Slight-Cephalopod — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$710

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

52.6%

Resolved

Trades

126

lifetime

Volume

$35.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$281

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-25

last 10-22 00:18

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 21 days

Categories

Other

83% 56% +$1,207

Politics

16% 80% -$540

Sports

0% 100% +$41

Crypto

0% 100% +$2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

5 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (26) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?	23	$6.9K	6,024	2,724	+3,300	Yes	-$264	08-05 03:52
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	8	$6.7K	6,900	510	+6,390	Yes	+$671	07-29 12:51
will super typhoon dolphin hit china 20260730202351925	20	$6.2K	3,983	3,983	+0	Yes	-$9	08-09 18:37
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	13	$2.9K	3,000	0	+3,000	Yes	+$144	07-31 15:54
israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 1	5	$2.3K	1,200	1,200	+0	Yes	+$86	08-01 23:39
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	2	$1.5K	1,600	0	+1,600	No	-$1,463	08-12 01:12
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	2	$1.1K	620	620	+0	Yes	+$70	07-09 15:04
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?	1	$1.1K	1,100	0	+1,100	Yes	+$48	10-10 16:50
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?	1	$965	1,340	0	+1,340	Yes	+$375	07-05 04:52
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	3	$960	1,100	0	+1,100	Yes	+$140	10-22 00:18
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	14	$846	505	505	+0	open	—	07-29 12:50
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	1	$632	800	0	+800	Yes	+$168	09-12 08:07
Fed rate hike in 2026?	4	$588	600	600	+0	Yes	-$66	08-07 13:56
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	2	$492	1,261	0	+1,261	Yes	+$769	03-25 04:28
Will Trump visit China by June 30?	6	$480	500	0	+500	Yes	+$20	05-04 14:44
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?	2	$440	287	287	+0	No	$0	07-12 01:19
dota2 tr7 playti 2026 07 31	2	$354	248	248	+0	PlayTime	-$46	07-31 11:25
fifwc esp bel 2026 07 10 team to advance	1	$200	267	0	+267	Spain	+$67	07-10 13:52
Will France win on 2026-07-09?	1	$184	300	0	+300	Yes	+$116	07-09 15:43
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	2	$147	526	526	+0	open	—	07-24 15:46
cs2 faze mglz 2026 07 30	4	$134	100	100	+0	FaZe	-$20	07-31 14:03
lol blg dk 2026 07 17	1	$100	137	0	+137	Dplus KIA	-$100	07-17 15:08
fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 team to advance	1	$100	149	0	+149	England	-$100	07-18 06:32
cs2 sparta mouzn 2026 07 13	1	$100	137	0	+137	SPARTA	+$37	07-13 15:53
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$59	100	0	+100	Yes	+$41	07-18 04:50
Will Argentina vs. Switzerland end in a draw?	1	$50	73	0	+73	Yes	+$23	07-12 02:50
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-19 09:35 UTC	2	$21	11	11	+0	Down	+$1	04-19 09:41
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-19 09:45 UTC	2	$21	11	11	+0	Down	+$1	04-19 09:50

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-22 00:18:20	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	500	88¢	$440	0xa284f6…
10-22 00:17:23	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	500	88¢	$440	0x4ee0b3…
10-13 15:33:47	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	80¢	$80	0x7d139d…
10-10 16:50:22	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?	Yes	BUY	1,100	96¢	$1,052	0xc5c3cb…
09-12 08:07:19	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	800	79¢	$632	0xadb6a5…
08-12 01:12:46	Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	Yes	BUY	600	92¢	$553	0xfc3749…
08-09 18:37:18	will super typhoon dolphin hit china 20260730202351925	Yes	SELL	1,983	100¢	$1,981	0x343ced…
08-07 13:56:34	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	300	55¢	$165	0x8d2cf1…
08-07 12:31:30	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	300	60¢	$180	0x5bcc31…
08-07 07:52:21	will super typhoon dolphin hit china 20260730202351925	Yes	BUY	115	92¢	$106	0xea99dc…
08-06 03:34:02	Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	Yes	BUY	1,000	91¢	$910	0x48bc3f…
08-05 16:20:50	will super typhoon dolphin hit china 20260730202351925	Yes	BUY	837	90¢	$753	0xa9dff2…
08-05 16:01:06	will super typhoon dolphin hit china 20260730202351925	Yes	BUY	163	90¢	$147	0xbc84ec…
08-05 14:09:05	will super typhoon dolphin hit china 20260730202351925	Yes	BUY	868	91¢	$790	0xabb241…
08-05 03:52:06	Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?	Yes	BUY	1,000	84¢	$841	0x714985…
08-05 03:47:09	Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?	Yes	BUY	761	85¢	$647	0xea358c…
08-05 03:47:05	Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?	Yes	BUY	14	85¢	$12	0x055fb0…
08-05 03:47:00	Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?	Yes	BUY	52	85¢	$44	0xd99189…
08-05 03:46:59	Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?	Yes	BUY	52	85¢	$44	0xf02716…
08-05 03:46:59	Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?	Yes	BUY	30	85¢	$26	0x41710f…
08-05 03:46:59	Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?	Yes	BUY	30	85¢	$26	0x3aba22…
08-05 03:46:59	Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?	Yes	BUY	52	85¢	$44	0x0ec200…
08-05 03:46:57	Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?	Yes	BUY	10	85¢	$8	0xb2c325…
08-05 03:40:12	Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?	Yes	BUY	154	92¢	$142	0xec05fc…
08-05 03:40:12	Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?	Yes	BUY	21	92¢	$19	0x48b62c…
08-05 03:40:12	Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?	Yes	BUY	22	92¢	$20	0x03e0d5…
08-05 03:40:03	Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?	Yes	BUY	52	92¢	$48	0x692bdd…
08-05 03:40:02	Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?	Yes	BUY	52	92¢	$48	0xc784a9…
08-05 03:39:59	Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?	Yes	BUY	26	92¢	$24	0xc10c6b…
08-05 03:39:59	Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?	Yes	BUY	35	92¢	$32	0x6a0163…
08-05 03:39:53	Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?	Yes	BUY	13	92¢	$12	0x8f994b…
08-05 03:39:53	Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?	Yes	BUY	925	92¢	$849	0x3d41cb…
08-05 03:11:32	Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?	Yes	SELL	2,724	61¢	$1,671	0x157d91…
08-05 02:24:21	Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?	Yes	BUY	748	85¢	$636	0x73411d…
08-05 02:24:21	Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?	Yes	BUY	252	85¢	$214	0x671f1f…
08-04 10:57:08	Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?	Yes	BUY	1,149	87¢	$1,000	0xacb526…
08-04 01:00:05	Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?	Yes	BUY	575	87¢	$500	0x2b0451…
08-03 11:41:03	will super typhoon dolphin hit china 20260730202351925	Yes	SELL	938	55¢	$516	0xd46c57…
08-03 10:08:44	will super typhoon dolphin hit china 20260730202351925	Yes	SELL	793	56¢	$443	0x48c78f…
08-03 08:58:08	will super typhoon dolphin hit china 20260730202351925	Yes	SELL	4	60¢	$3	0x43154d…
08-03 07:57:57	will super typhoon dolphin hit china 20260730202351925	Yes	SELL	5	66¢	$4	0xc127c5…
08-03 06:47:54	will super typhoon dolphin hit china 20260730202351925	Yes	SELL	1	67¢	$1	0x0aecdd…
08-03 05:37:39	will super typhoon dolphin hit china 20260730202351925	Yes	SELL	16	67¢	$11	0x50d12d…
08-03 05:13:15	will super typhoon dolphin hit china 20260730202351925	Yes	SELL	202	67¢	$135	0x522a77…
08-03 05:12:29	will super typhoon dolphin hit china 20260730202351925	Yes	SELL	19	67¢	$13	0x200dc8…
08-03 04:58:48	will super typhoon dolphin hit china 20260730202351925	Yes	SELL	3	67¢	$2	0xd0ba59…
08-02 15:12:11	will super typhoon dolphin hit china 20260730202351925	Yes	SELL	18	61¢	$11	0x840075…
08-02 12:57:18	will super typhoon dolphin hit china 20260730202351925	Yes	BUY	1,100	65¢	$715	0xb75072…
08-02 01:31:18	will super typhoon dolphin hit china 20260730202351925	Yes	BUY	200	68¢	$136	0xcd69b8…
08-02 01:12:38	will super typhoon dolphin hit china 20260730202351925	Yes	BUY	100	68¢	$68	0x797c2a…
08-02 01:12:36	will super typhoon dolphin hit china 20260730202351925	Yes	BUY	100	68¢	$68	0x773963…
08-02 01:12:35	will super typhoon dolphin hit china 20260730202351925	Yes	BUY	500	69¢	$345	0x7810b1…
08-01 23:39:51	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 1	Yes	SELL	1,200	99¢	$1,191	0x99ffca…
08-01 13:02:53	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 1	Yes	BUY	850	92¢	$783	0xf59f91…
08-01 13:00:11	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 1	Yes	BUY	259	92¢	$238	0x33e1d2…
08-01 12:55:14	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 1	Yes	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x3a4e4e…
08-01 12:54:17	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 1	Yes	BUY	87	92¢	$80	0x111361…
07-31 15:54:30	Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	253	95¢	$241	0x71e693…
07-31 15:52:29	Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	1,042	95¢	$992	0x083d77…
07-31 15:52:17	Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0x5dd121…
07-31 15:52:17	Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	52	95¢	$50	0x05c107…
07-31 15:05:17	Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	104	95¢	$99	0xbdcc0e…
07-31 15:04:00	Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	14	95¢	$13	0xfa76a5…
07-31 15:03:56	Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	104	95¢	$99	0xa7e882…
07-31 15:03:35	Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	95	95¢	$91	0xd05233…
07-31 15:03:08	Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	9	95¢	$8	0x133ca4…
07-31 15:03:03	Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0x66c2aa…
07-31 14:59:32	Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	17	95¢	$16	0x0dc615…
07-31 14:59:24	Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	50	95¢	$48	0x6c46d1…
07-31 14:59:21	Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	1,230	95¢	$1,171	0x710082…
07-31 14:03:03	cs2 faze mglz 2026 07 30	FaZe	SELL	100	57¢	$57	0x52121f…
07-31 13:45:08	cs2 faze mglz 2026 07 30	FaZe	BUY	44	77¢	$34	0x77ecc4…
07-31 13:45:06	cs2 faze mglz 2026 07 30	FaZe	BUY	47	77¢	$36	0x06a9c1…
07-31 13:44:59	cs2 faze mglz 2026 07 30	FaZe	BUY	9	77¢	$7	0x62975f…
07-31 11:25:09	dota2 tr7 playti 2026 07 31	PlayTime	SELL	248	62¢	$154	0xf6d662…
07-31 11:16:35	dota2 tr7 playti 2026 07 31	PlayTime	BUY	248	81¢	$200	0xdc90ee…
07-30 08:20:48	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	300	32¢	$96	0x77865c…
07-29 12:51:50	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	600	76¢	$455	0x036a84…
07-29 12:50:21	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	SELL	505	86¢	$436	0x76cd6d…
07-24 15:46:10	Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	Yes	SELL	526	9¢	$47	0x9b33c3…
07-24 13:06:19	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	200	70¢	$140	0x2f7c65…
07-20 16:00:22	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2,512	93¢	$2,341	0xc1e773…
07-20 15:59:45	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	44	93¢	$41	0xeeda30…
07-20 15:59:45	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	44	93¢	$41	0xbc379a…
07-20 14:44:36	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2,500	93¢	$2,335	0xf20291…
07-18 06:32:49	fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 team to advance	France	BUY	149	67¢	$100	0x4d3863…
07-18 04:50:09	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	100	59¢	$59	0xd70c07…
07-17 15:08:15	lol blg dk 2026 07 17	Bilibili Gaming	BUY	137	73¢	$100	0x81da43…
07-16 15:24:13	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	300	49¢	$147	0x79bebd…
07-15 05:07:19	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	81¢	$12	0xf1a6b5…
07-15 05:06:59	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	81¢	$6	0x612b98…
07-15 05:06:59	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	82¢	$24	0x57c78e…
07-15 05:06:58	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	81¢	$7	0xf3055d…
07-15 05:06:56	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	72	82¢	$58	0xefbdef…
07-15 05:06:55	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	52	81¢	$42	0x830e76…
07-15 05:06:53	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	70	81¢	$57	0xeb7c99…
07-15 05:06:38	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	81¢	$24	0x573f17…
07-15 03:28:40	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	85	81¢	$69	0xb374a3…
07-15 03:19:28	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	81¢	$8	0x496dcf…
07-15 03:12:50	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	56	81¢	$46	0x317ab7…