Icy-Former — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$2.51K

Unrealized P&L

+$529

Hit rate

60.8%

Resolved

Trades

1,153

lifetime

Volume

$83.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$72

Open exposure

$809

5 positions

First seen

2026-05-21

last 10-25 13:55

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 31 days

Categories

Politics

47% 59% +$300

Tech

31% 48% -$946

Other

22% 59% -$1,860

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

5 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	+600	$86	92¢	$555	+$469	06-13 14:09
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	No	+200	$110	97¢	$193	+$83	06-15 00:57
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?	No	+33	$27	94¢	$31	+$4	05-26 19:10
Will Snapchat be acquired before 2027?	No	+20	$16	96¢	$19	+$3	06-08 19:01
will anthropic ipo by december 31 2026 546 128	No	+400	$40	3¢	$10	-$30	08-19 23:35

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	31	$10.2K	6,760	6,160	+600	Yes	-$214	06-15 13:35
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	24	$6.7K	4,200	3,612	+588	No	+$312	05-26 21:28
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	14	$6.3K	4,026	3,813	+213	Yes	+$489	05-29 04:52
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	13	$6.0K	3,000	3,000	+0	No	+$14	05-29 04:55
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	18	$5.7K	3,500	2,946	+554	No	+$163	05-31 15:00
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	14	$3.1K	2,000	1,700	+300	No	+$263	05-29 05:01
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	29	$2.8K	1,800	1,300	+500	Yes	+$150	06-14 05:21
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	18	$2.8K	2,200	1,700	+500	Yes	-$177	06-10 20:48
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	25	$2.3K	1,600	1,600	+0	open	—	10-03 15:29
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	54	$2.3K	2,120	1,740	+380	Yes	-$842	06-09 05:19
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?	28	$2.3K	1,891	891	+1,000	Yes	+$348	05-28 17:31
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?	52	$1.7K	2,802	2,702	+100	Yes	-$873	06-09 17:12
trump orders federal review of ai model releases by june 30	18	$1.6K	2,067	1,779	+288	No	-$86	06-26 00:19
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?	12	$1.4K	941	630	+311	No	+$50	06-08 20:04
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?	26	$1.4K	1,000	2,000	-1,000	Yes	-$404	06-09 06:19
Claude 4.8 released by May 31?	43	$1.3K	6,040	2,338	+3,701	Yes	-$122	05-28 16:37
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	35	$1.2K	6,381	870	+5,511	No	-$1,094	06-23 04:46
us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	17	$1.2K	1,000	1,000	+0	Yes	-$29	06-15 03:43
iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	27	$1.2K	800	800	+0	No	+$132	06-12 10:05
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?	36	$1.1K	1,517	717	+800	No	-$299	06-21 14:05
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	10	$1.1K	1,100	1,100	+0	Yes	+$90	06-09 13:59
will a claude mythos model be released by june 12 2026 762 968	18	$1.1K	663	663	+0	Yes	-$10	06-09 16:57
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	5	$948	500	500	+0	No	+$39	05-30 05:25
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 31, 2026?	2	$877	599	299	+299	No	+$15	05-29 23:51
grok 4pt4 released by june 30	16	$849	1,290	150	+1,140	No	-$639	06-09 06:47
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	5	$826	500	500	+0	No	+$60	05-28 05:56
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	7	$742	800	800	+0	Yes	-$246	06-15 03:42
Will the Ornn H200 Index be less than $3.00 on June 30, 2026?	5	$736	869	0	+869	No	+$132	06-03 21:40
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	6	$726	616	200	+416	No	+$48	06-13 05:38
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by June 30, 2026?	19	$715	860	0	+860	Yes	-$715	06-03 16:24

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-25 13:55:47	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	No	SELL	75	88¢	$66	0x3937af…
10-03 15:29:53	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	SELL	309	84¢	$260	0x5d5b7f…
10-02 15:13:15	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	No	SELL	26	85¢	$22	0x89d5a6…
10-02 13:54:32	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	SELL	309	82¢	$254	0x52c41e…
10-02 09:46:09	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	No	SELL	6	85¢	$5	0xf4f7ed…
08-28 00:50:40	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	SELL	69	81¢	$56	0x58d28c…
08-19 23:35:10	will anthropic ipo by december 31 2026 546 128	No	BUY	200	10¢	$20	0xa7af39…
08-17 21:30:31	will anthropic ipo by december 31 2026 546 128	No	BUY	157	10¢	$16	0x609e31…
08-17 13:41:34	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	SELL	60	81¢	$49	0x9b1ef7…
08-17 13:41:22	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	SELL	77	81¢	$62	0x4ad86a…
08-17 08:18:37	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	SELL	275	79¢	$217	0x0099e9…
07-27 03:22:30	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	No	SELL	43	85¢	$37	0x810234…
07-27 03:19:33	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	No	SELL	13	83¢	$11	0x5d4dac…
07-25 03:55:27	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	No	SELL	1	83¢	$1	0xb51ef8…
07-24 20:50:40	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	No	SELL	36	83¢	$30	0x2c0c05…
07-08 01:04:40	next mythos class model released by september 30 2026	Yes	BUY	10	54¢	$5	0x8e43fb…
07-07 23:01:58	next mythos class model released by september 30 2026	Yes	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0xde0b0e…
07-07 23:01:44	next mythos class model released by september 30 2026	Yes	BUY	100	56¢	$56	0x7b81c1…
07-07 20:46:58	next mythos class model released by september 30 2026	Yes	BUY	50	58¢	$29	0xfaa135…
07-07 20:46:53	next mythos class model released by september 30 2026	Yes	BUY	50	59¢	$30	0xbeb2f8…
07-07 13:47:41	next mythos class model released by september 30 2026	Yes	BUY	100	60¢	$60	0x55f9ea…
06-26 03:43:01	Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.30 and $2.60 on June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	49	45¢	$22	0xfd03a8…
06-26 00:19:50	trump orders federal review of ai model releases by june 30	Yes	SELL	3	41¢	$1	0xd29c0e…
06-25 22:56:13	trump orders federal review of ai model releases by june 30	Yes	SELL	96	41¢	$39	0x318473…
06-25 20:15:59	Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.30 and $2.60 on June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	33	45¢	$15	0x623b94…
06-25 03:17:14	trump orders federal review of ai model releases by june 30	Yes	SELL	7	40¢	$3	0x6b08db…
06-25 03:11:58	trump orders federal review of ai model releases by june 30	Yes	SELL	18	40¢	$7	0x40beba…
06-23 04:57:56	Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.30 and $2.60 on June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	25	40¢	$10	0xb96207…
06-23 04:57:56	Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.30 and $2.60 on June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	40¢	$1	0x249203…
06-23 04:57:20	Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.30 and $2.60 on June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	40¢	$20	0xce0dff…
06-23 04:57:20	Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.30 and $2.60 on June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	40¢	$2	0x9158a5…
06-23 04:46:50	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	SELL	345	8¢	$28	0x0f0a12…
06-22 14:04:32	another critical cloudflare incident by june 30 2026 12	Yes	SELL	50	37¢	$18	0x5f8074…
06-21 19:08:19	Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	193	50¢	$96	0xd50668…
06-21 17:43:56	Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	50¢	$100	0x00bfab…
06-21 17:42:55	Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	50¢	$4	0xb03cad…
06-21 14:05:28	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 22 20260613193829178 738 167 332 255	Yes	BUY	196	8¢	$16	0x3c259c…
06-21 13:46:52	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 22 20260613193829178 738 167 332 255	Yes	BUY	2	8¢	$0	0x3cc50d…
06-21 13:46:11	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 22 20260613193829178 738 167 332 255	Yes	BUY	2	8¢	$0	0x12ac3f…
06-21 00:00:44	Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	29¢	$29	0xc09550…
06-21 00:00:34	Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	80	32¢	$25	0x94e5b8…
06-21 00:00:34	Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	31¢	$31	0x661e59…
06-20 16:12:40	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	29	30¢	$9	0xc2e620…
06-20 16:12:40	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	31	30¢	$9	0xbe920a…
06-20 16:12:40	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	16	30¢	$5	0x5bd161…
06-20 16:12:40	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	55	30¢	$16	0x3625c4…
06-20 16:11:55	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	41	30¢	$12	0xd7971d…
06-20 16:11:17	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	45	30¢	$14	0xaf9876…
06-20 16:11:17	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	48	30¢	$14	0x879951…
06-20 16:11:17	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	40	30¢	$12	0x05b762…
06-20 16:08:46	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	9	30¢	$3	0x71aac1…
06-20 16:08:46	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	24	30¢	$7	0x5a9789…
06-20 16:08:46	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	10	30¢	$3	0x02c18b…
06-20 12:49:16	will gpt 6 be released by july 31 2026 20260610221318220	Yes	BUY	8	5¢	$0	0x21b131…
06-20 07:39:50	Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	0	51¢	$0	0xb9ba3a…
06-20 00:27:53	will gpt 6 be released by july 31 2026 20260610221318220	Yes	BUY	24	5¢	$1	0x7954fb…
06-20 00:27:50	will gpt 6 be released by july 31 2026 20260610221318220	Yes	BUY	24	5¢	$1	0xb82548…
06-20 00:27:46	will gpt 6 be released by july 31 2026 20260610221318220	Yes	BUY	24	5¢	$1	0xeb4b6c…
06-20 00:27:46	will gpt 6 be released by july 31 2026 20260610221318220	Yes	BUY	19	5¢	$1	0x72b47b…
06-19 18:44:56	Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0xba17a4…
06-19 18:16:17	Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	51¢	$26	0x3e8cf6…
06-19 16:23:56	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	228	10¢	$23	0x2a3bfd…
06-19 13:24:13	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	269	10¢	$27	0x9c98c4…
06-19 12:50:41	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	3	10¢	$0	0xa1c191…
06-18 21:08:16	Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xabf05d…
06-18 20:37:34	trump orders federal review of ai model releases by june 30	Yes	SELL	258	37¢	$96	0x8bfd31…
06-18 13:58:52	Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	BUY	71	58¢	$41	0x0c616c…
06-18 13:57:08	Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	BUY	29	58¢	$17	0xf449f2…
06-18 08:43:52	Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	51¢	$5	0x460840…
06-18 05:34:14	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	103	29¢	$30	0x8af099…
06-17 21:38:40	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	SELL	225	70¢	$158	0x94a708…
06-17 12:47:40	Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	34	51¢	$18	0x6075ba…
06-17 12:21:05	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 22 20260613193829178 738 167 332 255	Yes	BUY	5	15¢	$1	0xa69130…
06-17 12:21:05	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 22 20260613193829178 738 167 332 255	Yes	BUY	15	15¢	$2	0x9d718a…
06-17 12:06:04	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	Yes	BUY	120	15¢	$18	0xc1d3ae…
06-17 11:53:16	Will Claude go down 3-5 times in June?	Yes	BUY	20	2¢	$0	0x1cb179…
06-16 10:10:36	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 22 20260613193829178 738 167 332 255	Yes	BUY	100	32¢	$32	0x398f27…
06-16 03:02:46	Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x074d11…
06-16 02:17:42	Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	44	62¢	$27	0xfe5296…
06-16 02:07:33	Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0x3811fb…
06-16 01:39:34	Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	52¢	$2	0x399027…
06-16 00:30:39	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 22 20260613193829178 738 167 332 255	Yes	BUY	337	56¢	$188	0x2ef3e2…
06-16 00:18:39	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 22 20260613193829178 738 167 332 255	Yes	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0xdfdefb…
06-15 23:56:03	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 22 20260613193829178 738 167 332 255	Yes	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0xab549a…
06-15 23:50:51	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 22 20260613193829178 738 167 332 255	Yes	BUY	0	56¢	$0	0xea206b…
06-15 23:38:21	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 22 20260613193829178 738 167 332 255	Yes	BUY	18	56¢	$10	0xb7895a…
06-15 23:31:06	Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?	Yes	BUY	20	56¢	$11	0x348360…
06-15 23:30:43	Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?	Yes	BUY	19	56¢	$10	0x5248fd…
06-15 23:26:33	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	80¢	$80	0x6026e8…
06-15 18:21:01	Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?	Yes	SELL	210	62¢	$130	0x825827…
06-15 18:10:40	Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?	Yes	SELL	7	62¢	$5	0x0a0769…
06-15 18:04:48	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 22 20260613193829178	Yes	SELL	40	62¢	$25	0x538338…
06-15 14:13:48	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	100	11¢	$11	0x4f91f7…
06-15 14:02:54	Will claude-fable-5 be the best AI model on June 20, 2026?	Yes	BUY	77	10¢	$8	0xe063f9…
06-15 13:49:27	Will claude-fable-5 be the best AI model on June 20, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	10¢	$1	0x703dee…
06-15 13:49:27	Will claude-fable-5 be the best AI model on June 20, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x20f743…
06-15 13:49:27	Will claude-fable-5 be the best AI model on June 20, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	10¢	$1	0x1903af…
06-15 13:49:09	Will claude-fable-5 be the best AI model on June 20, 2026?	Yes	BUY	167	10¢	$17	0x2a3043…
06-15 13:49:09	Will claude-fable-5 be the best AI model on June 20, 2026?	Yes	BUY	225	10¢	$22	0x2842e0…
06-15 13:35:28	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	BUY	200	10¢	$20	0xa67120…