Muffled-Hoof — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$783

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

61.7%

Resolved

204

Trades

353

lifetime

Volume

$5.04K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$14

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-09

last 08-16 18:33

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 79 days

Categories

Other

44% 68% +$73

Sports

36% 86% +$92

Tech

10% 75% +$587

Politics

10% 36% +$30

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-08-16).

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
another critical cloudflare incident by august 31 2026 12	4	$188	216	216	+0	No	-$12	07-29 20:04
will mrbeast say prize during his next youtube video 20260702154826877	6	$184	207	207	+0	No	-$16	07-13 21:37
will the announcers say scare or scared during the argentina vs egypt fifa world cup match 20260707021240078	6	$161	145	145	+0	No	-$1	07-07 17:06
will the announcers say nutmeg or meg during the spain vs austria fifa world cup match 20260701163439806 536	10	$126	1,702	1,702	+0	No	-$22	07-02 23:03
Will there be 5 or more ChatGPT outages in July 2026?	2	$120	143	143	+0	No	+$0	07-28 07:20
Will there be exactly 4 ChatGPT outages in July 2026?	2	$119	141	141	+0	Yes	-$1	07-28 07:20
another critical cloudflare incident by september 30 2026 2	2	$95	106	106	+0	No	-$5	08-12 15:06
will green be said during the next episode of the lemonade stand podcast 20260709163957180	2	$80	70	66	+4	No	-$3	07-16 00:25
will elon post texas on x this week 20260703150058745	3	$77	80	0	+80	Yes	+$3	07-11 08:31
will trump post gold or golden on truth social this week 20260717142647646	2	$74	104	0	+104	Yes	+$30	07-20 11:04
will red be said during the next episode of the lemonade stand podcast 20260731210500903	1	$70	90	0	+90	Yes	+$20	08-05 12:57
will blue be said during the next episode of the lemonade stand podcast 20260731210500904	1	$70	113	0	+113	No	+$43	08-05 12:57
will elon post claude on x this week 20260717142156669	1	$70	412	0	+412	Yes	+$342	07-21 16:00
will china or chinese be said during the next episode of the lemonade stand podcast 20260715171600442	1	$70	76	0	+76	Yes	+$6	07-22 20:00
will openai be said during the first joe rogan experience of the week of august 3 20260731210932764	1	$70	72	0	+72	No	+$2	08-05 17:00
will mrbeast say dollar 5 times during his next youtube video 20260729175811861	1	$70	74	0	+74	Yes	+$4	08-08 16:00
will prediction be said during the next episode of the lemonade stand podcast 20260731210500899	1	$70	76	0	+76	Yes	-$70	08-05 12:57
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?	14	$66	737	737	-0	Yes	-$24	05-03 18:31
will elon post soccer on x this week 20260710173822735	2	$62	235	11	+224	No	-$62	07-20 08:07
another critical cloudflare incident by july 31 2026 12	2	$61	110	110	+0	No	-$39	07-28 21:04
will the announcers say crossbar during the belgium vs senegal fifa world cup match 20260630205128580	2	$58	53	53	+0	Yes	-$2	07-01 20:20
will spy be said during the first joe rogan experience of the week of july 27 20260723172025071	1	$50	208	0	+208	Yes	+$158	07-28 17:00
will left be said during the first joe rogan experience of the week of july 27 20260723172025075	1	$50	54	0	+54	Yes	+$4	07-28 17:00
will the announcers say hot or heat during the norway vs england fifa world cup match 20260710011543752	1	$50	54	0	+54	Yes	+$4	07-11 21:02
will nvidia be said during the next episode of the all in podcast 20260707174212418	1	$50	55	0	+55	Yes	+$5	07-11 02:31
will software be said during the next episode of the all in podcast 20260707174212425	1	$50	55	0	+55	Yes	+$5	07-11 02:31
will the announcers say nations league or nation league during the france vs spain fifa world cup match 20260713142716371	1	$50	71	0	+71	Yes	+$21	07-14 19:07
will the announcers say what a save during the france vs morocco fifa world cup match 20260708172420746	1	$50	60	0	+60	Yes	+$10	07-09 20:05
will the announcers say penalty shootout during the france vs spain fifa world cup match 20260713142716378	1	$50	62	0	+62	Yes	+$12	07-14 19:18
will stock market be said during the next episode of the all in podcast 20260731211505809	1	$50	52	0	+52	No	+$2	08-08 01:31

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-16 18:33:25	Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from August 10 - August 16?	No	SELL	21	100¢	$21	0x53ec89…
08-15 11:11:18	Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from August 10 - August 16?	No	BUY	21	94¢	$20	0xd2b8c5…
08-12 15:06:52	another critical cloudflare incident by september 30 2026 2	Yes	SELL	106	42¢	$45	0xfabf70…
08-12 15:04:48	another critical cloudflare incident by september 30 2026 2	Yes	BUY	106	47¢	$50	0xd352d2…
08-09 15:35:43	Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from August 3 - August 9?	No	SELL	28	44¢	$12	0x58691d…
08-09 15:24:03	Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from August 3 - August 9?	No	BUY	28	71¢	$20	0x77fd60…
08-09 06:06:40	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C on August 9?	No	BUY	3	70¢	$2	0xd64b85…
08-09 06:00:16	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 32°C on August 9?	No	BUY	2	82¢	$2	0xb88ced…
08-09 04:05:46	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on August 9?	No	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0x54c6e3…
08-08 16:00:25	will mrbeast say dollar 5 times during his next youtube video 20260729175811861	Yes	BUY	74	95¢	$70	0xf8f1b1…
08-08 16:00:25	will mrbeast say hundred or thousand or million 10 times during his next youtube video 20260729175811860	Yes	BUY	35	88¢	$31	0xf40eb0…
08-08 03:30:10	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 35°C on August 8?	No	BUY	2	85¢	$2	0x9c3818…
08-08 01:31:36	will red be said during the next episode of the all in podcast 20260731211505806	No	BUY	25	77¢	$19	0x52c410…
08-08 01:31:36	will blue be said during the next episode of the all in podcast 20260731211505807	No	BUY	23	80¢	$18	0x22af59…
08-08 01:31:36	will stock market be said during the next episode of the all in podcast 20260731211505809	No	BUY	52	96¢	$50	0x1128f0…
08-05 17:00:09	will alien be said during the first joe rogan experience of the week of august 3 20260731210932768	No	BUY	12	97¢	$12	0xa36474…
08-05 17:00:09	will spy be said during the first joe rogan experience of the week of august 3 20260731210932766	No	BUY	10	97¢	$9	0x8f5294…
08-05 17:00:09	will dude be said 20 times during the first joe rogan experience of the week of august 3 20260731210932760	No	BUY	12	97¢	$12	0x663774…
08-05 17:00:09	will world cup be said during the first joe rogan experience of the week of august 3 20260731210932767	No	BUY	9	97¢	$8	0x5b17f3…
08-05 17:00:09	will openai be said during the first joe rogan experience of the week of august 3 20260731210932764	No	BUY	72	97¢	$70	0x41685e…
08-05 12:57:38	will red be said during the next episode of the lemonade stand podcast 20260731210500903	Yes	BUY	90	78¢	$70	0xcdabf5…
08-05 12:57:38	will trump be said 5 times during the next episode of the lemonade stand podcast 20260731210427881	Yes	BUY	47	94¢	$44	0x9235ab…
08-05 12:57:38	will prediction be said during the next episode of the lemonade stand podcast 20260731210500899	No	BUY	76	93¢	$70	0x41e90a…
08-05 12:57:38	will blue be said during the next episode of the lemonade stand podcast 20260731210500904	No	BUY	113	62¢	$70	0x3eedd4…
08-05 12:57:36	will ai or artificial intelligence be said 10 times during the next episode of the lemonade stand podcast 20260731210500896	Yes	BUY	16	92¢	$15	0x88abfa…
08-05 12:57:36	will experimental be said during the next episode of the lemonade stand podcast 20260731210500898	No	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0x2d8524…
08-05 07:49:02	Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from August 3 - August 9?	No	SELL	43	43¢	$19	0xe5f0c9…
08-05 06:04:42	Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from August 3 - August 9?	No	BUY	43	46¢	$20	0x2908cf…
08-03 16:39:32	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on August 3?	No	BUY	36	55¢	$20	0x3dfa78…
08-02 18:55:18	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 77°F or below on August 2?	No	SELL	22	99¢	$22	0x385a61…
08-02 16:55:39	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on August 2?	No	SELL	24	99¢	$24	0x915436…
08-02 16:19:59	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on August 2?	No	BUY	24	84¢	$20	0x146b98…
08-02 09:17:21	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 77°F or below on August 2?	No	BUY	22	91¢	$20	0xb5a089…
08-02 04:06:23	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on August 2?	No	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x036b65…
08-02 04:00:59	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 32°C on August 2?	No	BUY	2	93¢	$2	0xfb2789…
08-02 03:06:35	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on August 2?	No	BUY	3	69¢	$2	0x4b2a6d…
08-01 16:53:50	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on August 1?	No	SELL	23	99¢	$22	0x457f62…
08-01 16:23:44	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on August 1?	No	BUY	23	88¢	$20	0xe245af…
08-01 02:06:35	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on August 1?	No	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0xdefbbf…
08-01 00:07:03	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on August 1?	No	BUY	2	87¢	$2	0xcb0418…
07-31 18:30:30	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on August 1?	No	BUY	3	69¢	$2	0x22f8fd…
07-29 20:04:00	another critical cloudflare incident by august 31 2026 12	Yes	SELL	107	41¢	$44	0xbc9d8a…
07-29 20:03:45	another critical cloudflare incident by august 31 2026 12	Yes	BUY	107	47¢	$50	0x5c13b2…
07-29 15:48:23	another critical cloudflare incident by august 31 2026 12	Yes	SELL	109	41¢	$45	0x098a3c…
07-29 02:07:30	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on July 29?	No	BUY	2	87¢	$2	0xda9481…
07-28 21:04:08	another critical cloudflare incident by july 31 2026 12	Yes	SELL	110	10¢	$11	0x6b8dd1…
07-28 17:57:26	another critical cloudflare incident by july 31 2026 12	Yes	BUY	110	45¢	$50	0xcfb145…
07-28 17:57:26	another critical cloudflare incident by august 31 2026 12	Yes	BUY	109	46¢	$50	0x1b1009…
07-28 17:06:53	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on July 29?	No	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0xb26d22…
07-28 17:00:07	will crazy be said during the first joe rogan experience of the week of july 27 20260723172025079	Yes	BUY	40	95¢	$38	0xe649f2…
07-28 17:00:07	will spy be said during the first joe rogan experience of the week of july 27 20260723172025071	Yes	BUY	208	24¢	$50	0x6840f8…
07-28 17:00:07	will red be said during the first joe rogan experience of the week of july 27 20260723172025076	Yes	BUY	28	81¢	$23	0x369320…
07-28 17:00:05	will people be said 100 times during the first joe rogan experience of the week of july 27 20260723172025066 774	Yes	BUY	41	97¢	$39	0xd807ee…
07-28 17:00:05	will left be said during the first joe rogan experience of the week of july 27 20260723172025075	Yes	BUY	54	92¢	$50	0x3e6ea9…
07-28 07:20:57	Will there be 5 or more ChatGPT outages in July 2026?	Yes	SELL	143	42¢	$60	0x3bba8b…
07-28 07:20:52	Will there be exactly 4 ChatGPT outages in July 2026?	No	SELL	141	42¢	$59	0xc4603b…
07-27 19:05:16	Will there be 5 or more ChatGPT outages in July 2026?	Yes	BUY	143	42¢	$60	0xb7ea6f…
07-27 19:05:16	Will there be exactly 4 ChatGPT outages in July 2026?	No	BUY	141	43¢	$60	0x07f412…
07-26 18:53:15	Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on July 26?	No	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0x42454f…
07-26 18:51:15	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on July 26?	No	BUY	2	85¢	$2	0x6d8d71…
07-26 13:00:46	Will there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 20 - July 26?	No	SELL	25	53¢	$13	0x49caf1…
07-26 11:04:28	Will there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 20 - July 26?	No	BUY	25	81¢	$20	0x8b6e4a…
07-25 19:05:12	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on July 25?	No	BUY	2	91¢	$2	0xbd7366…
07-25 16:00:24	will mrbeast say hundred or thousand or million 5 times during his next youtube video 20260702154826869	Yes	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0x397d66…
07-24 15:33:52	Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on July 24?	No	SELL	7	59¢	$4	0xe322bb…
07-24 15:21:00	Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 69°F or below on July 24?	Yes	BUY	855	1¢	$5	0x9c7a6e…
07-24 15:20:58	Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on July 24?	No	BUY	7	72¢	$5	0x3821f7…
07-24 15:20:31	Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 57°F or below on July 24?	Yes	BUY	1,049	0¢	$5	0x651e98…
07-24 15:20:30	Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on July 24?	No	BUY	147	3¢	$5	0x01eb70…
07-23 14:39:13	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 27°C on July 23?	No	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0x467cce…
07-22 20:00:33	will china or chinese be said during the next episode of the lemonade stand podcast 20260715171600442	Yes	BUY	76	92¢	$70	0x969939…
07-21 16:00:45	will elon post claude on x this week 20260717142156669	Yes	BUY	412	17¢	$70	0x0d6338…
07-21 12:22:19	Will there be exactly 3 ChatGPT outages in July 2026?	No	BUY	71	56¢	$40	0x67f223…
07-20 11:04:55	will trump post gold or golden on truth social this week 20260717142647646	Yes	BUY	4	92¢	$4	0x9d430c…
07-20 10:45:45	will trump post gold or golden on truth social this week 20260717142647646	Yes	BUY	100	70¢	$70	0x5176da…
07-20 08:07:24	will elon post soccer on x this week 20260710173822735	Yes	SELL	11	0¢	$0	0x82e930…
07-19 21:47:51	will elon post soccer on x this week 20260710173822735	Yes	BUY	235	26¢	$62	0x63814f…
07-16 00:25:58	will green be said during the next episode of the lemonade stand podcast 20260709163957180	Yes	SELL	66	59¢	$39	0x35ce93…
07-15 19:36:19	will green be said during the next episode of the lemonade stand podcast 20260709163957180	Yes	BUY	70	59¢	$41	0x3a507b…
07-15 19:36:19	will china or chinese be said during the next episode of the lemonade stand podcast 20260709163957184	Yes	BUY	11	89¢	$10	0x1acbe1…
07-14 20:40:32	will the announcers say depth during the france vs spain fifa world cup match 20260713142716366	Yes	BUY	20	72¢	$14	0x304662…
07-14 19:18:32	will the announcers say penalty shootout during the france vs spain fifa world cup match 20260713142716378	Yes	BUY	62	80¢	$50	0x299aec…
07-14 19:07:26	will the announcers say nations league or nation league during the france vs spain fifa world cup match 20260713142716371	Yes	BUY	71	70¢	$50	0xcffee6…
07-13 21:37:32	will mrbeast say prize during his next youtube video 20260702154826877	Yes	SELL	158	37¢	$58	0x95def8…
07-12 22:32:50	will elon post claude on x this week 20260703150058742	Yes	BUY	241	10¢	$24	0xd4eadb…
07-12 19:50:59	will mrbeast say prize during his next youtube video 20260702154826877	Yes	SELL	2	40¢	$1	0x18da7b…
07-11 23:09:55	will the announcers say cleat during the norway vs england fifa world cup match 20260710011543757	Yes	BUY	30	50¢	$15	0x7be3c6…
07-11 22:38:11	will the announcers say corner 22 times during the norway vs england fifa world cup match 20260710214621969	Yes	BUY	6	95¢	$6	0xf5fddc…
07-11 22:36:32	will the announcers say cleat during the norway vs england fifa world cup match 20260710011543757	Yes	BUY	45	66¢	$30	0x6aaa65…
07-11 22:18:11	will the announcers say what a save during the norway vs england fifa world cup match 20260710011543761	Yes	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0xbaeda6…
07-11 22:07:50	will the announcers say suspension or suspended during the norway vs england fifa world cup match 20260710011543753	Yes	BUY	10	83¢	$8	0xc2662d…
07-11 21:02:46	will the announcers say hot or heat during the norway vs england fifa world cup match 20260710011543752	Yes	BUY	54	93¢	$50	0x863c6a…
07-11 17:52:59	will mrbeast say prize during his next youtube video 20260702154826877	Yes	SELL	4	50¢	$2	0x61f273…
07-11 15:54:08	will mrbeast say prize during his next youtube video 20260702154826877	Yes	SELL	23	43¢	$10	0x9f7978…
07-11 10:58:43	will mrbeast say prize during his next youtube video 20260702154826877	Yes	SELL	20	62¢	$12	0xfc44b5…
07-11 10:56:50	will mrbeast say prize during his next youtube video 20260702154826877	Yes	BUY	207	48¢	$100	0xc2308e…
07-11 08:31:19	will elon post texas on x this week 20260703150058745	Yes	BUY	60	98¢	$59	0x48c47a…
07-11 08:31:01	will elon post texas on x this week 20260703150058745	Yes	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x10787b…
07-11 02:31:07	will nvidia be said during the next episode of the all in podcast 20260707174212418	Yes	BUY	55	91¢	$50	0xacbf66…
07-11 02:31:07	will software be said during the next episode of the all in podcast 20260707174212425	Yes	BUY	55	91¢	$50	0x3df547…