-16 16:47:49	Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	SELL	301	93¢	$280	0x6d3895…
05-16 05:19:22	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0xa3aefe…
05-16 05:18:54	Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May?	No	BUY	1,577	100¢	$1,574	0x3edc4c…
05-16 05:17:30	Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	144	99¢	$143	0x09ed5b…
05-16 05:14:19	Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	BUY	515	92¢	$474	0x74488b…
05-16 05:13:30	Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	42	99¢	$41	0x62c3db…
05-16 03:36:18	Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	SELL	1,017	99¢	$1,006	0x3be57c…
05-13 07:27:18	Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	34	99¢	$34	0xefb7f9…
05-10 05:57:41	Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x6cee90…
05-10 05:28:12	Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	SELL	90	98¢	$88	0xebde7a…
05-10 04:56:07	Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	SELL	198	98¢	$195	0x61c38f…
05-10 04:49:43	Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	SELL	134	98¢	$132	0xe2a8dd…
05-10 04:38:38	Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	SELL	74	98¢	$73	0x993a63…
05-10 03:50:17	Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	SELL	215	98¢	$211	0x26b637…
05-10 03:19:45	Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	SELL	177	98¢	$174	0x013adf…
05-10 02:35:46	Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	SELL	37	98¢	$36	0x795668…
05-10 00:57:51	Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	SELL	148	98¢	$145	0xb88c8f…
05-10 00:57:19	Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	SELL	155	98¢	$152	0x5b7dfa…
05-06 13:57:30	Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	34	99¢	$34	0xe36a85…
05-06 13:56:48	Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	BUY	1,232	98¢	$1,210	0xeb9f0a…
05-06 13:56:16	Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	BUY	1,017	99¢	$1,007	0x3ad093…
05-06 13:55:44	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	No	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0x6ed822…
04-21 02:35:00	Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x52d0ea…
04-21 02:34:46	Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April?	No	BUY	1,212	100¢	$1,211	0xecee7c…
04-21 02:34:24	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	1,123	100¢	$1,122	0xd5b1c6…
04-21 02:33:52	Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	122	100¢	$122	0x067268…
03-24 15:23:47	will google have the third best ai model at the end of march 2026	Yes	BUY	16	91¢	$15	0x1aad14…
03-18 11:42:21	elon musk of tweets march 16 march 18 140 164	No	BUY	144	100¢	$144	0xfcfe15…
03-18 11:42:07	will trn cm t be the next president of vietnam	No	SELL	14	99¢	$14	0x6c789d…
03-12 16:04:07	highest temperature in chicago on march 14 2026 31forbelow	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x38291b…
03-12 16:02:47	will xrp reach 3 in march 2026	No	BUY	2,312	99¢	$2,298	0x9c28ee…
03-12 16:01:41	Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	SELL	28	100¢	$28	0x32e54b…
03-03 16:10:43	Opinion FDV above $3B one day after launch?	No	BUY	51	100¢	$51	0xf3247e…
03-03 16:10:11	will trn cm t be the next president of vietnam	No	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0x687429…
03-03 16:08:51	Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	BUY	28	98¢	$28	0x032217…
03-03 16:08:01	elon musk of tweets february 27 march 6 420 439	No	BUY	212	100¢	$212	0xcdfff7…
03-03 16:07:15	nothing ever happens microstrategy	Yes	SELL	23	86¢	$20	0x62be42…
03-03 16:07:11	new stranger things episode released by march 15 276 499 374 933 589 784	No	SELL	66	99¢	$66	0x1c9ae2…
03-01 14:46:37	new stranger things episode released by march 15 276 499 374 933 589 784	No	BUY	66	100¢	$66	0x936150…
03-01 14:44:21	lol wb tes 2026 03 02	Weibo Gaming	BUY	610	52¢	$317	0x5d0803…
03-01 14:40:49	nothing ever happens microstrategy	Yes	BUY	23	92¢	$21	0x5d2795…