Disguised-Mantel — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$27

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

74.0%

Resolved

1,010

Trades

1,905

lifetime

Volume

$141.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$74

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-16

last 10-17 16:44

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 180 days

Categories

Other

70% 57% +$1,971

Sports

26% 67% -$1,326

Crypto

3% 54% -$205

Politics

2% 75% -$435

Tech

0% 0% -$36

Pop-Culture

0% 100% +$4

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

55 active days in 12wk • peak 25 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 team to advance	5	$6.4K	3,558	3,233	+325	Spain	+$51	07-19 21:52
nbasl uta lac 2026 07 12	2	$4.6K	2,323	2,323	+0	LA Clippers	+$21	07-13 03:48
Knicks vs. Cavaliers	4	$2.8K	1,642	1,642	+0	Knicks	-$7	05-26 02:13
Will Spain win on 2026-07-14?	1	$2.8K	2,894	0	+2,894	Yes	+$94	07-14 20:48
Will IK Start win on 2026-08-01?	1	$2.5K	2,508	0	+2,508	No	+$8	08-01 16:22
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24?	2	$2.3K	1,250	1,250	+0	Yes	+$149	05-24 16:50
Will Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC win on 2026-07-18?	1	$2.2K	2,314	0	+2,314	Yes	+$134	07-18 14:15
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26?	2	$2.1K	1,149	1,149	+0	Yes	+$69	06-27 03:49
Cavaliers vs. Knicks	7	$2.0K	2,222	1,564	+658	Knicks	-$135	05-20 02:47
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27?	1	$1.9K	2,011	0	+2,011	No	+$101	06-27 06:31
Will GNK Dinamo Zagreb win on 2026-07-28?	4	$1.9K	1,313	1,313	+0	No	-$453	07-28 19:39
Timberwolves vs. Spurs	2	$1.9K	2,053	0	+2,053	Spurs	-$21	05-13 02:24
Thunder vs. Spurs	8	$1.9K	2,360	1,000	+1,361	Thunder	-$88	05-23 03:09
Cavaliers vs. Pistons	4	$1.8K	1,901	42	+1,859	Cavaliers	+$17	05-14 03:03
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18?	4	$1.8K	2,021	0	+2,021	Yes	+$204	05-18 15:56
Spurs vs. Timberwolves	4	$1.7K	2,306	652	+1,655	Spurs	-$51	05-16 03:39
Shanghai Sharks vs. Beijing Ducks	3	$1.6K	1,636	83	+1,553	Beijing Ducks	+$6	05-17 13:03
fifwc par fra 2026 07 04 team to advance	1	$1.5K	1,630	0	+1,630	France	+$130	07-04 21:07
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-30?	1	$1.5K	1,613	0	+1,613	No	+$113	06-30 17:21
Will Vålerenga Fotball win on 2026-07-31?	5	$1.4K	1,300	427	+873	No	+$98	07-31 18:24
Shanghai Sharks vs. Zhejiang Lions	5	$1.3K	1,593	367	+1,226	Shanghai Sharks	-$63	05-26 13:14
Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04?	1	$1.3K	1,327	0	+1,327	Yes	+$27	07-04 18:50
Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC win on 2026-10-09?	4	$1.3K	1,094	1,094	+0	No	-$548	10-09 14:53
fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 team total away 2pt5	2	$1.2K	1,818	0	+1,818	Over	+$618	07-18 21:25
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets	3	$1.2K	1,411	0	+1,411	Nuggets	+$213	04-28 03:35
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-09-15?	2	$1.1K	602	602	+0	Yes	+$85	09-15 20:28
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	3	$1.0K	552	552	+0	No	+$41	05-21 04:48
Will FK Crvena zvezda win on 2026-07-21?	2	$1.0K	588	588	+0	Yes	+$41	07-21 19:56
Lakers vs. Rockets	2	$1.0K	689	685	+5	Lakers	-$33	04-25 02:45
nbasl okc den 2026 07 14	6	$1.0K	592	592	+0	Denver Nuggets	-$5	07-15 02:57

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-17 16:44:59	Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-10-17?	No	BUY	26	78¢	$20	0x8be3ba…
10-17 16:33:00	Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-10-17?	Yes	SELL	27	100¢	$27	0xcfd28e…
10-17 16:28:20	Will Brentford FC win on 2026-10-17?	No	SELL	46	100¢	$46	0xdb57fa…
10-17 15:43:09	Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5)	Real Betis Balompié	SELL	36	54¢	$20	0xf7ae9b…
10-17 15:30:59	Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-10-17?	Yes	BUY	27	55¢	$15	0x33f233…
10-17 15:22:36	Will Brentford FC win on 2026-10-17?	No	BUY	46	65¢	$30	0x2a12c8…
10-17 13:49:32	Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-10-17?	Yes	BUY	11	94¢	$10	0x2eeca0…
10-17 13:46:06	Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5)	Real Betis Balompié	BUY	36	55¢	$20	0x9cdbd5…
10-17 13:21:53	Will Everton FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	50	1¢	$0	0x3c79c6…
10-17 13:10:56	Will Everton FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	50	22¢	$11	0xff4924…
10-17 01:20:26	Bucks vs. Pacers	Pacers	BUY	3	77¢	$2	0x9226eb…
10-17 01:19:53	Bucks vs. Pacers	Pacers	BUY	2	80¢	$2	0xda7c18…
10-15 04:22:19	nba den lac 2026 10 14	Clippers	BUY	56	89¢	$50	0x1db0f8…
10-13 15:33:20	Will Slovenia win on 2026-10-13?	Yes	BUY	127	79¢	$100	0x9d33a2…
10-13 01:43:29	Will Red Bull Bragantino vs. Cruzeiro EC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	100	4¢	$4	0x98b71d…
10-13 01:37:11	Spurs vs. Jazz	Jazz	BUY	13	76¢	$10	0xf4791a…
10-13 01:32:57	Will Red Bull Bragantino vs. Cruzeiro EC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	50	8¢	$4	0x8bbc01…
10-13 01:27:39	Will Red Bull Bragantino vs. Cruzeiro EC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	125	12¢	$15	0x9003ec…
10-12 23:15:41	Thunder vs. Hawks	Hawks	BUY	145	69¢	$100	0x8f87fc…
10-12 01:25:33	Bulls vs. Nuggets	Nuggets	BUY	7	71¢	$5	0xb78620…
10-12 01:23:57	Bulls vs. Nuggets	Nuggets	BUY	7	72¢	$5	0xd25411…
10-12 01:21:41	Bulls vs. Nuggets	Nuggets	BUY	15	68¢	$10	0xfc0a90…
10-12 00:33:47	Hurricanes vs. Flyers	Hurricanes	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x4fb4de…
10-12 00:29:11	Magic vs. Cavaliers	Cavaliers	BUY	215	93¢	$200	0xa2012e…
10-11 17:30:33	Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-10-11?	Yes	SELL	38	100¢	$38	0x5eee70…
10-11 17:29:43	Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-10-11?	No	SELL	415	100¢	$415	0xfdbf07…
10-11 16:53:07	Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-10-11?	No	BUY	409	98¢	$400	0xb4fc0c…
10-11 16:51:49	Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-10-11?	Yes	BUY	38	52¢	$20	0xab92d6…
10-11 16:33:01	Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-10-11?	No	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0x29e823…
10-11 16:23:55	Will Rio Ave FC vs. CD Nacional end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	17	30¢	$5	0x40eef4…
10-11 16:23:39	Will Rio Ave FC vs. CD Nacional end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	17	30¢	$5	0x4c1b40…
10-11 16:07:58	Will FC Groningen win on 2026-10-11?	No	SELL	68	8¢	$6	0xd2c882…
10-11 16:01:46	Will FC Groningen win on 2026-10-11?	No	BUY	74	27¢	$20	0x826959…
10-11 15:58:16	Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. RC Deportivo A Coruña end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	25	20¢	$5	0x6dfd7d…
10-11 12:32:46	Will 1. FC Slovácko win on 2026-10-11?	No	BUY	17	60¢	$10	0xb42e25…
10-11 12:25:21	Will 1. FC Slovácko win on 2026-10-11?	No	BUY	52	67¢	$35	0x650aeb…
10-11 12:13:42	Will Como 1907 win on 2026-10-11?	Yes	BUY	8	38¢	$3	0xac27fc…
10-11 12:06:22	Will Como 1907 win on 2026-10-11?	Yes	BUY	75	47¢	$35	0x016a2d…
10-11 04:48:53	Will CF América win on 2026-10-10?	Yes	BUY	32	31¢	$10	0x226dbe…
10-11 03:54:36	Spurs vs. Suns	Spurs	BUY	6	47¢	$3	0x22bd1d…
10-11 03:37:53	Spurs vs. Suns	Spurs	BUY	17	47¢	$8	0x1945aa…
10-10 21:08:34	Clippers vs. Raptors	Raptors	BUY	8	62¢	$5	0xbcbbf1…
10-10 19:51:43	Will FC Lugano win on 2026-10-10?	Yes	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x027ce8…
10-10 19:51:31	Will Maccabi Tel Aviv FC vs. Bnei Sakhnin FC end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	83	100¢	$82	0xa831df…
10-10 18:47:03	Spread: FC Twente (-1.5)	Fortuna Sittard	SELL	7	70¢	$5	0x6d1d1c…
10-10 18:45:07	Will CS Marítimo vs. FC Porto end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	19	31¢	$6	0x2f336a…
10-10 18:39:16	Will CS Marítimo vs. FC Porto end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x91b07f…
10-10 18:39:09	Will CS Marítimo vs. FC Porto end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x57ceb6…
10-10 18:33:57	Spread: FC Twente (-1.5)	Fortuna Sittard	BUY	7	81¢	$6	0x8c8abc…
10-10 18:14:03	Will Maccabi Tel Aviv FC vs. Bnei Sakhnin FC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	16	62¢	$10	0x5a4ab9…
10-10 18:04:07	Will Maccabi Tel Aviv FC vs. Bnei Sakhnin FC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0xd98425…
10-10 18:04:00	Will Maccabi Tel Aviv FC vs. Bnei Sakhnin FC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	55	45¢	$25	0xfc14da…
10-10 17:46:07	Will FC Barcelona vs. Getafe CF end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	250	1¢	$3	0x48a402…
10-10 16:52:40	Will FC Lugano win on 2026-10-10?	Yes	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0x25d5eb…
10-10 16:20:27	Will Go Ahead Eagles win on 2026-10-10?	Yes	BUY	25	12¢	$3	0x6d7dc6…
10-10 15:57:00	Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-10-10?	Yes	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x8d9833…
10-10 15:06:34	Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-10-10?	No	BUY	66	76¢	$50	0x56c4d8…
10-10 14:59:43	Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-10-10?	No	BUY	21	28¢	$6	0xc4edf6…
10-10 04:57:22	Will Tigres de la UANL vs. Deportivo Toluca FC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x870593…
10-10 04:55:28	Will Tigres de la UANL vs. Deportivo Toluca FC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	33	15¢	$5	0x32d1e8…
10-10 04:47:19	Will Deportivo Toluca FC win on 2026-10-09?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xdd76ba…
10-10 04:46:46	Shanghai Rolex Masters: Jiri Lehecka vs Nuno Borges	Jiri Lehecka	BUY	3	89¢	$3	0x6fbef8…
10-10 04:01:45	Wuhan Tennis Open, Qualification: Magdalena Frech vs Moyuka Uchijima	Magdalena Frech	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0xde7222…
10-10 04:01:34	Wuhan Tennis Open, Qualification: Daria Kasatkina vs Viktorija Golubic	Viktorija Golubic	BUY	11	87¢	$10	0x55304d…
10-09 18:52:59	Will Kasımpaşa SK win on 2026-10-09?	Yes	SELL	22	0¢	$0	0x110f80…
10-09 18:30:11	Will Kasımpaşa SK win on 2026-10-09?	Yes	BUY	22	7¢	$1	0xe5bf72…
10-09 14:53:07	Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC win on 2026-10-09?	No	SELL	226	100¢	$226	0x0b1d7a…
10-09 13:34:40	Rockets vs. Mavericks	Rockets	BUY	33	90¢	$30	0xd90eef…
10-09 13:32:55	Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Henan FC end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	41	55¢	$23	0xcc7eea…
10-09 13:11:28	Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC win on 2026-10-09?	Yes	SELL	867	14¢	$125	0x3ca40d…
10-09 13:10:22	Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Henan FC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	41	31¢	$13	0x01eee0…
10-09 13:09:55	Will Henan FC win on 2026-10-09?	Yes	SELL	116	10¢	$12	0xcaee34…
10-09 13:07:24	Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC win on 2026-10-09?	Yes	BUY	867	81¢	$700	0xe3d553…
10-09 12:45:28	Will Henan FC win on 2026-10-09?	Yes	BUY	16	62¢	$10	0xfcfa14…
10-09 11:52:04	Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC win on 2026-10-09?	No	BUY	226	88¢	$200	0x8908b2…
10-09 11:51:07	Will Henan FC win on 2026-10-09?	Yes	BUY	100	60¢	$60	0x0aa23c…
10-09 05:07:38	Kings vs. Lakers	Kings	BUY	213	9¢	$20	0x8f5263…
10-09 00:42:30	Celtics vs. Cavaliers	Celtics	BUY	16	49¢	$8	0x211e5c…
10-09 00:37:42	Will CA Paranaense win on 2026-10-08?	Yes	BUY	17	46¢	$8	0x4b247a…
10-09 00:35:35	Buccaneers vs. Cowboys	Cowboys	BUY	34	87¢	$30	0x1b7121…
10-09 00:31:39	Will Santos FC win on 2026-10-08?	Yes	BUY	58	14¢	$8	0x69a525…
10-09 00:26:29	Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-10-08?	Yes	BUY	25	8¢	$2	0x6b2196…
10-09 00:24:26	Will Santos FC win on 2026-10-08?	Yes	BUY	48	21¢	$10	0x304aa5…
10-09 00:23:56	Will Santos FC vs. CR Flamengo end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	108	71¢	$77	0x92a52a…
10-09 00:17:18	Will Santos FC win on 2026-10-08?	Yes	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0x0a52b3…
10-09 00:13:51	Will Santos FC vs. CR Flamengo end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	48	21¢	$10	0x840cd2…
10-09 00:12:15	Will Santos FC vs. CR Flamengo end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	56	18¢	$10	0x1f03c5…
10-09 00:11:45	Will Santos FC vs. CR Flamengo end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	5	17¢	$1	0x7d6e90…
10-08 03:47:16	Las Vegas Aces vs. Golden State Valkyries	Golden State Valkyries	BUY	106	94¢	$100	0x0e87e1…
10-06 20:47:20	Argentina vs. Benin: O/U 4.5	Over	BUY	24	67¢	$16	0x5a3eb2…
10-06 20:39:02	Will Albania vs. San Marino end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	347	1¢	$5	0x3cc02b…
10-06 18:19:53	Will Niger win on 2026-10-06?	No	SELL	74	93¢	$69	0x950160…
10-06 17:27:17	Will Niger win on 2026-10-06?	No	BUY	74	81¢	$60	0x597c63…
10-05 12:42:59	Shanghai Rolex Masters, Qualification: Jie Cui vs Aleksandar Vukic	Jie Cui	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0x968672…
10-04 15:15:29	Colts vs. Commanders	Colts	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0x2d69cf…
10-04 15:15:05	Will Real Sporting de Gijón win on 2026-10-04?	Yes	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0x3c66c3…
10-04 13:25:05	Will Granada CF win on 2026-10-04?	Yes	BUY	91	11¢	$10	0x455c5b…
09-27 18:02:56	Jets vs. Lions	Lions	BUY	7	71¢	$5	0xed456d…
09-27 03:07:38	Will San Jose Earthquakes win on 2026-09-26?	Yes	BUY	24	84¢	$20	0x01e2d0…
09-27 03:07:32	Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win on 2026-09-26?	Yes	BUY	29	69¢	$20	0xbcf098…