Ignorant-Effacement — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$7

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

80.3%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$901

lifetime

Avg / trade

$10

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-16

last 06-02 06:26

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Crypto

73% 50% $-12

Other

21% 100% +$4

Sports

7% 0% $-0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

2 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (18) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	5	$124	65	65	+0	open	—	04-30 08:59
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	4	$112	16,032	0	+16,032	open	—	06-02 06:26
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	7	$85	127	0	+127	Down	+$9	05-05 09:59
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	1	$70	75	0	+75	Yes	+$4	04-20 13:05
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	3	$58	40	40	+0	Up	+$18	05-05 10:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	2	$56	42	42	+0	open	—	04-30 11:02
highest temperature in shenzhen on april 19 2026 29c	4	$45	50	50	+0	open	—	04-19 08:50
highest temperature in shanghai on april 17 2026 20c	2	$44	50	0	+50	open	—	04-17 06:07
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	4	$30	77	62	+15	Up	+$0	05-05 10:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	5	$28	23	16	+6	Up	+$3	05-05 08:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	3	$25	26	7	+20	Down	+$5	05-05 08:41
Will Fernando Mendoza be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	04-20 09:48
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	2	$20	10	10	+0	No	$-0	04-16 11:34
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	04-16 11:34
highest temperature in shenzhen on april 17 2026 28c	2	$19	10	10	+0	open	—	04-17 05:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	4	$16	27	8	+19	Up	$-4	05-05 05:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	1	$15	15	0	+15	Down	+$0	05-05 05:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	4	$13	15	12	+2	Down	+$1	05-11 09:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	6	$13	15	11	+4	Down	+$1	05-05 05:14
btc updown 5m 1776339600	5	$12	10	10	+0	open	—	04-16 11:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	2	$10	5	5	+0	open	—	04-30 10:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	2	$10	12	0	+12	Down	$-10	05-05 10:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	2	$9	20	0	+20	Up	$-9	05-06 06:00
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	1	$7	0	8	-8	open	—	06-02 05:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	3	$6	28	10	+18	Down	$-6	05-05 10:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	2	$6	14	14	+0	Up	$-4	05-06 02:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	1	$5	10	0	+10	open	—	04-30 10:05
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	1	$5	16	0	+16	Up	$-5	05-11 09:56
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	1	$5	12	0	+12	Down	$-5	05-05 08:51
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	1	$5	17	0	+17	Down	$-5	05-05 05:26

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-02 06:26:54	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,235	1¢	$10	0x4b7ea0…
06-02 06:18:30	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6,854	1¢	$48	0x6e466a…
06-02 06:10:09	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6,786	1¢	$48	0x3008fc…
06-02 05:58:26	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,157	1¢	$7	0xe2d959…
06-02 05:54:21	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	8	94¢	$7	0xc5702b…
05-11 09:56:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	16	31¢	$5	0x243153…
05-11 09:54:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Down	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x3ead9e…
05-11 09:54:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Down	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0x24d817…
05-11 09:53:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Up	SELL	12	50¢	$6	0x0d5462…
05-11 09:51:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Up	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0x73f948…
05-06 06:00:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	Down	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0x51fd39…
05-06 06:00:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	Down	BUY	9	51¢	$4	0xe71cb0…
05-06 02:49:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	Down	SELL	14	8¢	$1	0x1a0dab…
05-06 02:46:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	Down	BUY	14	36¢	$5	0x467b90…
05-05 10:39:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Up	SELL	10	2¢	$0	0xe7d52a…
05-05 10:37:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Up	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xf32b99…
05-05 10:37:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Up	BUY	18	27¢	$5	0xfba322…
05-05 10:24:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Up	SELL	40	94¢	$38	0xc425f5…
05-05 10:22:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Up	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0xac98e9…
05-05 10:21:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Up	BUY	29	52¢	$15	0xe42365…
05-05 10:14:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Up	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0x2dde8d…
05-05 10:14:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Up	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0xc8841f…
05-05 10:04:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Down	BUY	7	71¢	$5	0xbb52ad…
05-05 10:04:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Down	BUY	8	65¢	$5	0x119b33…
05-05 10:03:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Up	SELL	62	24¢	$15	0xa5f2e7…
05-05 10:02:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Up	BUY	62	8¢	$5	0x071a83…
05-05 09:59:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	16	96¢	$15	0xbd8247…
05-05 09:59:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	18	85¢	$15	0x574546…
05-05 09:59:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	19	78¢	$15	0x769e01…
05-05 09:59:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	24	63¢	$15	0x101981…
05-05 09:59:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	18	84¢	$15	0x269f29…
05-05 09:56:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Up	BUY	15	33¢	$5	0xd018a5…
05-05 09:56:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Up	BUY	18	28¢	$5	0x9dbca2…
05-05 08:51:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Up	BUY	12	41¢	$5	0x7348bf…
05-05 08:41:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Down	BUY	20	76¢	$15	0x3f776f…
05-05 08:41:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Down	SELL	7	77¢	$5	0xb0a966…
05-05 08:40:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Down	BUY	7	76¢	$5	0xd51847…
05-05 08:09:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x96d1f4…
05-05 08:09:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Up	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0xe2e93a…
05-05 08:09:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Up	SELL	16	75¢	$12	0xcf3e14…
05-05 08:05:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Up	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0xe6f606…
05-05 08:05:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Up	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0xc53e74…
05-05 05:26:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Up	BUY	17	29¢	$5	0x70c82d…
05-05 05:14:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	Up	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x8b6484…
05-05 05:14:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	Down	SELL	1	60¢	$1	0x9b8454…
05-05 05:14:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	Down	SELL	6	60¢	$3	0x8c765c…
05-05 05:14:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	Down	SELL	2	60¢	$1	0x56aa12…
05-05 05:14:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	Down	SELL	3	60¢	$2	0x1eda5f…
05-05 05:11:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	Down	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0x4d82e2…
05-05 05:09:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Down	BUY	8	4¢	$0	0x8e3ac1…
05-05 05:07:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Down	SELL	8	75¢	$6	0x26a782…
05-05 05:06:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Down	BUY	8	62¢	$5	0x21c5a8…
05-05 05:05:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Down	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0x6d2660…
05-05 05:04:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Down	BUY	15	98¢	$15	0xa14df4…
04-30 11:53:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Up	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x31199c…
04-30 11:02:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Up	SELL	42	74¢	$31	0x92db56…
04-30 11:00:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Up	BUY	42	60¢	$25	0xb59ae8…
04-30 10:05:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Up	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x29eb71…
04-30 10:04:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Up	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xdf2a69…
04-30 10:03:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Up	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x5e3be4…
04-30 09:02:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Up	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0x04fbcc…
04-30 08:59:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Down	SELL	65	99¢	$64	0xf823cd…
04-30 08:58:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x881af5…
04-30 08:58:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Down	BUY	27	93¢	$25	0x668f82…
04-30 08:58:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Down	BUY	27	93¢	$25	0xcce890…
04-30 08:58:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x7342ce…
04-20 13:05:56	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	75	94¢	$70	0x396a3c…
04-20 09:48:58	Will Fernando Mendoza be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?	Yes	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xb274ef…
04-20 09:48:56	Will Fernando Mendoza be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?	Yes	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x6b2c42…
04-19 08:50:22	highest temperature in shenzhen on april 19 2026 29c	No	SELL	50	0¢	$0	0x8a4587…
04-19 05:17:30	highest temperature in shenzhen on april 19 2026 29c	No	BUY	7	90¢	$6	0x45af34…
04-19 04:39:42	highest temperature in shenzhen on april 19 2026 29c	No	BUY	33	90¢	$30	0x900ff1…
04-19 04:30:56	highest temperature in shenzhen on april 19 2026 29c	No	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0x1d9f1c…
04-17 06:07:00	highest temperature in shanghai on april 17 2026 20c	Yes	BUY	5	89¢	$4	0x392953…
04-17 06:06:50	highest temperature in shanghai on april 17 2026 20c	Yes	BUY	45	89¢	$40	0x628cb0…
04-17 05:04:26	highest temperature in shenzhen on april 17 2026 28c	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xc6ca5b…
04-16 12:13:24	highest temperature in shenzhen on april 17 2026 28c	No	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0x42e4a1…
04-16 11:43:50	btc updown 5m 1776339600	Up	SELL	7	75¢	$5	0x8395b8…
04-16 11:43:50	btc updown 5m 1776339600	Up	SELL	1	75¢	$0	0x7d73df…
04-16 11:43:50	btc updown 5m 1776339600	Up	SELL	3	75¢	$2	0x088993…
04-16 11:41:04	btc updown 5m 1776339600	Up	BUY	6	45¢	$3	0xfdfe5e…
04-16 11:41:04	btc updown 5m 1776339600	Up	BUY	4	45¢	$2	0xde9a46…
04-16 11:34:22	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xe625a1…
04-16 11:34:22	Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x34c017…
04-16 11:23:14	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x7b47c7…
04-16 11:18:00	Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x2b8576…