Disloyal-Vagrant — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$257

Unrealized P&L

-$13

Hit rate

64.7%

Resolved

1,605

Trades

2,215

lifetime

Volume

$9.00K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

4 positions

First seen

2026-02-20

last 10-28 07:57

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 116 days

Categories

Crypto

62% 70% -$114

Other

26% 35% -$88

Politics

12% 21% +$469

Sports

0% 33% -$10

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

50 active days in 12wk • peak 54 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (18) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	+46	$9	8¢	$3	-$5	10-14 09:11
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	+27	$4	4¢	$1	-$3	10-17 21:44
Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?	Yes	+33	$5	1¢	$0	-$5	10-12 11:17
Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	+8	$0	0¢	$0	+$0	10-27 19:14

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?	14	$279	260	260	+0	open	—	09-28 18:25
Israel closes its airspace by June 15?	11	$154	333	333	+0	No	+$43	06-10 16:17
Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 2.25 but below 2.5?	3	$126	83	83	+0	open	—	09-29 00:29
Will no listed leader be out before 2027?	6	$107	108	108	+0	open	—	09-29 12:55
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by February 28, 2027?	10	$101	81	81	+0	open	—	10-03 10:03
cs2 100t nip 2026 02 20 game1	5	$88	48	48	+0	100 Thieves	+$7	02-20 22:26
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	7	$87	69	69	+0	Down	+$17	05-18 19:50
XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-21 02:05 UTC	3	$78	42	39	+3	Up	-$1	02-21 02:10
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	3	$78	76	30	+46	Yes	-$3	03-06 12:45
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	5	$77	313	222	+91	No	+$57	05-25 17:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	9	$71	64	64	+0	Down	+$13	05-18 14:44
Will the Rhine River fail to return to normal levels before November 1, 2026?	3	$65	50	50	+0	open	—	09-25 16:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	5	$62	45	45	+0	Down	+$2	05-25 19:31
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	7	$60	225	133	+92	No	-$10	05-20 10:41
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	3	$60	50	50	+0	open	—	09-23 23:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	5	$57	43	43	+0	Down	+$25	05-18 14:29
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	5	$51	181	181	+0	open	—	09-29 18:37
XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-10 16:20 UTC	4	$45	53	34	+19	Down	+$3	06-10 16:23
us strikes iran by february 27 2026	3	$43	162	162	+0	No	+$21	02-28 06:17
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in May 2026?	4	$43	6,124	0	+6,124	Yes	-$43	05-12 15:55
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	5	$40	415	80	+335	No	-$8	05-31 20:11
Will there be 35 to 49 West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases among NYC residents in 2026?	4	$38	43	43	+0	open	—	10-03 08:47
Will Meta be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026?	6	$38	40	40	+0	open	—	10-03 08:47
Will Meta be the third-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?	5	$36	40	40	+0	open	—	10-02 23:27
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	3	$34	38	23	+14	No	-$8	06-25 19:59
cs2 ldp odk 2026 02 22 game2	5	$33	21	21	+0	largadosypelados	+$9	02-23 00:01
Will Linda Gorton win the 2026 Lexington mayoral election?	3	$33	20	20	+0	open	—	09-29 23:48
Will Oura's market cap be between $12.5B and $15B at market close on IPO day?	4	$32	100	100	+0	open	—	09-29 10:37
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	6	$32	1,546	1,146	+400	No	+$14	05-20 14:51
cs2 ruby1 ww 2026 02 20	5	$32	19	19	+0	WW Team	+$6	02-20 21:42

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 07:57:01	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	19	92¢	$17	0x3447a1…
10-27 19:14:11	Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	8	34¢	$3	0x91a093…
10-27 10:12:50	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Israeli Minister of Finance?	Yes	SELL	18	13¢	$2	0x4c18a0…
10-27 10:12:24	Will Yashar win 28-29 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	10	21¢	$2	0xb8aa87…
10-27 10:12:17	Will Yashar win 30 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	34	9¢	$3	0xfe5672…
10-27 10:10:24	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	19	16¢	$3	0x6303e2…
10-27 10:09:32	Will RZP-Zehut win a seat in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	BUY	50	6¢	$3	0x4fdac9…
10-27 10:08:50	Will Blue & White win a seat in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	SELL	23	0¢	$0	0x419923…
10-26 19:22:59	Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	24	27¢	$7	0xee1d17…
10-24 21:43:12	Will Valve add sticker trade-ups before November?	Yes	SELL	20	3¢	$1	0xf8d855…
10-17 21:44:17	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	27	15¢	$4	0x0e4033…
10-17 21:44:06	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 21?	No	BUY	60	5¢	$3	0xac35ec…
10-15 20:38:54	Elizabeth Olsen as Scarlet Witch?	Yes	SELL	2	58¢	$1	0x69cbaf…
10-15 15:40:28	Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.3M and 7.4M in September?	Yes	SELL	2	13¢	$0	0xea1f1e…
10-14 09:11:25	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	46	19¢	$9	0xd23f1d…
10-12 11:18:21	Will Blue & White win a seat in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	23	9¢	$2	0xa610fc…
10-12 11:17:35	Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?	Yes	BUY	33	15¢	$5	0x14a82d…
10-12 11:16:30	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Israeli Minister of Finance?	Yes	BUY	18	17¢	$3	0xa8712b…
10-08 12:00:11	Will it snow in New York City, NY by November 30?	Yes	SELL	20	28¢	$6	0x326d6b…
10-08 03:54:11	Will Apple’s market capitalization be between $5.00T and $5.50T at the end of 2026?	No	SELL	20	71¢	$14	0x5a80e7…
10-08 03:12:25	Will Apple’s market capitalization be between $5.00T and $5.50T at the end of 2026?	No	BUY	20	76¢	$15	0xb5b7b5…
10-08 00:57:35	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 IL-16 House election by 20%-25%?	No	SELL	10	79¢	$8	0xa94469…
10-08 00:37:55	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 IL-16 House election by 20%-25%?	No	BUY	10	79¢	$8	0x0919e7…
10-07 19:42:16	Andrew Garfield as Spider-Man?	Yes	SELL	20	33¢	$7	0x4168b4…
10-07 19:04:04	Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31?	No	SELL	12	49¢	$6	0xa21192…
10-07 18:57:33	Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31?	No	SELL	8	60¢	$5	0x5df03b…
10-07 18:56:15	Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31?	No	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0xdc72bd…
10-07 17:17:46	Andrew Garfield as Spider-Man?	Yes	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x1915c3…
10-07 16:18:14	Will Amazon’s market capitalization be between $2.00T and $2.50T at the end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	20¢	$4	0x577362…
10-07 15:45:16	Will Amazon’s market capitalization be between $2.00T and $2.50T at the end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	27¢	$5	0xc553cf…
10-07 15:27:08	Fetterman leaves the Democrats by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	12¢	$2	0xb49409…
10-07 15:25:25	Fetterman leaves the Democrats by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	12¢	$2	0x662c9f…
10-07 14:24:11	Will DeepSeek be added to the Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	18¢	$4	0x9d5bad…
10-07 14:20:52	Will DeepSeek be added to the Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0xbf245e…
10-07 09:51:12	Will there be 1 earthquake of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	SELL	20	29¢	$6	0xcd0319…
10-07 06:06:14	Will Timothée Chalamet be nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	14	20¢	$3	0x44184c…
10-07 04:09:11	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Illinois Senate election by 20%-25%?	Yes	SELL	20	28¢	$6	0x5ecdb3…
10-07 01:57:09	US strike on Colombia by December 31?	No	SELL	20	75¢	$15	0x97a346…
10-07 01:56:35	US strike on Colombia by December 31?	No	BUY	20	78¢	$16	0xc1cef2…
10-07 01:48:24	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Illinois Senate election by 20%-25%?	Yes	BUY	20	35¢	$7	0x5f2462…
10-06 23:42:13	Will Google be the third-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	20	56¢	$11	0x5ad42a…
10-06 21:26:09	Will Timothée Chalamet be nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	14	24¢	$3	0xde53f1…
10-06 19:09:11	Will Michael Olise finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	5	64¢	$3	0x9b6c55…
10-06 19:07:12	Will Michael Olise finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0x91e985…
10-06 19:00:14	Will Democrats win Latino men in the midterms?	No	SELL	20	29¢	$6	0x38dbc5…
10-06 18:18:41	Will Republicans win Latino men in the midterms?	Yes	SELL	20	29¢	$6	0x4c20e3…
10-06 18:16:32	Will Republicans win Latino men in the midterms?	Yes	BUY	15	29¢	$4	0x4717fd…
10-06 18:16:32	Will Republicans win Latino men in the midterms?	Yes	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x36019f…
10-06 18:16:30	Will Republicans win Latino men in the midterms?	Yes	BUY	2	29¢	$1	0xab9bce…
10-06 17:42:54	Will Democrats win Latino men in the midterms?	No	BUY	20	29¢	$6	0xbb7207…
10-06 17:39:09	Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31?	No	SELL	17	71¢	$12	0xbd4687…
10-06 17:36:53	Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31?	No	BUY	17	71¢	$12	0x11412d…
10-06 14:15:15	Will Rafael Fiziev fight Quillan Salkilld next?	Yes	SELL	20	9¢	$2	0x614434…
10-06 13:52:34	Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	20¢	$4	0x3cc95a…
10-06 13:50:04	Will there be 1 earthquake of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	20	33¢	$7	0x1d956f…
10-06 12:53:10	Will Rafael Fiziev fight Quillan Salkilld next?	Yes	BUY	15	10¢	$2	0xf221cc…
10-06 12:53:10	Will Rafael Fiziev fight Quillan Salkilld next?	Yes	BUY	5	10¢	$1	0xae1ab3…
10-06 11:11:33	Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.3M and 7.4M in September?	Yes	BUY	2	16¢	$0	0x9d28ed…
10-06 05:19:16	Will Google be the third-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	20	59¢	$12	0x1bfbb9…
10-06 04:24:10	Will Alibaba be the third-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	14¢	$3	0x0af0c0…
10-06 04:21:19	Will Alibaba be the third-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	19¢	$2	0xad565e…
10-06 04:21:19	Will Alibaba be the third-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	19¢	$2	0x82dbb2…
10-06 01:37:11	Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	19¢	$4	0xa57758…
10-06 01:09:13	Will Chuck Norris rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Passings of 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	59¢	$12	0xb56406…
10-06 01:07:28	Will Chuck Norris rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Passings of 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	59¢	$12	0x44de17…
10-06 01:00:14	Will there be exactly 6 UK parliamentary by-elections in 2026?	No	SELL	20	45¢	$9	0x0ad6e3…
10-05 21:03:13	Will Casa Pia be relegated from the 2026-27 Primeira Liga?	No	SELL	20	46¢	$9	0x070b6b…
10-05 20:42:26	Will Casa Pia be relegated from the 2026-27 Primeira Liga?	No	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xd0fc44…
10-05 18:56:20	Will there be exactly 6 UK parliamentary by-elections in 2026?	No	BUY	20	48¢	$10	0x883652…
10-05 18:26:29	Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $6.00 and $6.50 on October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	4	62¢	$3	0x3343f4…
10-05 18:25:23	Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $6.00 and $6.50 on October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	13	62¢	$8	0x9546bd…
10-05 18:24:20	Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $6.00 and $6.50 on October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	3	62¢	$2	0xa6626a…
10-05 18:11:56	Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $6.00 and $6.50 on October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	84¢	$4	0xd200fa…
10-05 18:11:55	Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $6.00 and $6.50 on October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	84¢	$4	0x85a328…
10-05 18:11:53	Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $6.00 and $6.50 on October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	84¢	$4	0x3d86fd…
10-05 18:11:52	Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $6.00 and $6.50 on October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	84¢	$4	0x49a514…
10-05 17:09:17	Will no one dissent the January Fed decision?	Yes	BUY	0	59¢	$0	0x6ab17c…
10-05 17:09:10	Will no one dissent the January Fed decision?	Yes	SELL	20	59¢	$12	0xe5d511…
10-05 17:06:56	Will no one dissent the January Fed decision?	Yes	BUY	20	59¢	$12	0xabcdcf…
10-05 12:26:50	Will 15% to 24% of Hogs inventory be in D1-D4 drought this week?	No	SELL	4	25¢	$1	0x4562d2…
10-05 12:26:50	Will 15% to 24% of Hogs inventory be in D1-D4 drought this week?	No	SELL	16	25¢	$4	0x3e9768…
10-05 08:18:50	Will UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.4% and 0.5%?	No	SELL	20	52¢	$10	0x5e096e…
10-05 07:58:38	Will UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.4% and 0.5%?	No	BUY	20	53¢	$11	0x5d1959…
10-05 03:27:10	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by February 28, 2027?	No	SELL	8	75¢	$6	0x4ce49e…
10-05 03:24:05	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by February 28, 2027?	No	BUY	8	75¢	$6	0x5757c2…
10-05 02:24:49	Will US Dollar Index (DXY) hit (LOW) 100.50 in October?	Yes	SELL	20	23¢	$5	0x05c556…
10-05 00:45:35	Will US Dollar Index (DXY) hit (LOW) 100.50 in October?	Yes	BUY	20	32¢	$6	0xe742e4…
10-05 00:06:13	Will Ceddanne Rafaela win the 2026 AL Platinum Glove award?	Yes	SELL	20	14¢	$3	0x31dbea…
10-04 23:31:07	Don Cheadle as James Rhodes / War Machine?	No	SELL	6	71¢	$4	0xe30ca4…
10-04 22:52:52	Will Ceddanne Rafaela win the 2026 AL Platinum Glove award?	Yes	BUY	20	16¢	$3	0xaaaa01…
10-04 19:24:02	Don Cheadle as James Rhodes / War Machine?	No	BUY	6	74¢	$4	0xb6eb5a…
10-04 14:24:50	Lecornu out as French PM by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	20	71¢	$14	0xc7e395…
10-04 13:40:02	Will "GTA VI" have a Metascore of at least 98?	No	SELL	20	74¢	$15	0x5002f6…
10-04 13:40:01	Will UCF have more than 4.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?	No	SELL	7	21¢	$1	0x8f4dbd…
10-04 13:39:59	Will John Turturro be nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	20	27¢	$5	0x15c964…
10-04 13:39:58	Will Z.ai be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	22¢	$4	0x5a6431…
10-04 13:10:20	Will Z.ai be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	22¢	$4	0x7965d7…
10-04 07:49:52	Lecornu out as French PM by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	70¢	$14	0x613736…
10-04 03:56:55	Will John Turturro be nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	20	32¢	$6	0x8d6060…
10-03 22:47:25	Will it snow in New York City, NY by November 30?	Yes	BUY	20	67¢	$13	0xb9a52a…