Stimulating-Nestling — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$2.01K

Unrealized P&L

+$416

Hit rate

77.0%

Resolved

158

Trades

488

lifetime

Volume

$34.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$71

Open exposure

$1.72K

14 positions

First seen

2026-02-19

last 11-07 20:25

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 77 days

Categories

Politics

86% 29% +$2,490

Other

14% 23% -$294

Sports

1% 20% -$139

Crypto

0% 29% -$42

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

46 active days in 12wk • peak 18 trades/day

Open positions (14) Resolved markets (25) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	No	+2,402	$861	44¢	$1.0K	+$184	11-07 14:08
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	No	+400	-$95	57¢	$230	+$325	11-07 00:55
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	+580	$69	29¢	$165	+$96	11-07 13:10
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	+213	$110	55¢	$116	+$7	11-07 00:31
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?	Yes	+1,625	$106	4¢	$73	-$33	11-07 20:25
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	+140	$52	18¢	$26	-$26	10-04 17:27
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?	Yes	+306	$50	6¢	$20	-$30	08-03 16:15
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	-474	-$59	3¢	$-12	+$46	06-11 19:45
US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 6, 2026?	No	+696	$53	1¢	$10	-$44	11-05 22:10
Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	+1,071	$47	1¢	$10	-$37	10-16 08:09
Will Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	+1,530	$52	0¢	$4	-$48	10-29 16:11
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	+70	$9	3¢	$2	-$7	10-04 17:28
US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 5, 2026?	No	+379	$10	0¢	$1	-$9	11-05 16:53
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Switzerland before 2027?	Yes	+326	$10	0¢	$1	-$9	08-03 16:17

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	9	$3.3K	2,550	2,767	-217	Yes	+$1,261	06-20 02:47
US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 8, 2026?	5	$2.7K	1,846	1,846	+0	No	+$599	11-07 00:20
us x iran meeting by april 10 2026 895	10	$1.8K	1,137	1,137	+0	No	+$81	04-10 09:42
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	14	$1.7K	1,419	1,419	+0	Yes	+$113	03-08 21:32
us x iran ceasefire continues through september 30	2	$1.4K	1,137	1,137	+0	No	+$834	08-30 19:50
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	7	$1.2K	1,771	1,371	+400	open	—	11-07 00:55
Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 8, 2026?	5	$1.1K	608	608	+0	Yes	+$72	04-09 01:48
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	3	$1.1K	969	969	+0	Yes	+$848	05-09 07:30
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	14	$950	61,197	560	+60,637	No	-$166	04-27 20:05
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	6	$948	598	598	+0	Yes	+$141	04-07 23:02
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	9	$903	1,650	1,070	+580	open	—	11-07 13:10
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	2	$900	909	909	+0	Yes	+$700	09-22 18:49
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	3	$883	2,420	18	+2,402	open	—	11-07 14:08
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	2	$823	535	535	+0	No	+$223	05-23 07:33
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	4	$799	1,463	1,463	+0	open	—	05-25 13:43
jd vance diplomatic meeting with iran by april 10	2	$758	885	885	+0	No	+$138	04-08 01:17
Will Iran target Kuwait by September 15, 2026?	6	$676	400	400	+0	Yes	+$116	09-02 06:46
Trump kiss by May 31?	4	$668	511	368	+143	Yes	+$68	05-20 17:55
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	13	$623	18,966	0	+18,966	No	-$623	05-26 00:30
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30?	4	$613	373	373	+0	No	+$13	04-11 01:49
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	5	$581	10,614	247	+10,367	Yes	-$150	04-24 08:50
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31?	2	$435	300	300	+0	No	+$27	04-12 13:55
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	2	$410	277	277	+0	No	+$10	04-21 20:28
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	8	$371	1,200	987	+213	open	—	11-07 00:31
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	9	$316	3,900	0	+3,900	Yes	-$316	09-30 11:56
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	6	$308	456	271	+185	Yes	+$53	04-07 23:22
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	3	$304	170	170	+0	Yes	+$2	04-08 01:17
will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	2	$304	265	265	+0	No	+$104	04-21 07:23
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	6	$288	884	675	+208	No	+$208	06-20 15:24
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?	3	$278	1,069	250	+819	No	+$218	08-30 19:54

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-07 20:25:57	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?	Yes	BUY	700	5¢	$35	0xd610a1…
11-07 14:08:40	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	No	BUY	640	50¢	$320	0x9ead0c…
11-07 13:10:33	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	BUY	528	34¢	$179	0x1e4f0a…
11-07 12:24:13	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	BUY	8	34¢	$3	0x0c550a…
11-07 12:18:04	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	BUY	44	34¢	$15	0x7a8b0b…
11-07 09:39:19	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,000	0¢	$2	0xa33e20…
11-07 00:55:00	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	No	BUY	400	53¢	$212	0xf1a87f…
11-07 00:31:40	Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	213	47¢	$100	0x6c11bd…
11-07 00:20:03	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 8, 2026?	No	SELL	1,768	91¢	$1,609	0x2f7def…
11-06 22:05:28	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 8, 2026?	No	BUY	950	58¢	$550	0xec0e65…
11-06 22:05:06	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	No	SELL	1,152	51¢	$588	0x14a106…
11-06 22:03:57	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 8, 2026?	No	BUY	818	55¢	$450	0x43bf94…
11-06 22:03:39	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 8, 2026?	Yes	SELL	78	43¢	$34	0x3324fd…
11-06 22:03:21	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	SELL	1,070	39¢	$417	0xb1375d…
11-06 21:56:52	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	78	57¢	$44	0x56a024…
11-06 21:56:06	Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?	Yes	SELL	757	6¢	$44	0xad29e1…
11-05 22:10:39	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 6, 2026?	No	BUY	165	8¢	$13	0xbedd9f…
11-05 22:10:18	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 6, 2026?	No	BUY	214	7¢	$15	0x2d88ef…
11-05 16:53:27	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 5, 2026?	No	BUY	322	3¢	$9	0xa25b15…
11-05 16:52:42	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 6, 2026?	No	BUY	310	8¢	$25	0x79355e…
11-05 16:40:07	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 6, 2026?	No	BUY	6	9¢	$1	0x160d78…
11-05 16:38:34	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 5, 2026?	No	BUY	48	3¢	$1	0xc3f255…
11-05 16:36:25	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 5, 2026?	No	BUY	9	2¢	$0	0x9b2587…
11-05 16:36:07	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	529	12¢	$64	0x528e23…
11-03 22:14:36	Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	160	6¢	$10	0x4e26c7…
11-03 22:13:24	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	59	17¢	$10	0xbfb5b7…
11-03 14:25:42	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 3?	Yes	BUY	47	2¢	$1	0x01db66…
11-03 14:13:39	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 3?	Yes	BUY	1	2¢	$0	0x15bb5f…
11-03 14:11:49	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 3?	Yes	BUY	123	2¢	$2	0xa01d05…
11-03 14:07:28	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 3?	Yes	BUY	436	2¢	$9	0xf6e3f3…
11-03 13:50:45	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 3?	Yes	BUY	23	2¢	$0	0xd3ad71…
11-03 13:48:49	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	No	SELL	18	63¢	$11	0x02a857…
10-29 16:11:56	Will Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	600	3¢	$21	0x37e418…
10-29 16:11:26	Will Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	830	3¢	$28	0x6b9006…
10-29 16:10:46	Will Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	100	3¢	$3	0x06515b…
10-29 16:09:52	Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?	Yes	SELL	346	11¢	$40	0x33d0c7…
10-29 16:09:37	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	No	SELL	100	13¢	$13	0x54c72b…
10-27 14:07:45	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27?	No	BUY	220	1¢	$2	0xc50dab…
10-24 00:31:35	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	No	BUY	400	8¢	$32	0xb3db09…
10-24 00:31:20	Will USD be between 2.6M and 2.7M Iranian rials on October 31?	Yes	SELL	119	29¢	$34	0x8d7521…
10-23 18:06:56	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	BUY	756	1¢	$8	0x1b16ef…
10-23 17:02:32	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	No	BUY	18	2¢	$0	0xc0f205…
10-23 17:01:18	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	No	BUY	354	12¢	$43	0xf7dc26…
10-23 17:00:42	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	No	SELL	219	23¢	$50	0xd791f6…
10-23 13:40:05	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	No	BUY	230	7¢	$16	0xa19840…
10-23 11:46:41	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	No	SELL	720	2¢	$12	0xe9f6c9…
10-21 20:37:17	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	No	BUY	11	12¢	$1	0x68f29e…
10-21 20:37:17	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	No	BUY	709	12¢	$84	0x261b06…
10-21 20:37:00	Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	SELL	600	15¢	$88	0xe7cf7d…
10-16 08:09:55	Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	442	4¢	$19	0x7f7ee4…
10-16 08:09:36	Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x2d4f10…
10-16 08:09:34	Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0xf6af7e…
10-16 08:09:34	Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0xde6dbf…
10-16 08:09:33	Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0xdd3780…
10-16 08:09:30	Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0xc114f9…
10-16 08:09:30	Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0xabc038…
10-16 08:09:30	Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	10	4¢	$0	0x259c37…
10-16 08:09:27	Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	15	4¢	$1	0xfbe483…
10-16 07:50:19	Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	10	4¢	$0	0xc4b441…
10-16 07:50:18	Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	10	4¢	$0	0x19c1c0…
10-16 07:50:13	Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	2	4¢	$0	0xb9dafc…
10-16 07:50:13	Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	348	4¢	$15	0xa0963e…
10-16 07:50:13	Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	48	4¢	$2	0x95eb13…
10-16 07:50:13	Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	50	4¢	$2	0x00aa2d…
10-16 07:48:54	Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	10	4¢	$0	0xdc4fef…
10-16 07:48:54	Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	66	4¢	$3	0xa2bf18…
10-16 07:48:54	Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	30	4¢	$1	0x6d4759…
10-15 11:34:45	Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	1	18¢	$0	0x2ebbc2…
10-15 11:26:55	Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	579	18¢	$106	0xb15752…
10-15 11:25:22	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	No	BUY	600	22¢	$132	0xda9e08…
10-15 11:25:12	Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	20	18¢	$4	0xb7eebf…
10-12 09:26:47	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	No	BUY	229	17¢	$38	0x842dfd…
10-12 07:09:35	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	No	BUY	60	17¢	$10	0x463254…
10-12 03:18:20	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	No	BUY	10	17¢	$2	0x47fe6c…
10-12 02:03:14	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	No	BUY	1	17¢	$0	0x3182e3…
10-11 23:53:05	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	No	BUY	100	17¢	$17	0xa04cf4…
10-11 21:08:40	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	No	BUY	200	17¢	$34	0x86a9a7…
10-09 18:56:34	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 9?	No	BUY	430	1¢	$3	0xfd42d2…
10-09 18:56:02	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?	No	BUY	870	6¢	$55	0x78a504…
10-08 03:52:47	Will USD be between 2.6M and 2.7M Iranian rials on October 31?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xda3587…
10-07 22:16:34	Will USD be between 2.6M and 2.7M Iranian rials on October 31?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xcf6030…
10-07 06:45:03	Will USD be between 2.6M and 2.7M Iranian rials on October 31?	Yes	BUY	6	10¢	$1	0xc907a5…
10-07 06:45:03	Will USD be between 2.6M and 2.7M Iranian rials on October 31?	Yes	BUY	6	10¢	$1	0x8bacd1…
10-07 06:45:00	Will USD be between 2.6M and 2.7M Iranian rials on October 31?	Yes	BUY	7	10¢	$1	0x857da9…
10-07 06:44:59	Will USD be between 2.6M and 2.7M Iranian rials on October 31?	Yes	BUY	6	10¢	$1	0x3bdad5…
10-07 06:44:56	Will USD be between 2.6M and 2.7M Iranian rials on October 31?	Yes	BUY	17	10¢	$2	0xa7bc97…
10-07 06:44:56	Will USD be between 2.6M and 2.7M Iranian rials on October 31?	Yes	BUY	11	10¢	$1	0x90c161…
10-07 06:44:56	Will USD be between 2.6M and 2.7M Iranian rials on October 31?	Yes	BUY	46	10¢	$5	0x76f06c…
10-04 21:34:46	us x iran ceasefire continues through october 9	No	BUY	700	6¢	$42	0x2746d3…
10-04 21:33:26	us x iran ceasefire continues through october 12	No	BUY	1,000	10¢	$100	0x27f5ba…
10-04 20:17:32	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	BUY	581	27¢	$157	0x81a68b…
10-04 17:28:07	Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	70	13¢	$9	0x2b33f7…
10-04 17:27:58	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	140	37¢	$52	0xa48090…
10-03 20:11:37	us x iran ceasefire continues through october 9	No	BUY	200	20¢	$40	0xa02dad…
10-03 20:10:56	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	600	19¢	$114	0xcb694f…
10-02 13:13:15	Will USD be between 2.5M and 2.8M Iranian rials on September 30?	Yes	SELL	72	100¢	$72	0x323fd3…
09-30 11:56:33	US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	No	BUY	750	3¢	$22	0x6e593c…
09-30 11:55:15	US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	No	BUY	200	3¢	$6	0x34d375…
09-30 11:51:48	US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	No	BUY	50	3¢	$1	0xed5806…
09-29 20:39:08	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	BUY	5	27¢	$1	0x1ab71b…