Frail-Survivor — Polymarket

Realized P&L (30d)

-$18

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

67.5%

Resolved (30d)

122

Trades (30d)

183

248 lifetime

Volume (30d)

$354

$704 lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-11

last 11-01 03:53

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 26 days

Categories

Crypto

50% 45% -$18

Politics

28% 67% +$4

Other

18% 57% $0

Tech

4% 100% +$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

9 active days in 12wk • peak 65 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will trump announce location or date of us and iran deal signing by june 13 2026 20260611220122298	5	$34	30	5	+25	Yes	+$1	06-13 19:02
Will Pizza Hut be acquired before 2027?	4	$31	16	16	+0	Yes	+$2	06-16 18:15
will the grand theft auto vi ps5 launch price be at least 80 20260618224014046	11	$24	229	229	+0	open	—	06-24 14:03
will jared kushner have a diplomatic meeting with iran by june 30	2	$20	10	10	+0	Yes	$0	06-21 09:31
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	2	$20	10	10	+0	Yes	+$0	07-01 19:35
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	2	$20	10	10	+0	Yes	+$0	06-29 13:07
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?	2	$20	10	10	+0	Yes	+$0	07-02 06:02
will israel and lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by june 30 2026 20260607225940217 843 464	2	$20	10	10	+0	Yes	+$0	06-23 13:05
Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30?	2	$19	10	10	+0	Yes	+$0	06-25 15:20
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	2	$19	10	10	+0	Yes	+$1	07-01 19:29
Will Utah use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	2	$17	10	10	+0	open	—	07-11 18:21
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	2	$14	10	10	+0	No	-$1	06-28 20:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	4	$12	20	0	+20	Down	-$12	10-26 01:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	2	$10	10	0	+10	Up	+$0	10-25 22:02
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	5	$10	18	0	+18	Down	-$5	10-26 01:34
will spacex acquire cursor by september 30 2026	2	$10	5	5	+0	Yes	+$0	06-16 11:55
will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 30 20260615191216221	2	$10	5	5	+0	Yes	+$0	06-17 17:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	2	$9	10	0	+10	Up	+$1	10-25 23:58
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	2	$9	6	6	+0	No	-$1	05-14 05:14
will steve witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with iran by june 30	2	$9	5	5	+0	Yes	+$1	06-21 01:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	2	$8	10	0	+10	Down	-$4	10-27 00:58
Will Mike Collins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia?	2	$8	5	5	+0	Yes	-$1	05-20 05:14
Will Louisiana use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	2	$8	5	5	+0	open	—	05-17 02:26
Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22?	2	$7	5	5	+0	Yes	-$2	05-15 09:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	2	$7	10	0	+10	Up	+$3	10-27 10:33
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June 14, 2026?	1	$7	7	0	+7	Yes	+$0	06-13 19:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	4	$7	20	0	+20	Up	+$8	10-26 02:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	2	$7	10	0	+10	Up	-$2	10-28 18:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	2	$6	10	0	+10	Up	+$4	10-26 01:14
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?	2	$6	3	3	+0	Yes	+$0	06-21 06:28

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-01 03:53:16	Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	Down	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0xbdea9a…
11-01 03:53:15	Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	Down	BUY	4	5¢	$0	0x0a3fc8…
11-01 01:23:54	Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Down	BUY	5	3¢	$0	0xa655bf…
11-01 01:23:54	Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Down	BUY	0	4¢	$0	0x84fabc…
10-31 21:29:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Up	BUY	1	5¢	$0	0xdb411d…
10-31 21:29:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Up	BUY	4	5¢	$0	0xfde8fe…
10-31 13:09:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Up	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x1bc8fd…
10-31 13:09:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Up	BUY	5	5¢	$0	0x0d852d…
10-31 11:14:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	5¢	$0	0x6b57d6…
10-30 22:58:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	5¢	$0	0xbf7aa5…
10-30 22:58:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Down	BUY	1	5¢	$0	0x5f7d9f…
10-30 22:58:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	5¢	$0	0x2b390f…
10-30 13:09:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Up	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0xb813ff…
10-29 20:24:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Down	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x7760e0…
10-28 18:33:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Down	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0xa9924d…
10-28 18:32:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Down	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x6c9821…
10-28 18:14:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	5¢	$0	0xe98bd7…
10-28 18:14:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Down	BUY	0	3¢	$0	0xf5e870…
10-28 18:14:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Down	BUY	4	3¢	$0	0xb66084…
10-28 18:14:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Down	BUY	1	3¢	$0	0xafd5eb…
10-28 18:14:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Down	BUY	0	3¢	$0	0x789504…
10-28 18:06:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Down	BUY	5	83¢	$4	0x8aaafb…
10-28 18:03:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xdd05da…
10-28 18:02:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Down	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0xe16eb1…
10-28 15:47:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Down	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0x8beb26…
10-28 15:33:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Up	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x770026…
10-28 15:19:32	Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Down	BUY	5	5¢	$0	0x3379f0…
10-28 15:08:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Up	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x6d387c…
10-28 15:00:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Up	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0x38b7e4…
10-28 13:47:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Up	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x8f4112…
10-28 13:30:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	BUY	5	66¢	$3	0x4f495e…
10-28 13:09:47	Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Up	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x69bf40…
10-28 13:09:46	Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Up	BUY	5	3¢	$0	0x76e4e6…
10-28 12:31:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Up	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0xa90109…
10-28 12:23:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Up	BUY	5	9¢	$0	0xec7562…
10-28 12:21:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Up	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0x94808b…
10-28 09:25:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0xa280ee…
10-28 09:23:40	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-28 09:20 UTC	Up	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0xf520a6…
10-28 09:00:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Up	BUY	5	67¢	$3	0x768003…
10-28 08:46:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x98e0c6…
10-28 08:36:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x247945…
10-28 08:33:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Down	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x406911…
10-28 08:26:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x6ca1a7…
10-28 06:14:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x7c53c8…
10-28 05:40:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0x769c05…
10-28 05:26:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0x938e29…
10-28 05:19:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	Up	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x63e7b7…
10-28 04:32:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xb15647…
10-28 02:09:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	Down	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0xee0f70…
10-28 02:04:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Up	BUY	5	3¢	$0	0x36407d…
10-28 01:44:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x50ed22…
10-28 01:44:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	3¢	$0	0x2e3af2…
10-28 00:42:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0x4cfbbd…
10-27 21:48:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Down	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x88e660…
10-27 21:35:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Down	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0x87628c…
10-27 21:33:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xcf6329…
10-27 21:33:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Down	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x24df4a…
10-27 21:31:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Down	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x4da931…
10-27 20:39:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Down	BUY	2	93¢	$2	0xeea816…
10-27 20:39:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Down	BUY	3	93¢	$3	0x310633…
10-27 20:38:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	8¢	$0	0x630c1a…
10-27 20:38:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	3¢	$0	0x828a0f…
10-27 20:38:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x14d590…
10-27 18:55:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0x6e4119…
10-27 17:25:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x08be07…
10-27 16:32:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Down	BUY	1	19¢	$0	0x0ce048…
10-27 16:11:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0xc5618a…
10-27 15:23:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x558954…
10-27 15:17:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Down	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0xe5f029…
10-27 15:14:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Down	BUY	3	1¢	$0	0xfb46cd…
10-27 15:14:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Down	BUY	2	1¢	$0	0x0fce11…
10-27 15:02:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x86c21b…
10-27 15:02:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Up	BUY	4	98¢	$4	0x0d4b92…
10-27 14:42:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Up	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x965b3e…
10-27 14:21:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0x647d79…
10-27 14:08:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	BUY	5	5¢	$0	0x183e5a…
10-27 14:03:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Up	BUY	5	27¢	$1	0x5dc3bc…
10-27 13:48:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Up	BUY	5	29¢	$1	0xe8d77c…
10-27 13:45:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Down	BUY	3	69¢	$2	0xcd8664…
10-27 13:45:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Down	BUY	2	69¢	$1	0x314912…
10-27 13:34:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x22daac…
10-27 12:56:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0xe67e77…
10-27 12:48:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Up	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0xc0f65a…
10-27 12:40:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Up	BUY	0	31¢	$0	0x76e750…
10-27 12:40:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Up	BUY	0	31¢	$0	0x74ba0b…
10-27 11:15:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Down	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0x402c33…
10-27 10:47:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x8bced2…
10-27 10:45:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Down	BUY	4	17¢	$1	0xec2bff…
10-27 10:45:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Down	BUY	1	17¢	$0	0x78698b…
10-27 10:37:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	9¢	$0	0xa699b0…
10-27 10:37:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x759907…
10-27 10:33:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Up	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x719ba7…
10-27 10:31:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xa07cc6…
10-27 10:10:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0x46f4b2…
10-27 10:00:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Up	BUY	5	82¢	$4	0xfe8d64…
10-27 09:35:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	68¢	$3	0x8e897d…
10-27 08:38:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Down	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0xbcc856…
10-27 08:38:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Down	BUY	3	45¢	$1	0x563a63…
10-27 08:37:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Up	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0xcbe7d2…
10-27 08:34:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Down	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xc3dff3…