Alarmed-Majority — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

+$3

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved (90d)

Trades (90d)

6 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$8 lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

4 positions

First seen

2026-05-07

last 05-15 01:20

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

54% 100% +$3

Crypto

19% — —

Politics

14% — —

Sports

13% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	+2	$2	93¢	$2	+$0	05-13 08:51
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?	No	+2	$2	90¢	$2	$-0	05-13 08:54
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31?	No	+1	$1	99¢	$1	+$0	05-13 08:54
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates	Pittsburgh Pirates	+2	$1	56¢	$1	+$0	05-15 01:20

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-15 01:20:27	Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates	Pittsburgh Pirates	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x609c1f…
05-13 08:56:21	Valencia: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Miomir Kecmanovic	Miomir Kecmanovic	BUY	2	85¢	$2	0xe236ec…
05-13 08:54:50	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x866f55…
05-13 08:54:06	Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2	91¢	$2	0x698673…
05-13 08:51:25	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	BUY	2	91¢	$2	0xff3986…
05-07 02:38:16	Francavilla: Jay Clarke vs Nishesh Basavareddy	Jay Clarke	BUY	4	30¢	$1	0x86db9d…

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	1	$2	2	+2	open	—	05-13 08:51
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?	1	$2	2	+2	open	—	05-13 08:54
Valencia: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Miomir Kecmanovic	1	$2	2	+2	Miomir Kecmanovic	+$0	05-13 08:56
Francavilla: Jay Clarke vs Nishesh Basavareddy	1	$1	4	+4	Jay Clarke	+$3	05-07 02:38
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31?	1	$1	1	+1	open	—	05-13 08:54
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates	1	$1	2	+2	open	—	05-15 01:20