Improbable-Vineyard — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$41

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

25.4%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$2.25K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$27

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-03

last 09-01 10:04

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 30 days

Categories

Other

72% 98% -$1

Sports

25% 0% -$11

Crypto

2% 100% +$53

Tech

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 1 trade/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	2	$1.1K	570	570	+0	No	-$3	04-28 22:45
Spurs vs. Thunder	14	$561	1,100	0	+1,100	Thunder	-$11	05-26 14:42
bitcoin up or down march 3 3am et	3	$47	100	0	+100	Down	+$53	03-03 08:03
elon musk of tweets march 16 march 18 0 39	1	$19	20	0	+20	No	+$1	03-16 08:09
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 80°F or higher on June 19?	1	$10	10	0	+10	No	+$0	06-18 08:15
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 16?	1	$10	10	0	+10	No	+$0	06-15 08:50
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 9?	1	$10	10	0	+10	No	+$0	06-09 10:41
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C or below on June 16?	1	$10	10	0	+10	No	+$0	06-15 08:54
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C or below on May 21?	1	$10	10	0	+10	No	+$0	05-20 07:48
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 102-103°F on June 19?	1	$10	10	0	+10	No	+$0	06-18 08:12
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C or higher on June 9?	1	$10	10	0	+10	No	+$0	06-09 10:47
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on June 10?	1	$10	10	0	+10	No	+$0	06-09 10:45
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 24?	1	$10	10	0	+10	No	+$0	06-23 10:25
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 19?	1	$10	10	0	+10	No	+$0	06-18 08:18
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 72-73°F on May 15?	1	$10	10	0	+10	No	+$0	05-14 09:10
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 40°C on May 27?	1	$10	10	0	+10	No	+$0	05-27 03:39
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 28°C on July 17?	1	$10	10	0	+10	No	+$0	07-16 06:23
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 23?	1	$10	10	0	+10	Yes	+$0	06-23 10:20
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 32°C or below on July 14?	1	$10	10	0	+10	No	+$0	07-13 08:44
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 19°C on May 21?	1	$10	10	0	+10	No	+$0	05-20 07:49
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 94°F or higher on June 19?	1	$10	10	0	+10	No	+$0	06-18 08:17
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 15?	1	$10	10	0	+10	Yes	+$0	06-15 08:55
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on June 16?	1	$9	10	0	+10	No	+$0	06-15 08:49
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C or below on July 14?	1	$9	10	0	+10	No	+$0	07-13 08:46
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C or below on June 16?	1	$9	10	0	+10	No	+$0	06-15 08:52
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 28°C or below on May 30?	1	$9	10	0	+10	No	+$0	05-29 07:15
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 10°C on May 15?	1	$9	10	0	+10	No	+$0	05-14 09:05
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 26°C or below on May 21?	1	$9	9	0	+9	No	+$0	05-20 07:46
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 52-53°F on May 15?	1	$9	9	0	+9	No	+$0	05-14 09:09
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C or below on May 15?	1	$9	9	0	+9	No	+$0	05-14 09:07

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-01 10:04:48	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C or below on September 3?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x0ee4ce…
07-16 06:26:40	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 40°C on July 17?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x7898fa…
07-16 06:23:31	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 28°C on July 17?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x90d150…
07-13 08:46:49	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C or below on July 14?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$9	0xfbc119…
07-13 08:44:55	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 32°C or below on July 14?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x7e4df9…
06-23 10:26:37	Will the highest temperature in London be 39°C on June 23?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x47f023…
06-23 10:25:01	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 24?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x8d3319…
06-23 10:23:19	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 24?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xaee8a3…
06-23 10:21:47	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 12°C on June 24?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x48f67e…
06-23 10:20:02	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 23?	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x3651d9…
06-23 10:18:32	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C or higher on June 23?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xe6e00a…
06-23 10:16:59	Will the highest temperature in Denver be 92°F or higher on June 23?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xf79a2b…
06-23 10:15:14	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on June 23?	Yes	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x40fc87…
06-18 08:23:37	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 19?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xd0c8a8…
06-18 08:22:04	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 19?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x5c90d1…
06-18 08:20:17	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 19?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xadb47e…
06-18 08:18:46	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 19?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x9d669e…
06-18 08:17:17	Will the highest temperature in New York City be 94°F or higher on June 19?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x2dbab7…
06-18 08:15:40	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 80°F or higher on June 19?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xb8e879…
06-18 08:14:11	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18?	Yes	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xf77974…
06-18 08:12:22	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 102-103°F on June 19?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x7dc9e9…
06-15 09:00:03	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on June 16?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x8ea0f8…
06-15 08:58:33	Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 15?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x839647…
06-15 08:57:00	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15?	Yes	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x64f680…
06-15 08:55:40	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 15?	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x9232bc…
06-15 08:54:16	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C or below on June 16?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xae6b6e…
06-15 08:52:28	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C or below on June 16?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$9	0x4f400c…
06-15 08:50:33	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 16?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xb041ce…
06-15 08:49:16	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on June 16?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$9	0x8a4af8…
06-09 10:47:55	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C or higher on June 9?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x5a8eea…
06-09 10:45:39	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on June 10?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x7ded3b…
06-09 10:42:46	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 9?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x604c01…
06-09 10:41:12	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 9?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x364948…
05-29 07:19:32	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $248 in May?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x60b801…
05-29 07:18:25	Will XRP reach $1.80 in May?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xe3d435…
05-29 07:17:14	Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x94907a…
05-29 07:16:05	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C or below on May 30?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x9f01f4…
05-29 07:15:01	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 28°C or below on May 30?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$9	0x6c7b38…
05-29 07:13:47	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 74-75°F on May 31?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x73191d…
05-29 07:10:59	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on May 30?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x883acf…
05-27 03:44:57	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on May 27?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x0dd5b3…
05-27 03:43:43	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on May 27?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xa2bbf1…
05-27 03:42:47	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C or below on May 27?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x317df4…
05-27 03:41:29	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on May 27?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x96df25…
05-27 03:39:37	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 40°C on May 27?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x953a7f…
05-27 03:37:46	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on May 28?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xfb1a20…
05-26 14:42:04	Spurs vs. Thunder	Spurs	BUY	550	40¢	$220	0x1d458f…
05-26 09:24:34	Spurs vs. Thunder	Thunder	BUY	105	62¢	$65	0xb74fe6…
05-26 09:24:15	Spurs vs. Thunder	Thunder	BUY	100	62¢	$62	0x6be76f…
05-26 09:24:13	Spurs vs. Thunder	Thunder	BUY	3	62¢	$2	0xaeaab1…
05-26 09:24:06	Spurs vs. Thunder	Thunder	BUY	3	62¢	$2	0xa27fe5…
05-26 09:24:02	Spurs vs. Thunder	Thunder	BUY	52	62¢	$32	0x5dc941…
05-26 09:23:38	Spurs vs. Thunder	Thunder	BUY	3	62¢	$2	0x94ea12…
05-26 09:22:51	Spurs vs. Thunder	Thunder	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0xc1baa0…
05-26 09:22:47	Spurs vs. Thunder	Thunder	BUY	38	62¢	$24	0x68fded…
05-26 09:22:30	Spurs vs. Thunder	Thunder	BUY	9	62¢	$6	0x29897f…
05-26 09:21:51	Spurs vs. Thunder	Thunder	BUY	18	62¢	$11	0x05da77…
05-26 09:21:42	Spurs vs. Thunder	Thunder	BUY	13	62¢	$8	0xc8bafa…
05-26 09:21:28	Spurs vs. Thunder	Thunder	BUY	63	62¢	$39	0x7f7f7a…
05-26 09:21:13	Spurs vs. Thunder	Thunder	BUY	138	62¢	$86	0xc81a5f…
05-20 07:51:29	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on May 21?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x8f4a3f…
05-20 07:49:40	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 19°C on May 21?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x5e44da…
05-20 07:48:16	Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C or below on May 21?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xd56157…
05-20 07:46:59	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 26°C or below on May 21?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xa192eb…
05-14 09:10:39	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 72-73°F on May 15?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xe15f8e…
05-14 09:09:26	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 52-53°F on May 15?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xb34b75…
05-14 09:07:27	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C or below on May 15?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x3889c6…
05-14 09:05:59	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 10°C on May 15?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$9	0x87f739…
05-08 07:10:50	Will the highest temperature in Denver be 25°F or below on May 9?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xb27b1f…
05-08 07:08:41	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 19°C on May 9?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x21a196…
05-08 07:06:59	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 63°F or below on May 9?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x571a24…
05-08 07:05:11	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C or higher on May 9?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x5a39aa…
04-28 22:45:50	Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	SELL	570	98¢	$559	0xddaf0d…
04-28 22:21:22	Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	570	99¢	$561	0x788fed…
04-27 06:48:46	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C or below on April 28?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xcecf55…
04-27 06:47:20	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	Yes	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x4baf4d…
04-27 06:45:02	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 73°F or below on April 28?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x714406…
04-27 06:44:10	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 13°C on April 28?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x48dc42…
03-16 08:09:59	elon musk of tweets march 16 march 18 0 39	No	BUY	20	97¢	$19	0x40b7c6…
03-03 08:03:59	bitcoin up or down march 3 3am et	Down	BUY	59	47¢	$28	0x30fe30…
03-03 08:03:57	bitcoin up or down march 3 3am et	Down	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0x3d1240…
03-03 08:03:55	bitcoin up or down march 3 3am et	Down	BUY	36	47¢	$17	0x78e638…