Imperfect-Density — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

+$53

Unrealized P&L

-$18

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved (90d)

Trades (90d)

459 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$11.6K

$75.6K lifetime

Avg / trade

$165

Open exposure

$482

1 position

First seen

2026-04-24

last 10-31 15:34

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 72 days

Categories

Other

96% 100% +$140

Crypto

2% 100% +$3

Sports

1% 100% +$22

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

12 active days in 12wk • peak 12 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes		+500	$500	96¢	$482	-$18	10-29 10:32

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 8 to August 10, 2026?	1	$1.6K	1,559	+1,559	Yes	+$2	08-10 15:02
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?	1	$1.5K	1,552	+1,552	Yes	+$2	07-28 15:35
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on May 31?	1	$1.5K	1,497	+1,497	Yes	+$1	05-31 11:28
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?	2	$1.5K	1,486	+1,486	No	+$6	05-26 15:59
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026?	1	$1.5K	1,455	+1,455	Yes	+$1	04-27 15:24
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C or higher on April 25?	5	$1.5K	1,453	+1,453	No	+$2	04-25 07:53
ted cruz of tweets april 17 april 24 2026 160 179	1	$1.5K	1,452	+1,452	Yes	+$1	04-24 16:03
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on June 2?	1	$1.4K	1,453	+1,453	Yes	+$3	06-02 09:16
Will CZ post 60-79 posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026?	1	$1.4K	1,362	+1,362	No	+$3	05-05 08:53
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on July 11?	2	$1.3K	1,328	+1,328	No	+$1	07-11 07:40
Will LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Lakers in 2026-27?	3	$1.2K	1,205	+1,205	No	+$7	07-16 10:20
Will the highest temperature in Zhengzhou be 29°C on August 28?	3	$1.1K	1,060	+1,060	No	+$2	08-28 06:26
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 3?	1	$1.0K	1,003	+1,003	No	+$1	06-03 06:07
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	1	$1000	1,001	+1,001	Yes	+$1	05-22 15:52
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C or below on June 29?	1	$999	1,000	+1,000	No	+$1	06-29 03:43
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 30?	1	$999	1,000	+1,000	No	+$1	06-30 03:33
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on July 1?	1	$997	998	+998	No	+$1	07-01 06:10
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C on May 29?	1	$989	990	+990	No	+$1	05-29 08:35
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 4?	22	$904	906	+906	No	+$1	06-04 06:01
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 13?	2	$821	822	+822	Yes	+$1	05-13 09:32
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 38°C on July 29?	2	$799	800	+800	No	+$1	07-29 07:28
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C or higher on May 28?	2	$786	787	+787	Yes	+$1	05-28 05:09
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on May 6?	2	$720	722	+722	No	+$2	05-06 08:33
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on May 11?	1	$695	695	+695	No	+$1	05-11 09:41
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	5	$670	709	+709	Yes	+$39	10-27 16:08
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026?	3	$630	631	+631	No	+$1	05-25 15:52
Will the highest temperature in Zhengzhou be 29°C on August 11?	1	$608	609	+609	No	+$1	08-11 08:11
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on May 9?	2	$603	603	+603	No	+$1	05-09 08:16
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on July 6?	6	$599	600	+600	No	+$1	07-06 07:51
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on May 10?	1	$589	589	+589	No	+$1	05-10 08:29

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-31 15:34:22	Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x253992…
10-31 02:06:12	Knicks vs. 76ers	76ers	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0x9bba75…
10-31 02:06:01	Knicks vs. 76ers	76ers	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xf772a2…
10-31 02:05:55	Knicks vs. 76ers	76ers	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x52b928…
10-31 02:05:39	Knicks vs. 76ers	76ers	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x7e70f4…
10-31 02:03:58	Knicks vs. 76ers	76ers	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x2598d7…
10-31 02:03:49	Knicks vs. 76ers	76ers	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x568a79…
10-31 02:03:25	Knicks vs. 76ers	76ers	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x54e319…
10-31 01:22:03	Pistons vs. Nets	Pistons	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0x5e2833…
10-31 01:21:34	Bulls vs. Celtics	Celtics	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x2f8014…
10-31 01:21:16	Hornets vs. Wizards	Wizards	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xbdf3fb…
10-29 12:31:10	Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	200	100¢	$200	0x5020ed…
10-29 10:34:41	Will Bitcoin reach $102,500 in October?	No	BUY	500	100¢	$500	0x6def0a…
10-29 10:32:35	Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	100¢	$500	0x0a79e0…
10-27 16:08:08	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	200	94¢	$189	0xcf88ba…
10-27 16:06:54	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	44	94¢	$42	0x2bbf3d…
10-27 16:05:57	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	109	95¢	$103	0x90f249…
10-27 16:05:08	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	200	94¢	$189	0x68bafe…
08-31 16:51:13	Will the lowest temperature in Jinan be 13°C on September 1?	No	BUY	160	100¢	$160	0xa2d7a4…
08-31 16:51:07	Will the lowest temperature in Jinan be 12°C or below on September 1?	No	BUY	160	100¢	$160	0x333e2a…
08-28 06:35:30	Will the highest temperature in Jinan be 19°C on August 29?	No	BUY	92	100¢	$92	0x46d753…
08-28 06:35:09	Will the highest temperature in Jinan be 18°C on August 29?	No	BUY	105	100¢	$105	0x4800b3…
08-28 06:35:00	Will the highest temperature in Jinan be 17°C on August 29?	No	BUY	105	100¢	$105	0x5bd81c…
08-28 06:34:52	Will the highest temperature in Jinan be 16°C or below on August 29?	No	BUY	105	100¢	$105	0x7c7575…
08-28 06:26:12	Will the highest temperature in Zhengzhou be 29°C on August 28?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x92082a…
08-28 06:26:03	Will the highest temperature in Zhengzhou be 29°C on August 28?	No	BUY	500	100¢	$499	0x9fab0a…
08-28 06:25:54	Will the highest temperature in Zhengzhou be 29°C on August 28?	No	BUY	460	100¢	$459	0xaeb6da…
08-26 08:29:34	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on August 26?	No	BUY	443	100¢	$443	0x644d46…
08-25 06:13:43	Will the highest temperature in Jinan be 17°C on August 26?	No	BUY	121	100¢	$121	0xe524d6…
08-25 06:13:24	Will the highest temperature in Jinan be 16°C or below on August 26?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x289593…
08-25 06:12:58	Will the highest temperature in Jinan be 16°C or below on August 26?	No	BUY	150	100¢	$150	0x9744c8…
08-25 06:11:03	Will the highest temperature in Zhengzhou be 25°C on August 26?	No	BUY	185	100¢	$185	0x028bd3…
08-25 06:10:54	Will the highest temperature in Zhengzhou be 24°C on August 26?	No	BUY	185	100¢	$185	0x9c2d3f…
08-25 06:09:40	Will the lowest temperature in Zhengzhou be 23°C on August 25?	No	BUY	112	100¢	$112	0xfd659f…
08-25 06:08:58	Will the lowest temperature in Zhengzhou be 22°C on August 25?	No	BUY	131	100¢	$131	0x41e6b6…
08-25 06:08:51	Will the lowest temperature in Zhengzhou be 21°C on August 25?	No	BUY	61	100¢	$61	0xa8915e…
08-25 06:08:42	Will the lowest temperature in Zhengzhou be 20°C on August 25?	No	BUY	55	100¢	$55	0x08b7b0…
08-25 06:08:36	Will the lowest temperature in Zhengzhou be 18°C on August 25?	No	BUY	85	100¢	$85	0x6a06bb…
08-25 06:08:07	Will the highest temperature in Zhengzhou be 23°C on August 26?	No	BUY	185	100¢	$185	0x1dea49…
08-25 06:08:00	Will the highest temperature in Zhengzhou be 22°C or below on August 26?	No	BUY	185	100¢	$185	0x70256c…
08-16 09:50:25	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 16?	Yes	BUY	65	100¢	$65	0x134d5b…
08-16 09:49:51	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 37°C or higher on August 16?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$1	0x6f89a1…
08-16 09:49:49	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 37°C or higher on August 16?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x48fb1d…
08-16 09:48:43	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on August 16?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x0196ff…
08-16 09:48:19	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on August 16?	No	BUY	150	100¢	$150	0xf7606b…
08-15 17:05:57	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on August 15?	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xd01474…
08-15 17:05:57	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on August 15?	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x3efffc…
08-15 15:11:28	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on August 15?	Yes	BUY	60	100¢	$60	0xc40cdb…
08-15 15:00:03	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on August 15?	Yes	BUY	51	100¢	$51	0x422cdf…
08-15 14:36:04	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 13 to August 15, 2026?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xb08a23…
08-15 14:32:25	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on August 15?	No	BUY	47	100¢	$47	0x62c4fa…
08-15 14:29:40	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on August 15?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xfbbde1…
08-15 14:22:33	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on August 15?	No	BUY	60	100¢	$60	0x1a3ab8…
08-15 14:21:46	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on August 15?	Yes	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0xef2ecd…
08-14 15:25:07	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x751503…
08-14 08:41:00	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on August 14?	No	BUY	200	100¢	$200	0xb7d394…
08-14 08:10:22	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on August 14?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xae49c5…
08-14 07:58:19	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 14?	No	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0xf77841…
08-14 07:12:57	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C or higher on August 14?	No	BUY	75	100¢	$75	0xbff5e6…
08-14 06:55:39	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on August 14?	No	BUY	157	100¢	$157	0x988258…
08-14 06:53:31	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 33°C on August 14?	No	BUY	39	100¢	$38	0xf2704f…
08-14 06:52:52	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on August 14?	No	BUY	140	100¢	$140	0x5e3747…
08-12 11:43:31	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C on August 12?	Yes	BUY	356	100¢	$356	0x0a8f7e…
08-12 07:17:28	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C on August 12?	No	BUY	200	100¢	$200	0x820f8e…
08-12 07:16:54	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 34°C on August 12?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xe11068…
08-12 07:15:34	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 12?	No	BUY	150	100¢	$150	0xafbe09…
08-12 05:37:37	Will the highest temperature in Jinan be 19°C on August 13?	No	BUY	150	100¢	$150	0x94bd09…
08-12 05:36:54	Will the highest temperature in Zhengzhou be 28°C on August 12?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x16f42f…
08-12 02:38:33	Will the highest temperature in Zhengzhou be 29°C on August 12?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0xdb6ba3…
08-11 14:25:15	Will the highest temperature in Jinan be 19°C on August 12?	No	BUY	80	100¢	$80	0xfe7480…
08-11 14:24:48	Will the highest temperature in Jinan be 18°C on August 12?	No	BUY	170	100¢	$170	0x7adf88…
08-11 12:50:15	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 37°C on August 11?	No	BUY	183	100¢	$183	0x85bf7e…
08-11 12:14:31	Will the highest temperature in Zhengzhou be 28°C on August 11?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x5ff1ab…
08-11 12:14:22	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 37°C on August 11?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x703865…
08-11 12:05:25	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 39°C or higher on August 11?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x2eb131…
08-11 11:58:04	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 37°C on August 11?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xc5a439…
08-11 11:39:21	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 39°C or higher on August 11?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x64a36e…
08-11 10:51:40	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 37°C on August 11?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xbaae2e…
08-11 10:04:12	Will the highest temperature in Jinan be 16°C or below on August 12?	No	BUY	52	100¢	$52	0x21d35b…
08-11 08:58:04	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on August 11?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x6dd783…
08-11 08:42:42	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on August 11?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x845479…
08-11 08:14:40	Will the highest temperature in Jinan be 16°C or below on August 12?	No	BUY	204	100¢	$203	0xf5450e…
08-11 08:13:30	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 33°C on August 11?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0xe502f5…
08-11 08:11:22	Will the highest temperature in Zhengzhou be 29°C on August 11?	No	BUY	609	100¢	$608	0x13f160…
08-11 08:10:43	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on August 11?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xf25775…
08-11 08:10:39	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on August 11?	No	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0xf5ec9b…
08-11 08:09:51	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on August 11?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x6fccb5…
08-11 08:09:49	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on August 11?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x1e7882…
08-10 15:02:39	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 8 to August 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,559	100¢	$1,557	0x7e97f0…
08-02 08:39:59	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on August 2?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x669fe6…
08-02 07:47:06	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C on August 2?	No	BUY	31	100¢	$31	0xcdfa60…
08-02 07:11:45	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 36°C on August 2?	No	BUY	170	100¢	$169	0xd296f2…
08-02 06:58:42	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 39°C on August 2?	No	BUY	378	100¢	$377	0x38fde8…
08-02 06:56:39	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 36°C on August 2?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x120f85…
08-02 04:15:51	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 36°C on August 2?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x4945bc…
08-02 04:15:50	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 36°C on August 2?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x85f43e…
08-02 04:15:50	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 36°C on August 2?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x273e39…
08-02 04:09:57	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on August 2?	No	BUY	150	100¢	$150	0xed1961…
08-02 04:05:05	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C or higher on August 2?	No	BUY	225	100¢	$224	0xcaae47…
08-02 04:03:42	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 36°C on August 2?	No	BUY	196	100¢	$195	0xf8fa62…