Messy-Handicap — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$181

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

16.6%

Resolved

Trades

210

lifetime

Volume

$11.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$56

Open exposure

$32

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-18

last 06-18 08:52

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Politics

58% 33% +$188

Other

38% — —

Tech

2% — —

Crypto

2% — —

Sports

0% 0% $-7

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

21 active days in 12wk • peak 19 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	Yes		+250	$18	7¢	$18	$-0	05-30 09:14
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?	No		-15	$-15	97¢	$-15	+$0	05-30 13:43

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	6	$1.6K	830	830	+0	open	—	04-10 08:12
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	4	$1.0K	520	520	+0	open	—	04-10 05:17
jd vance diplomatic meeting with iran by april 10	8	$1.0K	680	680	+0	open	—	04-10 02:37
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	5	$1.0K	620	620	+0	open	—	04-22 12:22
Trump out as President by April 30?	2	$1.0K	510	510	+0	open	—	04-18 05:49
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	5	$940	477	477	+0	open	—	04-30 11:50
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	2	$769	400	400	+0	No	$-5	05-10 13:51
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 7th 659	4	$388	200	200	+0	open	—	04-02 11:45
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	4	$338	200	200	+0	open	—	04-06 06:05
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	6	$257	1,200	1,200	+0	open	—	05-19 13:54
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	6	$208	105	105	+0	open	—	03-30 06:07
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	6	$202	102	102	+0	open	—	05-10 09:39
will trump visit china by march 31	6	$200	101	101	+0	open	—	03-30 06:07
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	2	$195	100	100	+0	No	+$0	05-08 13:43
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026?	4	$195	100	100	+0	open	—	05-19 15:14
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	1	$193	0	200	-200	Yes	+$193	05-08 13:42
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	2	$193	100	100	+0	open	—	04-02 11:45
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	2	$139	71	71	+0	open	—	04-02 11:45
will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	6	$130	65	65	+0	open	—	03-25 16:45
russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	2	$94	47	47	+0	open	—	03-30 02:05
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	2	$90	45	45	+0	open	—	03-27 12:52
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $380 in May?	3	$80	75	75	+0	open	—	05-26 07:45
will crude oil cl hit low 75 by end of march 644 777 281 682 546 253	9	$76	59	65	-6	open	—	03-12 15:49
will ethereum reach 4000 in march 2026	2	$70	35	35	+0	open	—	03-27 12:53
will the fed decrease interest rates by 50 bps after the march 2026 meeting	2	$70	35	35	+0	open	—	03-10 18:28
EdgeX FDV above $10B one day after launch?	2	$61	31	31	+0	open	—	03-10 18:28
will gold gc settle over 7000 on the final trading day of march 2026	2	$60	30	30	+0	open	—	03-28 13:26
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15?	4	$58	51	51	+0	open	—	05-13 14:41
andrew tate of tweets march 6 march 13 2026 100 129	3	$56	50	50	+0	open	—	03-10 18:32
will apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 336	2	$56	28	28	+0	open	—	03-25 16:45

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-18 08:52:47	will the announcers say ankle during the mexico vs south korea fifa world cup match 20260616192751362	No	SELL	20	59¢	$12	0xb55e5a…
06-18 08:46:26	will the announcers say ankle during the mexico vs south korea fifa world cup match 20260616192751362	No	BUY	20	71¢	$14	0x61ffd6…
06-09 11:08:52	will drake have 3 albums in the billboard 200 top 10 20260602162056895	Yes	BUY	91	1¢	$1	0xbd903a…
06-09 11:08:30	will drake have 3 albums in the billboard 200 top 10 20260602162056895	Yes	BUY	809	1¢	$6	0x94f659…
06-07 23:14:28	iran closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	560	0¢	$3	0x1ff1cc…
06-07 22:26:33	iran closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	202	2¢	$5	0xc02e48…
06-07 21:30:22	iran closes its airspace by june 8	No	SELL	291	4¢	$12	0x701976…
06-07 21:12:18	iran closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	291	6¢	$18	0x99b7f4…
05-30 13:43:05	Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?	No	SELL	15	97¢	$15	0xaeb832…
05-30 09:14:58	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	Yes	BUY	250	7¢	$18	0x7d75a8…
05-30 09:11:52	Will Russia capture Viroliubivka by December 31?	No	SELL	20	51¢	$10	0x10caf8…
05-30 09:10:02	Will Russia capture Viroliubivka by December 31?	No	BUY	20	72¢	$14	0xc05b22…
05-30 09:06:34	Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in June 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	82¢	$16	0xa2f7f7…
05-30 09:06:16	Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in June 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	82¢	$16	0x4ac2a3…
05-30 08:59:46	Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	20	35¢	$7	0xe42d23…
05-30 08:59:35	Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30?	Yes	SELL	20	71¢	$14	0x47cad2…
05-30 08:51:29	Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	31¢	$6	0x6c71b7…
05-30 08:49:30	Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30?	Yes	BUY	20	71¢	$14	0xdcb9b4…
05-30 08:47:45	Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7?	Yes	SELL	20	17¢	$3	0x3ab54a…
05-30 08:43:28	Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7?	Yes	BUY	20	17¢	$3	0xa8a60f…
05-30 08:33:15	Will Alien arrests in New York hit 4900+ by June 30?	No	SELL	20	82¢	$16	0x32d667…
05-30 08:31:16	Will Alien arrests in New York hit 4900+ by June 30?	No	BUY	20	83¢	$17	0xd5bf8e…
05-30 08:29:29	Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June?	No	SELL	20	70¢	$14	0x39f323…
05-30 08:27:39	Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June?	No	BUY	20	71¢	$14	0x1beb8f…
05-30 08:04:09	Will Trump meet with Giorgia Meloni in June 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	81¢	$16	0x071160…
05-30 08:03:41	Will Trump meet with Giorgia Meloni in June 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0x2ce84c…
05-30 07:52:39	Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	43¢	$9	0x1c5560…
05-26 07:46:44	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $450 in May?	Yes	SELL	69	39¢	$27	0x36ac50…
05-26 07:45:26	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $380 in May?	Yes	SELL	75	52¢	$39	0x7ae886…
05-26 07:45:15	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $450 in May?	Yes	BUY	69	39¢	$27	0x6839e1…
05-26 07:42:46	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $380 in May?	Yes	BUY	25	55¢	$14	0x56afd5…
05-26 07:37:07	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $380 in May?	Yes	BUY	50	55¢	$28	0xce0ce6…
05-25 13:26:40	Netanyahu out by May 31?	No	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0x0ed5de…
05-25 13:26:27	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	SELL	23	100¢	$23	0xb6b1a3…
05-21 01:52:31	Trump kiss by May 31?	Yes	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0x493cef…
05-20 08:16:44	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $375 in May?	Yes	SELL	50	19¢	$10	0xb6dc9d…
05-20 08:14:37	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $375 in May?	Yes	BUY	50	21¢	$11	0x3907a3…
05-20 08:08:22	Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $180 in May?	Yes	SELL	44	57¢	$25	0x53ee82…
05-20 08:06:41	Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $180 in May?	Yes	BUY	4	58¢	$3	0x4df52e…
05-20 08:06:39	Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $180 in May?	Yes	BUY	39	58¢	$23	0x4aa16f…
05-20 05:44:14	Netanyahu out by May 31?	No	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0xb4fa40…
05-20 04:50:09	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	23	99¢	$23	0xb0fad3…
05-20 03:37:23	Trump kiss by May 31?	Yes	BUY	14	95¢	$13	0xe16d46…
05-20 03:12:44	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	125	1¢	$1	0x6d5b0d…
05-20 03:12:35	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	143	1¢	$1	0x9a6dc6…
05-20 03:12:23	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	125	1¢	$1	0x9ce4ca…
05-19 15:14:04	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	78	98¢	$77	0xf040e3…
05-19 14:31:40	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	20	98¢	$20	0x92d654…
05-19 14:03:45	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xb1b273…
05-19 13:54:07	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	No	SELL	100	99¢	$99	0x14a7b3…
05-19 13:01:30	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x8123c0…
05-19 13:01:29	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	No	BUY	72	99¢	$71	0x8808dc…
05-19 13:00:57	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	No	BUY	26	99¢	$26	0x9c77b4…
05-19 12:44:58	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0x44bf9f…
05-13 14:41:08	Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15?	No	SELL	1	56¢	$1	0x7f19c0…
05-13 14:32:00	Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15?	No	BUY	1	56¢	$1	0xf546ff…
05-13 14:09:43	Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15?	No	SELL	50	55¢	$28	0x224e8a…
05-13 10:06:19	Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15?	No	BUY	50	57¢	$28	0x1dd0f0…
05-10 13:51:28	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	No	SELL	400	96¢	$382	0x9a8afe…
05-10 12:25:29	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	No	BUY	400	97¢	$387	0xfd5bc9…
05-10 10:16:04	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	Yes	SELL	1,100	3¢	$30	0xda780e…
05-10 09:39:59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	SELL	102	99¢	$101	0x4419b5…
05-10 09:38:14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x766cf1…
05-10 09:38:14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x6c54e1…
05-10 09:33:27	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1,100	3¢	$30	0x3146b6…
05-10 09:32:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	51	99¢	$50	0x213c98…
05-10 09:32:49	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	21	99¢	$21	0x029526…
05-10 09:32:47	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	27	99¢	$27	0x47d540…
05-08 13:43:23	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	SELL	100	98¢	$98	0x086942…
05-08 13:42:55	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	200	97¢	$193	0xf06337…
05-08 13:41:42	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0xee0539…
05-06 18:56:56	76ers vs. Knicks	76ers	BUY	24	21¢	$5	0x406ab7…
04-30 11:50:30	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	470	98¢	$463	0x4a30f4…
04-30 11:14:24	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	346	98¢	$340	0x004749…
04-30 11:01:28	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	124	98¢	$123	0xd387ee…
04-29 17:23:08	Will Powell say "Iran" during April press conference?	Yes	SELL	4	17¢	$1	0x6c7a99…
04-29 17:08:16	Will Powell say "Iran" during April press conference?	Yes	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0xd89ae9…
04-29 16:58:16	Will Powell say "Pandemic" during April press conference?	No	BUY	8	27¢	$2	0xaedb58…
04-29 16:57:58	Will Powell say "Oil" during April press conference?	No	BUY	27	6¢	$2	0x527d45…
04-29 16:57:50	Will Powell say "Middle East" during April press conference?	No	BUY	14	16¢	$2	0x8a1bca…
04-29 16:57:22	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	7	98¢	$7	0xc1f9d7…
04-29 16:22:26	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	7	98¢	$7	0x1a3806…
04-23 08:43:56	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	BUY	80	2¢	$2	0x107ee2…
04-22 12:22:02	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	No	SELL	10	77¢	$8	0xaecf33…
04-22 12:20:54	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	No	BUY	10	79¢	$8	0x318257…
04-22 11:50:14	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	No	SELL	159	84¢	$133	0x3fe866…
04-22 10:56:02	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	No	SELL	451	80¢	$361	0x9a6af5…
04-22 10:49:54	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	No	BUY	610	84¢	$512	0x1bf994…
04-18 05:49:54	Trump out as President by April 30?	No	SELL	510	99¢	$507	0x38fbec…
04-18 05:13:52	Trump out as President by April 30?	No	BUY	510	100¢	$507	0x46081d…
04-18 04:18:16	donald trump of truth social posts april 14 april 21 140 159	Yes	BUY	13	36¢	$5	0x6585a6…
04-10 08:12:03	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	530	97¢	$515	0x628156…
04-10 06:12:31	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	529	98¢	$518	0xf14842…
04-10 06:10:17	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x5251e7…
04-10 05:17:45	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	520	99¢	$514	0x10eb03…
04-10 05:15:57	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	171	99¢	$170	0x353bc9…
04-10 05:11:41	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	111	99¢	$110	0x729a16…
04-10 05:08:11	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	238	99¢	$236	0x1394ba…
04-10 02:37:49	jd vance diplomatic meeting with iran by april 10	No	SELL	288	75¢	$216	0x3dffbf…
04-10 02:37:09	jd vance diplomatic meeting with iran by april 10	No	SELL	3	77¢	$2	0x8ae9ad…