Frequent-Government — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.82K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

82.3%

Resolved

Trades

104

lifetime

Volume

$56.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$541

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-02

last 08-22 12:43

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 37 days

Categories

Politics

59% 93% -$1,963

Other

36% 87% +$189

Crypto

4% 33% -$61

Tech

1% 100% +$4

Sports

0% 100% +$14

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

2 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	14	$4.4K	2,195	2,195	+0	Yes	+$4	05-25 03:50
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	2	$3.8K	1,923	1,923	+0	Yes	+$0	05-13 22:44
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	2	$3.7K	1,858	1,858	+0	No	-$2	07-17 09:50
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	5	$3.3K	1,652	1,652	-0	Yes	+$6	06-01 12:27
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	1	$2.3K	2,278	0	+2,278	No	+$7	07-02 01:37
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 5 9144	1	$2.2K	2,224	0	+2,224	No	+$4	06-06 01:05
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	1	$2.2K	2,220	0	+2,220	No	+$2	06-01 17:05
Will Bahrain vs. Syria end in a draw?	1	$2.2K	2,244	0	+2,244	Yes	+$34	06-08 09:21
Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	3	$2.0K	2,003	0	+2,003	No	+$10	05-19 14:54
Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	3	$2.0K	1,993	0	+1,993	No	+$8	05-19 01:57
Will Figure's F.03 robots run between 100 and 200 hours without failure?	1	$2.0K	1,985	0	+1,985	Yes	+$4	05-18 08:25
us x iran ceasefire continues through august 31	1	$1.9K	2,207	0	+2,207	No	-$1,920	08-22 12:43
iran full airspace closure by august 15	3	$1.9K	1,920	0	+1,920	No	+$8	08-15 17:20
will trump speak to emmanuel macron in july 20260626154217431	1	$1.9K	1,911	0	+1,911	No	+$8	08-04 04:44
will donald trump publicly insult vladimir putin by july 31 2026 20260626210612715	1	$1.9K	1,904	0	+1,904	No	+$4	08-01 03:27
Will Carlos Vila Nova win the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential elections?	1	$1.9K	1,900	0	+1,900	Yes	+$2	07-21 02:34
over 30m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325652	1	$1.9K	1,895	0	+1,895	Yes	+$44	07-17 10:02
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	2	$1.8K	1,763	0	+1,763	No	+$9	06-08 00:47
will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by april 23 2026	2	$1.3K	1,306	0	+1,306	No	+$3	04-24 05:16
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	1	$1.2K	1,182	0	+1,182	No	+$31	05-22 08:20
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	1	$1.0K	1,151	0	+1,151	No	+$150	05-21 18:20
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	4	$1.0K	1,006	0	+1,006	No	+$5	05-20 12:41
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026?	1	$969	1,000	0	+1,000	No	+$31	05-13 22:45
iran successfully targets shipping on july 10	1	$891	900	0	+900	No	+$9	07-12 02:00
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	1	$564	567	0	+567	No	+$3	05-28 04:56
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	1	$548	564	0	+564	No	+$16	05-25 04:28
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	3	$501	506	0	+506	No	+$5	05-01 00:31
us x iran meeting by april 10 2026 895	3	$488	573	0	+573	No	+$85	04-13 02:28
trump announces us x iran ceasefire end by april 12 2026	2	$488	494	0	+494	No	+$6	04-13 02:38
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 7 265 824 655 577 216	2	$445	449	0	+449	No	+$4	06-07 19:53

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-22 12:43:12	us x iran ceasefire continues through august 31	Yes	BUY	2,207	87¢	$1,920	0xe03939…
08-15 17:20:00	iran full airspace closure by august 15	No	BUY	558	100¢	$556	0xf0a03c…
08-15 14:54:37	iran full airspace closure by august 15	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x16a104…
08-15 00:27:34	iran full airspace closure by august 15	No	BUY	1,357	100¢	$1,352	0xbabccf…
08-07 12:46:45	israel agrees to board of peace gaza plan by august 7 20260731224133050	No	BUY	80	99¢	$80	0x3fdf23…
08-04 04:44:39	will trump speak to emmanuel macron in july 20260626154217431	No	BUY	1,911	100¢	$1,904	0xc46150…
08-01 03:27:42	will donald trump publicly insult vladimir putin by july 31 2026 20260626210612715	No	BUY	1,904	100¢	$1,900	0xcd1ea4…
07-21 02:34:25	Will Carlos Vila Nova win the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential elections?	Yes	BUY	1,900	100¢	$1,898	0xc4cf66…
07-17 10:02:10	over 30m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325652	Yes	BUY	1,895	98¢	$1,852	0x442513…
07-17 09:50:27	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	SELL	1,858	100¢	$1,855	0xac66ae…
07-15 03:07:43	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	1,858	100¢	$1,856	0x0c50a8…
07-12 02:00:19	iran successfully targets shipping on july 10	No	BUY	900	99¢	$891	0xcc3f15…
07-12 01:16:32	iran successfully targets shipping on july 11	No	BUY	30	84¢	$25	0x83dba0…
07-12 01:16:02	iran successfully targets shipping on july 11	No	BUY	20	81¢	$16	0x88f4c6…
07-12 00:09:23	iran successfully targets shipping on july 9 20260625225210250	No	BUY	71	100¢	$71	0xebaa87…
07-11 12:40:26	iran military action against a gulf state on july 9 20260708212322934	No	BUY	163	88¢	$143	0x81fa42…
07-11 12:36:26	iran military action against a gulf state on july 9 20260708212322934	No	BUY	8	88¢	$7	0xd682a6…
07-11 12:36:20	iran military action against a gulf state on july 9 20260708212322934	No	BUY	50	88¢	$44	0xde149c…
07-11 12:34:34	iran military action against a gulf state on july 9 20260708212322934	No	BUY	20	88¢	$18	0x96f720…
07-11 12:34:19	iran military action against a gulf state on july 9 20260708212322934	No	BUY	259	88¢	$228	0x634220…
07-11 04:04:20	iran successfully targets shipping on july 8 20260625225210249	No	BUY	417	100¢	$416	0x403a44…
07-02 01:37:23	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	2,278	100¢	$2,271	0xea2d89…
06-08 09:21:18	Will Bahrain vs. Syria end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	2,244	98¢	$2,211	0x52c114…
06-08 00:47:13	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	No	BUY	421	100¢	$420	0x40b149…
06-07 19:53:18	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 7 265 824 655 577 216	No	BUY	61	99¢	$60	0x0c4eae…
06-07 19:02:40	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	No	BUY	1,342	99¢	$1,334	0x95c8ab…
06-07 18:15:12	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 7 265 824 655 577 216	No	BUY	388	99¢	$384	0x677d20…
06-07 15:48:48	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 7 2026	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x454e26…
06-07 15:45:03	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 7 2026	No	BUY	22	99¢	$22	0x668e97…
06-06 01:05:03	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 5 9144	No	BUY	2,224	100¢	$2,220	0x1d3226…
06-01 17:05:15	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2,220	100¢	$2,217	0xeb9cc8…
06-01 12:27:05	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	SELL	1,652	100¢	$1,650	0xe54f9c…
05-28 04:56:06	Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	No	BUY	567	99¢	$564	0x2ef15e…
05-25 04:28:11	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	BUY	564	97¢	$548	0x30038a…
05-25 04:20:05	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	BUY	348	100¢	$347	0xb8f82c…
05-25 04:20:05	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xb5287f…
05-25 04:19:37	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	BUY	200	100¢	$199	0x42033a…
05-25 03:50:55	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	BUY	1,102	100¢	$1,096	0x0614f5…
05-25 03:50:46	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	Yes	SELL	2,195	100¢	$2,193	0x67b592…
05-24 01:36:42	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	Yes	BUY	111	100¢	$111	0x9e4458…
05-24 01:36:07	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	Yes	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xec94b1…
05-24 01:35:49	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	Yes	BUY	500	100¢	$498	0x953257…
05-24 01:35:44	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	Yes	BUY	20	100¢	$19	0x667153…
05-24 01:35:37	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	Yes	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0xd4778f…
05-24 01:35:32	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	Yes	BUY	25	100¢	$24	0xa00342…
05-24 01:35:32	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	Yes	BUY	20	100¢	$19	0x6f7ae7…
05-24 01:35:32	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	Yes	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0x059ad5…
05-24 01:35:30	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	Yes	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0x7909ea…
05-24 01:35:30	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	Yes	BUY	36	100¢	$36	0x5f0bd6…
05-24 01:35:30	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	Yes	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x438b94…
05-24 01:35:30	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	Yes	BUY	31	100¢	$31	0x1c882d…
05-24 01:35:28	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	Yes	BUY	1,275	100¢	$1,271	0xd03fc2…
05-22 08:20:22	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	1,182	97¢	$1,151	0xbdff6a…
05-21 18:20:58	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	BUY	1,151	87¢	$1,002	0xfb1204…
05-20 12:41:20	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	406	100¢	$404	0x6f3a8a…
05-20 12:39:37	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	200	100¢	$199	0x91d508…
05-20 12:33:28	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	200	100¢	$199	0xa42006…
05-20 12:30:33	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	200	100¢	$199	0x903e42…
05-19 14:54:46	Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	No	BUY	60	100¢	$59	0xda0dd0…
05-19 14:28:36	Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xb4f0c7…
05-19 14:25:48	Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	No	BUY	1,936	100¢	$1,926	0x99cc26…
05-19 01:57:58	Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	No	BUY	597	100¢	$595	0xb93f8e…
05-19 01:57:07	Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	No	BUY	1,361	100¢	$1,356	0xcd6852…
05-19 01:51:21	Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	No	BUY	35	100¢	$35	0x695995…
05-18 08:25:55	Will Figure's F.03 robots run between 100 and 200 hours without failure?	Yes	BUY	1,985	100¢	$1,981	0xe04823…
05-13 22:45:25	Will Romania win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	1,000	97¢	$969	0xa6b3b4…
05-13 22:45:09	Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	436	92¢	$403	0x87c2d4…
05-13 22:44:41	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	1,923	100¢	$1,921	0x82f587…
05-12 15:42:23	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	1,923	100¢	$1,921	0x04145c…
05-01 05:32:30	Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on May 1?	Yes	BUY	249	99¢	$248	0x5526f5…
05-01 01:07:14	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	134	100¢	$134	0x4b1e1d…
05-01 00:50:16	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x7cdcb4…
05-01 00:31:26	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	No	BUY	150	99¢	$148	0x812983…
05-01 00:31:14	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x9aa54d…
05-01 00:29:36	Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	No	BUY	262	100¢	$261	0x53ac7d…
05-01 00:28:56	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	No	BUY	352	99¢	$348	0x83be52…
05-01 00:28:24	Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xea1ec5…
05-01 00:28:14	Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on May 1?	Yes	BUY	34	99¢	$34	0x4d08f1…
05-01 00:28:02	Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 1?	Yes	BUY	356	99¢	$352	0x138807…
05-01 00:27:08	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xb64d0d…
04-24 05:16:00	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by april 23 2026	No	BUY	182	100¢	$182	0xe82f88…
04-24 05:08:36	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by april 23 2026	No	BUY	1,124	100¢	$1,122	0x5eceb0…
04-13 04:03:21	kharg island no longer under iranian control by april 15	No	BUY	30	98¢	$30	0x306268…
04-13 03:56:09	kharg island no longer under iranian control by april 15	No	BUY	210	98¢	$206	0xbf9f25…
04-13 03:49:01	kharg island no longer under iranian control by april 15	No	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0x9ebcbc…
04-13 03:22:09	will the kharg island oil terminal be hit by april 15	No	BUY	93	96¢	$89	0x7c3534…
04-13 02:41:05	will the kharg island oil terminal be hit by april 15	No	BUY	162	96¢	$155	0x0f534d…
04-13 02:38:53	trump announces us x iran ceasefire end by april 12 2026	No	BUY	185	99¢	$183	0xca7a57…
04-13 02:28:39	us x iran meeting by april 10 2026 895	No	BUY	195	85¢	$165	0x0d9c22…
04-13 02:27:33	us x iran meeting by april 10 2026 895	No	BUY	21	85¢	$18	0x423c04…
04-13 02:25:37	trump announces us x iran ceasefire end by april 12 2026	No	BUY	309	99¢	$305	0xaa1a0f…
04-13 02:24:11	us x iran meeting by april 10 2026 895	No	BUY	357	86¢	$305	0x7cdc93…
04-12 05:17:47	Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	28	92¢	$26	0xe73e55…
04-12 04:06:59	Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	35	92¢	$33	0xe5412e…
04-10 08:12:51	kharg island no longer under iranian control by april 15	No	BUY	131	97¢	$127	0x4bd8c8…
04-10 03:51:35	Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	75	84¢	$63	0x7fb13a…
04-10 02:42:23	Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	5	92¢	$4	0xb428c9…
03-25 16:08:53	will purdue win the 2026 ncaa tournament	No	BUY	127	94¢	$120	0x966e6c…
03-25 15:43:55	will arkansas win the 2026 ncaa tournament	No	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0xb235e6…
03-25 14:50:27	will houston win the 2026 ncaa tournament	No	BUY	54	89¢	$48	0x798436…