Messy-Handicap — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$181

Unrealized P&L

-$3

Hit rate

16.6%

Resolved

Trades

243

lifetime

Volume

$12.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$50

Open exposure

$29

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-18

last 07-07 10:27

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Politics

56% 33% +$188

Other

37% — —

Tech

3% — —

Sports

2% 0% $-7

Crypto

2% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

21 active days in 12wk • peak 19 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	Yes		+250	$18	6¢	$15	$-3	05-30 09:14
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?	No		-15	$-15	97¢	$-15	$-0	05-30 13:43

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	6	$1.6K	830	830	+0	open	—	04-10 08:12
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	4	$1.0K	520	520	+0	open	—	04-10 05:17
jd vance diplomatic meeting with iran by april 10	8	$1.0K	680	680	+0	open	—	04-10 02:37
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	5	$1.0K	620	620	+0	open	—	04-22 12:22
Trump out as President by April 30?	2	$1.0K	510	510	+0	open	—	04-18 05:49
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	5	$940	477	477	+0	open	—	04-30 11:50
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	2	$769	400	400	+0	No	$-5	05-10 13:51
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 7th 659	4	$388	200	200	+0	open	—	04-02 11:45
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	4	$338	200	200	+0	open	—	04-06 06:05
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	6	$257	1,200	1,200	+0	open	—	05-19 13:54
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	6	$208	105	105	+0	open	—	03-30 06:07
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	6	$202	102	102	+0	open	—	05-10 09:39
will trump visit china by march 31	6	$200	101	101	+0	open	—	03-30 06:07
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	2	$195	100	100	+0	No	+$0	05-08 13:43
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026?	4	$195	100	100	+0	open	—	05-19 15:14
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	1	$193	0	200	-200	Yes	+$193	05-08 13:42
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	2	$193	100	100	+0	open	—	04-02 11:45
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	2	$139	71	71	+0	open	—	04-02 11:45
will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	6	$130	65	65	+0	open	—	03-25 16:45
gpt 5pt6 released by july 7 2026	6	$105	109	109	+0	open	—	07-07 10:12
russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	2	$94	47	47	+0	open	—	03-30 02:05
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	2	$90	45	45	+0	open	—	03-27 12:52
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $380 in May?	3	$80	75	75	+0	open	—	05-26 07:45
will crude oil cl hit low 75 by end of march 644 777 281 682 546 253	9	$76	59	65	-6	open	—	03-12 15:49
will ethereum reach 4000 in march 2026	2	$70	35	35	+0	open	—	03-27 12:53
will the fed decrease interest rates by 50 bps after the march 2026 meeting	2	$70	35	35	+0	open	—	03-10 18:28
EdgeX FDV above $10B one day after launch?	2	$61	31	31	+0	open	—	03-10 18:28
will gold gc settle over 7000 on the final trading day of march 2026	2	$60	30	30	+0	open	—	03-28 13:26
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15?	4	$58	51	51	+0	open	—	05-13 14:41
andrew tate of tweets march 6 march 13 2026 100 129	3	$56	50	50	+0	open	—	03-10 18:32

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-07 10:27:22	will the announcers say goal 60 times during the argentina vs egypt fifa world cup match 20260706213505711	Yes	SELL	20	49¢	$10	0xf8a8dc…
07-07 10:27:04	will the announcers say goal 60 times during the argentina vs egypt fifa world cup match 20260706213505711	Yes	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x978950…
07-07 10:12:40	gpt 5pt6 released by july 7 2026	No	SELL	50	93¢	$46	0xec435c…
07-07 10:12:16	gpt 5pt6 released by july 7 2026	No	BUY	50	94¢	$47	0x928929…
07-06 01:31:25	will the announcers say upset during the mexico vs england fifa world cup match 20260705031113093	No	SELL	5	65¢	$3	0xe4a97a…
07-05 14:42:31	gpt 5pt6 released by july 7 2026	Yes	SELL	50	8¢	$4	0xf5b010…
07-05 14:40:55	gpt 5pt6 released by july 7 2026	Yes	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0xd6e7ba…
07-05 14:40:52	will the announcers say messi during the brazil vs norway fifa world cup match 20260705030913614	No	SELL	20	25¢	$5	0xd6af42…
07-05 14:38:59	will the announcers say messi during the brazil vs norway fifa world cup match 20260705030913614	No	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0xba6acf…
07-05 14:26:29	will the announcers say penalty shootout during the mexico vs england fifa world cup match 20260705031113105	No	SELL	1	24¢	$0	0x50853e…
07-05 14:24:14	will the announcers say penalty shootout during the mexico vs england fifa world cup match 20260705031113105	No	BUY	1	24¢	$0	0x9ce236…
07-05 14:23:22	will the announcers say upset during the mexico vs england fifa world cup match 20260705031113093	No	BUY	20	65¢	$13	0xcedb3d…
07-05 14:18:53	gpt 5pt6 released by july 7 2026	Yes	SELL	9	10¢	$1	0xdacbff…
07-05 14:18:38	gpt 5pt6 released by july 7 2026	Yes	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0xff4749…
07-05 14:00:10	england mexico game rescheduled to different time 20260703205906835	No	SELL	10	66¢	$7	0x5dc33b…
07-05 13:59:43	england mexico game rescheduled to different time 20260703205906835	No	BUY	10	66¢	$7	0xf34c82…
06-24 08:54:26	will the announcers say what a save during the ecuador vs germany fifa world cup match 20260623170859859	Yes	SELL	19	30¢	$6	0x50c61b…
06-24 08:54:17	will the announcers say what a save during the scotland vs brazil fifa world cup match 20260623164947272	No	SELL	20	64¢	$13	0x663f61…
06-24 08:54:07	will the announcers say messi during the scotland vs brazil fifa world cup match 20260623164947278	Yes	SELL	20	68¢	$14	0xe9f371…
06-24 08:53:58	will the announcers say handball during the south africa vs south korea fifa world cup match 20260623170033318	Yes	SELL	20	64¢	$13	0x0657ec…
06-24 08:53:43	will the announcers say messi during the scotland vs brazil fifa world cup match 20260623164947278	Yes	BUY	20	69¢	$14	0xac9f65…
06-24 08:46:26	will the announcers say handball during the south africa vs south korea fifa world cup match 20260623170033318	Yes	BUY	20	65¢	$13	0xb299b2…
06-24 08:45:49	will the announcers say what a save during the ecuador vs germany fifa world cup match 20260623170859859	Yes	BUY	19	31¢	$6	0x9ccccf…
06-24 08:45:37	will the announcers say what a save during the scotland vs brazil fifa world cup match 20260623164947272	No	BUY	20	64¢	$13	0x57a92c…
06-24 08:43:23	will the announcers say champion during the czechia vs mexico fifa world cup match 20260623165221723	Yes	SELL	20	62¢	$12	0x1dcd4a…
06-24 08:42:37	will the announcers say champion during the czechia vs mexico fifa world cup match 20260623165221723	Yes	BUY	20	63¢	$13	0x9e6f2a…
06-24 08:41:40	will the announcers say crossbar during the scotland vs brazil fifa world cup match 20260623164947271	No	SELL	20	51¢	$10	0xfd5c09…
06-24 08:41:34	will the announcers say crossbar during the scotland vs brazil fifa world cup match 20260623164947271	No	SELL	0	51¢	$0	0x706893…
06-24 08:40:55	will the announcers say champion during the scotland vs brazil fifa world cup match 20260623164947270	Yes	SELL	20	85¢	$17	0x1e61f3…
06-24 08:40:11	will the announcers say champion during the scotland vs brazil fifa world cup match 20260623164947270	Yes	BUY	20	86¢	$17	0x873645…
06-24 08:40:04	will the announcers say crossbar during the scotland vs brazil fifa world cup match 20260623164947271	No	BUY	20	57¢	$11	0x3e6ac5…
06-24 08:36:52	will the announcers say goal 20 times during the czechia vs mexico fifa world cup match 20260623165221708	No	SELL	20	10¢	$2	0x25a8c7…
06-24 08:35:04	will the announcers say goal 20 times during the czechia vs mexico fifa world cup match 20260623165221708	No	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x48a58c…
06-18 08:52:47	will the announcers say ankle during the mexico vs south korea fifa world cup match 20260616192751362	No	SELL	20	59¢	$12	0xb55e5a…
06-18 08:46:26	will the announcers say ankle during the mexico vs south korea fifa world cup match 20260616192751362	No	BUY	20	71¢	$14	0x61ffd6…
06-09 11:08:52	will drake have 3 albums in the billboard 200 top 10 20260602162056895	Yes	BUY	91	1¢	$1	0xbd903a…
06-09 11:08:30	will drake have 3 albums in the billboard 200 top 10 20260602162056895	Yes	BUY	809	1¢	$6	0x94f659…
06-07 23:14:28	iran closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	560	0¢	$3	0x1ff1cc…
06-07 22:26:33	iran closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	202	2¢	$5	0xc02e48…
06-07 21:30:22	iran closes its airspace by june 8	No	SELL	291	4¢	$12	0x701976…
06-07 21:12:18	iran closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	291	6¢	$18	0x99b7f4…
05-30 13:43:05	Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?	No	SELL	15	97¢	$15	0xaeb832…
05-30 09:14:58	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	Yes	BUY	250	7¢	$18	0x7d75a8…
05-30 09:11:52	Will Russia capture Viroliubivka by December 31?	No	SELL	20	51¢	$10	0x10caf8…
05-30 09:10:02	Will Russia capture Viroliubivka by December 31?	No	BUY	20	72¢	$14	0xc05b22…
05-30 09:06:34	Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in June 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	82¢	$16	0xa2f7f7…
05-30 09:06:16	Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in June 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	82¢	$16	0x4ac2a3…
05-30 08:59:46	Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	20	35¢	$7	0xe42d23…
05-30 08:59:35	Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30?	Yes	SELL	20	71¢	$14	0x47cad2…
05-30 08:51:29	Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	31¢	$6	0x6c71b7…
05-30 08:49:30	Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30?	Yes	BUY	20	71¢	$14	0xdcb9b4…
05-30 08:47:45	Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7?	Yes	SELL	20	17¢	$3	0x3ab54a…
05-30 08:43:28	Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7?	Yes	BUY	20	17¢	$3	0xa8a60f…
05-30 08:33:15	Will Alien arrests in New York hit 4900+ by June 30?	No	SELL	20	82¢	$16	0x32d667…
05-30 08:31:16	Will Alien arrests in New York hit 4900+ by June 30?	No	BUY	20	83¢	$17	0xd5bf8e…
05-30 08:29:29	Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June?	No	SELL	20	70¢	$14	0x39f323…
05-30 08:27:39	Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June?	No	BUY	20	71¢	$14	0x1beb8f…
05-30 08:04:09	Will Trump meet with Giorgia Meloni in June 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	81¢	$16	0x071160…
05-30 08:03:41	Will Trump meet with Giorgia Meloni in June 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0x2ce84c…
05-30 07:52:39	Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	43¢	$9	0x1c5560…
05-26 07:46:44	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $450 in May?	Yes	SELL	69	39¢	$27	0x36ac50…
05-26 07:45:26	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $380 in May?	Yes	SELL	75	52¢	$39	0x7ae886…
05-26 07:45:15	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $450 in May?	Yes	BUY	69	39¢	$27	0x6839e1…
05-26 07:42:46	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $380 in May?	Yes	BUY	25	55¢	$14	0x56afd5…
05-26 07:37:07	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $380 in May?	Yes	BUY	50	55¢	$28	0xce0ce6…
05-25 13:26:40	Netanyahu out by May 31?	No	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0x0ed5de…
05-25 13:26:27	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	SELL	23	100¢	$23	0xb6b1a3…
05-21 01:52:31	Trump kiss by May 31?	Yes	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0x493cef…
05-20 08:16:44	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $375 in May?	Yes	SELL	50	19¢	$10	0xb6dc9d…
05-20 08:14:37	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $375 in May?	Yes	BUY	50	21¢	$11	0x3907a3…
05-20 08:08:22	Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $180 in May?	Yes	SELL	44	57¢	$25	0x53ee82…
05-20 08:06:41	Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $180 in May?	Yes	BUY	4	58¢	$3	0x4df52e…
05-20 08:06:39	Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $180 in May?	Yes	BUY	39	58¢	$23	0x4aa16f…
05-20 05:44:14	Netanyahu out by May 31?	No	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0xb4fa40…
05-20 04:50:09	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	23	99¢	$23	0xb0fad3…
05-20 03:37:23	Trump kiss by May 31?	Yes	BUY	14	95¢	$13	0xe16d46…
05-20 03:12:44	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	125	1¢	$1	0x6d5b0d…
05-20 03:12:35	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	143	1¢	$1	0x9a6dc6…
05-20 03:12:23	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	125	1¢	$1	0x9ce4ca…
05-19 15:14:04	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	78	98¢	$77	0xf040e3…
05-19 14:31:40	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	20	98¢	$20	0x92d654…
05-19 14:03:45	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xb1b273…
05-19 13:54:07	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	No	SELL	100	99¢	$99	0x14a7b3…
05-19 13:01:30	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x8123c0…
05-19 13:01:29	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	No	BUY	72	99¢	$71	0x8808dc…
05-19 13:00:57	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	No	BUY	26	99¢	$26	0x9c77b4…
05-19 12:44:58	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0x44bf9f…
05-13 14:41:08	Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15?	No	SELL	1	56¢	$1	0x7f19c0…
05-13 14:32:00	Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15?	No	BUY	1	56¢	$1	0xf546ff…
05-13 14:09:43	Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15?	No	SELL	50	55¢	$28	0x224e8a…
05-13 10:06:19	Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15?	No	BUY	50	57¢	$28	0x1dd0f0…
05-10 13:51:28	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	No	SELL	400	96¢	$382	0x9a8afe…
05-10 12:25:29	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	No	BUY	400	97¢	$387	0xfd5bc9…
05-10 10:16:04	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	Yes	SELL	1,100	3¢	$30	0xda780e…
05-10 09:39:59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	SELL	102	99¢	$101	0x4419b5…
05-10 09:38:14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x766cf1…
05-10 09:38:14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x6c54e1…
05-10 09:33:27	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1,100	3¢	$30	0x3146b6…
05-10 09:32:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	51	99¢	$50	0x213c98…
05-10 09:32:49	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	21	99¢	$21	0x029526…