Fickle-Reasoning — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$553

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

93.7%

Resolved

Trades

692

lifetime

Volume

$121.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$175

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-09

last 06-05 00:45

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Crypto

93% 93% $-553

Other

5% — —

Sports

2% — —

Politics

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

35 active days in 12wk • peak 76 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will bitcoin reach 80k in march 2026	4	$3.3K	1,960	1,960	+0	open	—	03-30 01:14
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?	15	$3.3K	1,919	1,919	+0	open	—	05-22 04:16
ethereum up or down april 19 2026 9pm et	2	$2.4K	1,220	1,220	+0	open	—	04-20 03:10
will bitcoin dip to 80k in january 2026	2	$2.2K	1,145	1,145	+0	open	—	01-29 00:59
will bitcoin reach 100k in january 2026	2	$2.2K	1,451	1,451	+0	open	—	01-19 00:55
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April?	2	$2.1K	1,067	1,062	+5	open	—	04-29 05:50
sea cre bol 2026 04 05 bol	4	$2.0K	1,029	1,028	+1	open	—	04-05 14:57
bitcoin up or down march 31 2026 11pm et	3	$2.0K	1,013	1,012	+0	open	—	04-01 04:47
highest temperature in shanghai on april 1 2026 17c	3	$2.0K	1,012	1,011	+2	open	—	04-01 03:31
btc updown 15m 1775095200	4	$2.0K	1,043	1,019	+24	open	—	04-02 02:15
will bitcoin reach 73k on april 12	2	$2.0K	986	985	+1	open	—	04-13 06:20
bitcoin up or down on april 1 2026	4	$1.8K	934	933	+1	open	—	04-01 14:52
will bitcoin reach 70k february 23 march 1	2	$1.6K	825	825	+0	open	—	03-02 05:06
btc updown 15m 1775526300	2	$1.6K	788	787	+1	open	—	04-07 01:58
will bitcoin reach 90k in march 2026	2	$1.6K	804	804	+0	open	—	03-20 03:48
btc updown 5m 1776390000	1	$1.3K	1,329	0	+1,329	open	—	04-17 01:44
eth updown 5m 1776393300	1	$1.3K	1,278	0	+1,278	open	—	04-17 02:38
eth updown 5m 1776348900	1	$1.3K	1,271	0	+1,271	open	—	04-16 14:17
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?	2	$1.2K	642	642	+0	open	—	05-28 13:38
btc updown 15m 1775484000	4	$1.2K	628	626	+2	open	—	04-06 14:13
eth updown 5m 1776320100	2	$1.2K	1,211	0	+1,211	open	—	04-16 06:19
btc updown 15m 1775142900	4	$1.1K	661	657	+4	open	—	04-02 15:28
eth updown 5m 1776310200	1	$1.1K	1,151	0	+1,151	open	—	04-16 03:34
btc updown 5m 1776306600	1	$1.1K	1,151	0	+1,151	open	—	04-16 02:34
eth updown 15m 1775655900	2	$1.1K	1,163	0	+1,163	open	—	04-08 14:00
eth updown 15m 1775633400	1	$1.1K	1,126	0	+1,126	open	—	04-08 07:44
will bitcoin dip to 84k january 26 1	1	$1.1K	1,219	0	+1,219	open	—	01-29 00:59
btc updown 5m 1776306300	1	$1.1K	1,127	0	+1,127	open	—	04-16 02:29
eth updown 5m 1776396000	3	$1.1K	1,450	0	+1,450	open	—	04-17 03:25
eth updown 15m 1775708100	1	$1.1K	1,090	0	+1,090	open	—	04-09 04:28

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-05 00:45:55	will bitcoin dip to 58k june 1 7 2026	No	BUY	106	94¢	$100	0xd28915…
05-28 13:38:43	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?	No	SELL	642	100¢	$641	0xd86324…
05-22 04:17:57	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?	No	BUY	642	93¢	$597	0x09d159…
05-22 04:16:53	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?	No	SELL	556	99¢	$548	0x6c07eb…
05-14 02:23:21	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?	No	BUY	556	90¢	$500	0x00ae22…
05-14 02:19:56	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Down	BUY	131	76¢	$100	0xf5f40a…
05-14 02:14:02	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Down	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0x36bdc9…
05-14 02:09:45	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	Up	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0xba3c6b…
05-14 02:08:46	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	Up	BUY	11	93¢	$10	0x4e6f7d…
05-14 01:59:20	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Down	BUY	203	99¢	$200	0xed1661…
05-14 01:53:41	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xa8d697…
05-14 01:48:43	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Up	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0xb6a99f…
05-14 01:44:58	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Up	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0x79d7e4…
05-14 01:44:52	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Up	BUY	102	98¢	$100	0xa34c38…
05-14 01:44:47	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Up	BUY	103	97¢	$100	0x4d8d1c…
05-14 01:39:22	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Down	BUY	102	98¢	$100	0x00da98…
05-14 01:39:18	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Down	BUY	26	98¢	$25	0x91d6a3…
05-14 01:19:53	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Down	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0x796fae…
05-14 01:19:44	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Down	BUY	26	97¢	$25	0x8bfea2…
05-14 01:19:23	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Down	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0xc8247e…
05-14 01:14:52	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Down	BUY	103	97¢	$100	0x125102…
05-14 01:14:41	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Down	BUY	108	93¢	$100	0x7d39b6…
05-14 01:04:46	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Up	BUY	102	98¢	$100	0xf99d8f…
05-14 01:04:41	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Up	BUY	26	96¢	$25	0xddc674…
05-14 00:59:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Up	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0x90a45e…
05-14 00:35:47	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?	No	SELL	706	89¢	$628	0x061b58…
05-13 07:41:57	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?	No	BUY	706	85¢	$600	0x8c9efb…
05-13 07:40:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Up	BUY	355	85¢	$300	0xa12ab4…
05-13 07:39:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Up	BUY	306	98¢	$300	0x58b45b…
05-13 07:29:56	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Up	BUY	204	98¢	$200	0x08c6c9…
05-13 07:28:16	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Up	BUY	53	95¢	$50	0xe7e252…
05-13 07:28:00	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Up	SELL	11	93¢	$11	0x477cbe…
05-13 07:27:20	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Up	BUY	11	87¢	$10	0x45dc0c…
05-13 07:24:28	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Down	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0x199258…
05-13 07:23:17	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Down	BUY	11	93¢	$10	0x88abf7…
05-13 07:19:10	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Down	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0xa5b32f…
05-13 07:09:15	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Up	BUY	52	10¢	$5	0xedb7de…
05-13 07:05:03	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Down	BUY	26	95¢	$25	0xef8448…
05-13 06:38:27	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Up	BUY	11	95¢	$10	0x826dd9…
05-13 06:14:21	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	Up	BUY	103	97¢	$100	0x6f54be…
05-13 04:29:48	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	Down	BUY	11	93¢	$10	0x2edfec…
05-13 03:54:07	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	Down	BUY	102	98¢	$100	0x5d5bc5…
05-13 03:39:39	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	Up	BUY	202	99¢	$200	0xd3e60d…
05-13 03:39:24	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	Up	BUY	11	89¢	$10	0x1fd277…
05-13 03:24:40	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Up	BUY	505	99¢	$500	0xa0a482…
05-13 03:24:29	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Up	BUY	103	97¢	$100	0xc090ac…
05-13 03:14:54	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Down	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0x5316ca…
05-13 03:04:38	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Up	BUY	505	99¢	$500	0x75d382…
05-13 03:04:18	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Up	BUY	106	94¢	$100	0xe2e972…
05-13 02:59:49	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Up	BUY	412	97¢	$400	0x8539e6…
05-13 02:59:17	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Up	BUY	103	97¢	$100	0x9b1b8b…
05-13 02:19:39	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Down	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0x915f4c…
05-13 02:19:22	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Up	SELL	14	4¢	$1	0xb61591…
05-13 02:17:47	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Down	BUY	21	49¢	$10	0x2604fe…
05-13 02:15:55	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Up	BUY	14	74¢	$10	0x56cfcb…
05-13 02:09:14	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	Up	BUY	51	99¢	$50	0xe931fe…
05-13 02:09:04	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	Up	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0xe7df05…
05-13 02:04:43	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Down	BUY	74	99¢	$73	0x6dff66…
05-13 02:04:33	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Down	BUY	11	94¢	$10	0x838511…
05-13 01:59:51	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Down	BUY	102	98¢	$100	0x0632ba…
05-13 01:58:58	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Down	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0xab0cfe…
05-13 01:54:45	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Down	BUY	202	99¢	$200	0x24cbd6…
05-13 01:54:31	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Down	BUY	106	94¢	$100	0x0b01d9…
05-13 01:54:25	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Down	BUY	11	92¢	$10	0xceadc6…
05-13 01:49:58	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Up	BUY	105	95¢	$100	0x216764…
05-13 01:49:51	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Up	BUY	11	90¢	$10	0x5c4ea5…
05-13 01:39:56	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Down	BUY	506	99¢	$500	0xcfa18a…
05-13 01:39:31	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Down	BUY	106	94¢	$100	0x424f9f…
05-13 01:39:00	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Down	BUY	11	92¢	$10	0x24d8fa…
05-13 01:34:51	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	Up	BUY	102	98¢	$100	0xb3c0df…
05-13 01:34:46	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	Up	BUY	102	98¢	$100	0xf3b5fd…
05-13 01:34:21	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	Up	BUY	28	88¢	$25	0x010a8b…
05-13 01:29:12	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Up	BUY	105	95¢	$100	0xfd51f6…
05-13 01:28:37	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Up	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0x5d6dd1…
05-13 01:24:00	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Up	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0x1f07e7…
05-13 01:13:02	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x0035f1…
05-13 00:44:11	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Down	BUY	102	98¢	$100	0x124bb4…
05-13 00:39:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Up	BUY	505	99¢	$500	0x2f9348…
05-13 00:39:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Up	BUY	103	97¢	$100	0x5600e6…
05-13 00:39:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xe37594…
05-12 14:19:58	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Up	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0x5598ff…
05-12 14:14:50	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Up	BUY	404	99¢	$400	0xbd9c4f…
05-12 14:14:29	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Up	BUY	102	98¢	$100	0xef19c5…
05-12 14:09:42	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Up	BUY	102	98¢	$100	0xcddf2e…
05-12 14:09:35	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Up	BUY	26	96¢	$25	0x7d48cc…
05-12 14:09:30	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Up	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x36a285…
05-12 14:02:23	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Up	BUY	21	95¢	$20	0x793d38…
05-12 13:49:36	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Down	BUY	505	99¢	$500	0xbff384…
05-12 13:44:44	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Down	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x2c6035…
05-12 13:39:57	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Up	BUY	126	87¢	$110	0xf1d379…
05-12 11:24:07	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Up	BUY	204	98¢	$200	0xafcd79…
05-12 10:29:42	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Down	BUY	505	99¢	$500	0x36edc6…
05-12 10:19:48	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Up	BUY	505	99¢	$500	0x9bbdf8…
05-12 10:19:40	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Up	BUY	102	98¢	$100	0xd86db9…
05-12 10:19:27	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Up	BUY	11	88¢	$10	0x887b62…
05-12 10:09:38	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Up	BUY	505	99¢	$500	0x5520fc…
05-12 10:09:11	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Up	BUY	505	99¢	$500	0x996eb1…
05-12 10:04:40	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Down	BUY	102	98¢	$100	0xe67efd…
05-12 10:04:33	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Down	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x272b7c…
05-12 10:04:24	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Down	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0xd4cf22…