Puzzling-Raffle — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$30

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

99.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$3.61K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$75

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-07

last 10-06 06:00

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 29 days

Categories

Other

78% 94% -$29

Politics

20% 89% +$2

Crypto

2% 33% -$3

Tech

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
elon musk of tweets april 10 april 17 240 259	1	$202	203	+203	No	+$1	04-16 03:55
elon musk of tweets april 3 april 10 200 219	1	$201	201	+201	No	+$0	04-09 08:35
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026?	1	$200	200	+200	No	+$0	04-26 06:48
will the us next strike iran on february 13 2026 et	1	$199	200	+200	No	+$0	02-14 06:34
elon musk of tweets january 6 january 13 140 159	1	$199	199	+199	No	+$0	01-07 02:02
elon musk of tweets january 27 february 3 300 319	1	$198	199	+199	No	+$0	02-02 07:22
will the us next strike iran on february 10 2026 et	1	$197	199	+199	No	+$2	02-10 07:31
elon musk of tweets march 2026 1080 1119	1	$197	197	+197	No	+$0	03-24 08:20
elon musk of tweets march 17 march 24 140 159	1	$197	197	+197	No	+$0	03-19 08:33
will alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on january 31	1	$189	189	+189	No	+$0	01-30 08:05
elon musk of tweets january 23 january 30 140 159	1	$189	189	+189	No	+$0	01-25 09:05
elon musk of tweets january 16 january 23 300 319	1	$189	189	+189	No	+$0	01-21 06:36
elon musk of tweets january 13 january 20 300 319	1	$188	188	+188	No	+$0	01-16 07:10
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?	1	$165	165	+165	No	+$0	05-31 07:59
elon musk of tweets march 3 march 10 120 139	1	$150	150	+150	No	+$0	03-06 07:08
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	1	$113	113	+113	No	+$0	05-05 11:35
elon musk of tweets april 20 april 22 190 214	1	$102	102	+102	No	+$0	04-21 03:37
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	1	$100	100	+100	Yes	+$0	03-11 11:27
elon musk of tweets april 14 april 21 300 319	1	$100	100	+100	No	+$0	04-21 03:37
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	1	$95	95	+95	Yes	+$0	03-11 11:26
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 5?	1	$86	86	+86	Yes	+$0	05-05 11:21
elon musk of tweets march 6 march 13 60 79	1	$45	45	+45	No	+$0	03-06 07:08
Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in May 2026?	3	$32	6,551	+6,551	No	-$31	05-31 07:52
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	1	$15	15	+15	No	+$0	07-19 12:32
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	1	$15	15	+15	No	+$0	09-10 13:08
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by August 31?	1	$15	15	+15	No	+$0	08-28 08:29
Will Miloš Vučević be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	1	$13	13	+13	open	—	10-06 06:00
will nvidia be the third largest company in the world by market cap on march 31	1	$3	3	+3	No	+$0	03-11 11:27
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on May 6?	1	$2	900	+900	No	-$2	05-05 11:22
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15?	1	$2	2	+2	Yes	-$2	10-06 05:59

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-06 06:00:07	Will Miloš Vučević be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xbf18fe…
10-06 05:59:33	Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15?	No	BUY	2	78¢	$2	0x40a2b5…
09-10 13:08:58	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x844f3b…
08-28 08:29:48	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by August 31?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x2f73d7…
07-19 12:32:48	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x39cfbc…
05-31 07:59:03	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?	No	BUY	165	100¢	$165	0x4c73b6…
05-31 07:53:26	Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on May 31?	Yes	BUY	360	0¢	$1	0x2ab64b…
05-31 07:52:59	Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in May 2026?	Yes	BUY	6,142	0¢	$19	0xd23801…
05-31 07:52:59	Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in May 2026?	Yes	BUY	409	3¢	$12	0x00a447…
05-31 07:52:16	Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in May 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xd7d531…
05-05 11:35:12	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	No	BUY	113	100¢	$113	0x2f1fbf…
05-05 11:22:56	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on May 6?	Yes	BUY	900	0¢	$2	0xa7df01…
05-05 11:21:40	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 5?	Yes	BUY	86	100¢	$86	0x09f336…
04-26 06:48:16	Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026?	No	BUY	200	100¢	$200	0x9575a8…
04-21 03:37:24	elon musk of tweets april 20 april 22 190 214	No	BUY	102	100¢	$102	0xb1cf6c…
04-21 03:37:14	elon musk of tweets april 14 april 21 300 319	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xa57696…
04-16 03:55:36	elon musk of tweets april 10 april 17 240 259	No	BUY	203	100¢	$202	0x20776c…
04-09 08:35:03	elon musk of tweets april 3 april 10 200 219	No	BUY	201	100¢	$201	0x486e8c…
03-24 08:20:17	elon musk of tweets march 2026 1080 1119	No	BUY	197	100¢	$197	0xa586be…
03-19 08:33:01	elon musk of tweets march 17 march 24 140 159	No	BUY	197	100¢	$197	0xb481e1…
03-11 11:27:11	will nvidia be the third largest company in the world by market cap on march 31	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xe7c019…
03-11 11:27:03	Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	Yes	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x259d41…
03-11 11:26:57	Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	Yes	BUY	95	100¢	$95	0x1175e1…
03-06 07:09:07	will the fed decrease interest rates by 50 bps after the march 2026 meeting	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x33fcf2…
03-06 07:09:01	will the us invade venezuela by march 31 2026 255	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x0434ae…
03-06 07:08:37	will israel strike gaza on march 3 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x201fba…
03-06 07:08:27	will us or israel strike iran on march 7 2026	Yes	BUY	2	99¢	$1	0x36883b…
03-06 07:08:17	elon musk of tweets march 6 march 13 60 79	No	BUY	45	100¢	$45	0x3750ce…
03-06 07:08:11	elon musk of tweets march 3 march 10 120 139	No	BUY	150	100¢	$150	0x1cd8b4…
02-14 06:34:41	will the us next strike iran on february 13 2026 et	No	BUY	200	100¢	$199	0x3ea3db…
02-10 07:31:53	will the us next strike iran on february 10 2026 et	No	BUY	199	99¢	$197	0xd89b46…
02-10 07:27:05	will israel strike lebanon on february 8 2026	Yes	BUY	260	0¢	$1	0x9a73e6…
02-02 07:22:50	elon musk of tweets january 27 february 3 300 319	No	BUY	199	100¢	$198	0xad83cf…
01-30 08:05:04	will alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on january 31	No	BUY	189	100¢	$189	0x1aa20b…
01-25 09:05:40	elon musk of tweets january 23 january 30 140 159	No	BUY	189	100¢	$189	0xc2784f…
01-21 06:36:50	elon musk of tweets january 16 january 23 300 319	No	BUY	189	100¢	$189	0xc37fd7…
01-16 07:10:52	elon musk of tweets january 13 january 20 300 319	No	BUY	188	100¢	$188	0xc6e30c…
01-16 07:10:44	will meituan have the top ai model at the end of january 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x1d7351…
01-16 07:10:38	will moonshot have the top ai model at the end of january 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x14b4be…
01-16 07:10:34	will zai have the top ai model at the end of january 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x2bfd95…
01-16 07:10:24	will alibaba have the best ai model at the end of january 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x483785…
01-16 07:10:18	will baidu have the best ai model at the end of january 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x15e727…
01-16 07:10:04	will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x26e2c4…
01-16 07:09:56	will googl dip to 215 in january	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x6ac1a9…
01-16 07:09:50	will googl reach 420 in january	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x3d8900…
01-16 07:09:36	will israel strike lebanon on january 14 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x78558d…
01-16 07:09:28	si hit 25 low jan 2026 271 644 727	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x24a8d2…
01-07 02:02:13	elon musk of tweets january 6 january 13 140 159	No	BUY	199	100¢	$199	0x5cd88a…