Nutty-Impostor — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$7.50K

Unrealized P&L

+$345

Hit rate

85.1%

Resolved

Trades

1,202

lifetime

Volume

$323.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$269

Open exposure

$10.5K

13 positions

First seen

2026-03-06

last 10-09 18:05

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 53 days

Categories

Other

44% 72% +$7,467

Tech

32% 52% -$1,765

Politics

23% 80% +$1,007

Crypto

2% 80% +$791

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

24 active days in 12wk • peak 23 trades/day

Open positions (13) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	No	+3,251	$3,121	97¢	$3.1K	+$18	09-12 18:41
Will no Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI by December 31, 2027?	No	+2,940	$2,033	66¢	$1.9K	-$93	09-10 09:05
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?	No	+2,000	$1,060	92¢	$1.9K	+$790	06-27 21:15
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	No	+868	$829	98¢	$850	+$21	07-17 16:43
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	+1,188	$820	58¢	$695	-$125	06-03 23:38
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027?	Yes	+3,381	$803	16¢	$524	-$279	09-15 21:36
Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?	Yes	+464	$376	100¢	$463	+$87	10-09 07:54
Will Revolut launch a USD stablecoin in 2026?	Yes	+919	$276	35¢	$322	+$46	09-12 13:10
US military draft authorized in 2026?	No	+273	$243	97¢	$265	+$22	06-14 17:14
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+4,101	$398	5¢	$211	-$187	09-09 07:22
Will the Hodge Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?	Yes	+555	$86	25¢	$139	+$52	10-06 06:45
Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026?	No	+59	$49	88¢	$52	+$3	09-05 21:18
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	+53	$18	11¢	$6	-$12	10-04 00:37

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	12	$45.7K	23,909	23,909	+0	open	—	10-08 21:42
Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website?	129	$35.8K	23,606	23,723	-117	Yes	+$2,047	05-28 22:04
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 9, 2026?	25	$15.9K	13,052	3,814	+9,238	Yes	+$905	07-09 06:51
will the us government rescind its ban on all foreign use of claude fable 5 by july 1 20260613202440143	118	$14.2K	19,660	659	+19,001	Yes	+$5,117	07-02 03:54
Will Rue Bennett die in Euphoria: Season 3?	37	$12.7K	14,286	0	+14,286	Yes	+$1,542	06-01 02:09
netanyahu out by march 31 854	19	$10.7K	6,126	4,792	+1,333	No	+$196	04-01 14:38
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	39	$9.9K	7,879	6,311	+1,568	Yes	+$64	07-01 19:18
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	13	$9.1K	6,498	6,498	+0	No	+$1,150	04-23 03:20
will iran claim responsibility for oslo embassy attack	19	$8.5K	9,023	0	+9,023	No	+$535	03-09 02:58
Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by April 30?	15	$8.3K	5,878	3,194	+2,684	No	+$630	04-11 19:31
iran leadership change by march 31	10	$6.6K	4,500	4,500	+0	No	+$690	03-17 10:21
Iran leadership change by March 13?	4	$6.4K	4,564	2,282	+2,282	No	+$432	03-17 01:45
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	20	$6.4K	4,809	4,809	+0	No	+$2,263	05-24 23:14
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 30	21	$6.3K	4,642	3,422	+1,220	No	+$652	06-30 23:37
will mrbeasts million dollar puzzle be solved by march 15	112	$6.3K	8,933	0	+8,933	Yes	+$2,656	03-06 16:59
will a claude mythos model be released by june 9 2026	1	$6.1K	6,143	0	+6,143	Yes	+$6	06-09 18:36
will anthropic remove paid plan access for fable 5 by july 19 2026 20260713185755111	20	$6.1K	7,078	0	+7,078	No	+$957	07-20 05:41
will trump praise allah again by april 15	10	$5.2K	6,077	0	+6,077	Yes	-$5,203	04-07 18:04
Will Bryan Johnson have sex again this month?	24	$5.2K	6,226	3,618	+2,608	Yes	-$458	04-30 05:17
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 7, 2026?	11	$4.8K	6,082	6,082	+0	No	-$2,888	07-06 22:56
gpt 5pt6 released by july 9 2026	5	$4.6K	2,352	2,352	+0	Yes	+$74	07-09 06:44
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	20	$4.1K	5,734	5,666	+68	No	-$219	04-17 19:56
Will Bryan Johnson have sex again by May 31?	26	$4.0K	4,180	2,867	+1,313	No	+$1,305	06-01 10:39
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	4	$3.9K	4,455	70	+4,385	No	+$633	07-01 04:53
Will the first announced price of the foldable iPhone be at least $2,000?	12	$3.6K	4,931	0	+4,931	No	+$1,337	09-09 18:15
will anthropic remove paid plan access for fable 5 by july 31 2026 20260713185755112	9	$3.6K	3,717	0	+3,717	No	+$127	07-20 19:11
gpt 5pt6 released by july 6 2026	30	$3.6K	18,918	15,671	+3,247	No	-$1,935	07-04 10:27
Iran leadership change by April 30?	21	$3.3K	5,212	5,212	+0	No	+$332	04-23 21:16
will trump praise allah again by april 15 423	32	$3.3K	3,632	0	+3,632	No	+$375	04-16 04:03
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	1	$3.1K	3,251	0	+3,251	open	—	09-12 18:41

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-09 18:05:44	Will SI.gov launch by October 31?	Yes	BUY	20	75¢	$15	0x18167f…
10-09 17:31:32	Will SI.gov launch by October 31?	Yes	BUY	43	81¢	$34	0xe0ad08…
10-09 07:54:00	Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?	Yes	BUY	464	81¢	$376	0x61a60f…
10-09 07:09:36	Will SI.gov launch by October 31?	Yes	BUY	20	83¢	$17	0xffbf35…
10-09 00:51:44	Will AI.gov be renamed to SI.gov by October 31?	Yes	BUY	60	79¢	$47	0xd482ac…
10-08 23:28:41	Will AI.gov be renamed to SI.gov by October 31?	Yes	BUY	160	77¢	$123	0x8ca454…
10-08 21:44:56	Will SI.gov launch by October 15?	Yes	BUY	20	61¢	$12	0x94516f…
10-08 21:42:54	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	2,941	98¢	$2,885	0x8d70c1…
10-08 20:37:42	Will SI.gov launch by October 15?	Yes	BUY	100	51¢	$51	0xe7540f…
10-08 20:03:03	Will AI.gov be renamed to SI.gov by October 31?	Yes	BUY	166	74¢	$124	0x59a9fc…
10-08 19:45:00	Will SI.gov launch by October 15?	Yes	BUY	47	61¢	$29	0x320a77…
10-08 18:28:42	Will SI.gov launch by October 31?	Yes	BUY	428	74¢	$317	0x53ea79…
10-08 18:27:36	Will AI.gov be renamed to SI.gov by October 31?	Yes	BUY	69	69¢	$48	0xbec7a4…
10-08 18:27:26	Will SI.gov launch by October 31?	Yes	BUY	571	69¢	$393	0x5db517…
10-08 18:27:14	Will AI.gov be renamed to SI.gov by October 31?	Yes	BUY	423	56¢	$238	0xdea75f…
10-08 18:27:05	Will AI.gov be renamed to SI.gov by October 15?	Yes	BUY	135	33¢	$45	0x06e361…
10-08 18:26:56	Will SI.gov launch by October 15?	Yes	BUY	539	42¢	$228	0x094a0e…
10-07 19:20:43	Will there be exactly 1 Codex weekly usage limit reset in the week of October 5?	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0xa3cf10…
10-07 19:20:24	Will there be exactly 1 Codex weekly usage limit reset in the week of October 5?	No	BUY	50	99¢	$49	0x8c1f3b…
10-07 03:36:24	Will there be no Codex weekly usage limit reset in the week of October 5?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x3bf1d8…
10-06 22:20:12	Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?	No	SELL	231	25¢	$59	0x85a8f1…
10-06 22:17:38	Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,068	21¢	$225	0xb02564…
10-06 22:17:38	Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	181	21¢	$38	0x3f0057…
10-06 22:17:26	Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	3,707	24¢	$874	0x93b9eb…
10-06 06:46:10	Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3,889	20¢	$797	0x923d99…
10-06 06:45:45	Will the Hodge Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?	Yes	BUY	555	16¢	$86	0xd4f8ec…
10-04 00:37:52	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	615	17¢	$104	0x8eae76…
10-04 00:37:35	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	53	34¢	$18	0xd6fe6b…
10-04 00:35:40	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	99	4¢	$4	0xa7ddb1…
10-04 00:35:38	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	157	4¢	$6	0x5435f0…
10-04 00:35:20	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	241	9¢	$22	0xdb7408…
10-04 00:34:49	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,617	14¢	$220	0xe38628…
10-04 00:34:41	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	486	9¢	$43	0xeb82ef…
10-04 00:34:37	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,343	8¢	$187	0xd87ef5…
10-03 05:34:59	Will OpenAI retract its Navier-Stokes solution by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	350	95¢	$332	0x12131d…
10-03 05:21:38	Will Tristan Buckmaster sue OpenAI by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	21	90¢	$19	0x3fb233…
09-25 18:55:24	Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,020	4¢	$78	0xd7abeb…
09-19 16:49:39	Will OpenAI reset Codex weekly usage limit by September 24?	Yes	BUY	132	93¢	$122	0x46cee1…
09-19 16:49:30	Will OpenAI reset Codex weekly usage limit by September 22?	Yes	BUY	48	74¢	$35	0x4a0bde…
09-19 16:49:17	Will OpenAI reset Codex weekly usage limit by September 20?	Yes	BUY	40	24¢	$9	0x724214…
09-17 16:55:42	Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,081	15¢	$162	0xe24766…
09-15 21:36:33	Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	351	9¢	$32	0x55599c…
09-15 06:20:55	Next OpenAI GPT Sol (5.7+) released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	23	90¢	$21	0x118014…
09-12 18:41:40	Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	No	BUY	3,251	96¢	$3,121	0x3a6a91…
09-12 13:10:12	Will Revolut launch a USD stablecoin in 2026?	Yes	BUY	280	26¢	$73	0xac1300…
09-12 04:40:21	Will OpenAI reset Codex weekly usage limit by September 28?	Yes	BUY	167	99¢	$166	0xfaee44…
09-12 04:38:19	Will OpenAI reset Codex weekly usage limit by September 21?	Yes	BUY	6	99¢	$5	0x881aa7…
09-12 03:25:06	Will OpenAI reset Codex weekly usage limit by September 14?	Yes	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x64ea55…
09-12 03:22:54	Will OpenAI reset Codex weekly usage limit by October 5?	Yes	BUY	342	99¢	$338	0x47f5d9…
09-12 03:22:46	Will OpenAI reset Codex weekly usage limit by September 28?	Yes	BUY	113	99¢	$112	0xffde3e…
09-12 03:22:42	Will OpenAI reset Codex weekly usage limit by September 21?	Yes	BUY	108	99¢	$107	0x9a3b82…
09-12 03:22:37	Will OpenAI reset Codex weekly usage limit by September 14?	Yes	BUY	113	99¢	$112	0xc92aac…
09-12 03:22:27	Will OpenAI reset Codex weekly usage limit by September 21?	Yes	BUY	10	98¢	$9	0x819252…
09-12 03:21:45	Will OpenAI reset Codex weekly usage limit by September 14?	Yes	BUY	57	98¢	$55	0xb83e93…
09-12 03:21:39	Will OpenAI reset Codex weekly usage limit by October 5?	Yes	BUY	157	97¢	$153	0x7295f0…
09-12 03:21:33	Will OpenAI reset Codex weekly usage limit by September 28?	Yes	BUY	645	97¢	$624	0x920968…
09-12 03:21:25	Will OpenAI reset Codex weekly usage limit by September 21?	Yes	BUY	56	98¢	$55	0x33d8e3…
09-12 03:21:22	Will OpenAI reset Codex weekly usage limit by September 21?	Yes	BUY	872	92¢	$804	0x5e3241…
09-12 03:21:13	Will OpenAI reset Codex weekly usage limit by September 14?	Yes	BUY	187	93¢	$173	0x51b2fa…
09-12 00:12:16	Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2028?	Yes	BUY	483	28¢	$135	0x57e50e…
09-11 17:08:55	Will the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?	Yes	SELL	144	35¢	$51	0x95e04d…
09-11 17:08:10	Will the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?	Yes	BUY	218	32¢	$69	0xfe5b94…
09-11 17:05:28	Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	576	19¢	$108	0xede725…
09-11 16:15:52	Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	545	35¢	$189	0x45b06e…
09-11 16:15:19	Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	637	60¢	$380	0xcc456b…
09-11 16:14:39	Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,000	35¢	$700	0x50dfd4…
09-11 05:53:15	Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	367	39¢	$143	0xfebde5…
09-11 05:48:31	Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	170	17¢	$29	0xd07c0d…
09-11 05:47:46	Will CMI declare the Navier-Stokes problem solved by December 31, 2028?	No	SELL	218	55¢	$120	0x749dda…
09-11 03:01:25	Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	284	38¢	$108	0xd5a172…
09-10 22:53:52	Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	207	43¢	$89	0xfbea4f…
09-10 21:20:12	Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	46¢	$6	0x3f252e…
09-10 21:19:57	Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	80	47¢	$38	0x370acd…
09-10 19:32:52	Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2028?	Yes	BUY	11	32¢	$3	0x265763…
09-10 19:32:36	Will CMI declare the Navier-Stokes problem solved by December 31, 2028?	No	BUY	218	52¢	$113	0x0f792e…
09-10 19:03:30	Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2028?	Yes	BUY	16	30¢	$5	0x86c1dc…
09-10 19:02:25	Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2028?	Yes	BUY	30	29¢	$9	0xb3ab1c…
09-10 19:02:16	Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2028?	Yes	BUY	100	29¢	$29	0xb26b81…
09-10 18:35:43	Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	78	16¢	$12	0x87c60d…
09-10 18:23:25	Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	608	18¢	$109	0x67519f…
09-10 18:22:25	Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	50	17¢	$8	0xcb3ff9…
09-10 17:38:46	Will CMI declare the Navier-Stokes problem solved by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	506	17¢	$86	0x10d226…
09-10 17:35:03	Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	948	17¢	$161	0x207fc1…
09-10 09:24:36	Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	149	15¢	$22	0x172747…
09-10 09:05:16	Will no Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	2,163	70¢	$1,510	0xb23d01…
09-10 09:04:21	Will no Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	777	67¢	$523	0x55681b…
09-10 08:57:30	Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?	No	BUY	231	32¢	$74	0xcb1711…
09-10 08:55:39	will openai announce another millennium prize solution by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	431	20¢	$87	0x56b3ff…
09-09 23:27:16	Will OpenAI reset Codex weekly usage limit by September 14?	No	BUY	15	65¢	$10	0x5aaf25…
09-09 20:12:04	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	BUY	926	97¢	$898	0x54f6af…
09-09 20:11:33	Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 30?	No	BUY	402	99¢	$397	0x1ea052…
09-09 18:29:15	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	BUY	2,015	97¢	$1,955	0x5be9f9…
09-09 18:15:52	Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 30?	No	BUY	510	92¢	$469	0x6e1932…
09-09 18:15:48	Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 30?	No	BUY	203	85¢	$172	0x36b8b9…
09-09 18:15:45	Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 30?	No	BUY	24	84¢	$20	0xd2b31c…
09-09 18:15:12	Will the first announced price of the foldable iPhone be at least $2,000?	No	BUY	235	96¢	$226	0xbc05ac…
09-09 18:15:10	Will the first announced price of the foldable iPhone be at least $2,000?	No	BUY	128	97¢	$124	0x82e9dc…
09-09 18:15:07	Will the first announced price of the foldable iPhone be at least $2,000?	No	BUY	145	95¢	$138	0x8e33f0…
09-09 18:15:07	Will the first announced price of the foldable iPhone be at least $2,000?	No	BUY	11	95¢	$11	0x73a5ba…
09-09 18:15:07	Will the first announced price of the foldable iPhone be at least $2,000?	No	BUY	733	88¢	$648	0x10d5f2…