Frivolous-Cupola — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$168

Unrealized P&L

-$129

Hit rate

64.8%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$11.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$154

Open exposure

$506

1 position

First seen

2026-02-18

last 06-15 05:08

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Politics

52% — —

Sports

26% 57% +$168

Other

19% — —

Crypto

3% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

23 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (5) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes		+3,490	$635	15¢	$506	$-129	06-15 05:08

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	4	$2.7K	1,647	1,647	+0	open	—	04-07 02:16
will rory mcilroy win the 2026 masters tournament	4	$1.5K	1,096	1,096	+0	open	—	04-12 22:21
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	3	$1.1K	784	784	+0	open	—	02-28 22:01
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	5	$635	3,490	0	+3,490	open	—	06-15 05:08
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?	2	$610	1,227	0	+1,227	open	—	02-22 04:40
Hurricanes vs. Flyers	3	$398	627	0	+627	Hurricanes	+$229	05-10 00:31
Sabres vs. Canadiens	2	$350	645	0	+645	Canadiens	+$295	05-10 23:47
will crude oil cl hit high 120 by end of march 766 813 597	2	$342	504	0	+504	open	—	03-09 02:14
israel strikes iran by march 31 2026	1	$252	475	0	+475	open	—	02-22 04:38
Will Montreal Canadiens advance to Round 2 of the 2026 NHL Playoffs?	2	$250	630	0	+630	open	—	04-20 23:12
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)	1	$200	250	0	+250	Sean Strickland	$-200	05-10 03:26
will iran strike cyprus in march	1	$200	820	0	+820	open	—	03-02 01:58
NHL Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Canadiens vs. Lightning	1	$200	444	0	+444	open	—	04-17 20:49
Canadiens vs. Sabres	2	$200	413	0	+413	open	—	05-19 02:18
btc updown 5m 1772465400	1	$200	308	0	+308	open	—	03-02 15:31
Avalanche vs. Wild	1	$167	380	0	+380	Avalanche	$-167	05-11 23:06
Will Edmonton Oilers advance to Round 2 of the 2026 NHL Playoffs?	1	$150	217	0	+217	open	—	04-17 20:51
nhl dal min 2026 04 22	2	$150	273	0	+273	open	—	04-23 04:32
nhl car las 2026 06 06	2	$150	100	100	+0	open	—	06-07 04:43
us strikes iran by february 24 2026	1	$144	1,111	0	+1,111	open	—	02-18 23:25
ufc jus3 ili1 2026 06 14	2	$143	119	119	+0	open	—	06-15 05:08
cs2 aur1 ast10 2026 03 14	4	$105	204	0	+204	open	—	03-14 21:14
NHL Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Wild vs. Stars	1	$100	204	0	+204	open	—	04-18 21:42
Sabres vs. Canadiens	2	$91	157	0	+157	Sabres	$-91	05-12 21:56
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	2	$81	313	0	+313	open	—	03-24 17:15
btc updown 5m 1772396700	2	$66	50	49	+1	open	—	03-01 20:29
btc updown 5m 1772394000	2	$61	50	49	+1	open	—	03-01 19:44
will crude oil cl hit high 200 by end of march 926	1	$50	582	0	+582	open	—	03-09 02:39
nhl bos buf 2026 04 21	1	$50	83	0	+83	open	—	04-21 22:34
will iran strike israel on march 8	1	$50	97	0	+97	open	—	03-05 18:41

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-15 05:08:43	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	917	12¢	$110	0x23a3d8…
06-15 05:08:12	ufc jus3 ili1 2026 06 14	Justin Gaethje	SELL	119	99¢	$118	0x75aa13…
06-14 17:16:48	ufc jus3 ili1 2026 06 14	Justin Gaethje	BUY	119	21¢	$25	0xe43a42…
06-14 17:16:40	ufc aie sea1 2026 06 14	Aiemann Zahabi	BUY	114	22¢	$25	0xa5a11d…
06-11 15:12:09	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	154	26¢	$40	0x0b813d…
06-08 03:21:25	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	263	19¢	$50	0xd56b88…
06-07 04:43:30	nhl car las 2026 06 06	Golden Knights	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0x648f8d…
06-07 00:24:49	nhl car las 2026 06 06	Golden Knights	BUY	100	50¢	$50	0x78349d…
06-01 04:39:48	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1,031	16¢	$165	0x5abd23…
05-29 19:57:47	Canadiens vs. Hurricanes	Canadiens	BUY	161	31¢	$50	0xd6defb…
05-28 03:55:21	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1,125	24¢	$270	0x953d56…
05-25 01:35:07	Avalanche vs. Golden Knights	Golden Knights	BUY	93	27¢	$25	0xbaee7b…
05-20 17:13:44	Golden Knights vs. Avalanche	Golden Knights	BUY	64	39¢	$25	0x0a8903…
05-20 17:13:31	Spurs vs. Thunder	Spurs	BUY	78	32¢	$25	0xbe8c95…
05-19 02:18:11	Canadiens vs. Sabres	Canadiens	BUY	106	47¢	$50	0x870fae…
05-18 23:34:12	Canadiens vs. Sabres	Canadiens	BUY	306	49¢	$150	0x3620ee…
05-12 21:56:27	Sabres vs. Canadiens	Canadiens	BUY	69	59¢	$41	0xebc73b…
05-11 23:09:44	Sabres vs. Canadiens	Canadiens	BUY	88	57¢	$50	0x671586…
05-11 23:09:25	Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays	Tampa Bay Rays	BUY	98	51¢	$50	0x46d898…
05-11 23:06:42	Avalanche vs. Wild	Wild	BUY	380	44¢	$167	0x863942…
05-10 23:47:50	Sabres vs. Canadiens	Canadiens	BUY	182	55¢	$100	0x729cc8…
05-10 03:26:27	UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)	Khamzat Chimaev	BUY	250	80¢	$200	0x221dae…
05-10 00:31:45	Hurricanes vs. Flyers	Hurricanes	BUY	79	61¢	$48	0x23f03f…
05-10 00:25:23	Hurricanes vs. Flyers	Hurricanes	BUY	164	61¢	$100	0x94c8cc…
05-09 22:13:37	Avalanche vs. Wild	Wild	BUY	98	45¢	$44	0xc291f3…
05-09 22:13:09	Sabres vs. Canadiens	Canadiens	BUY	463	54¢	$250	0xe697f9…
05-09 22:12:48	Hurricanes vs. Flyers	Hurricanes	BUY	385	65¢	$250	0x583e18…
04-23 04:32:56	nhl ana edm 2026 04 22	Oilers	BUY	86	58¢	$50	0x4e0a43…
04-23 04:32:44	nhl dal min 2026 04 22	Wild	BUY	94	53¢	$50	0x3055c2…
04-23 00:35:06	nhl dal min 2026 04 22	Wild	BUY	179	56¢	$100	0xac1e94…
04-21 22:34:32	nhl bos buf 2026 04 21	Sabres	BUY	83	60¢	$50	0x0ba769…
04-21 22:34:24	nhl mon tb 2026 04 21	Canadiens	BUY	132	38¢	$50	0x533c7a…
04-20 23:12:00	Will Montreal Canadiens advance to Round 2 of the 2026 NHL Playoffs?	Yes	BUY	189	53¢	$100	0x389775…
04-18 21:42:46	NHL Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Wild vs. Stars	Wild	BUY	204	49¢	$100	0xd36447…
04-17 20:51:24	Will Edmonton Oilers advance to Round 2 of the 2026 NHL Playoffs?	Yes	BUY	217	69¢	$150	0x4a2f92…
04-17 20:51:14	Will Montreal Canadiens advance to Round 2 of the 2026 NHL Playoffs?	Yes	BUY	441	34¢	$150	0x8d95c1…
04-17 20:49:20	NHL Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Canadiens vs. Lightning	Habs	BUY	444	45¢	$200	0x1a9f8f…
04-12 22:21:21	will rory mcilroy win the 2026 masters tournament	Yes	SELL	1,096	80¢	$877	0x10ff4a…
04-12 16:14:09	will rory mcilroy win the 2026 masters tournament	Yes	BUY	353	36¢	$127	0x8507a9…
04-11 19:04:17	will rory mcilroy win the 2026 masters tournament	Yes	BUY	172	58¢	$100	0x9bff60…
04-11 15:52:49	will rory mcilroy win the 2026 masters tournament	Yes	BUY	571	70¢	$400	0x474345…
04-07 02:16:01	US forces enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	SELL	1,647	100¢	$1,640	0xa351d7…
03-24 17:15:11	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	135	23¢	$31	0xc29107…
03-22 16:14:45	will elon or musk be said on the first joe rogan experience episode of the week march 29	Yes	BUY	34	59¢	$20	0xc4a817…
03-22 16:14:27	will jamie be said 3 times on the first joe rogan experience episode of the week march 29	Yes	BUY	57	88¢	$50	0x4ab433…
03-22 16:13:45	will ufo or alien be said on the first joe rogan experience episode of the week march 29	Yes	BUY	49	57¢	$28	0x45e7ea…
03-14 21:14:27	cs2 aur1 ast10 2026 03 14	Astralis	BUY	48	79¢	$38	0xe23407…
03-14 21:09:55	cs2 aur1 ast10 2026 03 14	Astralis	BUY	64	55¢	$35	0xa3a3ab…
03-14 21:06:43	cs2 aur1 ast10 2026 03 14	Astralis	BUY	33	46¢	$15	0x3968bd…
03-14 20:59:53	cs2 aur1 ast10 2026 03 14	Astralis	BUY	59	29¢	$17	0x4b0a80…
03-09 02:39:37	will crude oil cl hit high 200 by end of march 926	Yes	BUY	582	9¢	$50	0x92da74…
03-09 02:14:07	will crude oil cl hit high 120 by end of march 766 813 597	Yes	BUY	247	80¢	$198	0x49126a…
03-08 18:33:03	US forces enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	BUY	293	68¢	$200	0x88df79…
03-08 14:19:35	will crude oil cl hit high 120 by end of march 766 813 597	Yes	BUY	257	56¢	$144	0x9dc0d0…
03-05 18:41:37	will iran strike israel on march 8	Yes	BUY	97	52¢	$50	0xeb861b…
03-04 05:01:19	US forces enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	BUY	244	62¢	$150	0x5476c7…
03-04 05:01:17	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	179	28¢	$50	0xbf3604…
03-04 02:58:01	US forces enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	BUY	1,110	68¢	$754	0xb2c1b7…
03-02 15:31:05	btc updown 5m 1772465400	Up	BUY	308	65¢	$200	0x2e1a5a…
03-02 04:10:29	btc updown 5m 1772424600	Up	BUY	51	49¢	$25	0xc6e839…
03-02 04:09:33	btc updown 5m 1772424300	Up	BUY	119	21¢	$25	0x61e697…
03-02 01:58:53	will iran strike cyprus in march	Yes	BUY	820	24¢	$200	0xc84bbf…
03-01 20:29:31	btc updown 5m 1772396700	Down	SELL	49	84¢	$41	0x516013…
03-01 20:25:57	btc updown 5m 1772396700	Down	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0x2298d5…
03-01 19:44:01	btc updown 5m 1772394000	Down	SELL	49	88¢	$43	0x59f584…
03-01 19:42:09	btc updown 5m 1772394000	Down	BUY	50	36¢	$18	0x659067…
02-28 22:01:25	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	Yes	SELL	784	98¢	$766	0x19ff84…
02-28 15:25:37	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	Yes	BUY	429	70¢	$300	0x299f5f…
02-24 03:54:16	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	Yes	BUY	356	21¢	$74	0x64467a…
02-22 04:40:22	US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	520	48¢	$250	0x67b73b…
02-22 04:38:38	israel strikes iran by march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	475	53¢	$252	0x0becd6…
02-19 06:15:42	US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	707	51¢	$360	0x0f5c23…
02-18 23:25:14	us strikes iran by february 24 2026	Yes	BUY	1,111	13¢	$144	0xbb7918…